Insider Talks – March 2019

Published on
March 14th, 2019
Duration
26 minutes

Insider Talks – March 2019

Featuring Raoul Pal, Julian Brigden

Published on: March 14th, 2019 • Duration: 26 minutes

Raoul and Julian ponder whether a dovish FED is enough to keep stocks up and look at higher probability trades in other asset classes for this softening global economic backdrop. Filmed on March 11, 2019

Comments

  • lD
    lance D.
    6 April 2019 @ 14:19
    anybody getting black listed hear?
  • TS
    Tyler S.
    27 March 2019 @ 19:14
    I guess Flash Updates are no longer a thing
  • RM
    R M.
    14 March 2019 @ 16:01
    As far as I can tell, only part 1 of Julian's piece on capitalism is out: RIP Corporate Capitalism: Part 1, from February 28 2019 Meeting of Minds. Expect part 2 in March issue?
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      26 March 2019 @ 16:30
      Ladies and Gents ...Part II on the way
  • CS
    C S.
    17 March 2019 @ 00:07
    Does anybody have a link to the write up Julian mentioned at the end of the discussion? Had a quick look, couldnt find it. Tks
    • lD
      lance D.
      17 March 2019 @ 17:33
      'Had a quick look couldn't find it' ,,, Really ? G'wan give it another bash
    • LM
      Lawrence M.
      20 March 2019 @ 03:35
      I'm interested as well. I didn't see anything with that title in the older publications.
    • lD
      lance D.
      20 March 2019 @ 11:44
      the first part was in the last meetings of minds it was titled something like- RIP Capitalism is dead - if it was not this i will be scratching my head too
    • ph
      phil h.
      20 March 2019 @ 22:59
      Yes, I’m confused too. Would like to read this.
  • BC
    Brent C.
    14 March 2019 @ 17:17
    Even though there was no real conclusion, I thoroughly enjoyed this. It appears to me, the data we've seen coming in is as expected. It also seems to me, there should be no real expectations of improvement in data over the next 2 quarters or so. Which would generally lead one to assume you should be selling this rally. Your hold up, however, appears to be price is not confirming, and so many have been too early calling an end to this bull market over the years. However, that may be precisely why the time is right to do so. Overwhelmingly, the data we've seen thus far is as close to recessionary as we've seen since 2011. Rosie, on the TV side out today, confirming as much. What's clear to me at least at the moment, is equities are not priced for what seems to be an imminent margin contraction & sales decline. The most glaring example being the rally off the lows in the Semi's since 12/24. Coincidentally, the semi's offer a decent lead on US GDP, and according to Russell Clark, the last two times we've seen a decline of this size in Korean Semi export year on year was 2001 & 2008 (page 2 on attached link) It actually seems fairly clear to me what comes next. https://www.horsemancapital.com/marketviews/russell-clark/2019/02/semiconductors-kospi-index-and-suppressed-volatility
    • BC
      Brent C.
      20 March 2019 @ 14:30
      Lakshman out with a piece today confirming cyclical leading indicators not turning up yet either. And doesn't see the 2nd half rebound in the cards given their data sets....
  • HO
    H2 O.
    16 March 2019 @ 20:33
    Disappointed there has not been more or any analysis of the reasonably high-frequency flows into the US the have been supporting equities and HY. The conclusion that markets are waffling around near a top and we are just going to wait for a catalyst is not very satisfying. Financial conditions have been easing for reasons far beyond equity market strength, and as for when this might all come crashing down, there are clear and measurable triggers that will tell us when this process has run its course.
    • AG
      Adam G.
      19 March 2019 @ 15:05
      I have the utmost respect for these 2 guys, however.... I found the content lacking somehow. I wonder if there other clients get more and when do they fold the cards and admit that they are wrong.
  • JL
    J L.
    19 March 2019 @ 14:54
    something has to give... should one perhaps buy ootm puts on both SPX and DXY?
  • WM
    Will M.
    17 March 2019 @ 18:03
    Good honest discussion. No point recommending trades if confidence is not strong.
  • lD
    lance D.
    16 March 2019 @ 18:23
    Its conversations like these that remind me of the earlier insider talks where we were encouraged to go through our trades/portfoilios bc of that video i now regularly like to see where my exposure/correlation is.... so my job this weekend is to see what sectors/industrys is most pos/neg exposed to $ also most Neg/Pos corellations & exposed to oil.. I think this is all we can do for the moment - I'm on the look out for the 'BAT PHONE' to FLASH aka 'flash update' Thanks Guys
  • JU
    Joshua U.
    16 March 2019 @ 15:37
    Really appreciate the transparent dialogue and disagreement. Tremendous value to help see both sides of the argument. Additionally, I truly appreciate that you both have not been trigger happy to send out Flash Updates/trade recos. The right trade is often no trade at all, waiting for the signal to be much clearer and the probabilities to be higher before pulling the trigger. That patience is deeply valued. Thank you!
  • JK
    James K.
    16 March 2019 @ 03:25
    Nothing wrong with the statement: “My current position is that I have no position”....Never try to “push” a trade.... Starting to lighten up on my PM/Miners positions a bit ...Gold/Miners are potentially setting up a H &S pattern... Thoughts ...? Great discussion....it’s what it is right now ... Thx. Jim-
  • se
    scott e.
    14 March 2019 @ 20:38
    Raoul Without Fed Bonds sounds a fair play this but the probability of more intervention from data or politics as Julian says has to be reasonably high, 5th time lucky. Other than tips ( allowing running hot) what might be a useful way to play bonds?
  • SV
    Steven V.
    14 March 2019 @ 19:18
    The Fed is talking about ending QT to placate investors. Powell said the government shutdown, which is currently to blame for the economic slowdown, should pass through the data by Q2. The Fed is just trying to calm investors until Q2, when the Fed will figure out the shutdown only made things worse. The global slowdown is due to QT -- the reduction of the Monetary Base and World Dollar Liquidity. Full employment is not inflationary when you have a massive amount of near-zero interest rate debt. The economy needs full employment so consumers can borrow in attempt to offset the rapid destruction of currency caused by zero-percent interest rates.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    14 March 2019 @ 16:56
    Thanks guys. Sometimes the play you don’t make or the call you don’t make is the right play or call. After 50 years of being an avid Horseplayer and an active Handicapping Tournament player I have found that sometimes a spot and horse you have been waiting for “tics all your boxes” including generous odds....and yet...you just get an inking that something is missing that you can’t put your finger on. Years ago FOMO (and the potential for great ‘street creed’ with fellow players) would win out and I’d pull the trigger...only to have a Loss for some reason that could only be seen in hindsight. Patience may be an underrated virtue and I often send players I am mentoring a copy of “Winnie and the Pooh” with a quote highlighted—“Sometimes when there is nothing to do, I do nothing”. I know this is long winded, but what I do want to assure you both is that the value of MI is there, IMO. We know you won’t get it right every time, but as you both point out we are just trying to get the odds on our side.
  • JE
    Jos E.
    14 March 2019 @ 16:54
    Hi guys, surely demographics make high inflation unlikely?
  • BG
    Benjamin G.
    14 March 2019 @ 15:17
    Raoul, after the past few weeks what is your current opinion on GOOGL?