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Dec 03 2020 . 38 MIN
Reopening Fake Out Sectors, Positive Jobs Data Surprises, and Renewed Stimulus Hopes: DB Dec3, 2020
Real Vision editor Max Wiethe is joined by both Jack Farley and Ed Harrison in this multi-part edition of The Daily Briefing. In part one, Jack and Max discuss the swirling optimism and pessimism surrounding reopening favorites like airlines and movie theaters and debate whether these industries and others like commercial real estate are in store for a new normal post-COVID. In part two, Ed Harrison returns to update his rough winter thesis in light of today’s positive surprise in jobs data and the renewed hopes for fiscal stimulus as news of good-faith bipartisan discussions and support from President Trump for slimmed down stimulus indicate a potential for more positive surprises. As well, they look forward at the pitfalls that still remain and tomorrow's more important jobs report. In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin digs deeper into today’s jobless claims number to analyze why the weekly jobless claims fell last week after rising for two consecutive weeks and what this means for the labor market's recovery.
Dec 02 2020 . 34 MIN
Four Fiscal Cliffs Between Now and the Inauguration: DB- Dec2, 2020
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins editor Max Wiethe to discuss the potentially negative jobs data that Ed is watching out for later this week. Harrison also highlights the four fiscal cliffs between now and the inauguration that could potentially cause permanent economic damage and undermine the optimism surrounding the vaccine rotation trade. They also discuss the importance of perceived duration in how certain assets react to these surprises in real economic data. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper discusses the new ADP numbers, the latest data on the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S., the U.K.'s emergency-use authorization of Pfizer and BioNTech SE's vaccine, and president-elect Biden's nominations for key economic positions in his administration.
Dec 01 2020 . 37 MIN
Keep Your Wits About You: Inflation Creeping In: DB Dec1, 2020
Bleakley Advisor Group CIO Peter Boockvar joins senior editor Ash Bennington to discuss a potentially higher inflationary environment for 2021 and why that may put central banks and markets at odds. Boockvar reviews this year’s market trends and dissects the latest ISM manufacturing data, pointing out reports of supply chain disruptions, labor cost pressures, and a general rise in inflation. With markets looking past recent COVID-19 data with promising vaccine announcements, value is growing increasingly attractive here in the U.S., the U.K., Europe, and Asia. However, Boockvar explains his concerns of markets tightening with the onset of growth and whether the Fed will choose to let the yield curve steepen or prevent it. As CPI increases are the kryptonite of central banks, should the inflation narrative take hold, Boockvar expresses how this may shock global bond markets. Real Vision's Haley Draznin explores the deep dichotomy between the real economy and equity markets, as all major U.S. indices were up today despite Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin shutting down the Fed's emergency loan programs for main street businesses.
Nov 30 2020 . 38 MIN
Liquidity Reversal: The Rotation Trade Speed Bump: DB - Nov30, 2020
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by editor Jack Farley to evaluate the value rotation trade and the challenges it will face in the coming months. As November comes to a close – a month that saw record-breaking appreciation in value stocks, cyclicals, and small-caps – Ed and Jack analyzes how rising COVID-19 hospitalizations will impact economic behavior. They then look at liquidity going forward, and how monetary conditions will affect markets over the next few months, incorporating Ed’s interview with Michael Howell and Jack’s upcoming interview with Teddy Vallee. Ed and Jack close by discussing the Government Accountability Office’s report on incorrect jobless claims data, as well as GM’s partial back-pedaling out of its deal with controversial electric vehicle manufacturer Nikola.
Nov 29 2020 . 29 MIN
Banking Disruptors and Insured Crypto Yield
Robert Sharratt, managing director at Cresco Fin, joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO, to discuss how crypto is disrupting the traditional banking system and how Cresco Fin is leveraging crypto to provide a higher rate of return on investor savings. Sharratt explains the approach Cresco Fin has taken to provide yield on crypto assets, while also providing insurance, making it comparable to traditional bank accounts. Filmed on November 23, 2020. Key Learnings: We are entering a new era of banking ushered in by blockchain technology. Many new companies are utilizing crypto infrastructure to provide enhanced benefits to their depositors. Providing insured yield on crypto assets may be the next major transition for both crypto and banking companies.
Nov 28 2020 . 84 MIN
The US-China Global Dominance Debate and Our C.Y.A. Society: The Interview
Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisers launches his new series with one of his favorite topics, China, and one of his favorite experts, Louis Vincent Gave, CEO of Gavekal Research. In this interview that fringes on debate at times, Gave and Green attack the question of whether the U.S. or China is better positioned since the beginning of the COVID crisis. As well, they discuss a topic they can agree on from Gave's most recent pieces from Gavekal Research, "The Guiding Principle of Our Time". In this piece, Gave lays out the argument that decision making from politics to markets is being driven by one simple factor -- C.Y.A., or "cover your ass". Viewers can find this piece in full here: https://rvtv.io/3oePjKe. Filmed on October 20, 2020. Key Learnings: China not responding to COVID with rate cuts and massive fiscal stimulus has consequences for currency strength, foreign investment flows, and real interest rates. Viewers will come away with an understanding of the important factors to pay attention to when determining whether the U.S. will continue its global dominance or if this is the beginning of a new Chinese century.
Nov 28 2020 . 33 MIN
The Background for Black Friday's All-Time Highs
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and senior editor Ash Bennington discuss the all-time highs set on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite on this holiday-shortened trading day in U.S. equity markets. Harrison and Bennington also take a step back to evaluate the broader context for rising stock prices during the month of November. Specifically, the pair explores the apparent recent decrease of political risk in the U.S., the impact of increasing case counts and virus fatalities, the potential effects of a Covid-19 vaccine on the global economic climate, and the risk of future lockdowns and growing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.
Nov 26 2020 . 47 MIN
Thanksgiving "Ask Me Anything" with Ed and Jack
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Jack Farley for a Thanksgiving “Ask Me Anything” special edition of the Daily Briefing. Sourcing questions from the Real Vision Exchange, Jack asks Ed questions about whether the U.S. will enter a second round of lockdowns, and whether the equity market could once again undergo a major crash. Ed shares his views on the future of debt, deflation, and commodities, over the next 30 years, as well as his technique learning new languages. Jack and Ed share the ways in which they follow market news, as well as their views on the difference between accounting antics and downright fraud. Lastly, Jack and Ed give an inside look at Real Vision’s ongoing mission to democratize finance.
Nov 25 2020 . 39 MIN
5 Big Questions for a Double-Dip Recession:DB -Nov25, 2020
Max Wiethe and Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, discuss Ed's outlook for a winter double-dip recession in the U.S. and the most important questions for determining the breadth, depth, and market implications of this prediction. How bad will the pandemic get before this wave can be arrested? How severe an economic brake will have to occur to get the virus under control? What short- and long-term impact will this have on businesses? What can policymakers do to mitigate downside risk and prevent worst-case outcomes? How will all of this feed through into asset markets? In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin, examines the juxtaposition between the markets hitting record highs and the broader economy as initial jobless claims rise for a second week in a row.
Nov 24 2020 . 37 MIN
The World Is Getting Back In Business: DB - Nov24, 2020
Senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes back Tony Greer of TG Macro to make sense of today’s price action as the equity markets roar to all-time highs. After the pair briefly discusses the significance of the news that Janet Yellen will likely be named Treasury Secretary, Tony shares his analysis on the value rotation away from the tech giants into cyclical reflation plays like banks, casinos, hotels, and energy. As Tony says, “the world is getting back in business”. Ash and Tony then look the performance of Bitcoin as it approaches its 2017 highs, and explore the future of gold as an inflation hedge. Lastly, Tony gives an update on his trades in the cannabis sector. In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin analyzes the market rally to record highs as the Dow surpasses 30,000 for the first time ever and looks into the anticipated rebound in the economy for the second half of 2021.
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