Insider Talks – September 2017

Published on
September 7th, 2017
Duration
49 minutes

Insider Talks – September 2017

Featuring

Published on: September 7th, 2017 • Duration: 49 minutes

In the latest episode of Insider Talks Raoul updates his short Oil thesis and concludes a 3-part analysis on the retirement crisis. Julian, on the other hand, highlights his bullish view on gold and gives more details about his view on European inflation and markets. Filmed on 31 August, 2017.

Comments

  • lD
    lance D.
    12 September 2017 @ 16:33
    Hi i hear a lot of ways of playing the ideas using options and futures etc .. I trade cfd's are these fine to trade a market down turn? i have read somewhere that these (contracts for difference) can be called in at anytime is this likely to be in a market down turn ? also if i am currently short in my cfd positions and the market turns down (to my advantage) and the borrowed shares are called in would i still receive the gains made up to the time they get called in ?. hope that makes sense. any help would be greatly appreciated on this .cheers
    • EC
      Edward C.
      21 September 2017 @ 11:25
      Hi Lance, thought I replied to this but looks like it never went through. In short, listed derivs are centrally cleared, so virtually no CP risk. CFD's...you have CP risk....Lehman, Knight Capital, LTCM.... For recalls, if it's a DM market with a developed SBL (stock loan market) market, unlikely to be recalled. Say XOM US. However, if you are shorting in EM / Frontier markets it's a different story. i.e. I buy an Indonesia name on swap. So inventory sits on broker balance sheet. They give me synthetic exposure. You want a short...so they sell that inventory and write you a short swap. So broker has no inventory, just long/short swaps making financing pnl. If I want to sell....since not an SBL market, you will get recalled. Hope it helps. Ed
    • lD
      lance D.
      3 October 2017 @ 11:57
      Hi Edward , that was helpful and greatly appreciated thankyou and all the best . Cheers
  • EC
    Edward C.
    19 September 2017 @ 12:11
    Raoul, in relation to Exxon...Steve Bregman made a great point about this stock if I recall correctly, in relation to the constant bid due to ETF membership across the board, regardless of fundamentals. Value, Growth, High Div, momentum etc. it's in them all for liquidity/scale. If these inflows to passive continue unabated for next 2-3 years, how does this affect the trade sizing you would put on and time horizon of trade? Thanks, Ed p.s. fascinating stuff
    • JL
      J L.
      20 September 2017 @ 13:02
      Good point but funnily enough it hasn't been going up with the market despite this fact. I wonder what that tells us
    • EC
      Edward C.
      21 September 2017 @ 11:27
      Ya, fair enough was the case, but back on the grind with the recent oil moves.
  • JV
    Jason V.
    9 September 2017 @ 07:24
    Raoul and Julian, A question regarding position sizing/allocation. I know this is a rather complicated and subjective issue, but I'm very eager to hear your thoughts. For example, with Julian's 'Short DAX' or Raoul's 'Exxon Mobil' trades, what do you think would be a wise allocation? 1%, 2%, 5%, more?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 September 2017 @ 12:43
      Tactics bets should be 1% or or less in terms of risk of loss. Strategic bets, which are fewer and further between can be 5% to 10%, sometimes more.
    • JV
      Jason V.
      20 September 2017 @ 07:38
      Excellent. Thanks very much, Raoul. This is extremely helpful.
  • RI
    R I.
    7 September 2017 @ 18:26
    Raoul - In prior reports, you indicated that if the DXY trades below 93 and worst-case at or below 92, then you would likely need to change your global macro views. Currently, the DXY has breached 92 and is trading around 91.45. When will it be safe to say the dollar bear market (and consequently global reflation) have won?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 September 2017 @ 12:44
      No, as O have an entire investment framework around this i tend not to be super stop level focussed and give things some wiggle room On tactical trades I tend to be more stop loss focussed.
  • DP
    Devraj P.
    13 September 2017 @ 03:48
    RP - mentioned about too many retires on exact same date. Would you share the date please?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 September 2017 @ 12:41
      when they reach 70.5... which is happening in increasing numbers each year and peaks out around 2022 or so.
  • GM
    Gerald M.
    11 September 2017 @ 16:10
    The BIS has an important paper out about the demographic changes ahead: http://www.bis.org/publ/work656.pdf
  • DY
    Dmytro Y.
    8 September 2017 @ 16:30
    finally guys started real talk and real emotions behind! i like it!
  • BK
    Bruce K.
    8 September 2017 @ 15:13
    RP: you referred to Sam Zell's ELS. The chart has been "up and to the right" for the entire year ... until this morning. Down significantly, one assumes, on hurricane Irma news. Keep an eye on the chart. And Godspeed to everyone in Florida.
  • MB
    Max B.
    8 September 2017 @ 12:18
    2 tremendous minds....love it.
  • DW
    Daniel W.
    7 September 2017 @ 17:05
    Raoul, what is the ticker symbol of the REIT you were talking about? Thanks
    • TM
      Todd M.
      7 September 2017 @ 17:37
      Believe that is ELS. Essentially at all time highs. Agree with RP on many things, but I wouldn't wade into this one here.
    • RG
      Remi G.
      7 September 2017 @ 17:41
      Equity Residential (EQR)
    • RI
      R I.
      7 September 2017 @ 18:26
      Raoul - In prior reports, you indicated that if the DXY trades below 93 and worst-case at or below 92, then you would likely need to change your global macro views. Currently, the DXY has breached 92 and is trading around 91.45. When will it be safe to say the dollar bear market (and consequently global reflation) have won?
    • JH
      John H.
      7 September 2017 @ 19:10
      "Importantly, unlike the 2005 HIA episode, the proposed deemed repatriation tax is expected to be mandatory, but does not require actual repatriation. Meanwhile, we find that the large bulk of what would be repatriated is held in USD denominated assets, and is already located in the U.S. under offshore beneficiaries. • We refresh an exercise we first conducted last year examining the 16 firms that comprise 50% of total unremitted earnings. Using those findings to extrapolate assumptions for the rest, we estimate that of the $2.2trn stock of untaxed offshore earnings, the potential USD inflows are probably at most $460bn, or 2.4% of GDP. We do not expect a significant impact on USD funding markets because the vast majority of unremitted earnings are 1) “overseas” only for tax purposes, and are in fact held in U.S.-based custodial banks and 2) roughly 85% invested in a combination of corporate bonds, Treasuries and agencies."
    • SH
      Stu H.
      7 September 2017 @ 19:30
      I'm long biscuits, tea bags and beige clothing... Job done.
    • CA
      Courage A.
      7 September 2017 @ 20:44
      Great back and forth here with two different opinions. It's good to challenge one's views and not be dogmatic about them.
    • IO
      Igor O.
      8 September 2017 @ 07:17
      I remember Raouls online advertising "investigation" WPP short worked just fine.
  • PG
    Paul G.
    8 September 2017 @ 06:40
    RP: you mentioned "shatz" or something futures and wondered if you might give the name as did quite get on cast
    • IO
      Igor O.
      8 September 2017 @ 07:09
      Schatz GBS on Interactive Brokers
  • JV
    Jason V.
    7 September 2017 @ 20:52
    Julian, What's your time horizon for the GDX trade, in options are we looking 6 months, 12 months out? And specifics on the Schatz trade, from the options perspective? Many thanks, Jason
  • DW
    Daniel W.
    7 September 2017 @ 17:57
    Thanks guys!