Flash Update – January 27, 2020

Published on: January 27th, 2020

Raoul wants to update you on his thinking…


  • YO
    Yoshitaka O.
    7 February 2020 @ 10:27
    Hi Raoul, you mentioned in your leaked GMI report that you were also eyeing Ethereum. What are you specifically looking for before you decide to pull the trigger and allocate to it? Thanks for the insights
  • CS
    Cameron S.
    6 February 2020 @ 19:29
    When trading 10 year futures, which month are people using?
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    2 February 2020 @ 17:46
    Raoul, with China announcing stimulus measures what kind of implications would this have on the US dollar? Shouldn't this keep the dollar big and possibly open the door to that napalm move in the dollar we've been waiting so long for?
    • YO
      Yoshitaka O.
      6 February 2020 @ 14:59
      Equity markets are now back to all-time highs on the back of fresh chinese liquidity and rumours of coronavirus vaccine hopes! We live in truly interesting times...
  • AG
    Ashish G.
    30 January 2020 @ 18:11
    Raoul with the 10-yr nearing 1.50 support and with the move we have had in Eurodollars, how do you think about risk management here? I am assuming you are of the view we finally break through, but just curious if you have any incremental thoughts given the move that is already taken place? Much appreciated.
    • RP
      Raoul P.
      31 January 2020 @ 23:02
      Good question - my view is that we are enough in profits that we can suffer a bounces but it should last more than three of four days, in my view. Not yet.
  • YO
    Yoshitaka O.
    29 January 2020 @ 10:28
    Raoul, would you still recommend shorting the GBP against USD? It is currently 8% away from your initial entry. I am looking to use GBP as a source of leverage for my portfolio which is predominantly TLT (47%) and GLD (15%) now. Hopefully to take advantage of potential downside to GBP as well as its lower interest rate vs USD Thanks
    • RP
      Raoul P.
      29 January 2020 @ 21:18
    • YO
      Yoshitaka O.
      30 January 2020 @ 12:04
      Raoul, I was also wondering about your thought process why you did not recommend to short the HKD against the USD. Considering that HK is one of the major hotspots for the coronavirus crisis as well as geopolitical instability. Also you brought on Kyle Bass on RV TV who went all in on shorting the HKD. Appreciate if you would be so kind to share your rationale behind your decision (to not short the HKD, while you short the AUD, EUR and GBP). Was it technical analysis that mainly contributed to that? Many thanks
    • RP
      Raoul P.
      30 January 2020 @ 12:47
      I dont have a clear view on the HKD as its more of a special situation as opposed to a freely traded currency that will easily adapt to the change in macro conditions. That doesn't mean it won't work but this doesn't express my trade as clearly as it might not work.
    • JA
      Joseph A.
      31 January 2020 @ 03:52
      GBP/USD is in a really tight wedge pattern at the moment of lower highs and higher lows. The pop up for GBP yesterday after Carney's last interest rate meeting but with it is still inside the wedge suggests a breakout could be imminent with Brexit officially happening tonight 11pm GMT (Friday 31st January).
    • JA
      Joseph A.
      31 January 2020 @ 15:42
      GBPUSD update is it is out of the wedge to the upside and if it takes out 1.3175 the chart pattern is remarkably similar looking to the bond trade breakout making it a buy not a sell. Thoughts Raoul?
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    27 January 2020 @ 16:44
    Thanks raoul
    • MP
      Matthew P.
      27 January 2020 @ 16:48
      Fyi, I suspect those that are panicking in the weeds on how to execute the trade idea when you clearly stated how are in the vocal minority. Don't waste too much energy and focus on the markets and ideas. Thanks again great calls!
    • JL
      Jack L.
      27 January 2020 @ 21:02
      Agree with @Matthew P. -- I consider my purchase of MI access akin to buying a ticket to go helicopter skiing off-piste in avalanche territory right after a load of fresh snow has dropped. Experienced, confident skiers/boarders only. Not the right venue to be figuring out what kind of skis or bindings one should have nor to be hand-held while learning the basics of avalanche risk management.
    • HM
      Harry M.
      29 January 2020 @ 18:08
      I think Jack L makes a fine point. If you have never traded ZNs before this may not be the time to place a large trade, even if you agree with the thesis. If you are familiar with bond futures then you will look at the argument and make your own mind up. But so far so good.
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      30 January 2020 @ 10:17
      Matthew, who is panicking? Harry, who says about placing a large trade? You gentlemen are making lots of assumptions here. All people are asking is some ranges/entry points, some key levels. When you publish MI portfolio update you have entry prices, why don’t include this info when you recommend a trade? As for majority or minority of these sort of comments it’s worth reading comments to the January portfolio update… Play nicely and good luck with your trades/investments everyone.
  • am
    alexander m.
    30 January 2020 @ 05:32
    Sorry for the newbie question, when buying the Dec21 ED calls, can you accurately estimate option market of the value if rates move favourably? If so, does anyone have some good resources to study for this? Thanks in advance
    • am
      alexander m.
      30 January 2020 @ 05:57
      meant market value of the option*
  • YW
    YM W.
    29 January 2020 @ 09:55
    Great piece Raoul! Just looking at the longer term Eurodollar chart comparison seems to suggest a trajectory into negative rates in the US. Would appreciate if you could share your thoughts on whether and if so how you see this playing out?
    • RP
      Raoul P.
      29 January 2020 @ 21:19
      I really dont know, so lets take one step at a time...
  • PW
    Pete W.
    28 January 2020 @ 15:41
    Does anybody have a handle on the sensitivity of $TLT to rate moves (DV01jI think the duration is~17 yrs(?). Just trying to size a TLT call trade. Thanks in advance.
  • RP
    Raoul P.
    28 January 2020 @ 11:23
    I know nothing about viruses but the memories of SARS are causing rapid, outsized reactions from China and other states to not repeat it, with borders closing and travel/trade in lock down. Regardless of whether the coronavirus is worse than SARS or not, the economic impact will be much bigger. And Central Banks will be part of it as world trade was already negative and ISM at 47. The risks are too high not to act quickly. 2-year yields are within a few bps of the yield lows..
  • YO
    Yoshitaka O.
    28 January 2020 @ 05:40
    Raoul, this piece is phenomenal and much awaited. Any price or rate targets or will there be another flash update for that?
  • JI
    Janne I.
    27 January 2020 @ 18:53
    Are you guys planning to make any content about the likely Sanders presidency, and what effects this will have to the economy? The last releases have been incredible, thank you.
    • RP
      Raoul P.
      27 January 2020 @ 20:28
      Yes, at some point... working on it.
  • TH
    Trina H.
    27 January 2020 @ 16:51
    How does one buy 10 year notes? Is there an ETF?
    • MP
      Matthew P.
      27 January 2020 @ 17:37
      CME globex /ZN for futures, or $TLT
    • BC
      Brent C.
      27 January 2020 @ 18:11
      IEF - 7-10 year Treasury Bond ETF
    • JW
      J W.
      27 January 2020 @ 18:12
      SPTL or VGLT have 10 Yr notes.....
  • JK
    James K.
    27 January 2020 @ 17:20
    Is TIPS another option in here ... ? Thanks
    • RP
      Raoul P.
      27 January 2020 @ 18:11
      I never trade them but if you know and understand them, sure. But they won't trade as well as bond futures.
  • JW
    Joel W.
    27 January 2020 @ 17:01
    Thanks Raoul for delivering value this morning!

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.