Darius Dale's Outlook for 2021
Darius Dale, managing director of Hedgeye Risk Management, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to share his outlook for 2021. Dale provides a strategic update on growth, inflation, the U.S. dollar, and interest rates, describing how his views on these macro variables affect his analysis on bonds, equities, credit, and emerging markets stocks. Filmed on December 18, 2020. Key learnings: For the near-term, bond yields will likely rise as the economy enters a “Quad 2” regime (where growth and inflation are accelerating at the same time), and as such, equities and credit will perform broadly while duration-sensitive equities could “get smoked.” However, a slowdown in growth in the third quarter of 2020 could derail a market rally and separate stocks with true and lasting earning potential from those who were merely “riding the down-dollar wave.” Looking farther afield, Dale sees sustained risks for the U.S. dollar and accordingly is bullish on emerging markets such as Brazil and India.