Comments
Transcript
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DBGreat interview! I think US gov will put some 'checks' around Chinese exports growth if yuan devalues.
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RGThere's an economist David Hunter on twitter who also has been calling for SPX upto 4000 for a while now, Had been also calling that the FED will throw the kitchen sink as they have.
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JGOOPs, my bad. Saw that they contemplated a government loan, but managed to secure market loan. Well done Boeing!
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JGRoger, interesting analysis as usual, but I think you may have misread some facts on the airline industry. Norwegian is not getting a bailout by the Norwegian government, they are getting a three tranche staggered liquidity injection where each one is conditional, total of only USD 300Mill. Government knows that the real debt is with Irish leasing companies, equity is gone, and gov. has no intention of bailing out either; equity or lease companies. The deal proposed by Norwegian airlines towards creditors is a pure market deal of debt equity swap which will probably close over the weekend. In the mean time Boeing just announced that they have secured 25Billion USD soft long term(up to 40 years) loans from US governments. I wonder what interest they are paying....... So who is the most market oriented government here? LOL
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DSWhere's Italy among the countries listed in the pre-interview data?
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ASRoger always a fantastic and interesting narrative to explain the market!
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MHCould you discuss oil today? Funny moves going on.
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MTI think Roger mentioned an increase in savings rates. How much of that, or how reliable is that number if consumers have very few options to actually spend since most things are closed? Will we see that savings rate drop back down to normal levels once retail/services opens up again?
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UJI am just a blue-collar worker but you guys talk so it all makes sense, I live in a mining town and the mine is expanding so part of the town (around 2500 people) needs to be build up 10 km south we are around 18000 people in the county. I am in construction and even then I have a job I get phone calls and companies need to hire more skilled people the mining company also owns real estate and the business renting only needs to pay half rent. I remember 1974 almost overnight the mining company LKAB laid of private contractors and it was a big downturn that lasted to I think 1985 before to slowly started to turn around. In a letter written by Mining Director from 1973 December, the concern is the oil embargo from Saudis what impact it will have. The Swedish state injected 2,8 billion SEK 1978, and 1982 LKAB had to reduce the workforce from 6500 to 3700 people and 1,5 Billion SEK from the state was given to the company. My point is it can go south really fast and last a long time but the youth today has not in their mindset that bad times exist in this place it has been golden years since 2000 and easy to borrow money with high salaries when those who live together both works in the mine earn 50000 SEK and up after-tax it easy to pay off debt but you could fall hard. In the end, it is the real economy that counts.
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MKSlow grinding recovery into a coma
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JCGreat summary as always. Ed did a great job moderating and Roger had some very interesting insights. Thanks guys!
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DMWhy do two people always thumbs-down these before they've even aired?
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BGWas this recorded after markets in the US? If so, there was nothing about the two biggest companies in the NAS earning reports.
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JARoger's a gun. All over it.
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KDNick's pre interview details were outstanding. Will be extremely interesting to track economies in the months ahead based on measures taken - not easy to account for all of the relevant variables though. Thx
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BBNot an "L" rather a reverse check mark
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MCRoger you mentioned the jury is out on whether passive/rules based sytems can keep pushing markets higher since they don't care about valuation. This is a flow model that assumes mandated positive net flows are always available to push markets higher (Its a very US centric concept since RoW experience is different). Do we really think markets can be a perpetual motion machine that escapes the law of entropy? I wonder if you have seen any updated flow models that adjust for structural (deflationary) shifts in inputs (higher savings rate, higher long term unemployment, lower coroprate cashflows from deglobalisation, bably boomers cashing out faster, etc) that might challenge the positive net flow argument? Also wondering how much of this net flow into risk assets is leverage (eg repo) and therefore makes the system more fragile than expected? Pension flows into index funds are not leveraged but rules based trading is very leveraged.
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ZFReally look forward to your weekly brief with Ed Harrison and Roger Hirst. Always an excellent take and very well done. Thank you sirs!
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PBCant see Boeing selling too many Jets for a while
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PBShe's gonna roll over I reckon...Insolvency will start to accelerate this month.
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BKWould love to follow Roger on Twitter ... what is his handle?
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NPSo many good comments about these vids. Nick's key points summary intro is useful too. Keep it up, guys.
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BSGot to say I've really enjoyed these daily briefings guys. Nice to see you express your opinions versus just interviewing...! Keep it coming!
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HSDaily Briefing has become my go to source each morning. Keep up the good work guys!
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ADSo now we must know - what is Roger’s dog’s name/breed ?