2021 Kickoff: Looking Through the Headlines with Mike Green

Published on
January 4th, 2021
Duration
35 minutes

Ed and Ash’s Holiday Send-Off: Looking Ahead to 2021 (LIVE)


2021 Kickoff: Looking Through the Headlines with Mike Green

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Haley Draznin, Max Wiethe, and Michael Green

Published on: January 4th, 2021 • Duration: 35 minutes

Mike Green kicks off the Real Vision Daily Briefing in 2021 with Real Vision’s Max Wiethe. Although markets sold off and volatility rose sharply, Mike was not particularly surprised by today’s price action and attributes today’s selloff to market participants who waited until 2021 to take profits rather than the runoff risks that many attributed to this. He also makes the case for markets building towards a substantial correction at some point in 2021 and gives his outlook for the Georgia runoff and other important events on the horizon. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin looks at the markets on the first trading day of the year as the VIX surges, Bitcoin ascends to new record highs, stocks react to a grim pandemic outlook.

Comments

Transcript

  • RY
    Roy Y.
    13 January 2021 @ 14:32
    Compelling, informative and articulate.. One of the best on RV
  • Sv
    Sid v.
    10 January 2021 @ 19:05
    Thank you for the serious information.
  • SL
    Shawn L.
    9 January 2021 @ 00:15
    Mike your principled thinking is a tremendous gift you offer to those of us that strive to be the same type of thinkers.
  • ZK
    Zoltan K.
    8 January 2021 @ 20:21
    Thank you Mike Green, voice of reason.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    4 January 2021 @ 23:32
    More of Michael Green! Mike can you recommend to us some good books! :)
    • SK
      Samuel K.
      8 January 2021 @ 14:30
      In aother podcast Mike recommended the book Goliath. Recently published, 2018 I believe?
  • PS
    Patrick S.
    6 January 2021 @ 01:50
    I greedily listen to every Mike Green interview. He never ceases to amaze me with the depth of his knowledge. Mike's "opinions" seem to be consistently based on quantifiable data. He can back up what he says with numbers. I think the way he interacts with his guests, for example the "curmudgeon" Grantham, (my opinion) is wonderful. I look forward to hearing more from Mike during the year. MG is worth the price of admission to RV. Great job on the interview Max! The dry humour on the Keto diet passed without comment. Cheers
    • SK
      Samuel K.
      8 January 2021 @ 14:21
      The Keto joke was just out of context so it took a few seconds to appreciate. I laughed like ten seconds later
  • AP
    Ash P.
    8 January 2021 @ 00:18
    Great conversation - particularly as I listen to it following the events at the Capitol that transpired yesterday. Very thoughtfully led Max. The idea that market turbulence might arise from something so banal as a bunch of folks forgetting to set aside the taxes payable on their gains is shocking - particularly in light of Mike's assertion earlier that a single 10 million dollar trade could move a market. Hard to imagine what a pile of Robinhoodies and HODLers have stacked up that they might now need to cough up on. What a gong show.
  • NE
    Nicholas E.
    6 January 2021 @ 18:24
    Hope he gets his 15 pound market pullback!
  • DB
    Danielle B.
    6 January 2021 @ 10:04
    MG. Speak your mind, uncensored always.
  • DS
    David S.
    6 January 2021 @ 03:21
    Grade A MG
    • DS
      David S.
      6 January 2021 @ 03:26
      Pres Trump opens himself up to prosecution?? WTF are you talking about??
  • OM
    Owen M.
    6 January 2021 @ 03:00
    Mike G is the GOAT
  • KW
    Kathleen W.
    5 January 2021 @ 05:09
    I'm a happily married woman but I have a crush on Mike Green, that was a fabulous presentation. I started on Wall Street in 1987, on a futures desk, and have seen 3 collapses. I feel the same uncertainty that I heard in his voice. Max, you're a great interviewer, you let him explain everything without interrupting him. Let's get him back weekly!
    • MJ
      Marcus J.
      6 January 2021 @ 01:05
      I'm a straight man with a crush on Mike Green. Wish I was half as smart
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    5 January 2021 @ 18:21
    I agree mostly with Mr Green, but I think his political projection is based on the assumption that the media have been presenting all the facts in an unbiased manner. If you take them at their word, every claim about election fraud is "baseless" and Trump is leading a "soft coup" for power. However, drilling down on the actual cases and affadavits, it becomes obvious that there are real challenges happening that the media don't want to cover in detail. Sure, they focus on the cases being "thrown out" brought by individuals, but when it comes to the constitutional right to challenge, they're mostly silent. In this aspect I think Mr Green is accepting their presentation of data, and based on such a one-sided view, I understand why he'd think the remaining days of Trump are a futile exercise. It doesn't resonate until you look into the support that he's had, whether you like it or not, and how high that percentage is of the entire USA population. I assure you, it isn't just 5%. So to that end I'll just close saying that I understand how Mike came to this conclusion based on the information he had available -- but I disagree with him since there is more detail if you drill down further. We'll see, in any case. It isn't the first time elections have been challenged, even though the media might want to make you think it is.
    • DS
      David S.
      5 January 2021 @ 19:17
      The courts are not the media. Actual court cases were dismissed for lack of evidence. The discussion on voter fraud is just the Kool-aid for fund raising. In addition President Trump may wish to scuttle the reelection bid of opponents. I believe President Trump has made this self-evident himself. DLS
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      5 January 2021 @ 21:18
      @David S - Interestingly, the Vice President has the power to reject fraudently chosen electors, so even the court system isn't the final check on this process. My point is -- there's more to this than represented in the media, or partisan judges in a courtroom.
    • MJ
      Marcus J.
      6 January 2021 @ 01:02
      Timothy, there has been a great deal of intellectualizing around the Trump phenomenon and perhaps even more so about the motivations of the "Trump voter". Whatever they may be, and as a non American I am somewhat in the dark as to your deeper motivations, I can tell you this. I have spent my entire working life in the wholesale used car trade and have met many great people and good friends within it. However, I have also dealt with a good number of what you might call members of the "underbelly" of humanity. Trump as an individual was instantly recognizable to me as being of this class without any assistance from a sometimes biased media. It is manifestly clear to anyone familiar with his breed that this is a man with no shred of honor nor common decency and who is a stranger to the truth. If I were forced to do business with such a man I would take the utmost care to avoid being compromised by him or allowing him any power over me. The fact that recently the voters of America were very narrowly wise enough to remove this person from the ultimate position of power over them is extremely fortunate. By all means, recount votes and test those recounts in your courts. You are indeed fortunate that the rule of the law and the strength of your republic overall seems to have been able to withstand this assault from below. However, given the narrowness of this escape and the vast numbers of intelligent people like yourself who seem to me mysteriously unaware of what just passed by them in the night, I am nonetheless worried for your future. And for mine. Lets hope that this next administration appeals to the better angels of our natures.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    5 January 2021 @ 22:49
    Mike Green is always so impressive!
  • VR
    Vladimir R.
    5 January 2021 @ 21:54
    Nice work Mike and Max! Enjoyable and informative interview!
  • JM
    Jason M.
    5 January 2021 @ 21:30
    Max did a great job.. stayed within his purview and had good questions..
  • HH
    HODL H.
    5 January 2021 @ 20:53
    Mike be the only well known finance guy to mention tether. Tether will get crushed and with it bitcoin, but that destroys muh bullish narrative of BTC 100k! Tether will destroy Bitcoin
  • pt
    popejumpingjohnpaul t.
    5 January 2021 @ 20:52
    mike green isnt a contrarian, hes a fucking jedi. serious question tho, were any of the many trumpers on RV smart enought to pick up on his criticism? (the tragedy of finance is these opaque public expressions of morality.society needs leaders.)
  • MC
    Mike C.
    5 January 2021 @ 01:38
    The conversation around stablecoins is well overdue on this platform. The very real possibility that USDT may be a massive counterfeiting operation is an issue that's too big to ignore. It's been known for a long time and yet hasn't been seriously addressed. The crypto content on this platform is great. It's real value add and I'm learning a lot. However don't just tell me the good news, tell me the bad news too. Trust is hard to gain but easily lost. If the allegations against USDT are true it doesn't change the fact that blockchain is changing the world. It might mean there are some serious speed bumps on the horizon but how would I know if I don't have a access to the right information to make informed decisions?
    • NC
      NATHAN C.
      5 January 2021 @ 02:16
      I agree, this is an issue that should be addressed in detail by the most knowledgeable people on RV.
    • AN
      Aaron N.
      5 January 2021 @ 02:34
      Sounds like a great topic for The Exchange. Caitlin Long brought [the USDT] issue up in one of her RV interviews of late... I don't recall its title at moment, but it is being discussed among those in the know with higher levels of expertise and political clout.
    • TL
      Tom L.
      5 January 2021 @ 13:49
      https://www2.occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2021/nr-occ-2021-2.html Worth a read. "Federally Chartered Banks and Thrifts May Participate in Independent Node Verification Networks and Use Stablecoins for Payment Activities"
  • RM
    Russell M.
    5 January 2021 @ 13:48
    Excellent analysis!
  • BV
    Bas V.
    4 January 2021 @ 23:57
    I'm sorry, what? Did Mike just seriously suggest (again) that Tether is behind Bitcoin's price appreciation? I mean... I'm no fan of Tether but Tether manipulating BTC price is simply based on outdated research by Griffin et.al. Since, in April 2020, a (proper!) independent analysis of the hypothesis was tested and plainly said, obliterated the assertion that this would be the case. No evidence whatsoever. For those interested. https://voxeu.org/article/stable-coins-dont-inflate-crypto-markets
    • SG
      Skyler G.
      5 January 2021 @ 00:48
      I think the more important point is to be mindful of the risks and don't be overly leveraged (invested) to one asset.
    • BV
      Bas V.
      5 January 2021 @ 01:40
      That's a valid & nuanced way of looking at it. Imo... more important point is Mike spreading *unsubstantiated* Tether fear. For anyone reading this interested in a Tether deepdive. Here you go: https://exchange.realvision.com/question/hello-hivemind-i-continuously-try-to-find-bear-cases-for-crypto-challenging--5ff04d9ef9ffb274aea1f496
    • MG
      Michael G. | Contributor
      5 January 2021 @ 02:45
      The link you provided is in no way a refutation of Griffin. From the VoxEU piece "Our results do not preclude the possibility that price manipulation has occurred" and then they provide a few paragraphs of "Well if Tether is doing what they say they are doing..." Garbage analysis. Thanks for watching the program.
    • BV
      Bas V.
      5 January 2021 @ 03:15
      Thanks for your reply Michael. Seriously appreciated. Simply said: The Griffin piece showed a clear correlation between Tether issuance and BTC price appreciation. This piece shows that this correlation is spurious at best and has no indication of being a causal factor. Not a garbage analysis. They did a great job at testing their hypothesis. Better so than Griffin's piece. Like most good scientists, they did not exclude the possibility of them overlooking other ways price manipulation possibly takes place (factors/angles not looked at in this study). They showed that the evidence presented in Griffin's piece was not valid, which is what really matters. That makes Griffin's piece little more than unsubstantiated speculation.
    • DW
      Daniel W.
      5 January 2021 @ 10:21
      It is comments like this that still makes me think all Crypto is a Tulip and it is time to get out and run.
    • BV
      Bas V.
      5 January 2021 @ 11:51
      Let me nuance my comment a bit. I might have had to refute too many logical fallacies on Twitter lately regarding the topic. I came in strong not because I think Tether isn't a little fishy. I think it is and it should be investigated. I came in strong because the arguments presented as of now have no substantiation as of yet. They are based in speculation and speculation only. That's fine. But I'd also then like it to be clearly stated as speculation & unsubstantiated (as of yet). Without doing so, (future) legitimate arguments and simple 'FUD' become increasingly hard to distinguish. Mike, I appreciated the rest of your interview and would it not have been for my recent deepdive into Tether I would have overlooked your (imo) lack of nuance in your comment on it.
  • JK
    Jens K.
    5 January 2021 @ 10:15
    I love that he drops jokes in the same dry tone and without changing his expression.
  • KS
    Kim S.
    5 January 2021 @ 09:02
    Great video as always. Mike works great as interviewer and interviewee!
  • DG
    David G.
    5 January 2021 @ 07:00
    I'm more of a fasting guy myself, keto goes great with fasting though. Get a pair of Bowe Flex select-tech 1090s and bring them to the office. Go for 200 Mike!
  • BD
    Ben D.
    5 January 2021 @ 06:11
    I'm not here to always agree with mike but I would like to hear well thought out opposing points from other people. Looking forward to hearing from all of these upcoming interviews. Happy new years to everyone too.
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    5 January 2021 @ 05:36
    When you listen to Mike with a little Ardbeg scotch, it takes it to a new level. Love this platform.
  • RP
    Rashad P.
    5 January 2021 @ 02:47
    Great interview! I appreciate Mike shooting it straight with the RV community.
  • JC
    John C.
    5 January 2021 @ 02:40
    Great job pulling fantastic insights at of Mr Green!
  • MC
    Mark C.
    5 January 2021 @ 02:36
    Max, Haley, Mike - great work as usual. Thanks and happy new year. Looking forward to those interviews.
  • sk
    steve k.
    4 January 2021 @ 23:35
    Searching for yield? Bitcoin has no yield.
    • SG
      Skyler G.
      5 January 2021 @ 00:07
      Exactly
    • AN
      Aaron N.
      5 January 2021 @ 02:24
      Bitcoin doesn't have a yield, but it can be collateralized at a yield, which custodians like BlockFi and Celsius do.
  • IN
    I N.
    5 January 2021 @ 02:20
    That was an incredible start to 2021, Max! And Mike,... I pray to Mike.
  • CE
    Ch E.
    5 January 2021 @ 02:10
    Very good discussion!!!! Well done!!!
  • JD
    John D.
    5 January 2021 @ 01:31
    I really enjoyed this perspective from Mike. Thanks RV!
  • kR
    kirk R.
    5 January 2021 @ 01:12
    Haley! Crushing it today! I'm super impressed :) Somebody was busy during the holiday break!
  • DS
    David S.
    5 January 2021 @ 00:57
    Great discussion. I, for one, enjoy listening and thinking about all of Mr. Green's presentations. Bring them on! DLS
  • JA
    Jordan A.
    5 January 2021 @ 00:28
    RIP Jack Ma
    • SG
      Skyler G.
      5 January 2021 @ 00:49
      Im sure he's fine, just attending a re-education center.
  • ZY
    ZHENG Y.
    5 January 2021 @ 00:48
    Mike, your popularity will increase because you able to offer a different view, which is more valuable when different than mainstream view.
  • SG
    Skyler G.
    5 January 2021 @ 00:48
    Can we have perhaps Ed or someone comment on the Debt ceiling being re-instated later in the year? My guess is the Republicans find Jesus again and bring this up as a core issue. But it could just be postponed again. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-04/the-debt-ceiling-s-return-may-be-an-issue-sooner-than-you-think
  • RI
    R I.
    5 January 2021 @ 00:46
    This was better than Mike’s presentation earlier today.
  • TC
    Tim C.
    5 January 2021 @ 00:43
    Mike is one of my RV favs. Deep thinker always looking at 2nd, 3rd+ order effects, how they feedback, and what the consequences of the feedback from those effects are. It feels like he is spot on about some of these flows (like tax related selling post Dec 31) as well as the late Q1 tax related flows (that may get exacerbated by target date fund rebalancing) at the end of March, especially given the inelasticity in the markets...
  • AT
    ALAN T.
    5 January 2021 @ 00:37
    Terrific
  • CM
    Cory M.
    5 January 2021 @ 00:24
    Wow, Haley dropped some (conservative) opinion. You go, Haley! The next Jack. Now I will listen to a second brilliant half hour with Mike Green today. That's my commentary without evidence - a dangerous trading combination but assuredly fine regarding Mike.
  • BK
    Brian K.
    5 January 2021 @ 00:05
    mike green - Yeah !!!
  • RM
    R M.
    4 January 2021 @ 23:55
    Mike always brings great ideas, lots to think about! Thank you!
  • PK
    Paul K.
    4 January 2021 @ 23:33
    When Mike said 255 to 240 as the pullback.. was he talking about his Keto diet or the SPY?
    • OA
      Oliver A.
      4 January 2021 @ 23:41
      He's talking waist line lol.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      4 January 2021 @ 23:51
      5.8% Doesn't seem like much of a pullback IMO.
  • OA
    Oliver A.
    4 January 2021 @ 23:41
    I could literally listen to Mike Green talk confidently about passive flows for hours.... and I think I have....
  • TM
    The M.
    4 January 2021 @ 23:31
    Great video as always
  • GP
    Gregory P.
    4 January 2021 @ 23:26
    That deadpan keto joke was comedy gold Mike!