Crypto, Crisis, and Coronavirus

Published on
March 27th, 2020
Duration
53 minutes

Crypto, Crisis, and Coronavirus

Ahead of the Curve ·
Featuring Dan Tapiero, Tuur Demeester, and PlanB

Published on: March 27th, 2020 • Duration: 53 minutes

In the inaugural episode of the Real Vision series, “Ahead of the Curve,” we tackle the topic of cryptocurrency during the time of coronavirus. Real Vision is joined by three true crypto experts: Dan Tapiero of DTAP capital, Tuur Demeester of Adamant Capital, and the anonymous investor known only by his Twitter handle, “Plan B” (@100trillionUSD). In this deep dive for crypto investors, the guests explore recent price volatility, the risks and advantages of bitcoin during financial dislocations, and the underlying case and fundamental valuation of bitcoin. Hosted by Real Vision’s Ash Bennington.

Comments

Transcript

  • DR
    Derrick R.
    29 March 2020 @ 14:34
    Ash, I appreciate that you brought up counter points to the bitcoin bull case, but isn’t an obvious risk to bitcoin the existence of other cryptocurrencies, some of which address the problems (scale, speed, efficiency, forced stakeholders) in bitcoins inherent design? People should know that bitcoin is cryptocurrency, but cryptocurrency is not bitcoin.
    • Bv
      Berend v.
      30 March 2020 @ 18:21
      There are already thousands of alternatives. But they all have to deal with the same problems; trilemma's and patents: - The trilemma represents the trade off between 3 facets; speed, security and decentralization. You cannot have more of 1 particular aspect, without sacrificing some on another. For example with XRP. It has a way higher Tx count, but it trades that against decentralization and because of that, security. XRP's ledger for example, is far too big to be on a normal person's node. It also is still far to dependent on Ripple Lab's contributions. Not to mention the fact that Garlinghouse (CEO Ripplelabs) indicated that XRP will follow monetary laws. That makes it susceptible to the whims of US politics (like sanctions). In effect, it is a hybrid of both Mastercard or Visa and Bitcoin. - The majority of the protocols are open source and a few have some unique patents to their founding groups. The result of this, is that most cryptocurrencies are simply a mix between open source protocols and less decentralization. Almost none of them offer anything new. Not to mention, there is a real risk of mixing these protocol ideas. The more are in play, the more complicated it is to keep track of flaws and issues in the system, the more exposed it is towards exploitative hacks. So as a result, those that try something entirely new and untested, often fail. Because their goal is to move fast and break things. But it costs them their earned trust. Their reliability. Like IOTA for example. This is why Bitcoin is still king. Because it doesn't innovate fast. This means is not exposed to liabilities in code. It is scrutinized heavily. This creates stability. Stability is good. If you want more proof. Have a look at the long list of Bitcoin forks that exist. There are close to a hundred in that graveyard. All claiming to offer an upgrade that provides better utility, a peg to gold, scalability, Satoshi's original vision (barf). Truth is, this is evolution at work. There are very few alternatives that can thrive. Ethereum, I think, is one of those. Because it did offer something unique. It wasn't a cheap derivative effort to scam people out of their money with lofty promises. This does not mean that Bitcoin cannot be overtaken. But the current ecosystem has no shortage of competitors and challengers. They have all failed so far. Brutally. Even Nano, which imo, has a pretty original technology setup. It is in many ways, technologically superior. But in lacks some other features, like smart contracts. Most importantly, it lacks the network effect. Every day Bitcoin lives longer, more developers work on it. Other currencies need to catch up to that, before they even stand a chance. This is unlikely to ever happen. And, like with Ethereum, even if their developer base starts to rival that of Bitcoin. They are two different beasts. With each their own purpose and development methods. Bitcoin is one of slow, conservative steps. Ethereum is one of bizarre exploration, where things can go wrong and that is accepted.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      31 March 2020 @ 04:46
      Derrick, Great question. There are, broadly, two positions on this issue. The first is that other protocols are needed to address the issues you've just raised. The second opinion, which is very much in the ascendancy right now, is called 'Bitcoin Maximalism' — which is the belief that bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency worth focusing on — and that bitcoin can, should, and will address those issues with so-called "layer 2 solutions", which are additional services that can be layered on top of bitcoin to solve the issues you just mentioned. It's a fascinating debate to watch — and one we will be following up on on RV soon...
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      1 April 2020 @ 18:11
      @Berend, where did you get these "facts" on XRP? They are all wrong.
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    1 April 2020 @ 15:26
    I've been in the crypto space since 2011. The decline was proof that Bitcoin is a store of value, Bitcoin, Gold and other easily liquidated assets declined due to massive margin calls spilling over from equities. This problem was made worse by BitMex, whose liquidation engine went rampant trying to reduce risk for the exchange. The main problem, of course, is that BitMex doesn't use a standard secured collateral arrangement--they treat your position as part of their risk controls. They'll liquidate you at a given point, and if market slippage is large, they'll use other users accounts to fund the difference. Its a slap-dash way to manage risk, and in this instance it created a negative loop that was interrupted only by direct intervention. With the Federal Reserve opening swap lines to foreign banks, commercial credit bailouts, and essentially printing non-stop to plug the rush for liquidity, Bitcoin will show its strengths--namely not diluting or devaluing its purchasing power like the USD. The USD index has reverted from its spike, and with foreign demand eventually ebbing there's a good chance in my view that the US Dollar reverts and inflation comes roaring back in force---after an initially deflationary event in asset prices which we're seeing now, especially in oil. The future is bright for Bitcoin, especially after the reward halving event. Annual inflation will be extremely low, even compared to other currencies. Great video, just wanted to add a few points.
  • TP
    Tom P.
    31 March 2020 @ 21:32
    I feel like much of this stimulus is a bail out of landlords. Very often landlords, both commercial and residential, are leveraged. Their business model relies on their tenants not all defaulting at once. They are short correlation, to use the derivatives vernacular. The current situation will result in tenants on a mass scale failing to pay their rent on time. Thereby forcing landlords to default on their loans. The stimulus should include provisions to prevent tenants from being evicted. The landlords should be allowed to deleverage or (shock!) lose money and run a business model that is less dependent on leverage and an implicit backstop by central banks / governments. This won't happen.
  • ii
    ida i.
    31 March 2020 @ 11:39
    This must have been taped around 8 or 10 days ago, I believe that most of us are not interested in having a stable flow of videos (i.e. one video a day), but we are interested in having fresh videos, I would have preferred to see the Dan Tapiero part immediately and the rest as it was taped, I have very little time as it is, seeing something Dan said 10 days ago is not so great, too bad because the guy is great.
  • ii
    ida i.
    31 March 2020 @ 11:27
    taped on???
  • PD
    Peter D.
    28 March 2020 @ 09:35
    A quick shout out to RV/Ash Bennington. This guy has produced a couple of good pieces now, asks good questions has good grasp of the issues, etc... That's probably not a coincidence. In an interview format, the questioner makes a difference.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      31 March 2020 @ 04:48
      Thanks, Peter. Much appreciated.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    28 March 2020 @ 14:14
    Ash Bennington has really stepped up sine the WFH situation at RV. Bravo Ash. Hope to see more and more of you in the future.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      31 March 2020 @ 04:48
      Thanks, Steve. We've got a great team — and we're all jumping into the breach to cover this crisis.
  • AP
    Ash P.
    29 March 2020 @ 18:20
    Dan's bemusing epidemiological tourism aside this was a great interview and I'll be watching this one again. I don't recall anyone drawing attention to the widening spread between physical spot and paper gold. If GLD can't keep up and you can't get a hold of physical because 1) you're locked in (even DTap evidently) and 2) there isn't any to be had anyway...then BTC REALLY start to become relevant. Great stuff Ash - btw you've got some serious 'nihonteki' going on there....natsukashii.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      31 March 2020 @ 04:40
      Thanks, Ash! (I've always wanted to say that...)
  • AS
    Ash S.
    30 March 2020 @ 21:04
    Would be super helpful to stamp the date the interviews are recorded as so much happens in a week. Then we know these are the views of the expert at that point in time. Great interviews, thank you.
  • PG
    Petter G.
    29 March 2020 @ 21:16
    To all of you who still wonder "why Bitcoin?": Bitcoin is *not* a piece of open-source software. If it was, then there would be thousands of Bitcoin networks out there. But there aren't. There's just one. So here's the thing: Bitcoin is a movement. It's an ethos that promotes reliability, predictability and self-sovereignty. It's the antithesis to the Silicon Valley mindset of "move fast and break things". Bitcoin is a world class brand backed up by a devoted community and by some of the smartest developers in the world. It's just about the only project that's ever been created where the inventor(s) did not do it to become rich. Anyone could participate from day 1 on equal terms. No pre-mined coins, no majority shareholder. And that's still the way it works today. These things are not replicable. No other crypto project will ever be able to "be Bitcoin" better than Bitcoin. The soft parts about Bitcoin is where the market value comes from. However, if some new technical feature comes a long in another project that is truly useful in the context of sound money, then the Bitcoin project will implement that feature. The hard parts of a project are much easier to copy than the soft parts. That's "why Bitcoin".
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      29 March 2020 @ 21:26
      Bitcoin is *not* a piece of open-source software. If it was, then there would be thousands of Bitcoin networks out there. But there aren't. It literally IS open source software, and there literally ARE copy cats like BCH, BSV. In addition, there already ARE alternative crypto with from-the-ground-up design and build distinctions as well as consensus methods that are superior. Bitcoin holders who hope it serves as digital gold want everyone else to buy bitcoin for obvious reasons. At the same time, miners, whose goal is to make as much money as possible off the transactions find themselves at odds with bitcoin investors and users goals. Guess which population actually gets to vote on what changes in bitcoin, even the 21m supply limit? To say there are not viable and strong alternatives to bitcoin is objectively false. This is like telling everyone during the dot com boom to invest in Lycos and ignore everything else.
    • PG
      Petter G.
      30 March 2020 @ 16:40
      a Thanks for sharing your thoughts Derrick. Some further comments from me: 1) You seem to have missed my point. There is only *one* Bitcoin project. That's factually true even though there are thousands of copies of the source code. So therefore Bitcoin must be much more than *just* the code (I agree that the code is part of the project obviously). 2) Everyone talk their own book, I'll agree to that :) Users, node operators, exchanges and other businesses that are building on top of Bitcoin want the project to succeed. None of them benefit from trying to sabotage the project. Miners are service providers that get paid *in bitcoin* for securing the chain. If they collude and try to sabotage the project they'll crash their only revenue stream. So everyone in the system is incentivized to make it work. When it comes to voting it's simple. Node operators (users, businesses, exchanges) chose which chain they want to follow. Miners are not in control of which chain that is valid (check the block size wars of 2016-2017 if you want to understand why this is the case). 3) There are many networks out there that *technically* is equal (or perhaps even better) than Bitcoin. So why are they not more valuable? Because Bitcoin is so much more than just the code. It's a network of different things that together create something that's extremely hard to displace. Also, when Bitcoin was a tiny network it was never congested, always cheap etc etc. Most other networks are simply too small to have started to see their limitations so it's very easy for these people to say (but also misleading) that their networks are X times better than Bitcoin *today*. Furthermore, comparing a cryptocurrency network to an application or a website is 100% irrelevant. A network is very very different compared to an application (the switching costs and their "stickyness" are on the opposite sides of the spectrum).
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      30 March 2020 @ 17:54
      Petter, what I wrote might sound anti-bitcoin but in fact I do hold some, as I think cryptocurrency will be important in the future, and due to its first mover advantage and strong network, it will likely survive and maybe retain its #1 position among crypto. With that said, bitcoin has some issues that other projects have resolved. It's heresy in the bitcoin community to say that PoW is obsolete, but when the price hit $18,000 in 2017 and the network crashed, it became clear there is an existential risk to this whole thing working. At the same time, we have XRP that can settle in 4 seconds, and is secure without PoW. Again, I hold bitcoin, but I am diversified into other cryptocurrency. We don't know who wins, yet. With that in mind, and to address your comment that it is not an application I will use a network example, here are quotes from the founder of Friendster, a social network that existed prior to Facebook and was taken over: "The problem," he says, "was that Friendster was having a lot of technology problems." Friendster had raised an additional $13 million in funding in 2003 and, according to Abrams, investors weren't focused on patching up the service properly, let alone responding to the threats posed by upstarts like Facebook. "The fact that we didn't launch those products was a problem, but even more fundamentally, people could barely log into the website for two years," he says. "By the time Facebook and MySpace was doing those things, Friendster had lost a lot of market share in the U.S. for stability issues."
    • PG
      Petter G.
      30 March 2020 @ 18:18
      @Derrick: I agree that Bitcoin isn't perfect and that there are limitations as to what can be achieved on the base layer. But to say that the network crashed in 2017 is not true. It did exactly what it was supposed to do. The fees were outrageous because of high demand for block space, but the blocks kept coming through every 10 minute as always. Regarding PoW: Please let me know if you find another consensus algorithm that is equally secure and 100% permissionless. I'm not interested in XRP because it's got nothing to do with liberty or sound money (also not sure why anyone would be interested in a project where the founders are regularly dumping millions of tokens on their own unsuspecting community members). Thanks for the references. Interesting. But again, Bitcoin is not having technical issues. It's working as-is. The only other network with substantial network effects is Ethereum. But that network *do* however have technical issues and until those are resolved I'd recommend people to stay away from it.
  • WW
    William W.
    27 March 2020 @ 19:29
    This is a very nice video. Can one of the Crypto experts explain the risks with "51% Attack" ?
    • JW
      JW2 W.
      27 March 2020 @ 20:04
      Easy to look up on the web, but essentially it means a still theoretical take-over of more than 50% of the computer power necessary to run the BTC network. This is means that in theory you can determine what goes into the network/ledger. Note that the energy you need to muster this attack is probably similar to that of a small country. Rather expensive :-) Plus the network is set up so that it does not allow you to do a lot of things like creating new coins (because they need to be validated by other network actors and they wont support you). In fact the network will just startup around you, leaving you on a digital island as it were. Not sure I captured everything, but for BTC a 51% attack is not realistic. At least, that is the theory as we know it :-)
    • SH
      Sven H.
      30 March 2020 @ 14:40
      It's not simple to deflect the dangers of a 51% attack at all. Sure, it costs tremendous amounts of specialized hardware and quite some energy to perform it and that means it's very expensive - in regards to the hardware it might not be easy to obtain - but I hold it with James Rickards here: If we talk about Bitcoin getting a significant market share of the monetary system (via offering a vehicle to assure the store of value as well as a direct payment medium alike) the competition we are suddenly talking about is composed of countries, economic zones, central banks and, in essence, the global elite. What appears as very expensive within a certain marketplace can become negligible in another. What are we talking about here? 10 billion $? We just saw a 2.2 trillion $ injection into the US economy alone. And if the incentive of the attacker is not monetary gain but the destruction of the usability of the blockchain and the undermining of the trust of the people in this new form of currency, the argument that it is not worth the expenditure falls flat. It would not be a single attack either - in that case some damage would be done but it would be fixable - but a relentless series of attacks that would make bitcoins in it's worst case almost unusable. The Bitcoin blockchain does not discriminate against miners/ nodes, so you can't label nodes as hostile in any sense - thus any malevolent participant is invited to the party. And don't expect people to care. You can label bitcoin as tax-evasive, drug-related, dirty. People who don't hold bitcoin won't suffer financially and might even feel acknowledged in their skepticism. So far bitcoin did not find a very wide-spread adoption. That it is not controlled by any central point does not translate into the narrative that it's money of the people. Bitcoin ownership is very centralized. If bitcoin goes through the roof, it won't help towards a flattening of the global wealth distribution - quite the contrary. And isn't that the most essential criticism towards centralized monetary control, that it leads to an unfair situation in which too few end up with too much? Please tell me I'm wrong and why. @Tuur D., very interested in your thoughts on this as well.
  • PS
    Pavel S.
    27 March 2020 @ 11:53
    Key properties of Bitcoin: 1. Unconfiscable. If you remember 12 to 24 words of your seed phrase, you can reinstate your bitcoin wallet anywhere anytime. You can cross the borders without any properties, only the seed phrase in your head. Whilst your house, gold and money in the bank can be seized at the "moment of need", your bitcoin is unconfiscable. 2. Reliable store of value. The monetary policy of maximum 21m bitcoins is encoded in the protocol. Imagine they could not print more US dollars because the technology encoded its fixed money supply in the base layer of the protocol. 3. Decentralised. Trustless. Open. Permissionless. Always online. Bitcoin network will always be there in the internet and you can voluntarily transact with it. Nobody can shut it down. Nobody can restrict the service. You can voluntarily opt into the new system. Yes, the technology still has a few more milestones to tick like 1. adoption with every online merchant, 2. immediate transaction (scalability and speed) and 3. user friendliness for mainstream user BUT there is a plan and a massive intelectual and social capital deployed to improve the cryptocurrencies and financial infrastructure. Some of the smartest people in the world are working on it. I have chosen plan B with 30% of my net worth. Rest is cash and trading (yes I am shorting Google) and enterpreneurship. Trust yourself and inform yourself.
    • AH
      A H.
      28 March 2020 @ 00:03
      re: Nobody can shut it down. it's entire existence is dependent upon the "grid". Electricity and internet; of which the integrity of those hardware/utility systems are completely out of your control.
    • JO
      Johnny O.
      28 March 2020 @ 21:34
      I'm all in, but it's for speculative and meltdown purposes. I don't think we can call something this wild a reliable store of value.
    • PS
      Pavel S.
      30 March 2020 @ 10:43
      A.H: You´re right but consider this - your point about "grid" shutting down is a theoretical risk. In normal circumstances Bitcoin works just fine. Johnny O - it is designed to be sound money. It has a fixed supply of coins, fantastic monetary policy. However, it is still very early on so it is a young market with a lot of speculators. As the adoption continues, bitcoin will become more robust. Also consider this - 1) zoom and appreciate in the past 10 years bitcoin held value much better than fiat cash (in fact it has been the best performing asset class in the world) and 2) the short-term volatility is normal in the new asset in an OPEN market. The 24/7 trading makes bitcoin anti-fragile and strong in the long-term.
  • js
    john s.
    27 March 2020 @ 21:38
    Plan B's real identity is Javier Bardem
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      28 March 2020 @ 01:26
      Lol! Spot on
    • NP
      Nick P.
      29 March 2020 @ 21:24
      Wrong. It's Bruce Wayne. Everybody knows that.
  • js
    john s.
    27 March 2020 @ 19:09
    Why cant I see find this on the App?
    • BR
      Ben R.
      29 March 2020 @ 14:44
      I have the same issue!!!
  • ZM
    Zachary M.
    27 March 2020 @ 15:11
    Bitcoin will not be the value protocol of the internet. For anyone actually interested in the protocol for digital value please check out The Interledger Protocol, (including all of you over at RealVision). ILP. https://interledger.org/ Feel free to ask me for more info. Crypto will change the world in the same way the internet did, but it will be on the back of ILP, which will be the router for value.
    • CR
      Chris R.
      27 March 2020 @ 15:20
      tl;dr "my crypto better than your crypto" /s
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      29 March 2020 @ 13:41
      Chris, INTERLEDGER means multiple ledgers supported, and ILP is an open protocol, not a “crypto”.
  • JI
    Janne I.
    27 March 2020 @ 15:36
    Can you do a video about ethereum and defi? Love the content thanks for making it!
    • JI
      Janne I.
      27 March 2020 @ 15:46
      https://bankless.substack.com/p/ethereum-is-an-emergent-structure Maybe get thease guys on?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      27 March 2020 @ 15:59
      On its way... watch this space...
    • PS
      Pavel S.
      27 March 2020 @ 16:24
      yeh Ryan from bankless is good and can speak in understandable way :)
    • CT
      Crispim T.
      27 March 2020 @ 18:46
      Why scam talk? We already have the traditional financial system if we can scams. Vitalik the policy-changing preminer with the eternally delayed ETH 2.0 Rube Goldberg Machine. Focus on BTC. It's all about money, not pipe dreams and wishful thinking.
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      29 March 2020 @ 02:57
      I thought BTC was “digital gold”, when people realized it could never scale to be money.
  • DB
    Drew B.
    27 March 2020 @ 17:31
    "the real interest rate, and look at the 5yr as an example has gone up even as the FED has been easing. So we went from -80 basis points to +50 basis points because of the drop in inflation expectations" -40:10 Can someone please explain more what this means, and what is "the real interest rate"?
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      29 March 2020 @ 01:33
      real interest rate = nominal interest rate - inflation
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    28 March 2020 @ 23:41
    Ok but not much new. Holding 50% drops is not a strong investor rather a wishfful investor. Bail in not relevant as this is not a banking crisis. Finally the concenses is buy gold and Bitcoin. Always wrong - so the med term money is elsewhere 😁
  • JO
    Johnny O.
    28 March 2020 @ 22:17
    An ongoing side issue is the difficulty of getting fiat into crypto. Plenty of new investors in plenty of countries would give it a shot if their banks and central banks were not so hostile to crypto exchanges having a receiving bank account. Even in jurisdictions like Japan and Singapore that have made positive noises about crypto and the services and software industry that it supports.
  • MG
    Manish G.
    28 March 2020 @ 20:16
    Brilliant! Just love this. Thanks for making this happen at just the right time.
  • CL
    Cyril L.
    28 March 2020 @ 13:16
    For the sake of historical precision, assignats were in existence during the French revolution, not before (though it was indeed in the 1790s; the revolution started in 1789). They were not among the causes of the French revolution (not sure if that's what he's implying, it's not clear), they were a feature of it. They lost all value eventually though, which I guess is the main point. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assignat
  • JW
    JW2 W.
    27 March 2020 @ 19:52
    Like the format, RV ! Even though I heard not much new - apart from the somewhat chocking statement by PlanB about banking bail-ins , especially knowing his day job is PlanA ! :-) - this video emphasized the role Bitcoin plays as digital money. We are seeng currency debasement in action. Surely this must undermine confidence in fiat currency. I read a twitter post the other day where someone was saying ‘why do we pay tax if the government can just print money’. Why do we indeed!. Equities are becoming more and more risky. The Bond markets are being undermined by helicopter money and ensuing inflation. Oil is going to 10 or less plus has a limited shelf life due to alternative energy. Traditional Finance is being deconstructed under our noses, plus whatever was left of ‘trust’ is being actively undermined even further. So, what investable assets are left? In fact, quite a few; BTC, Gold, other precious metals, not sure about soybeans and orange juice but I guess coffee is not a bad bet :-), a 1960 Ferrari Dino, antique furniture, whisky and wines (and rum for Raoul :-). Hell, I just bought another bitcoin.
    • GA
      Gerald A.
      28 March 2020 @ 02:34
      Wonder if bail-ins will still be a thing? Given in the last crisis, many banks were required to issue bail-in bonds (Total Loss Absorbing Capital - TLAC debt) which would be converted first before deposits.
    • JW
      JW2 W.
      28 March 2020 @ 08:01
      The fact that it is even debated scares me. Bail-ins are obviously a measure of last resort and come with all sorts of issues. The problem is that they are formalized as part of the European banking rulebook (since 2016 I believe). If you have the will & patience to read a paper on this, check this link https://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/wp/esrbwp7.en.pdf
    • JW
      JW2 W.
      28 March 2020 @ 12:47
      This is not good. PlanB on twitter: "Yes, Cyprus was a trial run and a "template" for next crises"
  • cm
    charles m.
    27 March 2020 @ 07:40
    If the gold supply halved in a day, the market wouldn't notice. Daily trading is circa $145 bn and new supply is around $500m. If you create large quantities of a new asset, such as an EM currency, you have high inflation and it devalues. If you have low inflation (Swissie, Yen etc), you get stability, not capital appreciation. Nor would you expect it. S2F will not work on bitcoin because growth is linked to demand, not supply. Low supply is why we all showed interest in the first place, because if it were high, few would reasonably expect capital gains. Low supply is great. Next, and to create riches, bitcoin needs to now get out there and boost demand. Innovation, network, utility and adoption are the key factors for growth. Bitcoin is a tech stock, not digital gold. @AtlasPulse
    • SM
      Shaun M.
      27 March 2020 @ 09:32
      Have you read PlanB's original article? https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25 He does discuss challenges to this in various interviews including the question of does demand matter to this model. The model has been confirmed by independent reviewers and is cointegrated.
    • cm
      charles m.
      27 March 2020 @ 09:57
      Yes sir, I have looked at it in detail. I have never seen so much enthusiasm for a two factor model since Markowitz.
    • CR
      Chris R.
      27 March 2020 @ 16:56
      @charles I agree the S2F model will break along the way. Doesn't mean its imperfection is worthless. " bitcoin needs to now get out there and boost demand" Well its not a company unlike most of the other altcoins. A few resources that might interest you History of Money https://nakamotoinstitute.org/shelling-out/ or Book: The Bitcoin Standard Bitcoins Social Contract Layer https://medium.com/s/story/bitcoins-social-contract-1f8b05ee24a9
    • KR
      Karl R.
      27 March 2020 @ 17:43
      Time will tell.
    • cm
      charles m.
      28 March 2020 @ 11:47
      @chris R. thanks for your response. I've read lots about money over the years. I'd add Money by Felix Martin to the list. To your point on the Medium piece, Hasu writes "There will only be 21 million bitcoins, issued on a predictable schedule (inflation resistance)". That is precisely the point. Inflation resistance gives it stability, not necessarily gain. Adoption gives it gain - the stats prove it. There are several false narratives on bitcoin out there. It isn't gold and supply reduction doesnt create value. S2F model is weak technical analysis dressed up as fundamentals. Bitcoin is correlated to equities especially internet stocks. 2014 and 2018 were the bitcoin bear years, and were also down years for social media stocks (see SOCL US). Internet money is correlated with internet stocks. Shock horror. I find it staggering so many poeple called it a safe haven. From the demise of fiat, sure, but otherwise it's a risk on asset and always will be. I'm hugely bullish btw - on the demand story. Internet comes out of this virus crisis stronger. Bitcoin is an internet stock. Buy bitcoin. I just can't stand false narratives. More on my site if interested ByteTree.com.
  • NA
    Nathaniel A.
    28 March 2020 @ 06:43
    That file cabinet is bumming me out
  • BP
    Bryce P.
    28 March 2020 @ 06:32
    Prison coin will end up being the most repressive thing in the history of mankind. It's the beginning of the BEAST system. WAKE UP!!!!!!
  • CJ
    Christopher J.
    27 March 2020 @ 19:48
    Take out i) Dutch guy a) halving coming up b) Bail=ins - don't keep cash! Great warning ii) Dan - OK this was a week ago but he has no idea about the human cost of this. Health consequences trump economic ++ . The health situation is absolutely disastrous - it is really really scary. We will run out of ventilators and people like you are going to be left to die because someone 5 years younger than you will get priority. This is why we need the lockdown. As a medic about to be drafted having received the basic training, I am shit scared. Most people have no idea how bad this is.
    • JM
      James M.
      28 March 2020 @ 03:08
      On point Christopher. I felt Dan's comment on the absolute numbers was surprisingly naive. It's the second order consequences of a saturated health service that need to be accounted for. As a fellow medic I wish you all the best with what is potentially to come.
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    28 March 2020 @ 01:23
    Crypto continues to lead risk assets and follow excess liquidity leading indicators... Watch for that to break and the true bull case develops, imo.
  • CT
    Crispim T.
    27 March 2020 @ 18:45
    Bitcoin (BTC) is going go be the biggest winner of all this. Give it a couple of years to capitalize on the chaos.
    • AH
      A H.
      28 March 2020 @ 00:27
      Please elaborate Crispim. Your soundbites are enlightening.
  • AH
    Alexander H.
    27 March 2020 @ 15:08
    I don't understand why people say bitcoin has no return. On the right exchange, you can get a TON of interest on it
    • EO
      Elena O.
      27 March 2020 @ 15:55
      Like u loan it to someone for use? How do u get interest on it?
    • BB
      Brian B.
      27 March 2020 @ 16:02
      BlockFi is one place you can get interest on your Bitcoin.
    • MB
      Michal B.
      27 March 2020 @ 20:55
      that is not a free return, you are buying risks: exchange fail risk, political risk, loan default risk, etc.
  • RP
    Raoul P. | Founder
    27 March 2020 @ 13:43
    I loved this. I found it super valuable and exactly the analysis I needed at this juncture as I add to my own bitcoin investments..,
    • BB
      Bradford B.
      27 March 2020 @ 16:30
      Can you release these videos a bit quicker? As you know, right now the market changes so much in the span of one week.
    • KR
      Karl R.
      27 March 2020 @ 17:45
      Love it. You spoke last week about increasing your position in BTC "in time". Did you personally do that already? Were you waiting to watch it hold its price level over the past 2 weeks like it has?
    • PS
      Peter S.
      27 March 2020 @ 19:42
      Can you recommend ways to acquire Bitcoin investments?
    • PS
      Pavel S.
      27 March 2020 @ 20:43
      Peter S: there are multiple ways to buy, but what is essential is how you store. There is a rule "not your keys not your bitcoin" so you want to be in control of your private keys and not have "your bitcoin" held in custody with some exchange (like coinbase)... get yourself a Trezor crypto hardware wallet or Nano Ledger S hardware wallet. details https://blog.trezor.io/why-you-need-a-hardware-wallet-eaf966c5c193 Then register account with a crypto exchange (e.g. US: Coinbase, EU: Kraken, Bitstamp, globally: BINANCE) but the bitcoins there and send them to your hardware wallet. Do some research before you do that. An easier version is: just create a coinbase account and store it there. But then you rely on Coinbase same as you rely on your bank. Not your keys not your bitcoin.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    27 March 2020 @ 18:57
    When was this recorded?
    • TD
      Tuur D. | Contributor
      27 March 2020 @ 20:34
      Mine was last Monday, March 23rd.
  • SL
    Sean L.
    27 March 2020 @ 17:28
    Hi all. I'm linking a twitter thread that I did a while back in response to Nic Carter's great article on EMH & bitcoin which was written as a part of the debate around whether or not the halving was 'priced in' and therefore the viability of stock to flow. Indeed, demand is central to the S2F model but static demand moving forward isn't a reasonable expectation. In fact, recent events have caused a clear spike in demand from 'new bitcoiners' which makes perfect sense - it was built for an environment like the one we're seeing now with literal reference by the global reserve currency to 'infinity'. Currencies are all being devalued relative to scarce assets. Demand will continue to grow and that 'new demand' will interact with a decreased 'new supply'. My thread deals mostly with why demand will continue to grow and why the halving - as apiece of information - isn't priced in: https://twitter.com/SeanPLavery/status/1213634490985267200
  • MO
    Matthew O.
    27 March 2020 @ 17:06
    LOL at Dan's Hair. Really embracing that quarantine style...love it. Great analysis guys. For those who are interested in bitcoins technical market structure and recent price action, I found this article very enlightening: https://multicoin.capital/2020/03/17/march-12-the-day-crypto-market-structure-broke/
  • MS
    Mark S.
    27 March 2020 @ 13:46
    When was this filmed please?
    • MN
      Marko N.
      27 March 2020 @ 14:18
      He mentions Italy 4000 death , which was last week 20th March
    • TD
      Tuur D. | Contributor
      27 March 2020 @ 15:35
      My interview was on Monday March 23rd (Tuur Demeester).
  • KS
    Kathleen S.
    27 March 2020 @ 14:33
    Bitcoin is Anti-Fragile ---- it will come out of this stronger than it was before.
  • AK
    Adam K.
    27 March 2020 @ 10:36
    I love this format. You have very smart guests and you get to the point extremely quickly! Super digestible with nice overlap on the points that matter. More focus on the risks would be great because we all know there is a super strong positive case for the asset already. Otherwise, an amazing piece!
    • AK
      Adam K.
      27 March 2020 @ 10:51
      Bit of an error in the production of this video however: The Stock/Flow model chart thrown up on the screen at 46:02 (and the ones before that) are quite old, in fact they say that the halving is 9 months away when in fact it is only 46 days away at the date of this video release. Whoever did the posting must have just done a google image search on it lol. I've included here a link to his most recent one if anyone on the team wants to rectify it: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1242068166454456322 https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1242068166454456322/photo/1