Daily Briefing – August 11, 2020

Published on
August 11th, 2020
Duration
31 minutes


Daily Briefing – August 11, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Ash Bennington and Tyler Neville

Published on: August 11th, 2020 • Duration: 31 minutes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Tyler Neville to discuss secular stagnation and the financial chicanery happening in markets. With stocks rising above global GDP, Ash and Tyler consider how the increase in bond issuance has been electric all while yields aren't rising. Tyler also argues how people look at markets through a political lens, but not a demographic lens, and how demographics can further shape an investor's understanding of what's occurring. They also talk about the DXY in juxtaposition with the federal deficit, the relationship between spot gold and gold miners, and what the future holds for pension funds.

Comments

Transcript

  • JT
    John T.
    12 August 2020 @ 04:48
    I really like Tyler’s perspective. I’ve been using a strategy of long gold miners and short IWM, and the puts have been eating all my gains and then some. Perhaps in the next blow-off top, I’ll exit the rest of my puts and focus more purely on “stores of value” as he calls it. My “bear market roadmap” just isn’t working, and I’m beginning to think he’s right that you don’t want to be short equities until yields rise in JNK and LQD.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      12 August 2020 @ 09:54
      John, this not the forum to provided masses of words, so if in the following is at least able to spike your interest I hope it might be moderately interesting, but you'll have to do the real work yourself. COST BASIS REDUCTION! Firstly you'll not hear many folks talk about it, certainly not on RV, but the subject of COST BASIS REDUCTION is vitally important. Put simply when trading Stocks, Futures or Options and you buy something, anything at all, one should as a matter of best practice always sell something against it to smooth out movement in Porfolio P&L. A very simple example might be you bought PUTS in IWM as a short strategy, don't leave it there with a position made up of purely long puts, sell some PUTS against it. Deciding if such a spread should be made up as a vertical, calendar, diagonal or ratio spreads is beyond the scope of this forum, but I'll give you a quick tip: when evaluating a theoretical spread start out where the short option has an Extrinsic Value of approax 50% of the Long Option Extrinsic, that's not all of it, but a good place to start. It'll be a months work researching COST BASIS REDUCTION, and optimal way to set up Option Spreads - you'll be surprised how many folks make a complete hash, even so called professionals are not immune.
    • CO
      Craig O.
      12 August 2020 @ 19:41
      @MikeT I understand the concept but don't have a way to evaluate optimal spread configs. Thx for the tip on ratio of extrinsic value between the two. Any book (or other resources) you'd point an apprentice to for more in-the-weeds learning on optimizing the spread?
    • MT
      Mike T.
      13 August 2020 @ 11:07
      @ Craig G https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-mindset/episodes/refresher-credit-spreads-04-02-2020 https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-mindset/episodes/diagonal-spread-debit-06-18-2020 https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-mindset/episodes/refresher-debit-spreads-04-03-2020 https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-mindset/episodes/relative-spread-width-06-25-2020 https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-mindset/episodes/bullish-strategies-vertical-spreads-earnings-adjustments-05-18-2020 https://tastytrade.thinkific.com/?utm_campaign=learn_center https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/learn
  • JS
    John S.
    13 August 2020 @ 00:33
    Long Bitcoin Short the Banks! It’s DeFi farming baby!
  • JD
    Jimmy D.
    12 August 2020 @ 22:16
    I started cracking up laughing when Tyler said longing bitcoin and shorting banks is the easiest play in the world. Not afraid to make a call. Respect
  • PE
    Paul E.
    12 August 2020 @ 22:09
    I enjoyed this, including the ocean view behind Tyler.
  • MT
    Mark T.
    12 August 2020 @ 19:08
    Joe Rogan? Is he a barometer now?
  • CM
    Cory M.
    12 August 2020 @ 18:54
    I like Tyler and am grateful that Ash pins down his short term trading bias. He's Macro but in a waffling way. I enjoy him (and his contrarian bullish bias at present), but I have been learning more from those who take a strong long term stance.
  • AR
    Andrew R.
    12 August 2020 @ 18:40
    Bring the beard back!
  • DM
    Don M.
    12 August 2020 @ 17:51
    Disappointed. I always look for RV to bring me new ways of thinking of things or at least new support for an idea. What did we hear here? Don't fight the fed Gold should do well Bond rotation Come on! I could get that off of Robinhood twitter.
    • DM
      Don M.
      12 August 2020 @ 17:56
      One more thing, this whole 'bond rotation' thing smacks of 'money on the sideline' If I decide to rotate from bonds to stocks, first I have to sell my bond to raise cash, rotating out of bonds. But the person who took their cash and bought my bond is rotating into bonds. Likewise, when I use my cash to complete the rotation into stocks by buying them, someone else is selling to me and rotating out of stocks. Just far too much simplistic "old wallstreet' jargon
  • Cd
    Christiano d.
    12 August 2020 @ 05:27
    Not that I didn't like the talk, but I just stopped by to hear what had happened during the day.
    • hw
      harry w.
      12 August 2020 @ 08:47
      Thank you for this beneficial comment
    • TN
      Tyler N. | Real Vision
      12 August 2020 @ 15:48
      Yeah apologize Christiano...I should've concentrated on the retail freakout in the market yesterday more. Yesterday felt like more of a rotation out of outperformers into under-performers. Most of the sectors in free fall like gold or silver had RSI's around 80 and were up massively. It's no surprise you got fast money chasing it...
  • CA
    Cyrus A.
    12 August 2020 @ 09:48
    I am not sure about this bullish case. The stock market may go up in price terms but it is falling in terms of true $ value. Is that really bullish? If you eliminate the $ from the equation and measure the stock market against another asset class in terms of purchasing power (gold, agricultural products, industrial metals, commodities), the stock market is falling. In other words, if the market is measured in a currency that has exploded in supply, i.e. the $, then of course the price will go up, but if it is measured with real money, the value is actually falling. My point is are we not using the wrong measurements to calculate real returns which in turn undermines a bullish case for stocks?
    • TN
      Tyler N. | Real Vision
      12 August 2020 @ 15:45
      Yeah I was kinda making that argument. Stocks are a better alternative to bonds tho in that world, no? I mentioned stores of value as a way to play it...Hey- you never know...NEM might not be the only mining stock in the SPX 500 in a couple years!
  • PU
    Peter U.
    12 August 2020 @ 11:20
    Tyler sounds like a young guy. Very inexperience investor and lacks basic understanding of macro understanding vis-a-vis interest rates. Contrast Tyler's comments to someone like Lacy Hunt or John Hussman.
    • PU
      Peter U.
      12 August 2020 @ 11:21
      inexperienced
    • TN
      Tyler N. | Real Vision
      12 August 2020 @ 15:42
      Hussman has been wrong for a decade and still looks at valuation rather than market structure, demographics & actual flows of money....Lacy- well he's a legend and is pretty much right about everything
  • PM
    Parth M.
    12 August 2020 @ 13:32
    Question to Tyler, do you think there is a chance for smallcap gold and silver miners re rating if this bull run improves the profit margins or these miners will always be a pure speculation play?
    • TN
      Tyler N. | Real Vision
      12 August 2020 @ 15:40
      100%
  • ES
    Edward S.
    12 August 2020 @ 15:03
    Tyler needs to be a weekly guest. Ash, that was a fantastic interview. I might suggest a roundtable with Tyler and Lacy Hunt discussing inflation and rates. It would bring together two great minds at different ends of the demographic spectrum.
    • TN
      Tyler N. | Real Vision
      12 August 2020 @ 15:39
      Lol Lacy Hunt would destroy me but I appreciate that Ed
  • sg
    scott g.
    12 August 2020 @ 15:26
    this chipped away at my NT bear outlook in a big way....or maybe its given me better perspective on trading and investing time frames. ..Interesting that M.Mayo is getting bullish on the banks but you need a 2-3 yr outlook (but now they have buy pts??) . great bread and butter interview thanks.
    • sg
      scott g.
      12 August 2020 @ 15:28
      bread and butter ...meaning there is elegance in simplicity
  • GH
    Galen H.
    12 August 2020 @ 14:33
    2nd chart comment - "of course stocks and bonds can both fall massively, but that would be a disaster". YES it would! LOL. On one hand disaster, on the other, you can buy a stock with the same DY as a corp bond. Not ideal. 3rd chart...Am I reading the chart correct? - the market went through GDP for a few months and then the bottom fell out. Not sure if I want to play in that little sliver above the blue line. Enjoyed the interview though.
  • CM
    Christopher M.
    12 August 2020 @ 01:14
    I would have liked them to cover what they think happened today in more detail. Gold, bitcoin, and every major stock index down, dollar flat, nothing much on bond prices but real yields continued the weeklong trend of less negative. Value indices were up slightly despite FANG+ and major indices down. Mid-day, it looked like a rally in all the non-tech stocks and then by market close everything crashed. Where the hell did all the money go? A big cash withdrawal? Notably the Vix spiked for the first time in a long time. You could have made 5% today just by holding a vix ETF such as VXX. Why? What does it mean that everything fled from safe havens into value stocks temporarily only to leave the market entirely while volatility spiked for the first time in a while?
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      12 August 2020 @ 02:35
      Most Robinhooder's did the panic sell move today...let's see what they chase tomorrow. Of course some of the late sellers got their A$$ handed to them ...they will be stymied and confused... it's not suppose to work like this.... Trees grow through the clouds ... RIGHT???
    • CM
      Christopher M.
      12 August 2020 @ 03:15
      Patrick, the VIX is calculated from options rather than stocks. It was up 8.59% today. Do you really think it's realistic that Robinhooders panic selling would be able to drive the VIX up 8.59% out of nowhere? What proportion of options contracts even trade on Robinhood and who panic sells by buying options?
    • PS
      Paul S.
      12 August 2020 @ 03:52
      > Where the hell did all the money go? A big cash withdrawal? I would be extremely interested in hearing RV's take on this too.
    • DR
      Danilo R.
      12 August 2020 @ 05:17
      Here is my mini market recap. Smart money has been out of QQQ which has increase volume on down days. There has been buying on beaten debt laden cyclical stocks. There was a major shake out on the dollar bounce, gold , silver and BTC had great moves because of declining dollar. Commercial banks don’t make money on lending and have the tendency to manipulate commodity future markets. The hoodies got some margin calls. The bond market tends to have a technical bounce when it’s historic low yields. Professional traders took profits on gold and silver and left the retailers holding their FOMO bag. It’s summer so the market has the tendency to act up. The reported CPI was not signaling any form of inflation. Probably prudent to be like the maligned Buffet or Druckenmiller and keep a lot of dry powder for 2021, I anticipate September and the election to be brutally volatile.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      12 August 2020 @ 06:18
      You make a good point, this is supposed to be a market update. Did anyone else noticed the relatively big move lower suggesting interest rates higher in Eurodollars futures? Check the contracts going out to 2023. A one day move so early days to attach a big significance but something to watch.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      12 August 2020 @ 06:34
      Contd....... Ref Eurodollars futures look at the contracts 2 years out in nominal terms the move down looks small however in relative terms its big.
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      12 August 2020 @ 13:38
      Reply to Chris ... I'm talking about the Robinhooder's long the equity not options
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    12 August 2020 @ 09:53
    Millenial. AOC and the concept of greater socialism to me, is absurd. Neither can articulate an implementation that is feasible.
    • JK
      John K.
      12 August 2020 @ 13:31
      Lol if Europe can manage it so can we. Lol Germany bond market was almost nonexistent up until rona.?” The hedge funds found a way. The pension funds found a way. There are ways to do it besides the way we’re currently doing it lol
  • JS
    Jon S.
    12 August 2020 @ 06:23
    The background ocean was pretty amazing one, but please keep neutral next time. I am sure Raoul could make a video with even better view, but it is better to keep it indoors, if I am allow to say this.
    • hw
      harry w.
      12 August 2020 @ 08:46
      Jesus H Christ
    • KA
      Kat A.
      12 August 2020 @ 13:11
      Lockdown fever appears to be infectious.
  • PU
    Peter U.
    12 August 2020 @ 11:33
    Ash handled this well but went way to easy on him. No second order or third order follow up questions regarding the inconsistency of his ideas. Inflation but disinflation, US is more like China that we realize . . . .
  • PU
    Peter U.
    12 August 2020 @ 11:26
    very bullish and then "we are going to see a blowoff top" but we are going to get a rotation into equities, all in the same paragraph. Nothing consistent / logical thought process.
  • PU
    Peter U.
    12 August 2020 @ 11:22
    "Biggest risk to the upside" . . . . at all time highs!
  • DS
    Dan S.
    12 August 2020 @ 11:18
    Great show and fascinating insight - thanks guys
  • MC
    Michael C.
    11 August 2020 @ 23:49
    Wow, just wow...so much I disagree with. Paid to own stocks based on yield? What about principal protection? Stock/bond chart just confirms rate repression, not equity outperformance. There are too many measures of valuation to summarily dismiss one of them. Shiller CAPE, SP500 Price/sales, Valueline 3-5 year median price potential. Especially when a handful of stocks are driving the indices...see Rob Arnott/Mike Green video None are timing tools but something untoward happens, the end result is always the same. Fed has your back? All this liquidity hasn't resulted in M2 velocity so the Fed keeps pouring lighter fluid on the economy. Demographics cuts several ways...the Boomers have declining need to consume except health care perhaps. And with CV19, they don't want to travel or dine out...less discretionary consumption. So I can't see the consumer driven economy (70%) coming back in any large way. With 10% of them controlling 80% of the equities (or something like that), who's buying for this "big rally"? I do agree with precious metals/PM miners. That's where the Fed's unintended consequences are showing up. So when equities rally to some degree and bonds/gold sell off, buy the latter...lol. Rates can never go up, we saw the result in Oct 2018. We will print our way out of this situation. So inflation measures will be jacked around and PM's will rally. Instead of the stock/bond chart, a gold/stock chart would have been more insightful esp looking at LT MA's. Gold is nowhere near its inflation adjusted 2011 high. And despite what has occurred in the last 6 months, it feels like people still hate precious metals which is great for investment. Every asset has its time in the sun. Pension funds must want to slash their wrists...CALPERS wanted to get to 7% returns and were ready to take on leverage until the PM got canned. So the funds are between a rock and a hard spot. Cut expectations or take on more risk IMO. Private equity...when I saw someone getting ready to offer a PE ETF, I wanted to shout "Danger! Danger! Will Robinson!" When they start a new ETF, time to run the other way. I believe Ed Harrison and Ral are correct, the next act is coming up, late August into October. The papering over money is gone. The tide will go out and then we'll see. "It's not a free market any more"...yup, the signals are then corrupted by all the Fed/Congressional/Executive branch game playing. Bitcoin? I think it has played out for awhile...everyone knew about the halving. Ethereum and/or precious metals look more enticing. (Ral threw Ethereum as a passing Twitter comment a few weeks ago; it was profitable...thanks Ral!) Re: housing/cars...people buy payments. With low rates and some income, these sectors will do ok...rates won't go up but I wonder how they'll qualify although I'm hearing 84 month car financing....SMH. Other than that, I liked the play, Mrs Lincoln.
    • TN
      Tyler N. | Real Vision
      12 August 2020 @ 00:09
      What is the price of equity when debt is free?
    • JA
      Jonathan A.
      12 August 2020 @ 00:27
      Tyler, it’s whatever the price of a downside fat tail on equity is relative to a 0-3% coupon on debt and a claim in bankruptcy.
    • GM
      Guillermo M.
      12 August 2020 @ 01:40
      This reply is actually for Tyler; what is the price of EVERYTHING is the debt is free? If it is true that the price of fiat money is the interest rate, and that price is zero, then fiat money is worth nothing. Nice path towards inflation... This is not a critic; it may perfectly happen what you foresee; these are weird times I am just trying to establish a logic chain of reasoning. Your reply will be really appreciated.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      12 August 2020 @ 02:40
      What is the price of equity when debt is free? Ask a Venezuelan. Go look at their chart for real rates. -85% in 2017 as one example. And equity prices soared. So did inflation. Tyler may be right on equities but wrong on the "real" value of equities. With all this money printing, this is one of my biggest concerns. Yet, follow Lacy Hunt and he makes a strong argument for low inflation due to debt levels. Recommend listening to this week's interview on Grant William's podcast. Also, on bond buying, it is not just boomers (say this as a boomer). Many institutions are required to buy bonds to balance duration of assets and liabilities. As a boomer, believe most of us are forced into market hoping you are right that the old politicians will support prices.
    • MC
      Michael C.
      12 August 2020 @ 05:35
      For Tyler Ask the Japanese and the Europeans about zero/negative rates and their impact on equity pricing. Shouldn't equity prices go to infinity as rates approach zero or negative in real terms? Cue Outer Limits theme.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      12 August 2020 @ 06:27
      Debt is free? Whilst its only a one day move, but did you notice the relatively large down move, indicative of interest rates going higher in Eurodollar futures yesterday? Something to watch carefully.
    • DS
      David S.
      12 August 2020 @ 06:54
      Mr. Neville - Interest may be free, but debt, at least corporate and private, must be repaid with cash flow. DLS
    • LB
      Lorenzo B.
      12 August 2020 @ 10:57
      Negative EBITDAs do not turn positive even if debt is free
  • SB
    Samuel B.
    12 August 2020 @ 03:09
    I really hate it when guests make predictions like this. it’s total garbage. No one knows.
    • CJ
      Christopher J.
      12 August 2020 @ 10:48
      He's giving his investing framework - personally find very useful.
  • BE
    Brent E.
    12 August 2020 @ 01:14
    The 3 richest Americans have more wealth than the bottom 160 million Americans. This is a recipe for disaster.
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      12 August 2020 @ 02:27
      Actually it makes it kind of easy to square up the inequity......only need to steal from 3 people.
    • MD
      Mike D.
      12 August 2020 @ 10:23
      How 3 got hands into and out of 160,000,000 pockets...... somewhat more complicated...... and combustible......
  • CT
    Chris T.
    12 August 2020 @ 07:21
    More of this please! Charts to provide context and views.
  • MJ
    Marc J.
    12 August 2020 @ 06:22
    Always good to hear alternative views. Keep them coming please.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    12 August 2020 @ 01:31
    Can somone please type the name he mentiones around minute 09:00 (left) when he refers to from wealth qccumulation to wealth distribution. Many thanks.
    • MH
      MARK H.
      12 August 2020 @ 02:06
      Kiril Sokoloff
    • JS
      Jon S.
      12 August 2020 @ 06:22
      Thank you so much! My non-native ear could not catch it. Thank you for typing it.
  • MH
    Muddshir H.
    12 August 2020 @ 04:41
    Ed please bring back tony greer
  • OA
    Oliver A.
    12 August 2020 @ 01:42
    Loved this conversation, I have a suspicion Tyler shotgunned a beer right before they rolled, but if anything, it helped lubricate the conversation. Also, shout out to Ash's mom for reading the comments in the RV daily briefing!
    • TN
      Tyler N. | Real Vision
      12 August 2020 @ 04:19
      Next time I promise to shotgun a beer for you Oliver
  • GK
    Gautam K.
    12 August 2020 @ 04:05
    Tyler is clueless!
  • GB
    Griffin B.
    11 August 2020 @ 23:48
    Great interview! Can someone help walk me through Tyler's thought process regarding the gold and silver sell-off? In what sense are yields becoming less negative, doesn't he imply that inflation is present in his previous chart where he discusses the breakeven rate? Thanks.
    • TN
      Tyler N. | Real Vision
      12 August 2020 @ 00:10
      I mean real yields were becoming less negative because of the ten year treasury yield sell off today from the large weekly issuance...
    • GB
      Griffin B.
      12 August 2020 @ 03:49
      Thanks for the response. One of the best RVDBs yet imo 🤙🏻🔥
  • NR
    Nicholas R.
    12 August 2020 @ 03:17
    Tyler was brilliant! Outstanding conversation.
  • SE
    Seth E.
    12 August 2020 @ 00:27
    Hey Tyler, I’m long gold mines myself. Do you have any favorites? I feel the mines overreacted to the drop in spot prices today. I’m going in for more if gold holds $1920.
    • TN
      Tyler N. | Real Vision
      12 August 2020 @ 01:09
      THM, MUX, LTRNF, ORLFF, FNV!
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      12 August 2020 @ 02:37
      Tyler you missed EQX... don't ever bet against Ross Beaty.
    • NW
      Nathan W.
      12 August 2020 @ 03:07
      THM has seemed almost inverse of some of the others over the past couple of weeks. Guess it just needed to let some of the helium out of the balloon from previous month...
  • RC
    Reese C.
    12 August 2020 @ 02:51
    Tyler has a very interesting perspective.
  • IN
    I N.
    12 August 2020 @ 02:50
    Tyler is Peter Thiel's gospel preacher. Eric Weistein's "The Portal" first (almost 3 hour) interview of Thiel himself will give you the expanded versions, as well as Zero To One. I am on the "love it" side.
  • JA
    Jordan A.
    12 August 2020 @ 02:41
    Great interview. Now bring on Jeff Snider ti tell us all why M2 doesn't matter.
  • WB
    William B.
    12 August 2020 @ 02:15
    Total genius on both sides. NYC meets Austin!!!!
  • CD
    Carl D.
    12 August 2020 @ 01:39
    If sven henrich thought through the implications of his observations, he'd arrive at tyler's conclusions.
  • cg
    charles g.
    11 August 2020 @ 23:20
    Why is this guy so comfortable with the government taking over the markets. Has he heard of Japan? The bond market hardly trades there and the Nikkei topped in 1989 and hasn't come close since.
    • DG
      Dave G.
      11 August 2020 @ 23:39
      Welcome to the millennial mindset.
    • YB
      Yair B.
      11 August 2020 @ 23:54
      I don't think he is comfortable. He is just reading the map and trading according to it.
    • TN
      Tyler N. | Real Vision
      11 August 2020 @ 23:59
      I’m not comfortable- it’s scary!
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      12 August 2020 @ 01:20
      Maybe he's just playing the hand his were dealt.
  • OM
    Owen M.
    11 August 2020 @ 23:50
    Curious...is Roger still doing RVDB?
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      12 August 2020 @ 01:11
      Yep. I'll be sitting down with him next week.
  • DS
    David S.
    12 August 2020 @ 01:03
    Do not worry Mr. Neville time will tell. It takes a long time for folks, especially me, to realize there is no NPV filter in the market anymore. I should have listened to Mr. Green earlier. I was happy to get out of gold and silver at the right time. Hopefully, I will get back into gold and silver at the right time. Just money flows. No long-term bets. I did not pull the plug on GDX because of the profit potential. Next time I will and wait. I like a little gold in the ground. I will buy more when GDX is lower. COVID investing. DLS
  • JD
    Jimmy D.
    12 August 2020 @ 00:52
    Where Ed at
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    12 August 2020 @ 00:22
    Wait what stocks can go down?
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      12 August 2020 @ 00:31
      Or is it stonks
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    12 August 2020 @ 00:30
    Tyler I really like the way you talk about money flows. Brilliant interview, thank you.
  • JA
    Jonathan A.
    12 August 2020 @ 00:22
    Thanks for the chat Tyler, and thanks for “Weimar US”! You’ll definitely be recognized as first to call it. What’s supporting the presumption of inflation though? I know M2 is sky high, but velocity of the money supply is plummeting. While I get the boiling front analogy, data indicate it’s more like the frog has jumped into the ice age.
    • JA
      Jonathan A.
      12 August 2020 @ 00:25
      Oops, meant “boiling frog analogy”
  • OM
    Owen M.
    12 August 2020 @ 00:21
    Very much enjoyed Tyler's take. Nice work. Bring him back.
  • DT
    David T.
    11 August 2020 @ 23:05
    Did we just listen to a Robinhood investor? :)
    • TN
      Tyler N. | Real Vision
      12 August 2020 @ 00:18
      Lol fair- I spent 5 years shorting vol at one of the largest funds in the country tho...
  • LF
    Liam F.
    11 August 2020 @ 23:14
    Such BS on tech commentary. 5 guys + AWS = $1B valuation. C'mon! Did you ever work in tech? Let me count the ways...So much hype and BSD. Huge failure rates. Precious few become $1B enterprises. Even fewer do it with a team of 5. Way better IMO to bet on small-yet-established business models + real revenue streams than the next Twitter, FB, YouTube startups. Not to say that there isn't amazing and revolutionary stuff happening in tech. Good luck picking the winners from the infants. Mostly it's luck.
    • DT
      David T.
      11 August 2020 @ 23:19
      So right. There simply aren't enough good tech people for all those companies to develop everything cutting edge.
    • TN
      Tyler N. | Real Vision
      12 August 2020 @ 00:16
      Kinda agree with this. I was exaggerating to get the point home that there are better business models than stuff that mirrors GDP growth and to invest in things that will have real growth rates in a negative real yield world...some are land mines and hard to pick but I’d rather take my shots than sit in a large cap bank stock....
  • KD
    Kenneth D.
    11 August 2020 @ 23:15
    Where was this guy in March/April?
    • TN
      Tyler N. | Real Vision
      12 August 2020 @ 00:13
      I was long gold and private companies that do something original...not commoditized businesses catering to an aging population
  • TB
    Tobin B.
    11 August 2020 @ 23:22
    Damn straight Tyler! Boomers are in control right now, and they're not going to let things go down (at least on paper)
    • TN
      Tyler N. | Real Vision
      12 August 2020 @ 00:11
      Haha I agree with you!
  • PB
    Paul B.
    11 August 2020 @ 22:49
    We are and have been in the Mania phase....since April......PE's at 25 with a flat GDP. Seems very high risk to me
    • TN
      Tyler N. | Real Vision
      11 August 2020 @ 23:00
      What is the price of equity when debt is free?
    • RD
      Riki D.
      12 August 2020 @ 00:05
      You can't ignore PE's when they are historically high. But there's probably good reason to calibrate them against previous PE highs and the cost of capital. I think its fair to say that when PE's are high and capital cost is high, this is a very risky environment. When PEs are high and capital cost is low then this doesn't carry the same risk. That said, it depends on what exactly is being done with the capital. It becomes trickier when the economic landscape and consumer spend outlook is poor. Never quite as easy as looking at a single metric.
  • AC
    Adam C.
    12 August 2020 @ 00:02
    Thanks, Tyler. Good stuff. Do you think people should be expecting a skew for the blow-off top in equities or more towards SOV assets, like gold miners and Bitcoin?
  • MB
    Mary B.
    11 August 2020 @ 23:53
    Money printing is the root cause of the mania. I liked Tyler's thinking. With so much money printing, it will flow somewhere. Is it not just more asset inflation?
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    11 August 2020 @ 23:44
    At least Tyler is not saying buy stocks because the economy is great.
  • MD
    Matt D.
    11 August 2020 @ 23:41
    Interesting as usual - thanks Ash and Tyler. Love the background - location. ! I'm still trying to get a feel for your overall way of looking at things Tyler, but like the fact you are a trader where neutrality is often best.
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    11 August 2020 @ 23:32
    Great interview! Nothing like living in a constant state of having two opposing thoughts battling it out in my investment head. Position for sell off, position for blow off top. RV has taught me how to do both!
  • PM
    Phil M.
    11 August 2020 @ 23:25
    Great job guys, love seeing different people and povs garnered for these daily briefings
  • JH
    Jeff H.
    11 August 2020 @ 22:32
    we're not in the mania phase yet? Really.
    • JL
      Jake L.
      11 August 2020 @ 22:39
      Exactly my thoughts.
    • LF
      Liam F.
      11 August 2020 @ 23:16
      +100
  • MS
    Matthew S.
    11 August 2020 @ 23:12
    meh...
  • RN
    Richard N.
    11 August 2020 @ 23:06
    How do you look at something like a MicroStrategy (MSTR), do you think that the $250 million buy makes them a way to invest in BTC through publically traded equities? How do you think this move and the trend couple with the OCCs recent decision to allow banks to hold crypto?
  • DS
    David S.
    11 August 2020 @ 23:06
    We are living in COVID TIMES - no former market charts counts. Volatility will be way up because that is the main way traders like Chase can make any money. I do not think it is a conspiracy, just massive trading firms have a common strategy. Mr. Parrilla also believes in equities but uses options to protect positions from downside volatility. Mr. Berg sees the stock market acting like a commodity market - makes sense. The high P/E market may bail out some pension funds. Gold miners should make a lot of money ever after the blow-off top in gold. Money, money everywhere, but where to invest? Not in buy and hold! It is a strange world. DLS
  • RL
    Ron L.
    11 August 2020 @ 22:48
    One of the more interesting episodes, thoroughly enjoyed it! Thanks gents
  • Md
    Matthew d.
    11 August 2020 @ 22:38
    A hedge fund that goes long Bitcoin, short the banks? Shut up and take my money!