A few observations from a FAANG worker in a tech hub: I know a surprising number of tech workers that are asking for severance packages - in most cases this is some combination of being burned out and having vested $$$$ of RSUs over the last 3+ years (and potentially having an employed significant other.). If they got a package, my guess is these people would continue spending at about the same level (or maybe more since they have more free time?) I know a few real estate agents here who are all telling me homes are starting to get 15-20 bids and go 10%+ over ask again, apparently despite monthly payments maybe ~50% higher than in 2019 and ~100% higher than in 2020. I golf, and all the courses (including $200+ ones that took their prices up ~50% this year) are almost booked out. The one I usually play just put out signs everywhere saying 'hiring for all positions including chefs, golf professionals and greenskeepers.' I don't doubt data is weakening, but I am having trouble putting this together with daily experience where it feels like inflation is reaccelerating. Curious if anyone has any thoughts on how to reconcile these or has a different experience?

Julian, can you add a little more color on your bigger pic view on inflation. You expect it to fall from here, but is it safe to assume around 3s-4% it becomes sticky? Its an interesting dynamic because while inflation is clearly heading in the wrong direction there's a risk that the fed sees the absolute move as encouraging, pauses hikes only to be surprised how stick it is around the 3%s and will feel the need to either add hikes or continue pausing. Just want to decipher what your big pic outlook is for inflation because I know you and Raoul differ on that view, yours being itll come down to a higher level than their 2% mandate and itll be hard to get there while Raoul think we may experience out right deflation. Thanks in advance.