Ask Me Anything with “The Young Bucks”

Published on
January 18th, 2021
Duration
54 minutes

Looking Forward at Interest Rates, the U.S. Dollar, Volatility, and the B117 Variant


Ask Me Anything with “The Young Bucks”

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley and Max Wiethe

Published on: January 18th, 2021 • Duration: 54 minutes

Real Vision editors Max Wiethe and Jack Farley source questions from Real Vision members via The Exchange in this special, pre-recorded edition of The Real Vision Daily Briefing. Max and Jack discuss everything from how quantitative easing impacts the economy, to who their favorite contributors are, to how the evolution of their macro frameworks have evolved as a result of working at Real Vision. In addition to sharing their thoughts on stocks, bonds, and crypto, Max and Jack consider how their relatively young age should impact their risk tolerance and portfolio construction.

Comments

Transcript

  • JP
    John P.
    21 January 2021 @ 07:49
    Imo if the EM trade is really a buy and go to the beach, I think it would be nice to have a list of good ETFs. One thing that I'm skeptical of based on Raoul's commentary is that he often points to the chart of the EEM ETF. While I do read it as bullish, if you look at the holdings of the ETF the breakout isn't really due to EM as a macro concept. EEM has large exposure to hong kong. Its largest holding is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, which is relatively priced similar to US competitors. It also holds nearly 1% of Chinese EV bubble stock NIO, among others. I like the trade, I'm just not sure how to allocate without picking up a lot of baggage.
  • JT
    Jason T.
    20 January 2021 @ 01:19
    There was mention that Raoul will be rotating out of BTC at the high and moving into EMs. Is this true? If so would you kindly provide some context? I suppose we are looking at another "roughly" 80% correction on BTC? Thank you in advance. @Raoul Pal
    • BS
      Bradley S.
      21 January 2021 @ 03:02
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qnm0DoManiM&t=22298s raoul pal covers his BTC to EM trade line of thought in here he is the 12th segment
  • JR
    Jorge R.
    19 January 2021 @ 22:40
    Thank you so much for taking my question on bonds. My learnings: * The fed rate is the lowest because it is the lowest risk. * Increasing risk in any risk dimension increases yields. Time and solvency are risks. * When inflation (or expected inflation) goes up bond yields go down and vice versa. * Higher bond yields creates demand for a currency. * It is very complicated and I won't get to the bottom of it any time soon :P Thanks for also turning my basic "teach me" question into a discussion about how to approach a new topic. You two are the best!
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      19 January 2021 @ 23:09
      One point you seem to have taken away I would not agree with is what you said about inflation up and yields down. Generally the opposite.
    • CM
      Cory M.
      19 January 2021 @ 23:10
      Hi Jorge, I appreciated your question. Here's some insights, point by point: . The fed sets the short term rate for federal reserve chartered banks. The "lowest risk" rates come not from the fed but from the bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury. The 10 year US Tsy rate is the most common benchmark. . Yields go up to pay for risk, yes. And yes time and solvency are risks. In fact, credit rating agencies exist exactly for this purpose. . When "nominal" interest rates go up, nominal bond yields go down and vice versa. When you add inflation to the mix, you have "real" rates, which are now influenced by rates and inflation and inflation expectations. . Higher bond yields are attractive because they pay more, so they create demand for the sovereign (national) debt of a particular nation. This is one factor in increasing currency demand. . You're doing fine and are asking great questions. But yes, as Max said, nuances are true as we become more sophisticated ... in anything.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    19 January 2021 @ 21:39
    Bite ‘Em Bears, Jack. Ever true....
  • JP
    John P.
    19 January 2021 @ 20:50
    Great interview.
  • WG
    Wesley G.
    19 January 2021 @ 19:28
    Good job guys. What you do is hard work and you make it look easy discussing complicated topics into a camera. I like the honesty I see on the daily briefs. No one attempts to "sell" their ideas. Refreshing and honest like your point that your time horizon and ability to accept risks as a 20 something is clearly different than a 50 something. You should be super bullish at your age whereas that would be foolish for someone in their 70's. I had to chuckle about the response to the tax question. It sounds like the legal team made it clear you can never discuss taxes. Odd given the huge impact it can have on the final profit level. Taxable verse tax free bonds tradeoffs have huge impacts. Maybe it is time to bring a couple of tax experts on for discussions since it makes no sense to take risks to make 20% just to lose 12% to taxes when you could take much less risk to make 15% and only lose 6% to taxes. Just a thought.
  • WM
    William M.
    19 January 2021 @ 18:28
    Solid content .. Nice job guys.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    19 January 2021 @ 16:59
    I’ve been with RV from almost the beginning and never imagined being able to watch the “Young Bucks”. I have really enjoyed watching each of you progress and seeing your confidence, albeit, with humility, build. This video is proof of what you guys are capable of. Although I have been retired for many years I often think back to my favorite thing about starting and running a business—the mentorship....to watch the Apprentice become a Journeymen and then ultimately a Master is breathtaking. And before you both weigh in with your usual “humility” about where you are on the scale I will simply say that “I saw them come and I saw them go and there is no doubt in my mind that you both will reach the pinnacle”. I just continue to be amazed by RV...every time I think they have fallen back, they reinvent themselves and move decidedly forward. You guys have been a big part of the RV evolution.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    19 January 2021 @ 14:14
    Excellent! Perhaps I should have asked the question beforehand, but would have been interesting to hear some anecdotes and observations of your peers and acquaintances in your age group on the topics of urban vs. suburban/rural migration, employment situation, and general sentiment with everything that's going on these days...
  • jb
    jeffrey b.
    19 January 2021 @ 13:50
    When bitcoin becomes the basis of bond issues, it will be real. Any chance of that?
  • GH
    Galen H.
    19 January 2021 @ 06:45
    Nothing's crashing (yet) today. Normally when there's a pre-recorded episode there's blood all over the screen LOL.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      19 January 2021 @ 13:42
      Ahaha yes Max and I got lucky - S&P not limit down...
  • AR
    Adrian R.
    19 January 2021 @ 06:14
    Excellent job young bucks. You guys are both well beyond your years - smart, humble and always learning. Keep up the great work and thanks for all you do on RV.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      19 January 2021 @ 13:42
      You’re too kind, thanks Adrian! 🙏
  • ZT
    Zoltán T.
    19 January 2021 @ 11:43
    I'm really bulllish on the future of these two young bucks.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    19 January 2021 @ 09:48
    Nice teamwork - well done both!
  • JI
    Jonny I.
    19 January 2021 @ 06:48
    Great work you both! Look forward to hearing more from you. Stay safe...
  • AE
    Arash E.
    19 January 2021 @ 06:30
    Don’t understand the neg dislikes. I really enjoyed the episode. May be not as “sophisticated” as other interviews. If you don’t like, just don’t watch?
  • SW
    Suzanne W.
    19 January 2021 @ 00:57
    You two are great together! Learned a lot. Thank you!
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      19 January 2021 @ 05:05
      Cheers Suzanne!
  • HK
    H K.
    18 January 2021 @ 23:30
    You guys are cool
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      19 January 2021 @ 05:05
      Max is the cool one - it's because he lives downtown
  • JD
    John D.
    19 January 2021 @ 04:59
    What a fantastic interview. Really appreciate your candor and authenticity!!! You guys are rock stars!
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      19 January 2021 @ 05:04
      Thanks JWD!
  • DM
    Damien M.
    19 January 2021 @ 04:31
    WTF is a fish concert?
    • JF
      John F.
      19 January 2021 @ 04:36
      Haha, it's Phish.
  • KL
    Ken L.
    19 January 2021 @ 01:04
    In god we trust, isnt that printed on the dollar? Bitcoin has a religious part to it for a reason. Its a code that forces honesty, transparency, fairness and greed. You are used to thinking linearly, Bitcoin is nothing like that. Bitcoin is a whole universe of thoughts. You guys are severly underestimating it. Take more time reading human psychology and the history of mankind. Too much financial litteracy numbs the mind. Money is a social construct, remember that.
    • JF
      Jonathan F.
      19 January 2021 @ 03:20
      When you hear someone say the religious aspect of bitcoin makes them feel uncomfortable and this is your response.... do you think that it's within the realm of possibility that you are proving their point?
  • AF
    Alan F.
    19 January 2021 @ 01:45
    great stuff, thanks fellas!
  • IS
    Ian S.
    19 January 2021 @ 01:07
    Young bucks! Great update, fellas.
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    19 January 2021 @ 00:24
    just starting my young guns daily brief..