Insider Talks – June 2019

Published on
June 7th, 2019
Duration
35 minutes

Insider Talks – June 2019

Featuring Raoul Pal, Julian Brigden

Published on: June 7th, 2019 • Duration: 35 minutes

An escalation in the Trade War is still underestimated by markets. In this month’s Insider Talks, Raoul and Julian look at the dislocations flaring up across financial markets and consider how aggressive the Fed’s response will need to be. Filmed on June 06, 2019.

Comments

  • RW
    Richard W.
    20 June 2019 @ 07:59
    re bitcoin - got a bit lost in the weeds I think
  • J
    Jim .
    15 June 2019 @ 21:47
    What is the most effective way to short copper in a non institutional portfolio? Thank gents always thoughtful and thought provoking?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 June 2019 @ 00:26
      Copper futures. Most brokers should allow that.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    13 June 2019 @ 23:17
    Wondering about a long dollar play by buying puts on the FXE LEAPS?
  • lD
    lance D.
    10 June 2019 @ 18:53
    YO! Julian are you selling bonds here?
    • JQ
      JACK Q.
      13 June 2019 @ 01:35
      tighten stops here bro
  • lD
    lance D.
    11 June 2019 @ 12:57
    talk to me baby
  • GH
    Gary H.
    10 June 2019 @ 13:35
    Enjoyed the conversation. Seems most market participants are in Julian's camp that the Fed can punt the cycle. Everyone talks about the Fed cutting as an "insurance" cut.
  • JS
    J S.
    9 June 2019 @ 23:48
    Any chance Trump makes a truce with China for 2020 re-election? Lower rates + no tariffs. 12 to 18 more months of buyouts.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    9 June 2019 @ 17:15
    I would like to hear more about Raoul's strong dollar thesis.
  • MC
    Minum C.
    9 June 2019 @ 15:53
    Would you expect there to be a period of time when USD strength coincides with gold price strength? If yes, are we coming up to such a period? If not, why not? I noticed the gold/copper ratio chart has been in a parallel upward channel starting early 2018 which is around the same time of the first bout of volatility indigestion for equities.
  • WM
    Will M.
    8 June 2019 @ 22:29
    Great discussion. I remain torn because of the hugely divergent views from many quality analysts out there. $ up $ down, Gold up Gold down, S&P up S&P down. The only thing I am sure of is Bitcoin is a total speculation and could make many people very rich but it is absolutely not a store of wealth..........I fully agree that government will target Bitcoin owners aggressively. Thats gold, silver and maybe one or two other assets, but not stored in the country of your tax domicile.
  • OS
    Ola S.
    8 June 2019 @ 09:00
    Great point about the “cold war scenario” that nobody believes in. Frankly, it’s just a question of how “western” China has become in caring about quarterly numbers and reflexivity of markets. If they truly believe that the trade deal on the table is not in their interest, the only logical choice is to wait it out. Some probability that Trump is out in a year, 100 percent certain that he’s out in five. That’s a lifetime for markets. But not that long for China, really. And they know for sure that any pain the markets inflict between now and next year moves the probability higher that Trump is out sooner.
  • RH
    Rob H.
    8 June 2019 @ 03:59
    I was wondering what you two think of Luke Gromen’s thesis. I think he had some very interesting points about the fed needing to lower rates to control the price of money, and the reason behind it is because of the huge debt not a bad economy. Basically he said the fed needs to cut rates the finance the US government.
  • CH
    Clifford H.
    8 June 2019 @ 03:27
    Great stuff guys, really enjoyed the conversation. So we know that the fed will act, likely in July or September at the latest, and likely quite aggressively. My question is once they act, what will we need to see to be confident that they can reflate and extend the cycle? USD lower? Copper/cyclicals higher? Rates higher? Spreads tighter? I’m trying to ascertain what the signals will be for either scenario (reflation or meltdown) to have a game plan ready. Really appreciate your work.
  • ap
    andrew p.
    7 June 2019 @ 23:18
    Thanks, gents... and a great call on rates globally. The equity market reaction on Friday after the payrolls and the huge technical reversals higher leads me to think we may be on our way to a blow-off top in equities. I prefer to stick with long the short end and long Em v the Russell. I also think it is time to go all inSilver and Gold, after Powell's comments during the week, sounded like Draghi in 2012, whatever it takes! Silver is under-owned into its seasonal low for the year. Gold/AUD made contract close higher, I would focus everyone's attention to this week's Australian employment number, if it is weak, I think the RBA may also need to shock and awe with 50, the governor made it clear employment is the key metric they are watching. Dec Bank Bills are great value for that trade, and long gold AUD, APerry, Sydney
    • FO
      Frederic O.
      8 June 2019 @ 02:26
      I'm also wondering about gold and silver and if it's time for them to shine. In 2008 they rose sharply going in to the recession while rates and the dollar fell. As soon as the rates went flat, only then did the dollar explode higher and crashing gold and silver, only for them to rise once again as QE started. Any thoughts here?