THIS IS AMAZING

Finally!

Thank you Raoul!Se passi da Roma hai una cena speciale offerta.

Much appreciated for the content and effort put in it 🙏 Thanks 🙂👍🏼

Your a good man... And we THANK YOU! This is excellently written! and remenber GET LONG, BE LONG, STAY LONG... In size!

Excellent content, well thought out and easy for the layman to understand. Appreciate the work you do.

Great content.Thanks for sharing and educating the masses.🙏🙏🙏

Thank You Raoul, I am trying very hard in covering up for my illiteracy on crypto, and you are helping a lot. I appreciate it until now and looking forward to more in the future.

As always, great content from you Raoul. Thanks a million.

Thank you Raoul You my friend are a very well rounded guy !! I APPRECHIATE ALL YOU DO FOR US!!

Thanks this is very generous of you!

An informative article tying together the multiple narratives driving investing in digital asset space. I love Raoul's genius ability to explain the complex fluid ecologies of human behavior. In summation just follow the mob.

Thanks Raoul Bhai! Samudaay ke lie aap jo kuchh bhee karate hain, usake lie dhanyavaad

Great content - Thank you

Wow, without by far the best, most detailed analysis I have seen. Thank you.

Thanks Raoul ..... fantastic article. Though frankly my head hurts .... think I need to read it all again ... and then again. Such an exciting space. Thanks again for all your input ... REALLY appreciated :)

Great update on your thinking, Raoul. Thanks as always..

Raoul starts out with a bang, using Vitalik Buterin's slur for Bitcoiners -- "Bitcoin Maximalists". Not Bitcoin enthusiasts, not simply "Bitcoiners", but that particular phrase that is meant as a derogatory term for those that support the Bitcoin ecosystem. Real Vision has a problem with this, they use the term freely and often with nary a thought about its origins or why it might annoy those that are just trying to help Bitcoin succeed. The idea that Bitcoin is the victor in a world full of knock-offs isn't so outlandish. After all, even when former no-coiners like Raoul thought Bitcoin was "dead" 350+ some times, its managed to survive despite the most vicious attacks, both technical and social. Raoul also affirms that he "gets it" -- but his opener clearly indicates he does not. In fact, by stating "This is why I don't belong to this TRIBE" is clear indication of someone who is used to a neatly compartmentalized world, not the reality of merging views and functionality emerging from the largest financial network the world has ever seen. Indeed, if he did Raoul would understand that whatever innovation comes along, there's a good chance that if it has any promise Bitcoin would absorb it. We're in the process of doing just that with "privacy" tokens, Schnorr Signature code has been merged and the timing for the final activation is all that's left to obviate a whole raft of duplicated effort elsewhere. But Raoul doesn't comment on that -- because it would undermine his "tribalism" 2020's buzzword analysis. This piece is infused with his hurt at being a crypto newbie and like many others, coming up with the same naive thoughts and being rebuked -- and taking it personally. Money doesn't have feelings. If you need a friend in finance, get a dog. This is a competitive arena, not a bonfire on the beach with the bros. There's a reason Raoul was pushed back on -- his ideas were lacking. Twitter certainly doesn't care about people's feelings, its where ideas multiply or they die. And frankly after personally reading some of his twitter threads, I understand why the internet hive mind took one look and collectively said "go on... come back when you have something original". Raoul is the worst kind of crypto newbie -- too much money and not enough crypto experience. He's going to make substantial mistakes because he views crypto assets like he does everything else he trades, which is a very big mistake. These aren't shares, bonds, futures (in most cases) or contracts-for-difference. Coming at crypto with the baggage of the legacy financial system and expecting it to conform to your ideas is just sheer folly. Again, you see the anchoring in the legacy system when Raoul says -- "Our world doesn't work like that." Sorry Raoul, but in crypto you have maybe the top three (and those other two could easily slide into oblivion) and the rest are on a long tail of failure, not quite "dead" but languishing in perpetuity. Crypto is a hyper-competitive. It takes the notion of conventional cycles and chews them up for breakfast, ascending the S-Curve of adoption at a furious rate. Again later in the piece we're back to "tribalism", and some exposition on Metcalfe's Law. Nice, there are some benefits to looking at this law in relation to crypto. Raoul then gets into an exchange with XRP promoter Velez - who if you'll recall was all rosy about that particular token before it crashed and burned due to the SEC lawsuit - naturally Raoul finds agreement and assent in this particular "expert". Velez goes on a hyperbolic rant with formulas and such to "disprove" the stock-to-flow model of Bitcoin, even though "Plan B" has said before in other interviews that it only seems Bitcoin follows this model, not the other tokens such as Ethereum or Litecoin. Velez essentially is making the case for where proof-of-work isn't necesssary (how convenient, XRP is a corp-coin premined mess with zero mining) and how whatever token aligns with his view (XRP) is indeed wonderful because of all the "value" its captured. The piece then devolves to the usual "fractal" cut-and-paste comparison of prior movement to intuit future moves -- which honestly is pretty basic and not something I'd rely on in a strict trading sense -- but all it shows is Bitcoin grows, and it does so in spurts and fits before settling down into a consolidation phase. Most crypto traders know this, it isn't a startling revelation. We then move to Ethereum, where Raoul says this -- "When we look at it in terms of market cap, the virality of ETH is far superior to BTC" Excuse me? MARKET CAP? The one metric that is utterly and completely useless when comparing crypto assets? That one? I've been pushing Real Vision to update their indicator sets, and they're still using "marketcap" like a first-year junior analyst. Crypto isn't securities. Coins can be made in an instant, pre-issued in the Billions (or Trillions), and listed on a backwater exchange, trade at 1 USD and have instant "marketcap". This doesn't show their utility or "virality", Raoul. For eff's sake. At least he's putting his money where his mouth is - upping his ETH stake to 35%. I'm a great believer in the market teaching lessons, so I'm pleased he's increasing his exposure. My fundamental argument isn't the token price, but rather the underlying "pivot" to proof-of-stake running into problems. That is where Raoul's love for ETH may suffer, I'm afraid. The rest is how XRP will take over the banking world if their lawsuit doesn't take them down, and a bit more on "DeFi" and risk cycles. Really, this whole piece is how Raoul got called out on crypto-twitter, and his reasons that he's perfectly right and who are they to tell him otherwise. Probably explains his "Bitcoin Maximalist" obsession as well.

That... was... brilliant.

Wow

Thanks Raoul, First class as always!

Well presented and well said. Informative, insightful, and actionable. Thanks Raoul!

You're an absolute gent, big thanks and it's much appreciated from us 'normal' investors

Thank you Mr R!!!!! Excellent deep dive which I appreciate and I know will make a difference on my future investments. Thank you again.

Thanks Raoul! Very informative piece that even i can understand!

It's great to read someone's view of the entire landscape we're in. I guess that's MACRO. Thanks to Raoul.

Great work. Thanks for sharing!

Excellent reading. Thank you very much Raoul for sharing your knowledge and educating us.

Thank you. What a great piece.

Excellent analysis and ready read.

Sagacious analysis and commentary - much appreciated! I'm new to cryptocurrency investing and only own Bitcoin, but I am NOT a maximalist or a tribalist. I am purely a pragmatist like Raoul. I also own a copious amount of gold which I intend to hold on to for years to come (just like with my Bitcoin). I own fewer dollars with each passing year, as my confidence in fiat currency fades with the increasingly imbecilic behavior of central banks.

Great information, very well put.

Great peace, very educational, thank you!

amazing analysis. easy to follow. thank you.

Thanks Raoul, impressive reach and articulate as ever. Always interesting to read counter-views by the likes of Timothy P, particularly when less "ad hominem" in nature. Your work is much appreciated :)

Great article as ever and food for thought. It has convinced me for the need for deeper research and look at adoption curve - related data for some of the other large caps which are bringing 'convenience of utility' into the space early, such as Aave and Celsius.

Amazing content, Raoul. A true leader in the crypto space along with other areas of life and investing. I know you are probably too busy, but if you colud squeeze a 5 minute phone call in, I would love to hear you further discuss these topics and any advice you have for a young man like myself. Keep up the great work, sincerely, Jake Rose

I am very new to this world, but reading this I understood that I am here for the long run. Thank you.

Raoul. It's amazing that the bitcoin price today is fitting even better than its previous post-halving 2013 price and that ethereum is mirroring bitcoin when compared at similar 'ages' - maybe even better with the same price at the same point in time relative to the adoption cycle (addresses). Apparently, it's all about adoption! Thank you Raoul. I appreciate that you do not love money; rather, you look at it only as a life-style token. #legit

The S - curve is more like "The Markets Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent" There is place for at most 5 use cases for censorship resistant blockchains. And the other uses apart from money are tiny in comparison. Most things don't need censorship resistant blockchain because they can't be censorship resistant because of the connection to the real world. e.g. real estate trading, stock trading, any security can't be censorship resistant because in the "meat space" "men with gun" decide who owns what no matter what the blockchain says.

TY, Raoul & Team Real Vision.

Hi Raoul, Thank you so much for offering this report to "the little guy". I have been in crypto for 4 years and now help other small retail investors to get started in the space. This report is the single most valuable resource I have come across to date. Your wisdom, clarity, and vision are awesome. May the Universe continue to bless you in all ways! Best, Lawrence

Thank you.

Nice work! Thanks a lot...

Nice one Mr Pal, great read as always. Gracias.

The network effect was always the value, but your analysis and charts have strengthened my conviction. See you on the moon!

Brilliant! Great data use to make the graphs!

Absolutely brilliant. Thanks. So many questions tho

This article is gold!

Excelent work thank you very much, let me ask you, do you think we will be having an 85% drop and a bear market again?

Thanks for the free insights!

King Raoul

Very in depth report, I love your perspective.

Thanks Raoul for sharing yours and Santiago's work with us peons in the Plus tier.

Great article, although there are some other points to consider, which also raise some interesting questions. I am not a Bitcoin maximalist, I am a crypto ecosystem maximalist. In my view, Bitcoin has already won, it not only has the first mover advantage, but it is the (foreign) exchange mechanism for cryptos, and this can't be understated. One of the features of Bitcoin that is little talked about, is that it can be used to buy/sell other cryptos, and to value them, and as such, has cemented it's place in the crypto ecosystem, regardless of it's market cap. Often we see BTC dominance reduce, or visa versa, as value transfers into alts, in an alt bull market, or into fiat, or stablecoins in a bear market. I believe most asset classes will eventually become tokens (tokenization), in a huge crypto/digital asset market. For example say you buy stocks, you get to hold those stocks, say after T3, that is 3 days after purchase, via an outdated clearing house system. Blockchain changes all of this, it is faster, cheaper, immutable, and more transparent. Raoul says that more regulation is required, and as we are in a development stage(the wild west), there is an absence of regulation, however i argue that centralized regulators will only bastardize decentralized systems. Central regulators paid in USD$(or insert any flavour of CBDC), could by decree say that the FEDcoin, is the exchange mechanism for cryptocurrencies, how would the cypherpunk crypto tribes respond, will they agree to chuck out the Bitcoin exchange mechanism, in favour of FEDcoin, I would think not. It could promote the XMR exchange mechanism, as they collectively reply FU FEDcoin This could be the showdown at sundown. If BTC is not the exchange mechanism (for crypto), and a new Brenton Woods agreement (monetary exchange mechanism, and or reserve asset) is based on a basket of currencies/assets, it is hard not to see Bitcoin included in it (if it was fair) I have not seen any logical arguments for how "centralized regulation can regulate decentralized P2P networks" ( no CEO, no physical address, nobody to threaten), is it an oxymoron? Christine Lagarde, and Janet Yellen, are trying to save us from the evils of money laundering, and terrorism via blockchain, and cryptocurrencies, obviously the larger fiat currencies have a bigger and longer history of doing this, so they are hypocritical at best, and only trying to place roadblocks in front of a peer to peer systems that don't require banks. Permissionless, is also a key feature of crypto, and one of the core values, are we prepared to give this up, in contrast, how did asking permission from the US senate for Libra work out for Mark Zukerberg? DeFi, or open finance (as it is all inclusive, including the bankless) developers are looking to standardize the legos, the very open source building blocks of DeFi, to avoid failures, including hacks, and the loss of investors funds. This is self regulation. DAO's and other protocols, are increasingly adopting governance tokens, which give their token holders voting rights on the future of that project, will their communities vote for increased centralized governance? I believe that there will be increasing levels of self governance, to bring stability to the ecosystem, take DeFi for example, there has been many hacks in the millions of dollars, and as code is better developed, and audited, these hacks are being reduced, I won't say eliminated. So do we think that the white hats will come to save us from the existing political system, and it's regulatory arm? Will they write equitable code for us? When we say trustless, that is because we trust the code to perform without being biased, can we replace our trust in code with the trust of centralized regulators? Will Janet Yellen, or Jay Powell be the new sheriff over cryptoland?

Thank you for sharing your experience and gift to bring knowledge to all. From the complicated and beautiful country where I write, decentralization is full freedom, and many take for granted the freedom that others await with unwavering faith. I take advantage of each of your opinions and analysis. Thank you again for sharing your gift with all people. Gracias Señor Pal.

Excellent piece Raoul! Good job to you and your team. Appreciate the graphs to put things into perspective. I’ll be altering my portfolio allocation to increase reward probability. Must risk it to get the biscuit.

I so appreciate you, Raoul. This article is pure BITCOIN! I'm holding onto both.

Great Stuff!

Thank you for sharing your brilliant ideas!

It's rare that you get something this good for free. Thanks Raoul.

Loved the graphs. Shared your findings and hunches with my friends. Thank you!

You are my role model. Great read. Loved the take on 'if someone hates it or thinks it's a scam, there's opportunity there'. It's only people who don't do their research or look into it that miss out...If you're late to the party look into it quick because you can still enter into it in the 2nd inning instead of the 8th. Thanks again for your insight. Top quality financial insight.

THANK YOU FOR SHARING THIS RAOUL. I absolutely love this content. A man of the people you are.

Reflexivity and the value of the bitcoin eco-system has more to do with price than stock to flow imo. It's an artificial-scarcity cash cow. You only have to look at the valuations of bitcoin exchanges in 2018 to realize it was never going to go under $3000. On the upside these phases of more people trying to get back in than new sellers selling is self-reinforcing. The faster the change in price, the less people sell, the more people have to get back in. People get out at 17k to get back in at 21k, those out at 21k are back in at 24k, so on and so fourth. Scarcity and leverage. This isn't to say that stock to flow doesn't correlate, but looking at the cup patterns and blow off patterns since it was $1 explains not only explains the upside but also the reflexive downside and why it forms these deep cups after blow off.

Wow, what an article. Goes so deep, invigorating and stimulating. Thank you so much

I came across this paragraph "But in cryptocurrencies, the owners of the currencies are the ones that get rich in a distributed system. The owners and the network effects are one whereas in Facebook, they are two sets of players – the users and the shareholders" So why are the owners of the currencies the shareholders? Is this because the currencies are the tokens that you have to pay to use the network?

Never thought I could warm to a suit but you'll do for me Raoul. I can't thank you enough. You have no idea what difference this money could make to my family, you really don't. That BTC/ETH chart is a thing of beauty.

Inter-relationships between networks? i.e. Would there be an ETH without BTC?, and I guess I very high proportion of people are users of both networks.

The great thing is that I'd imagine that you've made your fortune and therefore you don't have to hodl this research to yourself and sell it to large clients. It's amazing that you are able to share it with the world, essentially supporting main street. I hope that one day i get to the point where I've also made my fortune and i can also give back to main street. Metcalfe’s Law meet Maslow's Hierarchy.

Im 70% the way through and its a brilliant piece - thank you for sharing this with the little people.

Thank you Raoul, much appreciated.

Nice read! Lots of food for thought! Thanks

Thank you for your time and effort, give me hope the little guy can have some wins :)

Thank you for bringing your logical and analytical approach to the world of crypto. I love being part of the Real Vision community and always look forward to your videos, information and thoughts. Really appreciate you making your views and thoughts available to us small investors.

Definitely wrote about Maxi's tribalism after talking with Pomp lol, Raoul: "It can't be a free transaction, there's market spread if you send BTC to USD" Pomp: "No bruh that's false, i sent 20$ u receive 20$ u wrong" Raoul: *Ok I'm not wasting my time trying to teach him*

From South Africa.......Thank you !!

Grazie gracias. Absolutely brilliant. Extremely well explained. I particularly appreciated the last few pages about XRP. In my opinion, the upside potential of XRP can be limitless especially if you consider that the community could reach consensus in forcing Ripple the Company, to burn some of their reserves. Why would they do that? To improve even further the deflationary aspect of the entire project, that has very intelligently been built it, from day one. Consider also that from the ecological, utility and transparency perspective, show me another project that comes close to what XRP has achieved. The XRPL is mature and battle tested. How does it get any better than that? Have a wonderful day. Smile :-)

Thanks Raoul for your in depth report about crypto. It gave me a more helicopter perspective of the subject Crypto.

Much appreciated, thank you. Think there is a lot of valuable information in here for everyone

Very readable. I only got lost when the formulas were introduced but got back on track once Raoul explained it. Thanks again.

At some point, the network effect will be tempered by transaction fees. Because the block size is limited, the transaction rates of both BTC & ETH are limited and is a bottleneck on adoption. Another way to express this is that the number of interactions scales slower than Metcalfe's Law because people are prevented from performing interactions they want to do because of high transaction fees imposed by the hard limit on the transaction rate. However, it is unclear at what scale of adoption the limiting effect of transaction rate will start to be significant.

Thanks for this, glad to see you think this way. Ever so satisfied with the work at Real vision.

This is a good article, I liked it. I think RP is just too worried about twitter/internet/more of the same stuff ... that's the way of the world now and egos (including his) overestimate the reality of the social media world, which is called viral in many ways for a reason. Santiago states, "It’s particularly problematic for Bitcoin because the switching costs between going from fiat to Bitcoin are high, but once those costs are justified, the costs from going to Bitcoin to other digital assets is very, very low." He then states "The resistance to change is one of its greatest properties but also one of the reasons why from a network effect perspective it remains deeply vulnerable." The first issue is only a superficial view of costs that is not applied equally, ie the cost of BTC to other DA is not necessarily very low at all, it is low on the "relative to fiat" cost scale. This is proven by his resistance to change property I quoted next, which is why the switching costs are in fact great. Why else would facebook have been so easily capturing, and maintaining its network? Because the costs apparently were in fact high to switch to google+ or any other offered service which was seemingly "easy" from a purely operational point of view. Ethereum is a good example, but it's a ride the BTC wave phenomenon more than anything still, I believe, and the challenge to that is "Will institutions buy ETH?" The ultimate question for me, and I don't doubt for the short to medium term ETH could outperform BTC as RP states here, is what will ETH end up at or as when DAs have their settling point? I see many DAs as being speculative, like stocks, and you can definitely make money on all of these. I just wonder how many, and at what value the altcoins will be at when BTC is finally stable at its position as the Lion of the jungle.

Outstanding article. Well thought out. It provided sufficient depth of the subject without losing the reader. It has certainly prepared me for the coming year. Thank you and good luck to all.

Firstly great read! Thank you for putting in the time. My personal experience (probably being the poorest OG in the world - 2012/2013 and still slogging along as I love it!). For me I'm hardly a maximalist but DO put most of my financial backing behind bitcoin and a bit into eth and a dabble into anything interesting. The reason for this is I have been down the alts road and find bitcoin (as you mention) a much "safer risk" by comparison, I do still dabble long term in alts (mostly ETH and ETH related as mentioned above). What actually scared me the most (and MANY WONT REMEMBER this) is that ETH actually *wound back* the blocks (which caused ETH classic). This was a very sobering and scary realisation when you realise Decentralized doesn't always equate *immutable* storage. This was a HUGE concern for many. And of course then came the bitcoin (forks) alts in droves just to pile on the shit and FUD, I mean we even got a bitcoin platinum and diamond! (Have these changed any code or use case?) **This is where I believe tribalism began.** Would a wind-back happen today? Or a hark fork due to disagreements? EXTREMELY UNLIKELY (perhaps on some centralised projects sure) it's already a much more mature market than in that time period. But my point is for a great deal of the early stakeholders (private whales today if they are not out) it was enough to have many shy away from projects with a real face and owner, because this meant thier investment was still at the whims of a 3rd party to decide if it was yours, not the network. And the space was born out of a pride of being your own bank, or able to hold your own asset with just a node and keys you knew only 4 or 5 people on earth needed the same mindset and it was solid, immutable and Decentralized... I also believe this is why (perhaps), Charlie Lee sold all of his litecoin and chose to let that project run its own course, as it lowered any expectations on him, but meant the market would decide it's direction. (Back then it was silver to bitcoins gold). Today we are already far further down the road than that original concept of bitcoin. And proving everyday new use cases for all sorts of chains. Ironically it looks like Facebook, Twitter and the various platforms censoring people are experiencing this same problem ETH had in its wind-back, today with their social networks. A stigma that will take years to undo. People are realising their data can be removed without warning, and what they considered a safe space for discussion (even with trolls) was not at all. Hence the herd are moving on to new pastures. ** So jumping back into today's Crypto sphere I can certainly understand why some ARE maximalists, but I agree it's not the best long term play. ** Additionally I have found it extremely hard to discuss opinions on virtually any ALT with people on traditional platforms because the tribalism is EXTREME! Far more than the bitcoin community imho. Ask about XRP you get the XRP army saying "stay poor". Ask about ADA you get the Hoskinson homies telling you ETH has had its day. Or the LINK army who tell you it's going to $100 and going to flip everything including bitcoin. So from a personal perspective I have found THIS IS SIMPLY HUMAN NATURE and I feel will be part of the Crypto journey until the investors in the space fully appreciate the diversity. A great example is I ALWAYS get asked by newbies into the space what to buy. I usually suggest they start with Bitcon and learn what it's all about and then look at others they understand the basics. But how many do you think take the 2nd step of learning? Taking the time to figure out what they are holding? Most don't, they just make money, tell their friends how great bitcoin is, throw more at it, and then fall into the maximalist camp. Sadly I don't this this is something that can be avoided UNTIL the lightbulb goes off and the AVERAGE INVESTOR starts to see this space is not as much about changing money as it is about changing the entire structure of industries (the internet and financial space included). But it's already changing logistics, supply deployment and manufacturing tracing among many others. When this understanding hits a critical volume, people will begin to accept all sorts of blockchains and ideas and begin to look at the space as something competing with legacy systems in all sorts of industries. So not against each other even though many of them will overlap. Or as Ivan says, "Evey coke needs a Pepsi in the market" That's my take. So again, thanks so much for the article it was a great read and the analysis was outstanding. But perhaps the bitcoin maximalists sound the loudest because it's simply the largest crowd? *Apologies this isn't structured too well, I just wrote it off the cuff. GL to everyone and I hope 2021 is the year that changes lives for many people!

Wonder if there’s a way to display this in a bit more phone friendly way. I’m consider Printing the is out to read it.

Questions that I was hoping to see addressed: 1. Is the primary driver of Bitcoin value Metcalfe's law, and NOT stock to flow / halving cycle? 2. Would halving get priced in to upcoming Bitcoin cycles? It seems like halving cycle was not priced in to Bitcoin over the first several cycles, even though the halving schedule is known in advance, unlike gold mining where mining and production is not known and can go through periods of underinvestment in bear markets. 3. What is the potential for Bitcoin to be THE winner based on Lightning and other Bitcoin overlays vs potential for Etherum and other altcoins? 4. Does higher electricity cost for Bitcoin often cited by bears create significant risks, for example, (a) by Bitcoin to be less competitve vs altcoins or (b) by over-concentration of miners in jurisdictions with cheap electricity? 5. The current pricing correction in Bitcoin seems to be happening despite significant institutional adoption. Is this just a "normal" 30% volatility, or is there something more going on here? 6. Is there a wave of institutional adoption of Ethereum and other altcoins also coming in 2021, or are there real hurdles for institutional adoption beyond Bitcoin? I'd be grateful if others could point me to relevant resources, as clearly there are many experienced persons in crypto here, and I am still learning.

As an engineer, I've watched network effects play out in action. They really are difficult to surmount by competitors once they truly become dominant. As an example, Microsoft poured billions of dollars into Windows Phone development, developed a massive ad campaign, bought (and subsequently spun out) Nokia, and even directly funded app developers to build apps for their platform in an attempt to overcome the network effect that the iPhone and Android had already achieved. Ultimately, it was all too little too late. Even though the Windows Phone launched in 2010, just 3 years after iPhone and maybe 1-2 years after Android, they had already missed the mark. All the app developers had poured their resources into learning iOS dev and Android dev, and the U.S. market had already half saturated with smart phones by then. They were stuck with a chicken and egg problem to bootstrap their ecosystem (need apps to get users, need users to get app devs) and no amount of billions could save them from that problem. When I look at ETH, I see this same iOS-like foothold that I just do not see being seriously challenged by any existing crypto platform. The apps being built on top of ETH are attracting more app developers which is fueling this massive DeFi growth we are seeing in the past year. There's huge network effects with issuing your token as an ERC20 token (that is, an Ethereum standard token) because it is instantly available to trade on any Ethereum wallet or app. Their main risk factor is failing to scale at this point. If they pull off the ETH2 transition in a smooth way over the next year or two, ETH will probably be unstoppable and will suck up all the capital and developer resources (even more than it already does). That's not to take away from Bitcoin, which I believe has the digital gold narrative on lock. But you know, there's more and bigger markets than gold, and if ETH is able to host them, I just don't see the limit to its growth potential in that circumstance.

$BTC : Programmed money $ETH : Programmable money $XTZ : Self evolving programmable money

In Bitcoin, you don't have a voice. In Ethereum, you don't have a voice. In Tezos, you have a voice. The decision isn't hard.

Thanks RP. Great read. I'm fascinated by Metcalfe's Law. Like many, I haven't had the inclination to dive into a lot of the Alts & will likely stick with the herd - bitcoin & ETH. This is a fascinating time in finance all around. I worry somewhat that the WSB movement turning up en masse in crypto will drive it to crazy prices that may make my hair blow back ! Still, I've had a glass of wine now and feeling more optimistic.

Bitcoin's goal is far more important than all other coins. It's trying to end the exorbitant privilege of the Global monetary reserve that allow a country to dominate the world. All the rest is futile.

Soo Good, Great fundamentals and deconstructed just enough for the layman to understand.

I Love You Raoul!

Thanks Raoul for sharing this article. Very informative. As newbies like myself continue to understand the Crypto market anything we watch, or read can be goof or bad information, though with your site we know the narrative is to inform us with good information. Thanks - Joe Hendrickson

Thank you Raoul and Team

Thanks Real Vision

Thank you!

Thank you for such a great report. The thing that scares me most are regulations.I am afraid they are not gonna help this industry.

great analysis and insight, but can you dig deeper into transactions? Santiago says the value of a digital asset has to trade above the underlying compute costs (OpEx +CapEx) - true, but - in Bitcoin's case this means mining rewards and transaction fees have to exceed mining costs; as mining BTC rewards halve every four years, transaction fees need to take the strain over time - but what are the scenarios? more transactions (but constrained by the protocol at ~7 tps), much higher per txn fees (but constrained by economics) or much lower costs (but constrained by the hash rate which has to remain high for the network to be secure)? - no transactions, no network utility, no value, so there has to be transaction growth is the answer massive volumes of off-chain transactions (eg the Lightning network) at virtually zero cost, but settled in aggregate periodically on-chain at a high fee? in which case, does this solidify the investment case for BTC as a SoV, or weaken it?

Thank you very much for providing this analysis. Great work Real Vision!

Thank you very much for providing this analysis. Great work Real Vision!

Thank you very much for providing this analysis. Great work Real Vision!

Thank you very much for providing this analysis. Great work Real Vision!

Thank you very much for providing this analysis. Great work Real Vision!

Thank you very much for providing this analysis. Great work Real Vision!

Thank you very much for providing this analysis. Great work Real Vision!

Thank you very much for providing this analysis. Great work Real Vision!

Thank you very much for providing this analysis. Great work Real Vision!

Thank you very much for providing this analysis. Great work Real Vision!

The download button is not working for me.

well written as well as great exposure for people like myself still new and trying understand macroeconomics and just economics in general.

To extend the bubble of bubbles talk, what would be the value of a network of networks? Basically, the value of the interoperability between the bitcoin network, the ethereum network and any other networks that rise this cycle.

Excellent research report Raoul. 3 comments. 1) On Twitter: Take it with a big grain of salt. Too many anonymous Twitter-ppl out there, who just tweet w/o really thinking things through. I am very selective with people I follow, practically ignore 95% of all accounts/comments from anonymous accounts. It's in a way a weird place: one can post the most outrageous/silly/insulting/snide comments&content, without being held accountable (How would that work in real-life? NOT). Also increasingly much spamming from bots, scams being posted -- Twitter should really improve their surveillance. Either way, I digress :-) 2) On ETH: I believe you maybe wrong. I figured out over the past few months that something is off. I followed your narrative for a while. Yes it's the no.2 crypto, yes it has practically a monopoly, benefits from network effects etc. Nevertheless, I realised more and more that techies had difficulty with "high gas fees", were not happy with the way ETH is governed etc. I looked what Dapps were really running on ETH and was disappointed on the lack of depth&substance (sushiswap, seriously ?!). Development activity started to lag compared to developments for/on other chains. Vitalik controversy. A bit like a ship without a captain, like a Wikipedia, hoping contributions will all be constructive and things get better. I couldn't quite put my finger on it, but I felt I was on to something. I couldn't be bothered to really get to the bottom of it. So I just parked it for a couple of weeks. 3) Rather than focus on the negative ("what's wrong with ETH"?), I thought: let's focus my analytics & brainpower elsewhere. Mid-December I had 4 other tribes in the running - I had invested sizeable-yet-bearable-loss amounts in XRP, DOT, ADA and LINK. When Ripple got sued (Christmas), within a week I sold (no ifs and bits) with a small loss. That tribe got busted :-) I paid a small price, but learned a valuable lesson. It was then down to 3 tribes only: DOT, ADA and LINK. LINK is also important tribe but I see/expect no fireworks there yet. Kind of the hardworking horse. DOT I haven't looked into sufficiently. The more research I did, the more I liked what I saw in the ADA tribe, in random order my 5 Why's for Cardano: 1️⃣ Bold vision on the future of finance (not just cheaper/faster transactions/Dapps) 2️⃣ Impressive developer community, "scientists with a purpose" 3️⃣ Founder (track record, persistence, more than data skills) : a mathematician who's been in the crypto industry for over a decade. The guy has humour, is open, sometimes makes a mistake. A genius with a well-rounded skill profile (unlike a Vitalik IMO). 4️⃣ Scientific approach (monetary engineering/mathematics) : they take their time for development, roadmaps, roll-outs etc, which is a good thing! 5️⃣ Staking rewards: these approx 5% rewards (paid out in ADA's) reduce volatility: staked ADA's take a week or so before the holder can sell them. About 70% is staked. Clever as these stakings create more loyalty of holders to Cardano. The rewards get paid out steadily, I believe the first time after a 2 week waiting period (also clever!) Bitcoin as a tribe I'd summarize as: big ego, brash, alpha-male, "get-rich-quick", "fuck-all", Scaramucci/Tony Soprano/Max Keiser --> force is the dominant trait, like a Gorilla/Godzilla; Cardano as tribe is more like: humble, "I have your back" --> intellect/humbleness/social as opposed to "me, myself and " are the dominant traits I see, in animal terms more like a dolphin or elephant.

Raoul Pal my I suggest to look at the theory of Theory of Evolutionary Risoning. It new and in contrast to some aspect to Darwinism, but it still apply here.

Several issues and assumptions are made and not accounted for in this analysis. 1) the friction and barrier to entry for bitcoin to become a stable currency with nominal velocity is not adressed. Stock to flow has great weakness in that it compares flow, which is currently retail and volatile with a decreasing stock - not representative of a currency characteristics. 2) the transaction value for bitcoin to prosess a payment has risen exponencially (not decreased as promised), and curiously lett out of the presentation. 3) most of the miners (the professional ones) be affected by the CO2 quitas which will raise their cost of capital. 4) there is currently debated increased VAT on electricity for miners and this has been put inplace in scandi. 5) also goverment and etc, I can go on but dont want to spoil the mood. But hey ... lets all go buy bitcoin.

Thank you Raoul for another very informative and thought-provoking piece! I work in the fertilizer industry and just yesterday I saw in an industry trade publication that a $270 M Intra-African Fertilizer deal was completed using blockchain. I've never seen this before. The transaction was managed through Singapore using dtledgers blockchain technology. When viewing dtledgers website it appears the deals are settled using XRP. The deal is between OCP of Morocco and Ethiopia. Blockchain allows the deal to be completed in under two hours versus the 3 weeks to complete a normal transaction. International fertilizer exports are worth > $57 Billion USD a year. The chief exporters are places like Russia, the Gulf States, Egypt, Morocco, China, Iran, Nigeria etc. Places that may not want to use USD, which is the way most transactions are priced. This is part of OCP's digitization strategy with the aim to "reduce the trade finance gap in Africa and boost trade between African countries particularly the fertilizer sector". I thought it was a groundbreaking example of the use of blockchain and crypto.

Great report. I do wonder sometimes though when you seem so interested in other cryptocurrencies: Does it not bother you that they are not decentralized? For me this is a core tenet - a requirement that can not be compromised on. 99,9% of the other cryptocurrencies do not fulfill this requirement. Either they have a company and a CEO behind them, or they have all nodes centralized in a datacenter (ETH), or there are too few nodes, or the node operators are colluding (EOS). Or they are using POS which means the richest people control the protocol. I just keep asking myself, what's the point if it's not decentralized? Then why use a blockchain - which is the slowest database in existence - it only makes sense to use this tech if fulfills the core requirement of decentralization imho.

Great report thanks Raoul.