I want to make a point about Europe because I do feel that there is too much fear (in particular by Ash) that Europe will collapse and that it could spark a major internal conflict. I am born in Belgium and living close to Brussels. I am a regular visitor of many European countries and I have friends and former colleagues in many of them. While we have cultural differences, in practice there is not that much difference in mindset. I am talking in particular about the large majority of generation X and millenials that are currently driving our economies and political parties. Obviously, Europe faces challenging times and the EU itself is still a young and a growing alliance (apart from brexit). It has failures in its design and somehow it worked enough to progress but brexit and the coronacrisis show again that major updates are needed (in particular a real fiscal union). I am confident that we will be able to work it out without an internal (hot or cold) war. The wars were a tool of the past to ensure that no European country dominated the continent and a for long time de facto the world but this does not reflect the world today. We need it each other. The wars, the struggles and the setup of the union did gave us relisience in the face of adverse conditions, diplomacy and the ability to compromise. These are three aspects that are now part of the European fabric. I believe it will move us to a better Europe that has a bigger role to play in the future. As a side note: you may notice in the COVID statistics that Belgium has the highest number of deaths per capita worldwide. It is serious but not that bad as you would think. Our governement decided to classify all deaths without a known cause as COVID. The number is 2x to 3x inflated. Also, more than half of the deaths are in elderly homes, a major problem in many Western countries but not always added to the statistics.

Great as always guys. Ed tell your sister friend instead of buying USO it is much better to go to the new monetary system. Positions of the Association of German Banks................... A stable currency is the basis for any economic system; ensuring one is a key element of state sovereignty. The stability of the existing monetary system must not therefore be endangered by the provision of crypto-based digital money. The German private banks rate programmable digital money as an innovation with great potential that can be a key component in the next stage of the evolution of digitalisation. The German private banks will play their part in establishing a sustainable and innovative monetary system. For this purpose, a programmable account and crypto-based digital euro should be created and its interoperability with book money ensured. The condition for this is establishing a common pan-European payments platform for the programmable digital euro. https://en.bankenverband.de/newsroom/comments/programmable-digital-euro/

This was really an epic daily update worthy of the insanity that unfolded. I can tell that more time went into editing and splicing in clips from other segments was cool, also nice to see Jack is still absolutely killing it on the intros, is he getting more and more time in the intros? He’s gonna have his own show!

Great shirt today Ash!

OMG what alarmist B.S. about U.S. with highest number of deaths..... https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Having lived through the 2000 Argentine crisis, it seems to me that Italy is in the early stages of a similar default. After months (if not years) of denial, over one weekend Argentina unpegged to the US$ and redenominated all existing US$ (and even US$ denominated business contracts). Such a shift in Italy will be more complicated to implement but all the pressures all seem be there.

A bit of the echo chamber, The snap back in gasoline is real. People are done with the stay at home directives, people fear the virus less but what remains is the fear of not conforming to the social distancing and looking like am asshole. When orders are lifted,it will be one giant party, as people are itching to get out... Think about families with children at this time. the snap back of demand for things such as gasoline will be vshaped. Furthermore, the narrative for the deadliness of vivid will change: Some new studies are showing like 50xthe number of infected out there but didn't have serious symptoms , and covid as the virus will fade into the background of normalacy and a fact of life, look to antibody testing for confirmation. Politicians have what they need to keep the economy going, and they won't look back. If this is the case , Further rounds of shutdowns won't be like this one, and target the vulnerable.

Northern Euro countries could leave the Euro before Italy. While Italy is in the Euro, it has the hope of being bailed out. Norther Euro countries are already facing long-term low export demand in the US and China. If Brussels bails out all the Euro states that really do need to be bailed out, several northern Euro countries will face the same world of low exports with a tremendous increase in debt obligation to Brussels. In the populist world of Euroland, this is not a good option. Oh, what a tangled web we weave when we let politicians create a currency, especially without a sovereign. DLS

Great piece today. Although I don't share Ash's rosy view on American cohesion. We're really not one culture and the disparity is growing. Our Civil War may have ended 155 years ago, but the embers were never quite extinguished. Wish I had capacity at my house to take a barrel or two of oil.

Private debt will become public debt funded by central banks (MMT or helicopter money). You wonder what would happen if we see strong inflation popping up in Europe (supply shock + overstimulus). Will they sell these government bonds on their balance sheet for price stability? Rates on government bonds would skyrocket. Governments will have to default on the debt. The asset side of the central bank balance sheet would take an additional hit. What would back the euro? Time to revalue gold? They better not overstimulate imo...

Lookin' sharp Ed!! Keep up the great content!

Great daily updates guys. Thanks. Just on Europe, I have lived in central (and eastern) europe and have family there. Whilst europeans love complaining and arguing with each other they all believe they are stronger together than on their own. Eueopeans are used to living under oppression. Its normal to them and in their DNA unlike Americans, Australians etc. Fiscal union will be forced on them because they truly are too scared of the alternative. WWI and WWII are in burnt into their collective memory (reminders are everywhere of war and soviet oppression) and it actually binds them together rather than pushes them apart. They just need another catalyst to put the first fiscal building blocks together...probably extreme weakness in the Euro currency would be enough to do it.

I lived in Italy for almost 15yrs. and have traveled around Europe extensively. I have experienced how culturally compartmentalized are European countries even within their own borders. For example, Romans, Venetians, etc., place being Romans and Venetians before being Italians. In Spain, Catalanes, Madrilenos, etc., place being Catalanes and Madrilenos before being Spaniards. My point is that it's surprising that the EU has survived this long and I believe that the only reason why it has survived is because it was being held together by the stronger economies but now the true colors are emerging and it seems that it's getting more fragile rapidly.

Traders exiting their positions does not fully explain yesterdays move in the front month /CLK0 futures contract. I think a better explanation being positions in the front month futures /CLK0 expiring today were FORCIBLY liquidated yesterday by Clearing Firms & Brokerages to remove the risk to themselves of customers being required to take delivery remembering of course they are very few OIL traders in /CL than could actually facilitate receiving a physical delivery of the black stuff. Also the reason the price went negative in /CLK0 (May Contract) was due to the price had to get below the cost of storage and by way of illustrating the principle i.e. no one would take delivery of oil even at $1 a barrel if the cost of storage was $30 so hence the price had to go negative in the front month contract for there to be any chance of a buyer being tempted to step in.

I stand ready to help traders with any storage shortages in gold for -$500.

Can someone enlighten me why retail investors are ploughing in to the USO etf, what am I missing?

The Fed has turned the stock market into a Ponzi scheme.

Thanks, guys, another good discussion. Speaking of sovereign debt, Argentina is back on the radar. (With more on the way?) On a technical note, when comparing corona virus cases in different countries, wouldn't it be more appropriate to list cases per million people?

Since when has morality been considered by these central planners? We need Austrian economics and we need it now.

Please bring the oil experts back for a show.

Always appreciate the time you guys put into these conversations.

Ash, very true. As an Italian living in NYC for almost 10 years, I can tell you that the US states are more similar to the regions within each European country than to the countries themselves. Between countries, there are the same differences as among USA, Canada and Mexico, so to speak. It's just different countries, with no "real" interest of being together, besides a currency and easier trade and travel. The big cultural differences will take a very long time - if ever - to be streamlined.

Ash that 420 remark made me lol. What companies are going to be floating this oil around?

Which ETF holds shale debt? Google doesn't seem to have an answer to this question :/ Also, great chat! You two rule :)

Nice! The RV boot camp twins! Love these daily updates. So hard to see the stock markets so high with oil, retail, the economy just collapsing. If u add on the cold war between US vs China, Russia & Saudi things are just escalating to a boiling point.

You guys nailed it here - this is proof of how quickly the mainstream narrative can deteriorate. I have a feeling this -$37 number today is going to look like a very obvious warning indicator for what was to come when we look back on all of this a decade from now.

How does this translates into bankruptcies in the oil sector? how would it play out. Im from Mexico and PEMEX was already struggling as it is, but what are the secondary and tertiary effects?

Thank you for addressing the opposite point of view and explaining the equities rally we experience.

Anyone think you can see similar thing happen to Brent in the coming month?

Where can I find Ed's article about sovereign/nonsovereign debtors? Great show as always guys ;)

A series of debt crises played key roles in the develop of the United States as a union. American cultural identity came with time. There have been iterations of European unity over a much longer history. I don't think it would be any less surprising than the US in coming together. The EU was unfortunately constructed by what was easiest first rather a logical chain of dependancies. The point that it is fiscal union or breakup is seems very accurate. Those are technical challenges though. The difference is that at every stage of American development someone was able to step forward and articulate a common idea. That doesn't seem forthcoming for the EU.

Raoul "oddly prescient" :)

Great show. Thank you both :)

This negative price is going to freak everyone in the oil biz. Expecting serious output pull-back. Expecting a steep drop in WTI supply soon rather than later. Short at your peril.

"It's 4:20pm on 4/20, like what are these guys smoking?" -Ash

The Fed cannot be the ECONOMY. Only higher oil prices will bail out shale. This requires the reemergence of oil demand and OPEC pricing, not the Fed. The Fed will have its hands full just bailing out the US government with no tax revenues and oceans of expenses. President Trump knows low revenue and high expenses are the fastest way to bankruptcy. He is trying to open the country for business to restart tax receipts. The problem is the earlier you open, the longer it will take to stay open. Absolutely no easy solution. DLS

Thanks

There seems to be a hidden message in these hair cuts... Time to "go short"? Hmm...