Cold Winter, Hot Money

Published on
December 7th, 2020
41 minutes

Cold Winter, Hot Money

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Haley Draznin, Jack Farley, and Ed Harrison

Published on: December 7th, 2020 • Duration: 41 minutes

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by editor Jack Farley to break down the froth of the market and explore whether it will boil over. Ed analyzes the significance of the Smart Money Index’s (SMI) hitting a one-year low, and Jack gives a snapshot of the roaring U.S. credit markets. Ed looks at the ongoing efforts to distribute the vaccine in the U.K. and ponders the rotation trade from growth to value stocks, as electric vehicle makers surge and cloud technology stocks remain exorbitantly priced, by historical metrics. Ed discusses Tesla’s eclipsing of Berkshire Hathaway in market capitalization, a phenomenon which Ed sees as the epitome of the market’s current zeal for flashy, growthy names. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin reviews price action and stimulus hopes, as well as a slew of upcoming IPOs, including DoorDash and AirBnb.



  • JA
    John A.
    8 December 2020 @ 03:46
    Jack pumping his rare earth call. Take a bow young man haha, I remember you talking that thing up for a bit now.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      8 December 2020 @ 04:27
      Haha take a drink every time you hear “the Saudi Arabia of rare earths”
    • DS
      David S.
      9 December 2020 @ 07:16
      Thank you Mr. Farley. Made a quick 20%. I am a poor trader so it was fun. I will jump on again after a few days as I think it is a good long-term bet. DLS
  • GS
    9 December 2020 @ 01:38
    SPACulation is on fire especially with many youtubers telling retail to jump in on companies with nothing
  • MJ
    Marc J.
    8 December 2020 @ 14:15
    "Valuations that make you want to throw up" lol.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      8 December 2020 @ 23:50
      Hah glad you liked that one, Marc!
  • IN
    I N.
    8 December 2020 @ 00:14
    Tell me that this wasn't one of the best discussions on RV DB ever! Talk of taking a dull market day and turning it into a super informative dialogue, this is the one! Hollywood's thoughts and his probes to explain the details using Ed's understanding and massive experience observing the markets made watching this an absolute pleasure. Great job everyone! Oh, and we need a good nickname for Ed at this point.
    • JA
      John A.
      8 December 2020 @ 00:18
      Ed is the Professor!
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      8 December 2020 @ 00:25
      Hah I like The Professor!
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      8 December 2020 @ 01:07
      Watch Hollywood Jack start calling me the Professor. Look what you’ve done!
    • CB
      Clifford B.
      8 December 2020 @ 12:39
      Fun stuff!
    • SL
      Shawn L.
      8 December 2020 @ 19:18
      Love it!
  • ML
    Mark L.
    8 December 2020 @ 15:38
    CAPE also adjusts for inflation in the earnings, e.g. 10yr avg REAL earnings
  • RB
    Richard B.
    8 December 2020 @ 11:58
    really very poor dialogue. Give ed a holiday!!
  • VK
    Vaclav K.
    8 December 2020 @ 08:31
    Haley is much better now. I think she has still potential improve - the breathing, not sure but sounds sometimes bit out of breath, but better ask some specialist.
  • PB
    Paul B.
    8 December 2020 @ 06:59
    I'm bullish on Tesla.
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    8 December 2020 @ 02:50
    Ed.... the CAPE ratio is a little flawed in 2020 ... due to the way that GAAP earnings are calculated. Accounting practices today are very suspect, so a chart showing a ratio back to 1881 as a comparison is a little fuzzy.
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      8 December 2020 @ 03:02
      Not to mention massive corporate buybacks and hedonic's in the calculation of the fake inflation numbers put out by government.
  • CD
    Cody D.
    8 December 2020 @ 02:59
    I learn so much from you guys, thank you.
  • TC
    Tim C.
    8 December 2020 @ 02:43
    I don't think the growth/value rotation has legs, but I'm happy to die on my sword. Why? Because the categorization of growth v. value is fubar. For example, everyone says AAPL isn't growing, so why is it not a value stock that has increasing margins and leverage from stock buybacks? Growth v. Value is old school. The world is way more nuanced than that now. We are having a big bifurcation now. Many companies are a hybrid of growth and value. There is also a huge shift in consumer purchases.. I do agree with Ed's general views and I agree about the balance sheet and cash flow problems. Long Gold Long 30Y Farming my tech...
  • MH
    Michael H.
    8 December 2020 @ 02:06
    How smart are "SMI" people if they've been fading the market for the last 4 months? Is that why many HFs are massively underperforming?
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      8 December 2020 @ 02:12
      Short answer - yes
  • DS
    David S.
    8 December 2020 @ 01:59
    Pertinent examples Mr. Harrison. Someday the whole company's performance will matter. Thanks. DLS
  • WT
    William T.
    8 December 2020 @ 01:28
    Growth to value? Don't you mean extremely overbought to less extremely overbought?
  • PB
    8 December 2020 @ 01:11
    I had no idea about the so called "Smart Money Index" (SMI). So, presumably, if one doesn't know what the SMI is, they are a member of DMI...(gulp).
  • DT
    David T.
    8 December 2020 @ 00:50
    I enjoy DBs with Jack Farley
  • KC
    Kirk C.
    8 December 2020 @ 00:28
    it is a lot less confusing if you value cyclical companies using p/bv!
  • JA
    John A.
    8 December 2020 @ 00:17
    Good one guys.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      8 December 2020 @ 00:25
      Cheers John!