Hold The Line

Published on: January 21st, 2019

Raoul observes that many of the key markets and asset prices around the world are now at crucial junctures; the next few days might well give us the direction for the rest of the year…

Comments

  • TK
    Torbjorn K.
    22 January 2019 @ 17:16
    Following the ISM New orders from Desember, there are no expectation that the one for January will be any better, and preliminary UMCSI numbers dropped dramatically also. TSLA has 30th of jan as release date for Q4 numbers. In Q3 they release numbers beating expectations and still the share fell quite a bit. What about a short TSLA for missing their estimates and then just 2 days later the ISM PMI will be out for January. Only thing I dont like about the tsla stock is its unpredicability. Hoping to start a factual discussion about the trade idea here. Raoul and Julian feel free to add some good or bad arguments against the trade.
    • TK
      Torbjorn K.
      22 January 2019 @ 17:20
      Correction regarding Q3. Stock continued quite flat. Yahoo finance tricked me a bit on the date.
    • FM
      Fraser M.
      23 January 2019 @ 07:48
      I think puts are the best way to play a TSLA short - otherwise timing is just too tough. $240 Puts to 21 June ‘19 and $100 Puts to Jan 2020 (my positioning) capture both a shorter term re-rating (yes it’s a car company) and a longer term bankruptcy prospect. Interesting to note that current TSLA short interest (float) is at a recent low - so not nearly as crowded as it was.
    • JW
      Jim W.
      2 February 2019 @ 07:57
      I guess I'm not as confident as Fraser that TSLA will be TSLAQ within a year, so I've done put spreads at 280/200 and 300/150 in Jan 2020. YMMV.
  • BR
    Brian R.
    24 January 2019 @ 04:18
    Dollar fate reduces to Global debt funding vs Twin deficits: if recession is deeper and faster than anticipated; Dollar moves up because of high yield spreads hold corporations hostage to higher costs, otherwise dollar moves down, since fed stays neutral yet twin deficits keep increasing. So crude and copper along usd/yen bottom and the trilogy starts trending higher. VS higher bond spreads in Mexico sovereign bonds and South Africa ( since China it's already priced) We know Raoul is not versed in math, but Julian cries out loud he is, perhaps he can pick one of his many models and show a chart of the REER of the dollar, if not you can ask one from me, ( it's in the top quartile overvalued) Even one chart of the big mac index can attest to that. I'm pretty sure they will both keep up with such charts in the next month.
  • HO
    H2 O.
    24 January 2019 @ 00:59
    Financial conditions have eased temporarily and will some more based on some fiscal flow data for the US that everyone is ignoring. Macro outlook is well priced, these flows are not, and will help with a last gasp for risk assets until Trump thoroughly buggers the economy.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    22 January 2019 @ 01:02
    Hi Raoul, What kinds of things can be the trigger down besides the dollar?
    • FM
      Fraser M.
      23 January 2019 @ 07:56
      Suggestion - watch the Eurodollar interest rate futures curve say, Dec ‘19, Dec ‘20, Dec ‘21 (contract code on Interactive Brokers ‘GE’) tells you how the big money is discounting future Fed moves. If the Fed isn’t going to raise rates or even drop rates then it’s because the economy is going into recession. We know what to do if that happens.
  • JQ
    JACK Q.
    22 January 2019 @ 15:55
    Hey Raoul - can you flash update us when you feel the conviction the top is in and full gas on the short side?
  • se
    scott e.
    21 January 2019 @ 22:37
    Raoul. Is this not a question of when growth stalls but what will the effect and extent of Central Bank intervention be on assets prices this time around. We are witnessing the beginning of that already in Fedspeak
    • RM
      R M.
      22 January 2019 @ 02:50
      Exactly. Plus China. Lots of news stories on the flooding of the market with liquidity. Am hoping Raoul and Julian address this.
  • AS
    Armando S.
    21 January 2019 @ 19:37
    I'm curious if you are still short s&p or similar as you recommended on Dec 20 before the subsequent ~8% rally. No stop was specified, but it was a hope for a 3-18mo short. This would mean a pretty wide stop and small position sizing to wait out these rallies: "I hope that I will be in these trades for at least three months, and potentially eighteen months if my economic weakness thesis is confirmed. Set stops where you are comfortable with the pain levels. If I feel I am wrong and something has changed, I’ll let you know". It seems like you are saying no only to "hold the line" on the short, but double down and sell even more on these rallies! It seems position sizing is paramount here. Thanks!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 January 2019 @ 23:21
      Correct. Long term views need small positions and then you add when the risk reward improves. Im suggesting that we might be at an add juncture or a stop juncture, depending how it trades.
  • AG
    Adam G.
    21 January 2019 @ 21:32
    I think that the bad eco data has been priced into the market. I think the rebound has more to do with Central banks around the globe getting dovish. I think that the Smart Money knows all about decelerations in Eco data. So... at this juncture, no edge to found in clasical biz cycle analysis. Time will tell, what do you all think ?

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.