Wile E. Coyote

Published on: January 21st, 2021

Raoul is getting increasingly concerned about the global economy and the markets overall – as we dangle off the edge of a potential cliff…

Comments

  • GP
    Geoff P.
    22 January 2021 @ 14:28
    I find your position on btc, gold, etc. very contradictory to your position on equities. Ostensibly your appetite for btc and gold is money flooding by the central planners. This thought process should also keep you bullish on the flows into equities. When we consider the earning power of companies vs thin air assets like btc and gold one should be even more bullish equities. I'd love to hear you expound upon the idea that the greater fool theory is a good one for gold and btc but not for companies which will not only be direct beneficiaries of fed policy and capital flows, but also from stimulus checks (UBI, etc) flowing into their products. In short equities benefit from a double whammy of stimulus at the capital flow level and the consumer spending level where btc and gold are only beneficiaries of the capital flow level (and a much more reduced capital flow level at that). If for example you imagine a company like amzn and aapl etc, as not a company that sells things and makes money but as an idea of nothing like btc, then perhaps you'd find greater attraction? It seems their ability to make money is a negative in your eyes and I'm curious why that might be?
    • DM
      Don M.
      28 January 2021 @ 15:31
      Good point Geoff and one I've also asked. Why does Fed intervention inevitably prop up BTC and Gold, regardless of what happens, but that same intervention doesn't help stocks accordingly?
    • CK
      C K.
      30 January 2021 @ 18:31
      I agree that interventions following another crash are likely to also prop up equities - whether to the current levels or not is to be seen. But I'm not sure that Raoul is saying the opposite - he's just saying "what happens to equities after a hit? I have no idea". He doesn't usually make predictions about equity (unless it's for a global liquidation event that will affect all assets) because, as he says, they are emotionally rather than macro driven.
  • JP
    Javier P.
    24 January 2021 @ 22:55
    The market has to burn all this short term calls , that have push the market parabolic, if this does not happens is going to be very difficult to change that market
  • SB
    Samuel B.
    22 January 2021 @ 05:31
    Price point to add to ETH? < $1150?
  • BA
    Benjamin A.
    22 January 2021 @ 03:58
    Thanks for the info... Love the graphs. I just have two questions, do you expect ETH to hold its 3-5% value of BTC when bitcoin climbs? If the answer to the previous question is yes, I would suspect that ETH would also have a major correction coming at or around the time of the BTC correction... agree?
    • BA
      Benjamin A.
      22 January 2021 @ 04:10
      Note** (I love the clarity that the graphs reveal, not necessarily the tough data that it shows and the effects it might have on millions).
  • KB
    Kevin B.
    22 January 2021 @ 03:05
    Interesting bearish cautionary message. Unique perspective given the massive YOY base effects on growth, great fiscal impacts looming and the very likely rolling over of peak virus. Still respect the perspective, but this feels like there are several months to play out before Wile E Coyote is over the cliff.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    22 January 2021 @ 02:58
    Thanks Raoul, You should share with the pros what Alts you bought on the dip.
  • Dd
    David d.
    21 January 2021 @ 20:40
    Raoul, Thank you for the clear and concise update. Question: How will you let us know to start adding to our TLT March 19, calls ? Also, today's price is .15 cents for those TLT calls.... shouldn't we be buying now? Seems cheap, and a good risk / reward given what may be coming in the next two months. Thank you!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 January 2021 @ 21:10
      I'd like to see price action in our favor...
  • LS
    L3O S.
    21 January 2021 @ 21:00
    Thanks Raoul, I am new to Pro and thank you for your insights and analysis....Feeling much safer managing my money now with RV in the brain's trust. Great stuff and well worth the investment.
  • KA
    Kelly A.
    21 January 2021 @ 20:28
    Fundstrat has been showing that in USA the rate of covid infections is starting to roll over. They agree, however, that the growing carelessness --or even callousness of anti-maskers and the complacents could overcome the rolling over of cases, especially given the more contagious variants. Anecdotally, I'm on the sidewalks for about 40 minutes every day. Fewer and fewer people/runners wearing masks. To Raoul's point: be prepared to play each way or even both ways! Thanks. As always, great stuff.
  • JS
    J S.
    21 January 2021 @ 16:27
    Thank you for sharing. Such incredible circumstances. On point also with J. Grantham. Contrasting view on Lakshmann recent interview, at least for the next couple of quarters. Do you think the direct checks and fiscal stimulus if approved soon enough can extend this euphoria longer 2022? Best, J
    • JS
      J S.
      21 January 2021 @ 17:53
      Tony P -> in a line: it's a bull market ... cyclicals are the horse to ride ... the trick is to stay in the saddle.
    • KA
      Kelly A.
      21 January 2021 @ 20:24
      Interesting your comment about Lakshmann. I followed him for a couple years. Finally, I had enough. He never got it right. Raoul has made me money. Laks-man, never.
  • WM
    Will M.
    21 January 2021 @ 17:44
    Excellent piece with "clear and present danger" warning.... I believe Joe Biden may come to rue the day he won the presidency. Just as an aside, few people I know, including my relatives and friends see any big deal with the US likely spending another few trillion $s this year. Nobody cares, history be dammed, government will solve the problem by creating vast spending programs. Janet Yellen will work closely with the FED and before 2021 is out, another $4 trillion are likely to have been "created". Restarting credit growth is critical and they know it. I am reminded by some long term analysts that as long as confidence persists, there will be no problem.........
  • MC
    Marcin C.
    21 January 2021 @ 17:35
    "With Covid rising sharply and economies slowing rapidly, there is a rising chance that investors get caught like Wile E. Coyote, legs spinning, off the edge of a cliff..." This part of economies slowing rapidly is not that simple, because on a YoY basis in 2Q21 with expected US GDP growth almost 11% and more than 3% in 3Q21 we're going to see the one the biggest growths EVER recorded. The same will happen for (some) companies' results in this quarters. Of course this will be mainly due to the base effects, but nevertheless.

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.