Insider Talks – July 2017

Published on
July 10th, 2017
Duration
25 minutes

Insider Talks – July 2017

Featuring Raoul Pal, Julian Brigden

Published on: July 10th, 2017 • Duration: 25 minutes

In the first issue of Insider Talks Raoul and Julian introduce the Macro Insiders product and outline their current macro themes. The conversation focuses on inflation and interest rates, covering wide-ranging topics – from European monetary policy to the retirement crisis coming in the US. Raoul and Julian also discuss how to spot and risk manage market bubbles and what they will be looking for in July.

Comments

  • KB
    Krystof B.
    31 July 2017 @ 14:17
    I would go with long 30y treasury to get slightly better yield (but I understand using 10y because the difference is very small) and more upside potential for coming deflation crisis. Cash & cash-flow will be important to take advantage of the situation. But I will wait a little longer to see some worries about the US credibility (to get higher yield) before deflation will take yield down again. Lets see what happen. Great work with this video and other uploaded pieces.
  • DM
    Dean M.
    26 July 2017 @ 16:16
    awesome stuff! I agree with others that it would be helpful to understand a bit more on how to execute the trades with retail brokers like Fidelity; another helpful idea for Julien - not sure if the bubble analysis was setting up trade ideas to watch on the short side if neckline breaks (NVDA etc.) or simply to get long again after 40% decline for a trade on the bounce
    • NB
      Neil B.
      30 July 2017 @ 05:02
      I also am interested in how ( or if ) MI will provide some facility in between the monthly 4 week segment approach to providing some incremental updates / tickers / recommendations for trades which related to the bigger picture Macro themes and callouts made in prior segments. I have not seen or heard anything relating to that concept ( i.e. some incremental guidance in between if and when a well timed opportunity relating to previously covered themes or specifics arises ).
  • NB
    Neil B.
    30 July 2017 @ 04:59
    I've also been following the lower rates / higher bond prices theme thru tracking the TNX and TLT ( etf ). If the Options trade Raoul proposed is off the table for some of us, as alluded to by others it seems TLT ( would rise with rate fall ) would be one way to play it although the reward would not be near what the Options trade might apparently provide if it works out.
  • YG
    Yves G.
    19 July 2017 @ 15:04
    Hi, could you please explain me more how to execute the trading idea with the call long/short in Eurodollar 2018december future. What kind of options could be used fot this idea, please not confuse with that i want a trading proposial , i m aware of the risc and only want to ask objectively how one could do that trade with only risking the premium, so calculated loss in worse case scenario. Because simply long/short on future options could go far more wrong as only risking the prime my broker told me. Hope you can help me out, best regards Yves and thank you for all you´re doing for us!
    • DP
      Devraj P.
      24 July 2017 @ 15:37
      2nd to request the same ..
    • TC
      Tom C.
      27 July 2017 @ 23:09
      Options on the eurodollar futures, not the futures themselves. Read his piece "The Short End" where he details the trade: "I am going to look to buy the December 2018 98.75/99.25 call spread"
    • CT
      Chakrit T.
      28 July 2017 @ 18:03
      Yes, this can be traded using Interactive Brokers platform. The symbol is "GE"
    • LM
      Lawrence M.
      30 July 2017 @ 04:44
      Interactive Brokers requires a 10k min deposit. I'm open to giving this a shot, as a learning experience, but I'm not ready to transfer 10k from my current brokerage just yet. Any brokerage ideas with a smaller requirement? I purchased some TLT back when Raul was talking about it on RV, may just add to the position to get some exposure to the possibility of lower rates. Thanks guys, your products have really reignited my interest in finance (Real Vision, RV Publications, and now this).
  • RM
    R M.
    25 July 2017 @ 16:29
    Excellent. I am with Yves are wanting to hear a bit more on how to execute the EuroDollar trade. (Fidelity doesn't trade futures, but options may be avail). Terrific discussion.
    • JB
      Jason B.
      29 July 2017 @ 20:08
      One of the earlier RV video's Raoul did was the thesis for UST rates falling over the next 12 - 18 months, with the investment vehicle being TLT. I also don't have access to EuroDollar futures, and think TLT is a great way to benefit from lower interest rates.
    • GM
      Gerald M.
      30 July 2017 @ 04:04
      You can consider going long the 10-year note as Raoul has done. Yield is near the upper line on a descending channel so you will know when to exit if you are wrong (the yield breaks out of the channel). Typical retail brokers will not trade options on the Eurodollar contract. For example, TD Ameritrade will allow you to trade the Eurodollar Dec18 Future (do not do that as it's way too risky and not the trade Raoul recommended), but they won't let you trade the options. Use Interactive Brokers to get access to options on Futures. Make sure you know what you are trading. You are looking to trade options on the GE Futures contract and *not* the contract itself. Because it's a spread, make sure you get the direction right too :-)
  • JM
    James M.
    12 July 2017 @ 17:33
    Excellent intro to MI. Looking forward to the rest of the series. I would be grateful if Raoul or Julian could give us an optimal way of buying volatility as buying calls on the VIX as I think Raoul has explained previously is a terrible way to do it. I think Vol has to be the trade of the year, the compression due to everybody and their dog selling Vol has to be near or at an all time high. Thank You.
    • JM
      James M.
      28 July 2017 @ 15:01
      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/free-money-jeff-gundlach-bought-sp-puts-vix-lows
    • JM
      James M.
      28 July 2017 @ 15:02
      Simple is always best!!!
    • JB
      Jason B.
      29 July 2017 @ 20:12
      Buying calls on VXZ?
  • WE
    William E.
    29 July 2017 @ 18:06
    All I can convey is thank you and excited about the ride ahead.
  • SB
    Simon B.
    27 July 2017 @ 18:32
    A lot of interesting ideas discussed that will creat opportunities in the coming months. Will you be providing the exact timing and best vehicles to trade these ideas?
  • RW
    Richard W.
    24 July 2017 @ 08:44
    Very interesting - I would appreciate some guidance as to how to learn to initiate the more sophisticated trading strategies referred too - eg type of broker, references etc.
  • JM
    James M.
    24 July 2017 @ 02:15
    Initial feedback - Outstanding production quality. Audio and video are excellent. I just love the multi-camera angles on Raoul & Julian. Moderator was perfect!
  • PW
    Paul W.
    18 July 2017 @ 16:03
    I have a very strong feeling that this is what I have been looking for. Your timing was perfect; the offer could not have dropped into my inbox at a more apposite moment. Thank you both for putting this together.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    15 July 2017 @ 21:11
    Excellent beginning guys and I love the moderator aspect of keeping the discussion focused---clearly he is up to speed on both of your positional thinking. Clearly your team has thought this whole thing through and they are to be complemented. The presentation, both Video and Audio, are coming in sharp and crisp. Renaissance in the making guys.
  • MB
    Max B.
    13 July 2017 @ 19:21
    Great intro...can't help but think this is the start of something special. Any chance of RV corp bond issue on the horizon :)
  • NH
    Neil H.
    12 July 2017 @ 14:37
    fabulous. I got more out of this discussion in just a few minutes then I did with much of the research I am reading. Thank you for putting this together.