Pro Macro – Deep Dive: Keeping At It?

Published on: September 27th, 2022

Markets are moving fast. Powell now has the equity market’s ear. Bonds yields and USD are both rising fast enough to enter a destabilising danger zone. RoC is the hook here. The piece below amplifies on the Q4 Road Map in the context of last week’s FOMC. We are heading into a short-term blow-off phase where accelerating equity weakness comes into play.

Comments

  • AL
    Alex L.
    27 September 2022 @ 23:25
    1 0
    Why puts on NDX rather than SPX? Raoul had mentioned a few times NDX had the larger recession priced in already.
    • ly
      lena y.
      28 September 2022 @ 21:52
      0 0
      Julian mentioned in last insider talks comment section, his trade is based on his model! This time it is NDX not SP500.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      28 September 2022 @ 16:46
      0 0
      I dont think you will get much pushback from JB on buying Nasdaq puts.
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    28 September 2022 @ 10:28
    19 0
    Is there any chance we can set up a private Twitter feed for macro insider subs with trade alerts so that we can get Julian and Raoul triggers as soon as possible. Things are moving so fast I think turning to Twitter and tweeting new sets up to subs would be far more efficient that waiting on an email alert. An email alert explaining the trade after would still be nice to receive but I think Twitter is a upgrade to get subs real time updates on potential trades. Thoughts
    • JW
      JW2 W.
      29 September 2022 @ 09:54
      0 0
      Excellent plan. This was missing for a long time.
    • AA
      Alberto A.
      29 September 2022 @ 01:00
      0 0
      100%! Great idea Miguel. I didn't know twitter has this feature
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      28 September 2022 @ 16:46
      3 0
      Great idea.
  • ly
    lena y.
    28 September 2022 @ 21:54
    1 0
    The trade is very well laid out. Thanks for the guidance.
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    29 September 2022 @ 01:16
    1 0
    Great report Julian. Great call on SPX. Also, 100% agree with the ultra bearish view on NDX. Take a look at the monthly chart of NDX for the last 15 years. The 8ema crossed the 21ema after the GFC and never looked back (the greatest bullish market we have seen). Well guess what? The 8ema in march "bear crossed" the 21ema!!! This has never happened for the last 13 years, not even during COVID in 2020. The probabilities of a crash or even worst a bleeding of 30% down is in the table. Please do let us know when you pull the trigger! Cheers
  • PM
    Philip M.
    29 September 2022 @ 07:25
    0 0
    How does one read the Eurodollar curve chart in the report? Specifically, what is the difference between the four colored curves?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      29 September 2022 @ 12:15
      0 0
      Sorry shifting lower!
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      29 September 2022 @ 12:13
      0 0
      I should have added that each colored curve is the yield curve on a different date. So the curves are presented for a day in March22, Aug 22, and two dates a week apart in Sept 22,
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      29 September 2022 @ 12:11
      0 0
      Great point Philip. I can see the ambiguity. It is the "strip" of Eurodollar contracts as traded on the close of each day its labelled. So its a yield curve. Each interest rate is 100 - the eurodollar contract price. So the red line shows the Dec 25 libor rate as closing at 97.51 or 2.49%. You can see how Eurodollar interest rates have been shifting high over time.
  • DD
    Donal D.
    30 September 2022 @ 04:18
    0 0
    Hi Harry, Just want to clarify my understanding on the NDX 10,000 PUT suggestion. In the write up it says its a "contingent buy" I just want to confirm that the contingency is a bounce in the index that leads to the PUT Option price trading in the $210 area? as right now its about $300 following the steep sell off on Thursday Thanks, Donal.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      30 September 2022 @ 23:20
      1 0
      Yes thats right. We just had such a bounce, and a long discussion about how to deal with it. The idea was to sell that Nasdaq bounce in the form of buying puts. JB argues that it probably was doable, in the sense that the index traded around the level he suggested, But its not a clear and obvious thing. I can imagine only a select few readers got on that trade. The broader take away (cos its a bad idea to do trades without deciding whether you like them and how you will manage them. But I think the takeaway is that JB strongly suggests selling rallies. Rallies to around the level he suggested should be sold. As more bad news emerges (Apple, Ukr, UK) one could make the argument that the levels to sell should get lower.
  • PQ
    Pascal Q.
    3 October 2022 @ 05:54
    0 0
    The Chart p15 on Currencies shows the Argentinian peso has the second best performing currency on 12 months among expanded majors, i guess there is a problem of data. Bloomberg disagrees it is the second worst!
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      4 October 2022 @ 16:03
      0 0
      I think its a question of carry. Ytd I see peso as second best on bberg. I used WCRS<GO>
  • RR
    Raj R.
    9 October 2022 @ 18:57
    0 0
    Yes agreed that the 10 yr bond yields are over extended.