Wile E. Coyote

Published on: January 21st, 2021

Raoul is getting increasingly concerned about the global economy and the markets overall – as we dangle off the edge of a potential cliff…


  • JS
    J S.
    21 January 2021 @ 16:27
    Thank you for sharing. Such incredible circumstances. On point also with J. Grantham. Contrasting view on Lakshmann recent interview, at least for the next couple of quarters. Do you think the direct checks and fiscal stimulus if approved soon enough can extend this euphoria longer 2022? Best, J
    • KA
      Kelly A.
      21 January 2021 @ 20:24
      Interesting your comment about Lakshmann. I followed him for a couple years. Finally, I had enough. He never got it right. Raoul has made me money. Laks-man, never.
    • JS
      J S.
      21 January 2021 @ 17:53
      Tony P -> in a line: it's a bull market ... cyclicals are the horse to ride ... the trick is to stay in the saddle.
  • MC
    Marcin C.
    21 January 2021 @ 17:35
    "With Covid rising sharply and economies slowing rapidly, there is a rising chance that investors get caught like Wile E. Coyote, legs spinning, off the edge of a cliff..." This part of economies slowing rapidly is not that simple, because on a YoY basis in 2Q21 with expected US GDP growth almost 11% and more than 3% in 3Q21 we're going to see the one the biggest growths EVER recorded. The same will happen for (some) companies' results in this quarters. Of course this will be mainly due to the base effects, but nevertheless.
  • WM
    William M.
    21 January 2021 @ 17:44
    Excellent piece with "clear and present danger" warning.... I believe Joe Biden may come to rue the day he won the presidency. Just as an aside, few people I know, including my relatives and friends see any big deal with the US likely spending another few trillion $s this year. Nobody cares, history be dammed, government will solve the problem by creating vast spending programs. Janet Yellen will work closely with the FED and before 2021 is out, another $4 trillion are likely to have been "created". Restarting credit growth is critical and they know it. I am reminded by some long term analysts that as long as confidence persists, there will be no problem.........
  • KA
    Kelly A.
    21 January 2021 @ 20:28
    Fundstrat has been showing that in USA the rate of covid infections is starting to roll over. They agree, however, that the growing carelessness --or even callousness of anti-maskers and the complacents could overcome the rolling over of cases, especially given the more contagious variants. Anecdotally, I'm on the sidewalks for about 40 minutes every day. Fewer and fewer people/runners wearing masks. To Raoul's point: be prepared to play each way or even both ways! Thanks. As always, great stuff.
  • Dd
    David d.
    21 January 2021 @ 20:40
    Raoul, Thank you for the clear and concise update. Question: How will you let us know to start adding to our TLT March 19, calls ? Also, today's price is .15 cents for those TLT calls.... shouldn't we be buying now? Seems cheap, and a good risk / reward given what may be coming in the next two months. Thank you!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 January 2021 @ 21:10
      I'd like to see price action in our favor...
  • LS
    L3O S.
    21 January 2021 @ 21:00
    Thanks Raoul, I am new to Pro and thank you for your insights and analysis....Feeling much safer managing my money now with RV in the brain's trust. Great stuff and well worth the investment.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    22 January 2021 @ 02:58
    Thanks Raoul, You should share with the pros what Alts you bought on the dip.
  • KB
    Kevin B.
    22 January 2021 @ 03:05
    Interesting bearish cautionary message. Unique perspective given the massive YOY base effects on growth, great fiscal impacts looming and the very likely rolling over of peak virus. Still respect the perspective, but this feels like there are several months to play out before Wile E Coyote is over the cliff.
  • BA
    Benjamin A.
    22 January 2021 @ 03:58
    Thanks for the info... Love the graphs. I just have two questions, do you expect ETH to hold its 3-5% value of BTC when bitcoin climbs? If the answer to the previous question is yes, I would suspect that ETH would also have a major correction coming at or around the time of the BTC correction... agree?
    • BA
      Benjamin A.
      22 January 2021 @ 04:10
      Note** (I love the clarity that the graphs reveal, not necessarily the tough data that it shows and the effects it might have on millions).
  • SB
    Samuel B.
    22 January 2021 @ 05:31
    Price point to add to ETH? < $1150?
  • GP
    Geoff P.
    22 January 2021 @ 14:28
    I find your position on btc, gold, etc. very contradictory to your position on equities. Ostensibly your appetite for btc and gold is money flooding by the central planners. This thought process should also keep you bullish on the flows into equities. When we consider the earning power of companies vs thin air assets like btc and gold one should be even more bullish equities. I'd love to hear you expound upon the idea that the greater fool theory is a good one for gold and btc but not for companies which will not only be direct beneficiaries of fed policy and capital flows, but also from stimulus checks (UBI, etc) flowing into their products. In short equities benefit from a double whammy of stimulus at the capital flow level and the consumer spending level where btc and gold are only beneficiaries of the capital flow level (and a much more reduced capital flow level at that). If for example you imagine a company like amzn and aapl etc, as not a company that sells things and makes money but as an idea of nothing like btc, then perhaps you'd find greater attraction? It seems their ability to make money is a negative in your eyes and I'm curious why that might be?
    • CK
      C K.
      30 January 2021 @ 18:31
      I agree that interventions following another crash are likely to also prop up equities - whether to the current levels or not is to be seen. But I'm not sure that Raoul is saying the opposite - he's just saying "what happens to equities after a hit? I have no idea". He doesn't usually make predictions about equity (unless it's for a global liquidation event that will affect all assets) because, as he says, they are emotionally rather than macro driven.
    • DM
      Don M.
      28 January 2021 @ 15:31
      Good point Geoff and one I've also asked. Why does Fed intervention inevitably prop up BTC and Gold, regardless of what happens, but that same intervention doesn't help stocks accordingly?
  • JP
    Javier P.
    24 January 2021 @ 22:55
    The market has to burn all this short term calls , that have push the market parabolic, if this does not happens is going to be very difficult to change that market