Ed (and also Ash), you need to learn to "draw" your invisible charts ("V" and "L") from right to left, not left to right. You are drawing them for yourself, not for the audience. For instance, if you draw in the air an "L", it should look like this to you.: i l l ____ It will appear like an "L" to your audience.

Nice work on the introductions by Nick Correa, pleasant watch, and listening. Clean and simple!

Are we going to need a catalyst (resurgence in an opening region) to have the market "snap-in-lin" with economic fundamentals (if it will), or is it going to be a slow realization of underlying conditions?

"... France, interestingly enough, when you combine public and private debt together, that is a house of cards that is potentially a combustible" It's a veritable cathedral!

It is frustrating to place trades to downside and loss money - lots of it. Depressing to know a real live "depression" is here, but the equity markets don't reflect the current, near term or even 18-month forward looking economic conditions. I think the Millennial generation can't catch a break, they were hit by epic events in 2001, 2008 and 2020. My 25 yr-old son is finally out of law school this July (with 6-figure $$ debts)- let's pray he keeps the position he was offered last summer. If the Administration and Congressional politicians think they have it rough from press today - wait until the S&P hits +3,000 and the unemployment rate hits +18 to 20%. Civil unrest from splinter groups like Antifa, BLM, or far-right and white supremacist groups in the US are potentially a factor that is not being discussed. There is a fierce growing resentment towards China today - similar to the way Germans resented the wealthy Jews in the 1920's for the economic hardships of that era. Vielen Dank für die tolle Show.

gdp down 35% requires 17 years of 2.5% growth, year after year, no recessions, to get back to January 2020 level of gdp - where will the financial capital of the world be - USA or some Asian country - stay tuned

Always impressed by the amount of new info and insights you deliver every day. There is so much news flow and data out there. How do you track all of this, review and contextualize it in these most unusual times and then present it so eloquently here? For example you just discovered negative put options... Makes me wanna witness a working day of Ed and Ash to see how they do that. I'm already overwhelmed by my office emails ;-)

I LOVE this program!

When Ash finally converts from bearish to bullish that might just be the top of the market's bounce ; )

Good to get our downbeat Ed back again today, I was not buying it yesterday.

You had put options trading at negative prices? Do you mean you had negative strike put options trading at positive prices?

Great briefing! I know it must be hard to keep the briefing interesting and relevant on a daily basis that is stretching on for weeks. As you analyze the market impact - could you give your input on buybacks? In the last few years RV experts have said repeatedly that the only buyer of stocks were corp buybacks. Have the buybacks stopped? and if so why is the market still going up? Also is there any contagion effect rippling thru the global economy? Are oil, and repo markets symptoms of a crisis brewing that has yet to surface in the financial markets? It seems to me that the Fed is going to run out of fingers to plug holes in the Dam. Is there any hard data analysis on the financial impact of labor market decrease vs Fiscal and Monetary stimulus? In other words, is the stimulus equal to the payroll loss and business losses? How much would it take to be equal on a sustained basis? Same question with the Hi Yield market - can the Fed print enough money to keep all the fallen angles afloat?

Chide positively to renew... offer generous praise where its due! Today’s Daily briefing was way better, showing a marked improvement over yesterday and return to form, so thank you both for that, keep up the better focus and incisive perceptive observations, commentary, and most of all balanced observations.... For my own part I think your observations at the end of the video were insightful albeit that I don’t agree with them re the lock down. IMHO the US is way too optimistic about resuming activity. The Singapore and German experience highlight that the post lock down economic activity and max capacity / supply / demand is going to be at a NEW normal and that will be substantially lower than the previous relationship of activity to profit permitted where fixed costs and prior commitments will require an adjustment many, many business’s just aren’t capable of making and results in Raoul’s doom loop scenario.... Markets have not woken up this reality.... YET! But when they fail to get out of lock down in early / mid May as anticipated it will begin to dawn on them everything is not quite so good as current valuations require and the old adage of sell in May and go away may really take hold!! Lets see what US GDP tells us in a minute or two! Best, and thanks.

When will fight the Fed Raoul be giving us his take on what going on? Agree with ED, here in Europe slowly going back to normal... so we hope !!

Dear real vision, can you talk about some investment ideas in the current crisis - what would work rather than talking about oil which is nearly unpredictable. Some businesses are not effected than others. Good places to be are maybe food, some residential REITs, and special consumer goods. Their dividends seems more stable to me in the coming months. Since the crisis started I add ADM, KMB, AFL and IRT to my portfolio but missed to buy more from the IT Sector in the liquidation phase.

Howard Marks: we're down only 15% from what were all-time highs, but it seems like things are more than 15% damaged (paraphrased). Me: sell in May and go short.

Something that I keep trying to wrap my head around. PreCovid-19 wasn't growth directly related to the increase in debt? Looking ahead will the governments be expanding debt, or just taking over existing debt? If that's the case, does that mean if debt growth is flat, then growth is zero? Ed, you made mention of new debt issuance. Will this be roll over-issuance or new debt?

Have not seen Raoul in a while, will he be coming back soon? Would be really interested to hear an update on his idea of liquidation, hope and insolvency. E.g. what are the likelihood of the short term bull market we have seen to be the last wave of a liquidation phase, or is it the hope phase according to him? Does the framework still stand?

I didn't read the article because it is behind a firewall but I wonder how Jeremy Warner's bullish scenario accounts for the impact of the crisis on emerging markets? How do you avoid a depression in about 50% of the market (ex JPN, EU, US) where massive fiscal and monetary stimilus is basically impossible or at least less 'unlimited' due to dollar denominated debt and fragile currencies? And how do you deal with the massive oil glut that will likely depress oil prices for a long time and impairs oil-producing nations? Does he really believe that the US, UK and others with fiscal and monetary power will be insulated from a global crisis and continue the 'secular bull market'? I cannot imagine that for some countries the COVID crisis will just be a bump in the road while other will face a deep recession and a much longer recovery.

I haven’t read the Telegraph article but the great depression can’t be simply explained by a lack of aggregate demand. Inflationary monetary policy of the 1920’s caused a rise in wages and prices. The problems faced by the American economy in the 1930s were linked to fixing of wages and prices. Wages were set too high, resulting in a very high unemployment rate. They didn’t allow a drop in price levels either after the 1929 bust. Some agricultural products were even burned to maintain these high price levels. All of this was done to maintain prices at the pre-1929 boom levels while holding onto the delusion that the dollar had still maintained its value compared to gold. The effects would have been far less disastrous had they revalued the dollar to gold at a market determined price and let wages and prices adjust freely.

Great discussion as always. Thanks! I wonder if you could cover Oil ETCs. They look on paper to be one of the remaining trading opportunities in this crisis but perhaps all is not as clear as it seems...?

More media hysteria . Numbers do not justify the hysteria they are close to flu . If you guys keep it up we may all commit suicide . Germany recovered from WW 2 , so the world will recover from this despite you two doom mongers.

Good conversation as always. Regarding New York really starting to look like DeBlasio and Cuomo (who is still putting coronavirus patients in nursing homes) were way late in the game in dealing with this pandemic and a root cause of the spread. 30% of US deaths with 3% of the population (!). The way Seattle handled it is in stark comparison to New York. https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/blame-bill-de-blasio/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Deflationary forces caused by demand destruction will likely last a year or so, as currently reflected in oil and bond prices and dollar strength. Government stimulus will likely relieve some of this pressure without reversing it. Yet in a couple of years will inflationary forces be ascendant? Private sector demand will eventually come back and government monetary and fiscal stimulus will most likely overshoot. Meanwhile the supply side will likely be constrained due to reworking of supply chains, the effect of low prices, government regulation and the resilience versus efficiency debate. Short term deflation and long term inflation seems the most likely outcome of the pandemic.

Can you imagine the clothing industry? if you work from home a few days a week, and never go out, you need much much less clothing...

I think you guys are getting a bit carried away. We are not at war. Worldwide deaths are still lower than a typical flu season. Sweden has had a much lighter lockdown and deaths/million are similar to the rest of the world.

"Depression with a small 'd' is my base case." Ed! What happened?? Yesterday you were doing so well playing the "reformed bear" only to fall back off the wagon so quickly. Ok, I'll help. Try this: say "Schaufensterbummel" 10x in the morning when you wake, and another 10x before you go to sleep at night.

Is it fair to compare Greece to Italy? It's one thing having $200B GDP nation potentially exiting the EuroZone, another having $2.2T GDP nation potentially exiting the EuroZone (personal savings aside!). Fiscal union will never happen, that is the flaming house of cards. Really enjoying your daily discourse.

As a 40 year veteran of the oil patch, let me assure everyone.... we may have $20 oil “today” but as sure as eggs are eggs, we will have $120 oil sooner than you can imagine.

Jim Rickards twitter..............New survey shows that of those who received IRS stimulus checks, 38% added to savings, 26% paid off debt, and 18% planned to spend but not yet. As I warned, there's no "stimulus" in the stimulus. Classic liquidity trap.

We are in Deep Shit here in Australia. The Mortgage Debt is Astronomical & most of it is IO, and the amount of Loans going over to P&I is still very significant. I see Banks here dragging out the Term beyond 30 years and rolling over the P&I back into IO. If they don't do this then the Property Market is going to crash. The slow down in Private Credit is going to crush the Economy any which way you slice it. Aussie's just can't borrow anymore Coin from here.

Not so sure I agree with the EU coming together........ but pigs might fly....

Is that a bible behind Ed?

We still don't know what the best tactics are for recovering the economy while keeping the virus from overwhelming the hospitals. I am very glad to see different states taking different approaches, so that we can learn more about what works and what doesn't. Some may say - after the fact - that lives could have been saved if everyone had taken Michigan's approach, or that the economy recovered much faster in Georgia, but for now, we just don't know, and by allowing different states and even cities to try different approaches, I hope we can get some actual data on what works better.

Can we please just STOP reporting china's numbers as if being anywhere near legitimate? Thanks!

I am pleased you brought up the "perception" scenario. This would probably lead to the population scared into thinking of shortages in food, as the raids on supermarkets in bulk buying has already shown. Politicians harping on about doom and gloom makes people believe the worst. Here in New Zealand we have unfortunately had a rise in suicides, very concerning. Countries need to undergo a full enquiry into the response to this virus. But as always very informative discussion as usual, keep this segment going please.

The bottom line is that they cannot print wealth. If a depression is in this it will out regardless of what they do, it will simply become an inflationary depression if they throw enough funny money at it. The thirties was a depression, sure they made it longer than needed but to say it was caused by a policy error isn't true.

What I cant get over is the interview with a very smart guest "Richard Koo" who wrote "Balance sheet recession" what's happening with rates at 0% might end up like how he explained. If RV is able to I would love to hear Richard's opinion on what might happen and what he sees.

Well done. I know it is difficult to get this together each day. Looking at the similar levels of an index leads to fallacy of composition problems. Both of you have spoken about this, but it might be informative for viewers to see some changes in composition like Amazon over time. DLS

Thank you again Ash and Ed, I have been following your work from the beginning, this evenings daily briefing was the most important one to date.

Great show today! Thank you :)

Since these daily briefings don't have transcripts any chance you guys could summarize it in 3-5 bullet points under written summary? That way if its something interesting I can look up that part of the video, otherwise a lot of the stuff in daily briefings becomes information overload.

Based on the data I've seen and heard epidemiologists talk about, if I were over age 60 or had serious underlying health issues, I wouldn't leave quarantine. If I wasn't in this group, I'd be fine with everything opening up again.

Hi Guys, Wondering what your take is of the corona crisis on the Canadian economy. With world leading household debt, housing bubbles and low oil prices, what options does the BOC have other than to print money? Obviously this would have a significant impact on the CAD vs USD but are there any other spillover effects? Thanks

Buy the lockdown, sell the re-opening?