Flash Update – August 1, 2019

Published on: August 1st, 2019

The last In Focus, I made the case that we needed to sit on our hands and wait for some clarity. Time for action.


  • JP Ä.
    20 August 2019 @ 21:31
    1 yr treasury = 1.75% 2 yr = 1.53% Eurodollar Dec 2020 = 1.28% (1 yr and 4 months) Not better trade to buy the 2 yr bonds instead of the Eurodollar futures (already priced) at these levels if we us for lower rates?
    • JP Ä.
      29 August 2019 @ 14:01
      I joined macro to get feedback on questions raised. Up to now, i have received more value from Realvision TV and twitter comments....
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      11 September 2019 @ 06:44
      JP, Raoul and Julian are active in the comments section a couple of days after the report is posted. Given the high number of questions it’s likely they will only cover some of them.
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    6 August 2019 @ 19:55
    Any thoughts on recent equity high volatility bouts being positively correlated with the dollar? Haven't done a historical analysis but it feels lately like rapid risk off movements equates to stocks and dollar down, bonds up... Not what I would've anticipated...
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      7 August 2019 @ 16:41
      Super rare to have such a large move dollar & spx down (only like 4-5 times since 2009).... Still need to get more data back to 2000.... Last time was August 2015 (China deval)... What's the significance here?
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      7 August 2019 @ 16:46
      Maybe just a short squeeze due to a common trade (long dollar and us stocks?)
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      7 August 2019 @ 16:47
      Looking at EUR/USD here...
  • BH
    Boris H.
    2 August 2019 @ 09:54
    Raoul, does it still make sense to by the calls at 0.16? Market moved very quickly here - does this trade still seem contrarian and with good risk/reward? Thanks!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      2 August 2019 @ 10:54
      Keep buying.
    • PM
      Philip M.
      7 August 2019 @ 16:24
      Trade management question... Great trade so far. Still worth adding at 0.24? Moved well above 1SD today so assume still a buy on any pullback?
  • TS
    Tyler S.
    7 August 2019 @ 13:50
    what about a new flash update, I see there is a 20 page twitter story but nothing for paid clients.
  • CS
    C S.
    3 August 2019 @ 07:23
    Does this change thoughts on expected USD projection? https://www.baldwin.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Competitive%20Dollar%20for%20Jobs%20and%20Prosperity%20Act%20FINAL.pdf
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    3 August 2019 @ 03:37
    Raoul, any thoughts on the long end of the curve? We’ve rallied pretty hard again, assuming equity weakness continues and Fed is forced to cut 50-75 bps to try and knock this on the head, will that steepen and possibly back up the long end of the curve? In other words, wait for September because we might be getting stretched at these levels for 10+ years on the curve?
  • AM
    Artur M.
    2 August 2019 @ 20:02
    Raoul, from your experience time to take the steepner is after first rate cut? I don't have Bloomberg terminal and it's hard for me to validate the time, but I think I heard you saying that that should be after the first cut, meaning now. Also a tip for MI as getting on a steepner in UST is complicated. You can use Blue pack - Gold pack in eurodollars to put on on 2/10 steepner as it's equivalent but much easier as you don't need to think about multipliers. So the most simplest would be to buy EDZ20 and sell EDZ23 if you don't want to complicate too much but the current configuration for blue pack/ gold pack is (GEU2020-GEU2023+GEZ2020-GEZ2023+GEH2021-GEH2024+GEM2021-GEM2024) (trading view formula) if you want to be strict. The shape of this configuration is at the moment the same as EDZ20 - EDZ23. Thanks in advance Artur @Ar2go2 (twitter)
    • MC
      Mathieu C.
      2 August 2019 @ 20:18
      Hi Artur What makes you think the curve will steepen?
    • AM
      Artur M.
      2 August 2019 @ 20:34
      You get bull steepner when front end falls faster than back end which you get if FED cuts. So if you think that rates going to 0 that should imo be the case
    • AM
      Artur M.
      2 August 2019 @ 20:36
      But would love to get some confirmation by Raoul experience
    • MC
      Mathieu C.
      2 August 2019 @ 23:16
      Have a look at ETF STPP that might help you. The yield curve has inverted massively this week, 10Y shorts have been destroyed, I don't think the risk/reward is that good on a bull steepner unless you think they are going to cut massively in a short period of time which they said they will not. With your strategy based on ED though it seems really hybrid I am not a specialist but I don't even think you are going to capture any sorts of steepening or so few as the rates are low already and the story of negative rate if any is that we don't get out of them that quickly so they all going to zero.. The theme could also be 10Y going up though. But Powell just killed your scenario and his buddy Trump just killed the 10Y shorts. What a team! So if I understand it correctly now all Wall Street is long rates... except China.. interesting...
  • TB
    Tim B.
    2 August 2019 @ 16:56
    Thanks for the update Raoul. A question for anyone. I'm not familiar with these types of trades and just looking to take a flyer, and potentially add if things take shape. On my screen I'm showing /GEZ20 Dec 2020 Eurodollar 99 calls for 0.25, not .10 as Raoul is suggesting. Would .25 still be a decent entry point? Cheers
    • AM
      Artur M.
      2 August 2019 @ 19:44
      No way, you are being ripped off. The highest was 0.165 lowest 0.135. Artur @Ar2go2 (twitter)
    • TB
      Tim B.
      2 August 2019 @ 19:58
      Thanks Artur! And I'll check out your Twitter feed. Cheers
  • MC
    Mathieu C.
    2 August 2019 @ 12:35
    Thanks Raoul for the update + the notification with email to stay updated on time. I have opened the copper on time and reversed my bonds position. I have been struggling for many years to become consistent and hopefully MI can help me to not be as scared as to trade the trend when it's hot instead of playing fake reversals! One thing I have been struggling with also is how to allocate properly a trade in your portfolio, I and possibly many other humans with fairly light balance will have a tendency to too much leveraged a portfolio as making 5% - 10% a year will not do much for them in terms of real value. But on long term at the end I am underperforming these numbers. I was wondering if you could by any chance make a short videos on that topic to share your experience as to how you're sizing your trades. Your balance might be quite different than the majority of the subscribers but I'd interested in listening to your experience/ Julian's on how to trade futures/ options efficiently with a fairly light balance of 20k - 50k USD when the margin is taking easily 10% of the account. We could also have the same discussion with balances between 50k - 200k USD. In my opinion this gets easier as the balance increases in terms of risk/reward. I'd be curious as to what you think about this and I am sure your insight and thought might be very valuable as always. Thanks!
    • MC
      Mathieu C.
      2 August 2019 @ 12:52
      As also a mean of making a small contribution on the macro front, the property market has become extremely hot in Thailand where I reside and the situation has been even degrading further this year. I understand that is the same or worse for the whole south east region. This cannot spell a bright future for now or later. Jan 19 https://www.thailand-business-news.com/real-estate/70844-ballooning-unsold-inventory-casts-shadow-on-thai-property-market.html
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    2 August 2019 @ 11:36
    Hi Raoul....any thoughts how far OTM the UUP calls....and month.....I have bought Dec 20 at 27/28 and very profitable so far....which strike price do you suggest to double down and month? Thanks
  • LM
    Lawrence M.
    1 August 2019 @ 20:17
    Thanks for the immediate update! Was hoping to see something following the Fed meeting/today's market activity. I opened accounts with Coinbase and Interactive Brokers two weeks ago, dipped into bitcoin, futures here I come. This service has really pushed me into educating myself on products/platforms I would have otherwise avoided. Very exciting (win or lose).
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      2 August 2019 @ 10:56
  • GP
    Greg P.
    1 August 2019 @ 23:22
    Hi Raoul - thanks for the flash update. A newish member to MI - and I find your passion intoxicating. Even my wife has noticed a change in my zest for the future. Just on your Eurodollar recommendation, I can only go out as far as Dec 2019 with my current broker. Do you have an alternative bond recommendation that addresses your current ED theme, or, is a position in ED19 sufficient? Thanks.
    • JQ
      JACK Q.
      2 August 2019 @ 01:08
      2yr fut expresses same view. ZT
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      2 August 2019 @ 10:55
      2 years futures
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    2 August 2019 @ 04:31
    Raoul, thanks for adding to my conviction on bonds; ED trading at anywhere 98 is a no-brainer Quick q on copper, is high-grade copper futures as good alternative to the copper futures you're quoting? I can see similarities in both charts, but wanted to check.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      2 August 2019 @ 10:55
      Yes, one is US listed, the other is the London Metal Exchange but they are essentially the same
  • MD
    Michael D.
    2 August 2019 @ 07:34
    Not yet time to short EEM?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      2 August 2019 @ 10:54
      Ha1 Was thinking of this this morning...its bloody close.
  • PM
    Philip M.
    2 August 2019 @ 05:50
    Hi Raoul, Thanks for your fantastic research. The last time I traded ED I got nearly 3x returns - only because I entered late. This time, given the VIX spike and the TrumpTwit intervention pushing it to 0.1550, would you wait for VIX to lower or eat the difference?
  • JQ
    JACK Q.
    2 August 2019 @ 02:43
    Ah! missed the cheap opportunity to add EDs...already moved again! looking forward to insider talk with julian this month!
  • MS
    Mark S.
    1 August 2019 @ 22:27
    Hi Raoul thanks for the update. When I do a search for Copper Miners etf i get only COPX but they don't have options. Were you thinking of anyone else?
  • DD
    Daljit D.
    1 August 2019 @ 21:07
    Thanks for the update. Guessing those ED calls have got pretty expensive after this tariff move. What are your views on ED's at these prices? Any one of those trades stand out to you more now?
  • KA
    Kelly A.
    1 August 2019 @ 21:03
    timely and helpful. thank you.

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.