The Mid-Cycle Man – Thesis: Year-End 2019 Outlook

Published on
November 14th, 2019
Duration
33 minutes

The Mid-Cycle Man – Thesis: Year-End 2019 Outlook

Featuring Danielle DiMartino Booth

Published on: November 14th, 2019 • Duration: 33 minutes

In the inaugural Real Vision Access live event, former Fed insider Danielle DiMartino Booth joins Ed Harrison to talk about the economic cycle, Fed policy, and the risk for recession. DiMartino Booth is the CEO and chief strategist at Quill Intelligence LLC and the author of “FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America.” At the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, DiMartino Booth worked as an advisor to President Richard Fisher through the 2008 financial crisis — so she has an uncommonly inside perspective on how central bankers think about economic data in the context of their policy response. She frequently appears on major financial media outlets and is a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View. DiMartino Booth will discuss where we are in the economic cycle, and what the Fed policy response will be to new data. She will outline the real economic indicators she uses to make her judgments. How high is the risk for recession? Will the Fed be forced to lower interest rates again? DiMartino Booth and Harrison will break down all of that and more!

Comments

Transcript

  • CL
    Chris L.
    24 November 2019 @ 07:28
    Meh. I trialed back in 2016 and enjoyed the product. Unique content and big players. I then subscribed and became increasingly bored with the material. I know go weeks without logging in. I know RV had issues with Think Tank, but WTF is this access stuff? Yay, I get to ask a question. This couldn't be rolled into the TV portion? I literally interact with these people weekly on Twitter. And it's become an eco chamber. The same 12-15 people on rotation. I could not listen to DDM, Mike Lebowitz etc for months and could still know what they're thinking. I have no problem letting these subscriptions run its course.
    • CG
      Christian G.
      1 January 2020 @ 00:20
      If macroeconomic data were volatile enough to satisfy your boredom, we'd be living in ruin.
  • ZY
    ZHENG Y.
    19 December 2019 @ 08:54
    I do miss the Think Tank format. Reading report is more flexible for me when I was free. For interaction part, is not my need. I think the content can do better like the free podcast like years ago and I won't mind to pay for that kind of podcast back then and now. Cheer.
  • TO
    Toby O.
    19 November 2019 @ 20:42
    Raoul, I suspect that the issue with TT -lousy renewals- wasn’t a content issue. Rather it felt in-cohesive. There didn’t seem to be any rhyme or reason around when we’d get certain Contributor’s content (ex. I think it’s been years since Steph Pomboy provided her work.) It seemed Compass and JTD was an attempt to provide some consistency or coherency; but, the real value was having access to a smattering of folks research & newsletters, especially those that aren’t otherwise available to us (Paul Hodge’s The pH Report runs $10k per year (which is out of most retail investor’s budget), 13-D is not available except to institutional investors, etc). My point, week to week, month to month, subscribers never knew what contributors’ research/newsletter would be available. (Perhaps another issue was that TT relied on the generosity of those contributors to make their work available to us.) Two final thoughts: Aside from being similar to RV TV, the “Access” platform already exists via Periscope, and folks like Luke Gromen are already doing this sort of thing as a part of their business offerings. IMHO, a Q&A forum where subscribers ask (or pre-ask) questions of experts definitely offers value. Frankly though, Ed, Justine, Tony, you, Grant are already asking fantastic questions on our behalf on RV TV. A weekly segment might be a bit much (plus logistically challenging). Perhaps a quarterly (or monthly) event, with a round table of guests fielding questions around an issue or topic would be better subscribed. I hope Access continues to offer us contributor’s research and newsletters. Thanks, Toby
    • NC
      Nika C.
      21 November 2019 @ 12:10
      Quote: "I hope Access continues to offer us contributor’s research and newsletters." I fully agree with this. The current format seems too similar to Real Vision. Please bring back reports as well.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      1 December 2019 @ 09:26
      I loved TT. Got as much out of it as I do from MI.
    • SO
      Shads O.
      16 December 2019 @ 03:49
      Agreed
  • lD
    lance D.
    20 November 2019 @ 16:56
    Think tank was good but geeeee there was a lot of reports that quickly built up......i don't mind reading but for me it was too overwhelming .... i like the way this access looks to be shaping up . nice 1 rv
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      4 December 2019 @ 16:09
      I agree, but I do miss Pinecone Macro.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    1 December 2019 @ 09:23
    Good interview, but where’s my ThinkTank?
  • NC
    Nika C.
    21 November 2019 @ 12:33
    While I appreciate your concern that the number of subscribers was dropping off, I much preferred the Think Tank format. I downloaded the reports and then read them in my free time. On many occasions I got invaluable insights. True there was insufficient cohesion and there were inconsistencies, but the current format is simply too similar to Real Vision TV. Therefore, IMHO, it simply cannot be considered as a logical replacement of the TT. Of course, Mrs. DiMartino Booth is great (my complaint has nothing to do with her) but one can catch interviews with her on Real Vision or other podcasts regularly enough. Could you please provide additional information about how you plan to upgrade the service? It seems rather expensive to pay for 4 monthly interviews (insights), regardless of how illustrious the guest list is. Maybe a regular “Macro Show” type of content (as was already mentioned below I think) would suit much better. At least for me.
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      21 November 2019 @ 14:43
      It takes a couple of weeks for a product to fine tune itself. And this fine tuning doesn’t come out of the blue, it’s a process that involves team and community effort. So does this sound like a middle management sales man speaking? It might be. We know from surveys we took, data we have and general feel that reports while highly appreciate by part of the community, weren’t enough to keep people renewing and it was especially hard to bring in new users. We are a small company that’s still breaking from the startup phase. We can’t afford to have products in our lineup that don’t have a perspective of being profitable. So armed with the above three (survey, data and feel) we decided to transition Think Tank from a written research platform to a much more engaging one featuring live talks and questions (live during the talk and beforehand), recording and transcripts, research from the guests that come on board plus other features on the pipeline like even more ways to engage with the RV community as we all know comments are as good as the videos. We also know that these reports were used to give you a more holistic view of the finance world so that’s what the talks want to achieve. Realistically, if these talks make you money, protect your investments or give you the courage to follow new routes then part of our objective is complete. So all in all, let me know what you think about Access and the things we can implement to make it better via a private message.
    • CL
      Chris L.
      24 November 2019 @ 08:00
      I mean, Milton can say what he wants but this has been the problem with real vision for a while. And I've seen this complaint on quality and uniqueness for a long time.
  • GH
    Gary H.
    21 November 2019 @ 15:06
    Not sure how this is much different than RV TV. Much preferred written reports. Guess I will cancel this portion of the service and leave it for others who find value
    • CL
      Chris L.
      24 November 2019 @ 07:59
      Totally agree. All came down to price point. TV is cheaper. And look at the price points of the higher quality reports v what we've been getting for the last 1-2 years. JD research base cost per subscriber is 15,000/yrs. Variant Perception is higher. On the other hand, what you're getting now is specifically designed for "retail" traders where a subscription isn't $5k/qtr but $25/month.
  • CB
    Charles B.
    22 November 2019 @ 19:22
    Here is how you could make this service worthwhile. Continuity. The guest speaker outlines just 1 of her current trades. And if anything about that trade changes in the future we get an immediate update on what she is doing in response to that, before she makes her trade. Not her whole book, just 1 trade. It would be good for your guest as well as subscribers, because this would give subscribers a better idea of whether they would like to subscribe to the guest's service. I am always in search of a new newsletter to subscribe to. I am deeply indebted to RV for finding me one of my favorite subscriptions - The Felder Report. And I hope I can find others in the future.
  • JM
    Jim M.
    21 November 2019 @ 19:49
    With this change you are giving us "live talks and questions (live during the talk and beforehand), recording and transcripts, research from the guests that come on board..." What's gone is "a constant flow of actionable research that has been designed specifically to help (us) generate better actionable trade ideas."
  • RM
    Ron M.
    18 November 2019 @ 12:42
    First off, I joined Think Tank for content I would never have been able to afford or gain access to. Quite frankly, the interview was great, however, I just listened to DD Booth on the pod cast Macrovoices for a full hour. By the way, it was free of charge. Most of these people can be found from time to time on various podcasts free. RealVision is not offering any new content with this added channel. Keep in mind, the readers of Think Tank are mostly retail, and, cannot afford institutional writings. Which is why I joined. These writing helped frame my macro view and offered investment ideas to look into. Think Tank also offered four writings a week on various topics. One 30 minute interview barely scratches the surface of the content that was supplied on Think Tank in a typical week. Access is almost exactly what the real vision channel is, the only difference being some viewer questions are asked. Like most subscribers I work and cannot take the time off in the middle of the day. Disappointed.
    • DJ
      Dušan J.
      18 November 2019 @ 13:23
      agree, same problems
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 November 2019 @ 14:44
      We will be adding the speakers research too in due course so you will get interviews where you get to ask the questions (unlike Macro Voices), transcripts, audio files, watch later and there will be PDF of research too from many of the speakers. This will bring more relevancy to the old TT format, more contextualisation, more depth, etc. I hope that helps
    • NC
      Nika C.
      21 November 2019 @ 12:15
      I agree.
  • JC
    Joel C.
    19 November 2019 @ 05:03
    Interesting conversation that I'd like to add a few comments to: - whilst i didn't use TT day in day out, i found it an invaluable resource at the appropriate time. I would drop in, pull a few reports out and digest at my own pace. As others have commented, as a personal, retail investor, there was nowhere better to get access to the thoughts of multiple industry 'experts'; - as i travel a lot it always gave me good plane and hotel room reading!; - this live tv angle just seems a bit too samey to RV > i already get the RV proposition and love it to bits. its the best value tv content out there. this doesn't seem that different and there is way less content. plus the time zones mean i'll likely very rarely watch live anyway... - to me the value proposition to a research compendium seems clear > if sub rates were falling off, perhaps it was for other reasons > not well differentiated, not as well marketed, not as good updates to subscribers? i certainly didnt get the chance to contribute to the conversation; - the change seems very abrupt... one day we log in and TT has gone, poof! no warning, no chance to decide for ourselves if we want to switch or end our sub there and then? - your platform is great. love what you are doing and where you are taking it, but this change seems like a step backwards honestly. of course happy to be proved wrong but bring back TT!
    • av
      aleksandar v.
      19 November 2019 @ 09:03
      I completely agree, and would argue that Access (the concept of which I like) shouldn’t be replacing think tank’s content. Rather, I would prefer having both, separately.
    • NC
      Nika C.
      21 November 2019 @ 12:11
      I agree as well.
  • CB
    Cliff B.
    20 November 2019 @ 12:02
    Please improve the audio quality. It is very difficult if not impossible to listen to this video.
  • GG
    Gary G.
    20 November 2019 @ 04:55
    Please bring back join the dots as well, otherwisen4 interviews/month has a high price tag. I want more from RV Access.
  • CB
    Charles B.
    19 November 2019 @ 20:50
    I would like Real Access to require each talk to culminate with a real trade at the end. I am not bright enough to figure out the trade from a broad based interview. Like someone else mentioned, use Hedgeye's macro show as a model.
  • CB
    Charles B.
    19 November 2019 @ 20:45
    I like the switch to Real Access. I am confident that RV will keep i timely. It has the potential to be more continuous than TT.
  • JM
    Jim M.
    19 November 2019 @ 14:29
    Raoul Very much appreciate your responses here. Before I'm misunderstood, let me say I love everything about RV - everything but this decision to eliminate TT. You've referred to TT as being uneconomical and alluded to the poor renewal rates. Doesn't RON S. explain all of this with his point about indefinite trials?
  • JM
    Jim M.
    18 November 2019 @ 21:05
    Raoul Of course the narratives between pieces varied - we rely on RV to provide us with that very thing. It varied in quality? Who cares - we weren't paying for GMI and therefor weren't expecting your 80 page tour de forces. I apologize but it's very hard for me to see how the renewal rates for TT were the lowest of your three products. Very hard.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      19 November 2019 @ 11:19
      Sadly, a renewals rate less than 50% of any other product and had become entirely unprofitable as the audience dwindled over the, regardless of how many product upgrades we made.
  • SM
    Stephen M.
    18 November 2019 @ 22:38
    Hi, Raoul. Appreciate the reply, genuinely. I think the problem may be that we were already getting this type of content via TV (the in depth, big picture stuff) You guys are the best out there for this, hands down. And what you have done so far is incredible. If you're peeking over at Keiths Macro show with the live Q&A, I think that works so well there because it's 'macro as its happening' sort of stuff. Touching on all the important macro events for the day.....whats happening with commodities, equities, gold, rates, EMs, etc, etc and how its all connected. I think that's what makes it so engaging there. You're well aware of our craving for market news. The macro show is actually quite possibly a televised JTD/Compass. We were getting our 'macro as its happening' fix via TT, I believe. The other in depth stuff via TV is fantastic but separate from quick fix/touch on everything content and as far as I'm aware there's none of that here now. Just my 2cents.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      19 November 2019 @ 11:18
      Thanks. I think it will give unparalleled access to our massive range of guests and it will become very timely, and we will bring in written research from the guests and we will have urgent access updates when big news happens. You've just seen the start...
  • rs
    ron s.
    19 November 2019 @ 08:12
    @raoul There is a SINGLE reason why Think Tank was having the lowest subscription rates amongst RV channels. People could indefinitely use the 14 day TRIAL. There was NO reason to pay for the subscription. 1. RV should have disallowed credit cards to be used on more than 1 account. 2. At the minimum did a email verification via a one time password. 3. Given a 14 day trial but after payment of subscription, with a 14 day money back guarantee. You of-course have the best view in the house with analytics etc
    • TF
      Thomas F.
      19 November 2019 @ 09:29
      I guess they could easily have seen in their data if that would have been a big issue to address...
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      19 November 2019 @ 11:16
      Thanks. I don't think that was the issue but let me look at it.
  • TF
    Thomas F.
    19 November 2019 @ 09:28
    About the video & audio quality: There are (relatively simple) ways you could improve that dramatically and getting rid of the Skype (?) connection glitches. Record the video on both sides, ideally with separate audio and mix it together afterwards. There are a couple of ways to do that, all of them should improve quality dramatically over a recorded live connection.
    • TF
      Thomas F.
      19 November 2019 @ 09:36
      (Obviously that´s for the folks watching the video afterwards)
  • M.
    Milton .. | Founder
    18 November 2019 @ 11:33
    Hey everyone Couple of points that I can address. This is the first ever live talk that we've done. It's simple and it will get a lot of features based on the feedback that you send in to me. We plan on having comments before the live talk starts so subscribers can ask questions and the most voted ones will be shared with the guests, we want multiple time zones to join in so talks over the next couple of months will have different start dates plus other details that already came in as feedback and we're adding them to the roadmap. It's worth keeping in mind that a big majority of our community is located in the US hence the NY morning hours for the first talks. I know some of you are disappointed that Think Tank ceased to exist. Danielle has been very kind and provided us with her October research which you can download here: https://real-vision.intercom-attachments-1.com/i/o/163142286/f8eb48896e8dae04246bcc0d/THE+MID+CYCLE+MAN.pdf Roger, Jeff and all the other Think Tank contributors did an extraordinary job on TT. It was appreciated by part of the community but it needed a change to stay as a reliable and active product of the RV group. With this in mind, please let me know your feedback regarding Access in private so we can have a proper discussion and I can follow up with my team through out the next few months. There are some good suggestions in this comment thread already.
    • JL
      J L.
      18 November 2019 @ 14:00
      It would be good to hear you will be handing out refunds to those not interested, especially since many were on multi year deals for a totally different product, which had actually been the one improving the most recently in my opinion
    • JD
      John D.
      18 November 2019 @ 17:24
      Quick edit to DDB's note: Carl Sagan was a lot of great things, but an astrologer was not one of them (second to last paragraph).
    • av
      aleksandar v.
      19 November 2019 @ 09:30
      Hi Milton! Though Access’ interactive interviews are surely awesome and should draw in more people than Think Tank, there are definitely people (myself included) who were subscribed to TT for the written research by different providers. Yes, the quality of the TT’s publications were varying, and they should be! It’s up to the readers to decide which research (and quality) is suitable to them, and they’ll choose what to read. Maybe you should integrate the content of TT, without really changing anything to it, with the interactive video content of Access. If I would have to choose between TT and A, I would definitely prefer to be able to have various written reports over having additional video content, even though I thoroughly enjoyed DDB’s live feed.
  • SM
    Stephen M.
    18 November 2019 @ 20:12
    There is a fair amount of negative comments with regards to change here. The general consensus (at least here) appears to be that we were happy with TT as it was. What sort of feedback were the founders at RV getting that lead to the change?, if you dont mind me asking
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 November 2019 @ 20:47
      We did a survey and the majority wanted change. Also, it was deemed that the narratives between pieces wasn't cohesive and that it was variable in quality over time. The renewal rate was the lowest of any product we have too so people were voting with their wallets. Of course, many people still love Think Tank but we realised that we needed to upgrade the value proposition.
    • JL
      J L.
      18 November 2019 @ 21:25
      dont remember being asked on this or anything else for years?
  • AP
    Adam P.
    18 November 2019 @ 15:58
    I'm a little concerned about this change. First off, DDB is fantastic. I love her & her research. To be perfectly clear. However, what happens when we have someone on here talking about crypto or PE or some other fad that doesn't REALLY apply to me or my clients? That's a wasted week. Then maybe another one a week or two later? How many wasted weeks do we get before we start reconsidering Access altogether? This is my biggest concern with the change from Think Tank. If we got a Join The Dots / Compass type publication to supplement this format, I would feel a little better about it. We got a strong start with DDB to be sure, but most people aren't her.
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      18 November 2019 @ 16:38
      In the coming weeks we'll have Michael Lebowitz and Jim Bianco. It's a start as good as it comes. Realistically speaking if someone talks about crypto, it won't be the only topic on the table. We have to think that topics that don't interest might very well be interesting for someone else or multiple people. Yes, if multiple weeks of live talks don't stir your interest, then please let me know as we might be doing something work.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 November 2019 @ 20:49
      I think we will add different layers to this over time as we add in research from others. We might add in a join the dots but the reality was that it wasn't engaging people enough versus our other products.
  • JM
    Jim M.
    18 November 2019 @ 19:13
    I already subscribe to a video on demand product called Real Vision. How and why do you unilaterally eliminate/change a paid subscription (Think Tank) of subscribers?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 November 2019 @ 20:48
      The product was sadly dieting on the vine and has become uneconomical. That tells me categorically that we weren't creating a product that was of the quality expected.
  • KW
    Konrad W.
    18 November 2019 @ 11:47
    "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" ... Respect! :)
  • DW
    Dennis W.
    18 November 2019 @ 09:55
    Similar to TV. Can we have Think Tank back?
  • FB
    Fabien B.
    18 November 2019 @ 07:34
    What a desappointing format... I regret Think tank
  • DI
    Dabangg I.
    17 November 2019 @ 00:22
    I feel like we need more bulls to be invited. RV appears to have such an inherent negative or bear bias about market and monitory/fiscal policy esp when it comes to "big names" and "regular speakers". This talk was interesting and the points make sense, and they may even be right, but the repeated message has become a bit tiring. Give other side a chance guys. Get some bull speakers like Yardeni, etc to present their perspective and make sense of why its not all doom and gloom in the current economic/fiscal environment. Bring more diversity of opinions, bring some strong/big bull names in your panels. I know fear sells, but you are here to educate. We are all here to learn. And you guys barely talk about things might just be OK (even if Raoul personally doesnt feel that way).
    • sm
      stefan m.
      18 November 2019 @ 03:35
      A bull / bear debate would be great
  • AG
    AlA G.
    18 November 2019 @ 02:05
    So...this is just another "expert view" series? I don't get it why this is better than Think Tank...
  • AP
    Adam P.
    18 November 2019 @ 00:18
    I miss Think Tank. This is great, but I purchased TT for a reason.
  • SM
    Stephen M.
    17 November 2019 @ 22:51
    Also miss the old Think Tank. The first taste of Access feels too similar to TV. It may prove too difficult for Access to be worth the premium to TV when contributors are essentially saying the same thing on both platforms. I'd be interested to know what % of subscribers managed to catch the live show. I imagine it being difficult with time zones and just setting time aside to catch it live for the Q&A and if you miss this, it is pretty much just TV., no?. With the old Think Tank, being able to read fantastic content and excellent analysis (and it was worth the subscription, imo) at leisure was an advantage. Maybe I just have a preference in which way I learn and retain information but I really enjoyed the reading material Think Tank produced. Is it not possible to combine old/new in some way?. I understand you guys are trying to innovate and allow subscribers access in some way to contributors. I wonder if an RVAccess private twitter account would work? (Subs verified). Maybe as a follow up to videos on Access where subscribers and contributors can converse and ask/answer questions, exchange data, etc. Not even sure if possible, just pondering alternatives to the live Q&A that retains the exclusivity to Acess subscribers.
  • sm
    stefan m.
    16 November 2019 @ 21:43
    sorry guys but i miss the old tink tank already... this kind of information i can find on twitter ( maybe not this deep )... but to generate a actionable trading idea out of that is pretty hard isn't it ? where is the edge ? regards from germany
    • JL
      J L.
      17 November 2019 @ 17:03
      the crowd wants the professor back
  • RA
    Robert A.
    15 November 2019 @ 21:03
    Audio, especially of Ed, was herky jerky—I’m sure Milty and his dummies are on it though. I’ve read Danielle’s “Fed Up” and enjoy her work immensely. Great lead off for the new Access Product!
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      16 November 2019 @ 06:10
      Thanks Robert - Production will get better with each live talk.
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    15 November 2019 @ 21:54
    I follow her work so I didnt actually learn anything new.
  • ND
    Nara D.
    15 November 2019 @ 16:10
    Danielle is GOAT economist! So sharp and I wish she was the head at the institution. I'm so grateful to RV team for insightful and really educational contents. Thank you. And please allow me to comment my thumbs up to the Compass & JTD!!
  • RM
    Richard M.
    15 November 2019 @ 13:47
    Great first session of the new RV Access product! Really enjoyed Ed and Danielle's discussion, and liked being able to ask questions in real time as Danielle brought up topics of interest. Looking forward to seeing how this new video format continues and improves. Keep up the great work RV!
  • YO
    Yoshitaka O.
    15 November 2019 @ 12:35
    MODS OF RV - SUBTITLES PLEASE! Already disadvantaged not being able to join in the live webcast and ask questions due to timezone difference but please at least incorporate captions / subtitles! It will help us follow the conversation better
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      15 November 2019 @ 13:34
      Transcripts will be available and we will try and have talks spread out so our Asia and Oceania friends can join. We'll fine tune the hours.
  • RM
    Rafael M.
    15 November 2019 @ 12:23
    Ed and Danielle always make for a good pairing. Ed asks great questions and Danielle is a treasure trove of knowledge. The format, however, I am not sure was a real improvement over a standard interview. Ed’s picture/audio got garbled from time to time and while there was an effort to take questions from the audience, hard to do much of that in an organized way in 30 minutes. I would have preferred a more focused effort to address audience questions , perhaps, by collecting them a day or two ahead of time and synthesizing them for clarity and relevance.
  • EQ
    Eduardo Q.
    15 November 2019 @ 09:47
    Very insightful... Danielle is amazing, haven´t missed one of her appearances on RV... wounder which inventory indicators does she use?... all those coming from the different FED districts surveys on manufacturing and services?...