It Is Time…

Published on: December 20th, 2018

Raoul, flush from his victories in the bond markets, shifts his focus to equities…

Comments

  • MS
    Mark S.
    21 December 2018 @ 05:17
    Hi Raoul, where are you on CBA? You mentioned shorting it not too long ago and it seems like it has more to go.
    • DB
      Daniel B.
      21 December 2018 @ 07:33
      It’s a favourite of mine right now. It’s rallied against the three other main banks in Australia this week
    • TB
      Thibault B.
      25 December 2018 @ 11:39
      I think it'll be a great trade in 2019. EPP is similarly interesting etf, full of Aussie banks and other asian financials, priced in USD.
    • DB
      Daniel B.
      26 December 2018 @ 00:55
      Thanks for the tip on EPP Thibault; I'm in Oz so there a win-win long-USD and short bank play on EPP
    • VG
      Vivek G.
      9 January 2019 @ 15:44
      EPP appears to have poor liquidity on Options - Buy Puts...any other experiences on this ticker?
  • MW
    Marco W.
    24 December 2018 @ 00:07
    Seeing a lot of excitement in this space. In bear market, there are a lot of "vicious rally" as emphasized in the recent Druckenmiller interview. Better sell slowly on rebound (even it means missing the opportunity in case of SPX plunging directly to 1800) than chase the momentum. Even better just follow Druckermiller's way to buy treasury bills/notes/bonds on any equity rebound/treasury pullback.
  • VG
    Vivek G.
    22 December 2018 @ 17:44
    Hi Raoul - thanks firstly. You make a good case to sell KBE. Where I’d appreciate your feedback is your views on specific Bank Stocks - GS, JPM, C and BAC. Are you also in effect saying that these 4 will continue to decline downwards from their current levels (Friday closing)? Am trying to tease out your thinking on the index KBE relative to GS, JPM, C and BAC Regards
  • B
    Bob .
    22 December 2018 @ 06:12
    It is going to be a fun 2019. Thanks, Raoul.
  • MW
    Myron W.
    22 December 2018 @ 03:51
    Dude! I read this piece this morning just as the market was about to open. Did my own validation of your recommendation, then bought some GOOG puts with the mark at $1004. It was a good day. Next time you are in Orange County, drinks on me!
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    22 December 2018 @ 02:13
    Glancing at Google I'd estimate $715 based on H&S and $355 based on parabolic advance going back to 2009 (80% decline per Peter Brandt school of thought). Any price targets for Google outside of technicals? Fundamentals certainly square up nicely with the decline (end of business cycle, regulation, etc.).
  • MS
    Mark S.
    22 December 2018 @ 02:08
    Hi Raoul, I see that you put on your Google position a few days ago as mentioned in a tweet. I am interested to know what tipped you over at that moment. I say this in light of the fact that you are watching the dollar like a hawk and posted on twitter a cup and handle chart as it sits right now https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1076217192885223426. It hasn't crossed resistance but are you putting a long dollar on now or are you waiting for it to cross the resistance or close above the resistance or close a for a few days above resistance?. I am asking to understand your thought process. Cheers
  • lD
    lance D.
    21 December 2018 @ 17:42
    Haha..... Yes Yes, big boy pants are at the ready! not sure to go with red or pink tho??- fuk it I'm putting em both on Have a great holiday season and have a merry christmas all .x
  • lD
    lance D.
    21 December 2018 @ 17:42
    Haha..... Yes Yes, big boy pants are at the ready! not sure to go with red or pink tho??- fuk it I'm putting em both on Have a great holiday season and have a merry christmas all .x
  • BC
    Brent C.
    21 December 2018 @ 14:54
    Raoul, I've seen a lot of commentary recently trying to view the large outflows from equities we've seen this December as a contrary indicator to buy stocks for more than a dead cat bounce. I think the reason we see this here, today, is due to your pension thesis. Required Min Distribution values are based on 12/31 prior year close. Obviously, 12/31/17 was the highest ever annual equity close in the US. With now the largest amount of baby boomers ever reaching 70.5, and the second highest allocation ever recorded to equity exposure, it really isn't that much of a surprise we are witnessing it now. Perhaps, it may be worth revisiting/updating those numbers. But great call either way, and IMO there simply is no way that isn't playing a part in the massive outflows we are witnessing.
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    20 December 2018 @ 23:39
    Raoul, any thoughts on the retracements of bonds across the curve in the last 24 hours? There’s been no sustained recovery in SPX, is there something bigger at play putting bonds at risk?
  • TK
    Torbjorn K.
    20 December 2018 @ 19:53
    How about AMZN? Its also broken head and shoulder support.
  • JQ
    JACK Q.
    20 December 2018 @ 17:06
    The time is finally here!! Wooohoo! On side note agree very much on the 2s. This week already seen very large size blocks coming from Japanese real money accounts buying 2yr and 3yrs as they reduce equities and allocating back to bonds. This will be a decent tailwind for 2.6 to break !
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 December 2018 @ 19:39
      Interesting. Thanks
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    20 December 2018 @ 18:46
    Hi Raoul, with shorting XOM, is that another opportunity to reshort oil?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 December 2018 @ 19:39
      Yup..