“A Keynesian Beauty Contest — But With No Beauty”

Published on
December 4th, 2020
Duration
40 minutes

Reopening Fake Out Sectors, Positive Jobs Data Surprises, and Renewed Stimulus Hopes


“A Keynesian Beauty Contest — But With No Beauty”

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Ed Harrison

Published on: December 4th, 2020 • Duration: 40 minutes

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington (“Cash Pennington”) hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to break down today’s dismal data on the state of the U.S. labor market. Ed and Ash put in context the non-farm payroll figures, released today, and contrast this dreadful print with the rally in U.S. equities. After reflecting on what these job numbers means for the yield curve and interest rate margins, Ed and Ash conduct an even-handed analysis of the worsening data on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospitalizations. In the intro, editor Jack Farley explores why the investors seem convinced that the adverse jobs data is actually good news for the stock market. For Lyn Alden's latest article on the Eurodollar system, click here: https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/.

Comments

Transcript

  • JG
    John G.
    7 December 2020 @ 16:24
    We have a repeat performance from the stupid media and apparently RV too. Calling Al Gore President Elect and now the same with Joe Biden shows they never learn. That's all I am saying. Joe Biden is no more president elect than Al Gore was 20 years ago. But we will see very soon who is president elect but right now we don't know. And the media's intent to influence the voters through this false narrative is irrelevant. The direction will be given by the SCOTUS. Not CNN or RV for that matter.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      7 December 2020 @ 17:16
      still at it then? The Matrix as taken from Wikepedia: depicts a dystopian future in which humanity is unknowingly trapped inside a simulated reality, the Matrix, created by intelligent machines to distract humans while using their bodies as an energy source. When computer programmer Thomas Anderson, under the hacker alias "Neo", uncovers the truth, he "is drawn into a rebellion against the machines" along with other people who have been freed from the Matrix.
    • DB
      Danielle B.
      9 December 2020 @ 12:05
      Yes, you are right.
  • ac
    adam c.
    5 December 2020 @ 19:08
    That was a superb daily briefing thank you very much for the detailed evaluation of the markets.
    • ac
      anthony c.
      8 December 2020 @ 04:36
      You sound like a goupie
  • BB
    Benjamin B.
    6 December 2020 @ 21:08
    McConnell won't 'come to the table in good faith.' Interesting Ed will call that out but when Pelosi does the same thing for months it goes without mention. Ed put your bias in lockdown.
  • JG
    John G.
    6 December 2020 @ 16:09
    Just to be clear. The press does not determine who is president elect. That happens when the electoral college meets and comes out with the winner.....normally 270 votes. Currently Trump has more electoral votes than Biden in the undisputed states. There are still 6 states under litigation. This will likely be going to the SCOTUS. So we need to resolve these legal issue before we know who is president elect. Of course you know all this and apparently want to sweep all the now well documented voter fraud under the rug. I am very disappointed in RV for continuing to push this false narrative.
    • DS
      David S.
      6 December 2020 @ 17:51
      Time will tell. No worries. DLS
    • MT
      Mike T.
      6 December 2020 @ 20:13
      hope its good living in The Matrix
  • JJ
    John J.
    5 December 2020 @ 20:53
    All the comments say the exact same thing, which is BS. Who is paying for these exact comments?
    • NI
      Nate I.
      6 December 2020 @ 04:10
      I was not paid for mine.
    • DS
      David S.
      6 December 2020 @ 19:49
      I do not believe they were paid for their comments. It is normal human nature to back strong positions until the final die is cast. Hope of being correct is one of the strongest motivations. When the final results are in most will move on. Conspiracy theories, however, are the coin of the realm in many Western democracies now. Personally I believe President Trump understand the situation. He is hoping he can force a change in the vote thereby being reelected. The people who support him need the election to be changed for their power base to remain in power. It will take time. DLS
  • PS
    Patrick S.
    5 December 2020 @ 10:40
    Glad to see Ash back at the helm of RVDB!
    • RL
      Remmelt L.
      6 December 2020 @ 15:08
      When does Roger will be back on Thursday?
  • RB
    Richard B.
    6 December 2020 @ 04:24
    It would be good to hear from Raoul on his bullish USD position, negative banks and industrials, euro etc etc or perhaps he is just interested in being a BTC whale now!
  • NI
    Nate I.
    6 December 2020 @ 04:09
    I know of someone who felt ill and went to the doctor. He tested positive for cv19. Whether or not his PCR test was nonsense is a separate matter, but it was positive. So we'll say he had it. Doctor offered to admit him, but he declined. He stayed home for a few days, got over it and now he's fine. The defensive medicine problem pre-dates cv19 by decades. Had the doctor not offered to admit and the guy died, his family would own the malpractice insurance company. It's not that the doctors are political, incompetent, bad people, yada yada. They are smart, good, people but they simply have to follow the standard of care or they get sued and lose their license. Anytime you see a doctor, try to speak off the record if you want sound advice. If at all possible, do your own research. Otherwise, you'll get the standard of care which is probably not in your best interest.
  • WT
    William T.
    5 December 2020 @ 23:43
    FINALLY, somebody actually came right out and called 'bullshit' on this market. Thanks Ed.
  • JA
    John A.
    5 December 2020 @ 01:12
    We couldn't handle 3% yields in 2018. Not sure why we think we can handle even 2% yields in 2020 without the system collapsing.
    • JE
      Jonathan E.
      5 December 2020 @ 10:29
      Agreed this the crux.
    • DS
      David S.
      5 December 2020 @ 22:35
      The stock market will have a temper tantrum. IMO a little at a time. Small raise. Stop. Sneak another small raise. Stop. Repeat. DLS
  • DC
    David C.
    5 December 2020 @ 02:02
    I work as an ER nurse and I can tell you that some primary care physicians send patients to the ER however we evaluate them if they are holding their oxygen saturation then we send them home. The patients being hospitalized are the very sick ones. Some of these patients can turn around and be discharged in a few days but others need to stay weeks. It has become very difficult to transfer patients from smaller hospitals to higher level of care hospital because they are full. It is overwhelming at times! Melanie
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      5 December 2020 @ 02:31
      That’s very frightening. Thanks for sharing the comment.
    • CG
      Christine G.
      5 December 2020 @ 04:27
      Thank you (and I am staying home to keep out of your way).
    • AR
      Alexander R.
      5 December 2020 @ 06:08
      It is true but please do not scare people as of right now, we are able to take care of all the patients and provide good care Of course it might change if system will get overwhelmied, this is not the case as of 12/4/2020
    • GH
      Gloria H.
      5 December 2020 @ 14:52
      @Alexander R - where are you located? Because in too many areas of the US, hospitals and healthcare workers ARE OVERWHELMED.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      5 December 2020 @ 16:31
      Just posted this above, but disagree with Alexander's comment. Depends on where you live. Tennessee is looking to activate the National Guard to help man hospitals. I consider this a serious level for something I have never experienced in my long lifetime in this country.
    • DS
      David S.
      5 December 2020 @ 22:31
      Alexander R. - Where are you practicing medicine? Thanks. DLS
  • CJ
    Calvin J.
    5 December 2020 @ 17:00
    Regarding Hospitalizations : There have been media reports claiming a gaming of the system and a belief that this is inflating the COIVD hospitalization numbers. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fact-check-medicare-hospitals-paid-more-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/ I wonder if it is having any impact on self imposed consumer lock down behaviors.
    • DS
      David S.
      5 December 2020 @ 22:27
      It probably sold a lot of newspapers. It will reinforce a current belief even if it is only 0.1% of the cases. DLS
  • ac
    adam c.
    5 December 2020 @ 19:09
    That was a superb daily briefing thank you very much for the detailed evaluation of the markets.
    • ac
      adam c.
      5 December 2020 @ 19:11
      Whoops I did not mean to post that a million times although it was a very good daily briefing,
    • DS
      David S.
      5 December 2020 @ 22:24
      Hopefully RV can delete duplicate comments. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    5 December 2020 @ 22:22
    The only way the Senate will provide a proportional COVID relief package is if the Republican base applies pressure. IMO both the Republican base and the Democratic base know they are in dire need now and even more so through the spring. In the past the Republican base listened to their leaders on the best course for the Republican Party - reelection. If the Republican base can be convinced it is worth the pain of a scorched earth policy for the benefit of the Republican Party, do not expect much in the way of a COVID relief package. Do expect a flow reversal in the stock markets. DLS
  • JJ
    John J.
    5 December 2020 @ 20:52
    Ash or "Cash," needs to take a page from Max's interviews. He needs to add more value and not just feed softballs to Ed and compliment him on every utterance. Ed does a good job, but this show has deteriorated into Pablum.
  • ac
    adam c.
    5 December 2020 @ 19:09
    That was a superb daily briefing thank you very much for the detailed evaluation of the markets.
  • ac
    adam c.
    5 December 2020 @ 19:09
    That was a superb daily briefing thank you very much for the detailed evaluation of the markets.
  • ac
    adam c.
    5 December 2020 @ 19:08
    That was a superb daily briefing thank you very much for the detailed evaluation of the markets.
  • ac
    adam c.
    5 December 2020 @ 19:08
    That was a superb daily briefing thank you very much for the detailed evaluation of the markets.
  • ac
    adam c.
    5 December 2020 @ 19:08
    That was a superb daily briefing thank you very much for the detailed evaluation of the markets.
  • ac
    adam c.
    5 December 2020 @ 19:08
    That was a superb daily briefing thank you very much for the detailed evaluation of the markets.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    5 December 2020 @ 16:28
    Tennessee is looking to call in the National Guard to help staff hospitals. Agree with Ash and Ed, hospitals aren't filling their beds for insurance/political/make money reasons. A number of states are facing a real crisis when it comes to their healthcare capacity.
  • SL
    Shawn L.
    5 December 2020 @ 05:51
    You guys do such a great service to those of us with less experience in the financial world. I very much value both your perspectives, especially on a daily basis over time. The market inspired cognitive dissonance we all sense and Ed calls "bullshit" (thanks for the validation) needs to be managed by us to prevent emotional disequilibrium in how we view things. I do this by reminding myself that all people think in multidimensional spaces. They think using pattern matching philosophies, while other think using first principle methodologies. Some have professional motivations, others simply are too distressed and overwhelmed to do any of their own thinking at all. We all think and plan over various time frames, with differing experiences and with various fluid agendas. The dimensions I listed barely scratch the surface of how we all think and process market, covid and/or political information. Using liquidity, momentum and sentiment as abstract explanations for why markets continue to be bullish is most accurate, but also oversimplify what is going on. The world, the market, our economy, our immune systems and many other complex systems according to complexity theory are striving to find the perfect balance of chaos vs order. In finance we think of the very often seen truth of mean reversion, but it is more basic to the universe that to much order leads to chaos and to much chaos leads to order. What goes up must come down, we all have grown up with intuitive lessons regarding this fundamental part of life. In applying this to my own investing/trading I have to be very careful to not allow my own intrinsic order to inspire me to fight the extrinsic disorder I see day after day. I must be patient and know, as certain as the laws of physics that things will eventually shift. If markets can be irrational longer than I can be solvent is a recipe for bankruptcy, the opposite must be true as well. If I act responsibly I can remain solvent in an investment longer than the market can be irrational. 401k retirement passive investors (average workers) do this all the time by simply ignoring the money they invest and holding things for a very long time.
    • GH
      Gloria H.
      5 December 2020 @ 14:57
      Shawn - this is the most insightful comment I’ve ever read on RV. You’ve perfectly captured the parallel and ever-fluid dimensions of investing.
  • KM
    Kelly M.
    5 December 2020 @ 00:00
    It's Wednesday? Dec 4th! Ash, you're losing it
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      5 December 2020 @ 00:05
      Partially. Lack of sleep. I'm surprised nobody else caught it while I was recording!
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      5 December 2020 @ 01:33
      Haha good catch, Kelly! Keeping Ash honest - I like it 🙂
    • B
      Bob .
      5 December 2020 @ 04:04
      I caught that AND also in the description when you scroll up it says it was published on the 3rd. You put out so much great content you are just tired. Have a nice weekend.
    • PW
      Patrick W.
      5 December 2020 @ 12:22
      Great! Two extra days for the rotation trade!
  • DK
    Danny K.
    5 December 2020 @ 07:43
    Ashy 'Cash' Bennington all over it. Ed.. Ashley Cole was a left-back stick to bonds mate. I know it's not within the remit of the DB but I wouldn't mind (generally) seeing a bit of speculation about potential risks associated with bitcoin. I'm chill but black swans tend to find a way in my experience. Cheers lads.
  • SR
    Sangamesh R.
    5 December 2020 @ 07:26
    It’s Wednesday, Dec 4th!?
  • BS
    Benjamin S.
    5 December 2020 @ 04:45
    Cash Printington might be an even better moniker. Thanks for another great RVDB. I appreciate it when you put up the charts.
  • SB
    Samuel B.
    5 December 2020 @ 04:13
    Ed m, great insight. Thank You.
  • CD
    Chris D.
    5 December 2020 @ 00:01
    I always think Ash has taken over from Walter Cronkite https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5tdqojA26E . The most dramatic introductions are when he starts with "It's Friday, December fourth. This is the Real Vision Daily Briefing."
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      5 December 2020 @ 02:38
      Chris, Great clip! I feel like I probably watched this as a little kid with my parents. Great stuff!!
  • bb
    brian b.
    5 December 2020 @ 02:16
    ITS BULLSHIT.THERE IS NO GOOD NEWS.ES SHOULD BE ABOUT 2000
  • PK
    Pat K.
    5 December 2020 @ 01:22
    It was refreshing to hear some negative commentary about the extreme sentiment in the markets from Ed and Ash. I was beginning to believe that only positive comments were allowed on the RVDB. It is hard to fathom how an economy that has been supported by the Fed for so many years already can be viewed as even close to healthy. That markets rise on bad economic news because oh boy we get more stimulus is not even remotely a good sign for the current period and especially in the longer term.
  • BD
    Brent D.
    5 December 2020 @ 00:43
    Oh...."unbridled bullishness" at 2X it sounds like "unbridled bullsh*t"
  • SP
    Simon P.
    5 December 2020 @ 00:36
    Can you imagine the jobs creation at the end of it, if the numbers are already good?