Daily Briefing – April 30, 2020

Published on
April 30th, 2020
Duration
30 minutes


Daily Briefing – April 30, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Nick Correa, Ed Harrison, and Roger Hirst

Published on: April 30th, 2020 • Duration: 30 minutes

Real Vision's Managing Editor Ed Harrison sits down with Roger Hirst to discuss what's going on in markets today. Harrison and Hirst touch on the economic numbers coming out of the U.S. and Europe, the possibility of China exporting deflation, and how the market will move forward in light of this information.

Comments

Transcript

  • DB
    Daniella B.
    3 May 2020 @ 09:20
    Great interview! I think US gov will put some 'checks' around Chinese exports growth if yuan devalues.
  • RG
    Razmig G.
    2 May 2020 @ 05:39
    There's an economist David Hunter on twitter who also has been calling for SPX upto 4000 for a while now, Had been also calling that the FED will throw the kitchen sink as they have.
  • JG
    Johan G.
    1 May 2020 @ 21:03
    OOPs, my bad. Saw that they contemplated a government loan, but managed to secure market loan. Well done Boeing!
  • JG
    Johan G.
    1 May 2020 @ 21:00
    Roger, interesting analysis as usual, but I think you may have misread some facts on the airline industry. Norwegian is not getting a bailout by the Norwegian government, they are getting a three tranche staggered liquidity injection where each one is conditional, total of only USD 300Mill. Government knows that the real debt is with Irish leasing companies, equity is gone, and gov. has no intention of bailing out either; equity or lease companies. The deal proposed by Norwegian airlines towards creditors is a pure market deal of debt equity swap which will probably close over the weekend. In the mean time Boeing just announced that they have secured 25Billion USD soft long term(up to 40 years) loans from US governments. I wonder what interest they are paying....... So who is the most market oriented government here? LOL
  • DS
    David S.
    1 May 2020 @ 02:09
    Where's Italy among the countries listed in the pre-interview data?
    • GH
      Gabrielle H. | Real Vision
      1 May 2020 @ 16:56
      Hi David, Italy was, interestingly enough, not part of that study that Nick was drawing upon, but the Daily Briefing team would love to dive deeper into Italy's data specifically for next week--so stay tuned in for it!
    • DS
      David S.
      1 May 2020 @ 20:53
      Gabrielle H. - Be careful where you dive in Italian debt. It is a bottomless pit. In addition to many scary creatures swimming around below the surface. For practice you might find Dante’s Inferno less dangerous. DLS
  • AS
    Amit S.
    1 May 2020 @ 15:56
    Roger always a fantastic and interesting narrative to explain the market!
  • MH
    M.F. H.
    1 May 2020 @ 15:43
    Could you discuss oil today? Funny moves going on.
  • MT
    Mark T.
    1 May 2020 @ 14:47
    I think Roger mentioned an increase in savings rates. How much of that, or how reliable is that number if consumers have very few options to actually spend since most things are closed? Will we see that savings rate drop back down to normal levels once retail/services opens up again?
  • UJ
    Ulf J.
    1 May 2020 @ 07:14
    I am just a blue-collar worker but you guys talk so it all makes sense, I live in a mining town and the mine is expanding so part of the town (around 2500 people) needs to be build up 10 km south we are around 18000 people in the county. I am in construction and even then I have a job I get phone calls and companies need to hire more skilled people the mining company also owns real estate and the business renting only needs to pay half rent. I remember 1974 almost overnight the mining company LKAB laid of private contractors and it was a big downturn that lasted to I think 1985 before to slowly started to turn around. In a letter written by Mining Director from 1973 December, the concern is the oil embargo from Saudis what impact it will have. The Swedish state injected 2,8 billion SEK 1978, and 1982 LKAB had to reduce the workforce from 6500 to 3700 people and 1,5 Billion SEK from the state was given to the company. My point is it can go south really fast and last a long time but the youth today has not in their mindset that bad times exist in this place it has been golden years since 2000 and easy to borrow money with high salaries when those who live together both works in the mine earn 50000 SEK and up after-tax it easy to pay off debt but you could fall hard. In the end, it is the real economy that counts.
  • MK
    Max K.
    1 May 2020 @ 07:08
    Slow grinding recovery into a coma
  • JC
    John C.
    1 May 2020 @ 05:51
    Great summary as always. Ed did a great job moderating and Roger had some very interesting insights. Thanks guys!
  • DL
    Dominic L.
    1 May 2020 @ 02:19
    Why do two people always thumbs-down these before they've even aired?
    • Am
      Alex m.
      1 May 2020 @ 04:40
      yep - this is a great series and getting better
  • BG
    Barry G.
    1 May 2020 @ 04:22
    Was this recorded after markets in the US? If so, there was nothing about the two biggest companies in the NAS earning reports.
  • JA
    Jerram A.
    1 May 2020 @ 04:20
    Roger's a gun. All over it.
  • KD
    Kaj D.
    1 May 2020 @ 01:54
    Nick's pre interview details were outstanding. Will be extremely interesting to track economies in the months ahead based on measures taken - not easy to account for all of the relevant variables though. Thx
  • BB
    Bob B.
    1 May 2020 @ 01:50
    Not an "L" rather a reverse check mark
  • MC
    Michael C.
    1 May 2020 @ 01:35
    Roger you mentioned the jury is out on whether passive/rules based sytems can keep pushing markets higher since they don't care about valuation. This is a flow model that assumes mandated positive net flows are always available to push markets higher (Its a very US centric concept since RoW experience is different). Do we really think markets can be a perpetual motion machine that escapes the law of entropy? I wonder if you have seen any updated flow models that adjust for structural (deflationary) shifts in inputs (higher savings rate, higher long term unemployment, lower coroprate cashflows from deglobalisation, bably boomers cashing out faster, etc) that might challenge the positive net flow argument? Also wondering how much of this net flow into risk assets is leverage (eg repo) and therefore makes the system more fragile than expected? Pension flows into index funds are not leveraged but rules based trading is very leveraged.
  • ZF
    Zach F.
    1 May 2020 @ 01:11
    Really look forward to your weekly brief with Ed Harrison and Roger Hirst. Always an excellent take and very well done. Thank you sirs!
  • PB
    Paul B.
    1 May 2020 @ 00:40
    Cant see Boeing selling too many Jets for a while
  • PB
    Paul B.
    1 May 2020 @ 00:26
    She's gonna roll over I reckon...Insolvency will start to accelerate this month.
  • BK
    Bruce K.
    30 April 2020 @ 23:53
    Would love to follow Roger on Twitter ... what is his handle?
    • JH
      Joe H.
      30 April 2020 @ 23:56
      @rogerhirst4
    • TR
      Tim R.
      1 May 2020 @ 00:21
      yeah dude is great, probably too busy making $$$ to put out content :D~
  • TT
    Tokyo T.
    30 April 2020 @ 23:48
    So many good comments about these vids. Nick's key points summary intro is useful too. Keep it up, guys.
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    30 April 2020 @ 23:35
    Got to say I've really enjoyed these daily briefings guys. Nice to see you express your opinions versus just interviewing...! Keep it coming!
  • HS
    Hugh S.
    30 April 2020 @ 23:27
    Daily Briefing has become my go to source each morning. Keep up the good work guys!
  • AD
    Alexandre D.
    30 April 2020 @ 22:47
    So now we must know - what is Roger’s dog’s name/breed ?
    • MF
      Mike F.
      30 April 2020 @ 23:02
      My guess is a mid-sized chocolate coloured labradoodle called Colin.