Daily Briefing – April 27, 2020

Published on
April 27th, 2020
Duration
30 minutes


Daily Briefing – April 27, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Ed Harrison

Published on: April 27th, 2020 • Duration: 30 minutes

Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision's Managing Editor Ed Harrison for analysis of the day's events. Bennington and Harrison discuss the shape & speed of the coming recovery as well as the different economic trajectories of the U.S. and Europe.

Comments

Transcript

  • VP
    Vincent P.
    29 April 2020 @ 03:39
    There is no way Covid deaths are under reported. Stop the madness
  • PC
    Peter C.
    28 April 2020 @ 14:34
    Great conversation. In general I agree with the relative difference between Northern Europe and regions with laggards such as Southern Europe and big parts of he US. However, I do not believe that the service sector in Northern Europa and in particular in major regions such as Germany and the Benelux can bounce back to 75-80% of normality by the end of Q2. We talk about economies 'opening up' but in practice this process is really slow. There will not be a material bounce in sectors such as hotels, restaurant, events, movie theaters, outdoor entertainment etc simply because they are not allowed or greatly impaired by travel restrictions. Other services like retail and non-critical healthcare will face bottlenecks due to imposed social distancing measures. On top of that you have parts of the population, in particular elderly with the deepest pockets, that will not engage as before because of fear for the virus that is still a thread. So overall, I am not confident that we see a significant rebound in Europe's economy (and its markets) in the near term. Having a more long term view does make me bullish about Northern Europe. The social safety net does save jobs. For example, in Belgium there is now a big deal because one of the retailers fired '24' people. It looks silly in comparision with the US. Most of the jobs are still protected by governement measures and temporary lay offs backed up by the social system. This is bad for governement debt but at least it helps people keeping there job and most of their spending power. Firing 'trillion dollar' bazookas in the pockets of the 1% doesn't really help to keep the system stable. Of course, I do believe major lay offs in Europe will happen later but they are less 'forced' compared to the US. So a restart is much easier in Europe. If, at that time, the FX markets also help the euro a bit, the economic rebound could go much faster than in the US. Regards, Peter.
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      28 April 2020 @ 15:41
      I disagree with your view on Northern Europe. All of the countires in the north are exporting economies and get hit harder by a steep drop in global demand and probable shift away from globalization. The social safety net provides security in the short term, but in the long term it is unsustaniable. Combine that with the worst demographics of Europe and the outlook isn't bright at all. The social policies turn into a huge handbrake in rising market conditions when they require sucjh massive taxation to maintain. They also disinsentivise the unemployed to seek job opportunities, which makes growing a business much harder. The most probable outlook for me in the long term is a bunch of zombie economies, just like Japan since 30 years ago.
    • PC
      Peter C.
      28 April 2020 @ 21:11
      I was referring to the next one to two years. A better handling of COVID and a weak euro may give Europe a head start so it may offer trading opportunities. I do agree with your overall view. At some level Europe is already Japan. The US will probably join the club when this crisis is over. We will need the EM for growth.
  • BP
    Bryce P.
    28 April 2020 @ 07:14
    I'm tired of all the C19 propaganda that's being espoused everyday. You recite nothing but the mainstream false narratives on C19. It's disgusting. That's not why I signed up for RV. Thought you were "cutting edge." Instead of talking about garbage vaccines that will indeed prove harmful. Why not talk about immune health and ways to build your immune system to stay healthy instead? In fact why don't you invite a REAL scientist on the program like Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai so everyone can actually learn something useful. DO BETTER RV!!!
    • DH
      Dabangg H.
      28 April 2020 @ 10:41
      Would call Shiva, but my EMAIl is not working!!
    • UJ
      Ulf J.
      28 April 2020 @ 17:10
      I think that is another story, what they are talking about is the economy and then you have to talk about the official story, the story if this is as bad as the government say or not will have no impact on the economy in the near term longer term if the narrative change then we talk about it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnbf9wccdxE this is a great interview from another side you like.
  • EH
    Edward H. | Real Vision
    28 April 2020 @ 13:27
    General comment here because of all the comments of disbelief regarding a positive outlook on Europe. Nothing we say is slanted for viewer preferences. Nor is it based on news flow i.e. dictated by recency bias because RV is about analysis, not news. So, when I say there's a negative sentiment but here's something positive, it's not meant to indicate I am forcing a positive narrative into a situation with mostly downside risk. Instead, I am pointing out that there is upside economic data surprise potential. What I'm seeing in the likes of Germany, New Zealand, Czech Republic, Denmark is the potential that lockdown restrictions can be removed faster and the economic snapback could proceed earlier. That's not to say it would be a V-shaped recovery or that consumers in places like Germany are already opening their wallets. They aren't. It's just increased foot traffic at this point (link in German https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/wirtschaft/fussgaenger-zahlen-nach-lockerung-corona-100.html). But over the next several weeks, re-opening will put a floor under stocks and mean that Europe could catch up to the US, which has already (temporarily) rallied into bull market territory. If you listen to what we said closely, you'll see that 1. the Bill Gates view of an L-shaped two-year return to normalcy is what I am calling a base case and 2. that the oil market is telling you that downside risks remain acute from global demand destruction. In short: Over the next several weeks, (Northern) Europe (and New Zealand) will look better than expected and better than the US. Remember,for example, that the eurozone PMI just printed 13, where 50 means recession. The basing effect from that low level will have a positive impact on sentiment. But, over the longer-term, consumption habits will have changed and precautionary savings will increase. There's no V-shaped recovery coming. This pandemic will have severe long-term economic consequences.
    • PS
      Pavel S.
      28 April 2020 @ 14:03
      This is correct. I live in the Czech Republic and situation here is completely fine and the lockdowns will get relaxed. We´ve made a lockdown early, there are not so many cases. People go out for daily walks, there is no strict lockdown. People are aware of the risks but shops will open next week. Even restaurants are scheduled to open on 11 May for the outside gardens and inner spaces of restaurants on 25 May. The virus will be here to stay for many years, you better get used to it. Send young people back to work, they will recover similarly as those 1m recovered cases in the past.
    • JG
      Johan G.
      28 April 2020 @ 15:19
      Here in Norway the lock down is easing. Kindergarten opened last Monday, this Monday school started again for 1-4th grade. Some restaurants opening this week, reduced capacity and strict measures for preventing virus spread. We are gradually going from home office to normal office. Very few restrictions on personal movement, and shops are gradually opening again. Road traffic picking up, but still far from normal. The r0 is around 0,66 according to authorities, test capacity ramping up drastically, and an app for tracing people and warning them if they have been close to someone sick has been implemented. I think we will 'beat the virus', i.e. get the number of cases down to such low levels that we can track and trace each one. Still it will be a 'new normality', and many business models will be dead. Cross fingers that we succeed, and best of success to New York in doing the same; you are having a rough time.
  • PS
    Pavel S.
    28 April 2020 @ 14:16
    great intro by Jack btw
  • II
    IDA I.
    28 April 2020 @ 06:40
    Mr. Harrison, yours seems to be optimism on Germany, not on Europe as a whole: it is true that our labor markets are less flexible in Europe and the health system is public, but we will need public spending now, and only Germany can spend. On a European level, barely anyone can spend without sending their debt situation out of control, I'm thinking of France which has a private debt + public debt of 300%, Italy which has public and private debt of 230% (yes the total is lower), etc. If Germany allows fiscal consolidation, they will get over the crisis with barely any raise in cost at all, because the total level of European debt is quite sustainable. Yes, Germany's interest rate could go from -0,5% to 0 with fiscal consolidation, but that would be good for the banks and pension systems. If German politics continue to dominate the decision making (there is the far right which is against fiscal consolidation) then Germany will continue to propose more credit to France and Italy, and this will create a fracture in the Euro system, and France and Italy will solve their problems on their own, they have nothing to lose, and who has the most to lose is Germany from such a fracture, Germany cannot afford to go back to a Deutsche mark which go up 30%, and so will not allow Italy to leave the Eurozone. I hope you will discuss this situation in one of your net dailies, thanks for all the work you do.
    • II
      IDA I.
      28 April 2020 @ 06:42
      I wanted to write in your next dailies.... it is impossible to correct typos...
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      28 April 2020 @ 13:33
      We are long overdue for a discussion about private debt in Europe, where Italy is in relatively good stead, as you point out. France, the Netherlands, Denmark all come to mind when I think of high levels of private debt. I want to introduce that topic into the briefing organically when it makes sense. But, I just wanted to flag your comments as well-noted and something we need to discuss. Thanks for the insights, Ida.
  • UJ
    Ulf J.
    28 April 2020 @ 05:24
    In the real economy, there is a hunt for real value and not stocks. There is a high risk in gold mining in some jurisdiction, https://www.mining.com/papua-new-guinea-snatches-barrick-golds-porgera-mine/
    • JT
      Jayne T.
      28 April 2020 @ 12:52
      Check out Novagold (NG), it is 100% US based in Alaska.
  • MD
    Mark D.
    28 April 2020 @ 12:03
    Thanks for the show - I really appreciate your comments and insights. My suggestion is not to be caught up on whether you are positive, negative or balanced enough, but rather, continuing to present what you believe is currently driving market sentiment. (We, as listeners, can decide afterwards whether we agree with you or not.) Again, I really enjoy the briefing.
  • SG
    Sven G.
    28 April 2020 @ 11:39
    I sense capitulation. The narrative has changed while the arguments have not. Now go and buy that top!
  • OC
    Otto C.
    27 April 2020 @ 23:50
    There is no mystery about the divergence between oil and the major indexes. Powerful rallies are almost a signature of bear markets. How can anyone realistically think that the worst is over when no one is working. Regarding the Germans using more credit cards could also be a sign that their reserves have been depleted so now they have no recourse but to use credit cards. I am an optimist but also a realist. I am getting ready to short the markets.
    • DS
      David S.
      28 April 2020 @ 05:12
      I do not think the shoppers in Germany have used up their cash reserves. If their personal reserves were low, I believe it is within character to just not spend money. DLS
    • CB
      Clifford B.
      28 April 2020 @ 11:13
      I lived in U.S. for 6 years, my wife is German and have been there countless times. Germans don't have access to credit cards like in the U.S. They have secured debit cards and from what i have seen in both countries, Germans tend to be ALOT more frugal with their money and carry less personal debt that in US, so as far as savings depletion i would think not.
  • AS
    Andrej S.
    28 April 2020 @ 10:44
    Please, have a look at the Baltic States in Europe. They seem to be the least affected by the epidemic and have opened their economies to even I wider extent than Germany. However, they are fairly small players in the European economy.
  • AW
    Abigail W.
    28 April 2020 @ 10:12
    I live in Germany and could not confirm the optimism of retailer picking-up in Germany, and I am more into deeper insights into the markets, not superficial news collection. Please make sure that one expert joins the daily briefing. Thanks
  • BH
    Ben H.
    27 April 2020 @ 22:54
    I am really curious about one thing that I was hoping someone could answer for me: Raoul Pal on Twitter has mentioned that if interest rates go negative (or if bond starts prices negative interest rates), it's a signal to sell equities. Wouldn't that be a signal to buy equities, as now there is a real opportunity cost to holding cash?
    • VB
      Vincent B.
      27 April 2020 @ 23:55
      The sovereign bond market predominantly signals where interest rates should go, the central banks follow suit. Rates are screaming negative due to the high demand for collateral/liquidity and 'safe' assets. That's a risk-off signal to the whole market.
    • NL
      Nicholas L.
      28 April 2020 @ 00:03
      I think he was saying that indicates the equities will fall. And I think a small % loss in bonds is preferable to a larger % of equities loss
    • BH
      Ben H.
      28 April 2020 @ 00:45
      Thanks Vincent and Nicholas. What if Fed goes negative this week? Would that also be a risk off signal, or would it make equities boom considering opportunity cost of holding cash?
    • VB
      Vincent B.
      28 April 2020 @ 08:08
      Ben, note that historically stocks and bonds have an inverse relationship (the whole risk parity trade). I think its fair to assume in this environment, when investors and lending institutions buy treasuries so much to drive them negative, that signals that something is obviously wrong, and equities likely to go down. In terms of response by the FED, it is hard to tell. Depending on the economic situtiation and sentiment FED cuts are interpreted differently. I'd assume at the moment another cut wouldn't move the needle much, but hard to tell how the equity market responds; it is not the most sophisticated market.
  • RL
    Ryan L.
    28 April 2020 @ 03:44
    I think a balance between optimism and pessimism is good but today seemed forced. I think RV members want to hear what you really think. and how you blend your thinking with a balanced investment thesis. If people shopping in Europe will have a significant impact on your investment thesis, then we should talk about it. but if it doesn't really, let's leave it out of the conversation and talk about the big ticket items that us listeners can have some more "aha" moments. Things we aren't seeing and don't fully appreciate that your team can but into layman terms.
    • NS
      Nir S.
      28 April 2020 @ 05:05
      +1
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      28 April 2020 @ 06:29
      Clearly I didn’t lay out the thinking well enough because that was what I really think. It WASN’T forced. What I was trying to say is that Europe is exiting its lockdown sooner and in a better position vis-a-vis pandemic testing and virus preparedness than expected. This presents (northern) Europe with upside relative to the US, which is weeks behind. 75-80% of pre-virus consumption levels by mid June are a base case. 80-90% is an upside case.
  • ca
    carlo a.
    28 April 2020 @ 06:17
    I live in Germany and there is no shopping. People is still scared and we are going out really really slowly. Unlikely we will see a V shape with economic data like that worlwide. This a a perfect hope-fed rally of a bear market.
  • ph
    phil h.
    28 April 2020 @ 06:10
    Really enjoyed the discussion today. It was delightful to hear the European flavour and in particular Ed’s german. After the show, I searched for Ed’s background. It’s not easy to find at a detailed level. And, I maybe missing something but I can’t find it on Real Vision either. For me it’s very interesting to know the background of the people I’m listening to. Surely that should be easily available on Real Vision. Your people are definitely your strength.
  • PC
    Peter C.
    28 April 2020 @ 03:01
    I really appreciate Ed's thoughtful & spoon feeding insights eg the shape of hospitalization curve and what it means now & going forward
  • TS
    Tom S.
    27 April 2020 @ 23:29
    Thanks as always to Jack, Ash and Ed. If I understood correctly there are a few interesting juxtapositions: - Jack spoke of credit difficulties facing credit card issuers - Ed pointed out increased use and rosey futures for credit card issuers. - The WHO rushes to announce that antibodies don't preclude reinfection or reactivation of coronavirus but they are again just a little late. South Korea had said the same thing as reported by Reuters on April 10th. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-idUSKCN21S15X - Finally a kindly set-dressing suggestion for Jack from an old theatre bum. Jack, you have a picture hung to the left of your bookcase. The left vertical frame is always visible. Take the darn thing down before you start your segment. Depending on your position relative to camera, it sometimes looks like you have a sharp pointy thing growing out of the top of your head. What you have to say is too well thought out for silly distraction.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      27 April 2020 @ 23:31
      Credit card delinquencies in the US will hit US banks. Increased European card usage will hit card systems and issuers.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      27 April 2020 @ 23:35
      Interesting analysis, Tom. (And thanks for the framing tip)
    • TS
      Tom S.
      27 April 2020 @ 23:38
      Thanks Edward. I got that, but it was a great juxtaposition, no?
    • DS
      David S.
      28 April 2020 @ 02:42
      It might be a flatscreen TV. Just change the camera angle. DLS
  • MB
    Mark B.
    28 April 2020 @ 01:14
    Guys, Please don’t regurgitate second hand news read from other people and then get it wrong through a lack of primary effort. RV is way better than that, you have built a fabulous reputation but this is how to destroy it in an instant, plus as concerned as you maybe about keeping your respective hair styles “tight” I would prefer some “tight financial analysis”. For your information the release from lock down and related optimism in Europe means so far for the most part that you can now go to the Park, or visit small shops one person at a time..... If either of you think that this represent a return to Economic growth with a mass return to work and a resumption of normal economic activity then try limiting that to a figure of perhaps a 15 – 20% improvement from the absolute worst position but so far NOTHING more.... Sorry you did nothing more than spread misinformation today and it needs to be pointed out... Lets have real information.. In depth analysis on the Credit Card defaults and how that plays out historically looking forward 6 12 months. How car payments and Auto loan defaults are going through the roof with the impact on new autos due to lost residuals, crash in used car values... Impacts on auto parts companies...... Apologies but todays briefing wasn’t a briefing it was a ramble.... and in many respects a shambles.... Sorry to be harsh but I really like what you do when its good because its great but that also highlights the contrast when its not.... Better tomorrow please.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      28 April 2020 @ 01:51
      I don’t think you understand the conversation. It’s not about returning to normalcy. Europe is coming out of lockdown from a PMI level of 13. That’s the present condition. It’s off the charts bad. The question is how much of an improvement is priced in, and will Europe outperform over the short or medium term. I am saying the upside potential for (Northern) Europe now outweighs the downside risk. Does that mean U- or L- shaped recovery still? Yes, but one that is better than expected.
    • CM
      Chris M.
      28 April 2020 @ 02:23
      Ed, posted at the top of the thread and will ask here. What do you mean by "one that is better than expected". Curious on RV's view of "expected". For a lot of people, "expected" appears to mean that by 2021 we will be back to 2020 levels. Some believe we will be there by the second half of 2020. Then I saw a travel expert today state that travel industry will not be back to 2019 levels until 2024. So possibly this gets to Mark's statement, what economic facts can we track down to get a sense of spending trends and then how does that compare to what is "expected" or compare to 2019 levels to get a sense of the impact of corona virus. While anecdotally your daughter's story is interesting, how do we extend that analysis to get a sense of the bounceback?
  • BF
    Billy F.
    28 April 2020 @ 02:22
    Thank Gentleman!!
    • BF
      Billy F.
      28 April 2020 @ 02:23
      Sorry Thank You!!
  • CM
    Chris M.
    28 April 2020 @ 02:08
    Not sure I agree with the term "economic rebirth" but do agree with "economic ramp up". As businesses open up, one expects some people will come out and some will shop. The key question for investors is at what level does this commerce stabilize in comparison to February. So the economy can only go up from being shut down, but how far did it go down from "normal" will be the $64,000 question as investors try to determine the macro for the next 2 years.
  • DS
    David S.
    28 April 2020 @ 02:01
    States that are opening businesses that cannot have social distancing have decided that the tradeoff between the economy and illness is acceptable for them. It would be wiser if they opened manufacturing type businesses where contact can be limited. It also seems to me that the Administration is employing a similar strategy believing the economic gains will outweigh the medical illnesses and death. It is a reasonable strategy for the Administration to be able to win the election. It is interesting that Tweets encourage opening the economy and official White House statements say not yet. Ultimately it is not up to the president, the governors or the mayors when to come back to work. Each person will have to make their own decision on working or social distancing. Hopefully, we are smart enough to figure this out. I would love to be open. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    28 April 2020 @ 01:55
    I agree Mr. Harrison that some European countries have better overall health care and safety nets for all. Others, however, just do not have the money to recover at a reasonable rate. There is a tug-of-war between the rich and poor countries of Euroland. The US is a consumer driven economy. Many people are not paying rent or mortgages now as they simply do not have the money. They will have to pay these at some point or move out like the mortgage crisis. Before long, the market will become a few stocks that should do well during COVID-19 duration. These companies will also be tested when the economy stays in hibernations for a long time. The rest of the stock market is in denial - no buybacks, companies overleveraging just to stay afloat until chapter 11, millions and millions of dollars not passively going into 401-Ks from small businesses owners and highly paid corporate staff. I hope that you are correct, but that is not how it looks to me. DLS
  • BH
    Ben H.
    28 April 2020 @ 00:42
    Would it be possible on tomorrow's RealVision Daily Briefing to talk about Fed's potential decisions on April 28-29 (eg. yield-curve control, negative interest rates), and maybe the consequences of these options on the equity and bond markets?
    • SM
      S M.
      28 April 2020 @ 01:38
      second this
  • MB
    Mark B.
    28 April 2020 @ 01:13
    Guys, Please don’t regurgitate second hand news read from other people and then get it wrong through a lack of primary effort. RV is way better than that, you have built a fabulous reputation but this is how to destroy it in an instant, plus as concerned as you maybe about keeping your respective hair styles “tight” I would prefer some “tight financial analysis”. For your information the release from lock down and related optimism in Europe means so far for the most part that you can now go to the Park, or visit small shops one person at a time..... If either of you think that this represent a return to Economic growth with a mass return to work and a resumption of normal economic activity then try limiting that to a figure of perhaps a 15 – 20% improvement from the absolute worst position but so far NOTHING more.... Sorry you did nothing more than spread misinformation today and it needs to be pointed out... Lets have real information.. In depth analysis on the Credit Card defaults and how that plays out historically looking forward 6 12 months. How car payments and Auto loan defaults are going through the roof with the impact on new autos due to lost residuals, crash in used car values... Impacts on auto parts companies...... Apologies but todays briefing wasn’t a briefing it was a ramble.... and in many respects a shambles.... Sorry to be harsh but I really like what you do when its good because its great but that also highlights the contrast when its not.... Better tomorrow please.
  • DL
    Dominic L.
    28 April 2020 @ 00:48
    "The presence of antibodies may not ensure immunity." Is this as chilling as I think it is?
    • DP
      Daniella P.
      28 April 2020 @ 01:02
      Unfortunately, yes. this possibility isn’t getting enough discussion. longest immunity i’ve heard of was to an experimental MERS vaccine that lasted 3 years. longest SARS was 2 years, other coronaviruses even shorter. suggests this vaccine, if we ever get it, may be more like a marginally effective influenza vaccine than a lifelong immunity generating one like polio. a vaccine is an end game based on a lot of hope
    • DS
      David S.
      28 April 2020 @ 01:12
      Yes. Dr. Gottlieb stated that you may have some level of immunity. Not enough information to know yet. Don't forget the current antibody test gives false positives. The test may show that you have antibodies, but you don't. DLS https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/27/gottlieb-sees-some-level-of-immunity-for-most-who-had-coronavirus.html
  • AT
    Allan T.
    28 April 2020 @ 00:41
    Thanks for the updates guys. Any thoughts on the rise of Silver and Gold miners trading at or above their pre-coronavirus levels? Many are 2x from their March lows, and sentiment seems very bullish. Uranium as well is performing surprisingly well.
  • UD
    URBANO D.
    28 April 2020 @ 00:19
    .
  • jR
    james R.
    28 April 2020 @ 00:18
    i think u can stop opening up with covid 19 updates. the market clearly doesn’t care how many people are ill, recovered. dead, etc.
  • MS
    Micah S.
    27 April 2020 @ 22:38
    Anyone else getting an error trying to play this video? other videos are working fine, in Chrome browser on iPad it's not working.
    • FL
      Fabio L.
      28 April 2020 @ 00:14
      Get the app
  • SL
    Simon L.
    28 April 2020 @ 00:13
    Am I the only one having trouble casting this Video on tv?
  • CM
    Cory M.
    27 April 2020 @ 23:19
    Ash, After perfectly pronouncing "shandenfreude", it's be great to hear "primer" and "prescient" pronounced correctly! Other than that, you're the perfect t.v. business journalist. Thanks for all your work.
    • CM
      Cory M.
      27 April 2020 @ 23:20
      Hahaha. I mistyped "It'd". I'll go easier on you.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      28 April 2020 @ 00:13
      Ha!
  • BK
    Brigitte K.
    28 April 2020 @ 00:08
    Schaufensterbummeln in Cologne - great to hear about that as a girl from that town:)
  • ZF
    Zach F.
    27 April 2020 @ 23:37
    Ash, would you please stop interrupting Ed after you ask him a question? It’s very cringy and you do it a lot. What ever tidbits (like where the SPX closes...) you feel people need to know right now, I promise can wait for a minute.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      28 April 2020 @ 00:06
      Hi, Zach. We enjoy doing free-flowing conversations on RV. Sometimes, though, it's important to break in to provide necessary context, particularly around data points.
  • CN
    Charles N.
    28 April 2020 @ 00:05
    Ed is more positive because Europe is easing lockdown guidelines. What percent of Europe/German economy is consumer driven as opposed to US? It would seem to me that it's not quite an apples to strudel comparison. Northern Eurozone may be opening up but even if they get back to a large part of their normal economic numbers...to whom are they going to be selling their exports? I would look to China as a better analog for the Eurozone when extrapolating outcome probabilities. The US is such a huge consumer-driven economy that it has literally supported so much of the world economy for quite a while. And...as the Eurozone citizen is more of a 'cash-based' mindset...the US consumer is up to her eyeballs in debt. Not disagreeing wholeheartedly with Ed's thesis, but think it could be extended a bit. Cheers to all at RealVision
  • JN
    Jill N.
    27 April 2020 @ 23:52
    Thanks Guys as always for your insights , could I ask please that the COVID 19 discussion is pared back a bit to perhaps a max of 3 minutes per session? Today’s COVID’s discussion seemed to go on forever as I eagerly awaited the daily market updates , if possible I would prefer for the Daily Briefing not to have lengthy discussion on COVID19 especially if it’s to go on until June !
  • GS
    Gerald S.
    27 April 2020 @ 23:20
    I understand Ed's observations, but just can't bring myself to see them as bullish. If retail activity goes from lock-down levels, let's say 30% of peak, to something like 60% of peak that sounds great. But the market it pricing in 85+% of all time high economic activity. Is this forward looking or just too optimistic? Perhaps I'd be bullish if the S&P was down over 50%, but not from this level.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      27 April 2020 @ 23:26
      It’s not the S&P though. We’re talking Eurostoxx.
    • GS
      Gerald S.
      27 April 2020 @ 23:41
      Sorry, caught that at the end. I understand now. Thanks for the clarification.
  • CW
    Claude W.
    27 April 2020 @ 22:11
    Schaufensterbummeln, some advanced German here :-)
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      27 April 2020 @ 22:27
      I did my share of Schaufenaterbummeln in the 1990s when shops closed at like 5 or 6. It was absolute torture. Great for the shopping fanatics maybe, but I was ready for the pub instead.
    • HC
      Hahns C.
      27 April 2020 @ 22:46
      Ed - is that glückliche Biertrinktage?
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      27 April 2020 @ 23:10
      Hahns C. Langer Donnerstag was the day. No Schaufensterbummeln because stores were open. Then straight to the pub. Glorious!
  • MT
    Mark T.
    27 April 2020 @ 22:40
    Great segment today. I have a ton of respect for Jeffrey Gundlach. His presentations over on Doubleline, along with Mr. Sherman's podcasts are very informative. However, I do always get slightly skeptical when people announce they are shorting something, though his reasoning is sound, from my point of view at least.
    • AL
      Austin L.
      27 April 2020 @ 22:55
      Any color on why your skeptical of this? Do you feel they are talking their book? Because this notion would apply to any announced long position as well if that's the case.
    • MT
      Mark T.
      27 April 2020 @ 23:08
      I guess just from the sense that when one has a big enough loud speaker, they can 'make the market' and some short sellers are known for taking a position and then vocally pounding the narrative of why the stock/stocks are over-valued. Do I think that is the case here? No, not really. The fundamentals to me scream a re-test of March lows.
  • Lv
    Liliane v.
    27 April 2020 @ 22:50
    I hope your daughter is enjoying studying in Cologne, Ed. I still have a lot of friends in Bavaria, it will be interesting on how they progress with opening up and what will happen.
  • DS
    David S.
    27 April 2020 @ 22:26
    Mr. Harrison, I hope your optimism will be rewarded with improvements in the European economy for the sake of the people. Many of them have been through a horrible experience, as most parts of the world. I am reminded, however, of Aristotle's saying about the returning swallow from migration : "One swallow does not a summer make, nor one fine day; similarly one day or brief time of happiness does not make a person entirely happy." DLS