The Midas Touch

Are rising Treasury yields behind gold's sell-off?

Retail Sales

U.S. retail sales numbers came in today, sales in July increased 1.2% from June, coming in well below the forecast of 1.9%.

What I noticed was the wide dispersion between estimates, showing there really is no consensus view.

Looking at total sales – that’s the absolute numbers not percentage change – a V-shaped pattern has emerged.

Real Vision Blog - Chart: Adjusted Retail & Food Services Sales Total
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls

But will it be a “square root” recovery…

Have we been borrowing growth and economic activity from the future as people cooped up in their homes are splurging? It really hinges on fiscal picture and the progress of the virus.

In other news, are rising yields putting pressure on gold?  Nominal yields have risen as the Treasury has undergone over 4 trillion worth of issuance,

the question I’m wondering is, is this indigestion in the bond market the reason for the sell-off in gold this past week? But what does the future hold for gold – and silver, for that matter?

Do real yields put pressure on gold?

Well if you’re interested in that question stay tuned because next week on Real Vision, we’re going to be doing a deep dive on precious metals. that’s right for the entire week we’re embarking on a journey to discover what’s going on with gold and silver, what are the challenges and opportunities in the space? what are the fundamental drivers of price action, and where are we headed from here? 

We’re starting off strong on Monday, with Lyn Alden and Ron William, they’re going to be taking a historical look at gold and silver relative to money supply, interest rates, and equity valuations.

Then on Tuesday Ed’s going to be speaking to Peter Cecchini about how investors can gain different exposure to these assets according to their needs.

On Wednesday, James Rasteh of Coast Capital returns to talk precious metals with none other than Raoul Pal, they’re going to explore if the unprecedented nature of COVID has become the rocket fuel that gold had been waiting for.

And then on Thursday, Dan Oliver’s going to be speaking to the great Simon Mikhailovich, these 2 pioneers in the space are going to be taking you through the run up in precious metals from the perspective of bond markets, yields and deteriorating credit ratings.

And then we finish the week with Bill Fleckenstein and perhaps one of the best known precious metal/commodity investors of all time, Rick Rule.

Finally, for our Plus and Pro members we bring you an action packed week with four distinct pieces ranging from Lyn Alden and Raoul Pal to Warren Irwin to Alexander Campbell and Max Wiethe diving head first into miners, macro, gold, silver and of course, a touch of Bitcoin as well!