I really like Tyler’s perspective. I’ve been using a strategy of long gold miners and short IWM, and the puts have been eating all my gains and then some. Perhaps in the next blow-off top, I’ll exit the rest of my puts and focus more purely on “stores of value” as he calls it. My “bear market roadmap” just isn’t working, and I’m beginning to think he’s right that you don’t want to be short equities until yields rise in JNK and LQD.

Long Bitcoin Short the Banks! It’s DeFi farming baby!

I started cracking up laughing when Tyler said longing bitcoin and shorting banks is the easiest play in the world. Not afraid to make a call. Respect

I enjoyed this, including the ocean view behind Tyler.

Joe Rogan? Is he a barometer now?

I like Tyler and am grateful that Ash pins down his short term trading bias. He's Macro but in a waffling way. I enjoy him (and his contrarian bullish bias at present), but I have been learning more from those who take a strong long term stance.

Bring the beard back!

Disappointed. I always look for RV to bring me new ways of thinking of things or at least new support for an idea. What did we hear here? Don't fight the fed Gold should do well Bond rotation Come on! I could get that off of Robinhood twitter.

Not that I didn't like the talk, but I just stopped by to hear what had happened during the day.

I am not sure about this bullish case. The stock market may go up in price terms but it is falling in terms of true $ value. Is that really bullish? If you eliminate the $ from the equation and measure the stock market against another asset class in terms of purchasing power (gold, agricultural products, industrial metals, commodities), the stock market is falling. In other words, if the market is measured in a currency that has exploded in supply, i.e. the $, then of course the price will go up, but if it is measured with real money, the value is actually falling. My point is are we not using the wrong measurements to calculate real returns which in turn undermines a bullish case for stocks?

Tyler sounds like a young guy. Very inexperience investor and lacks basic understanding of macro understanding vis-a-vis interest rates. Contrast Tyler's comments to someone like Lacy Hunt or John Hussman.

Question to Tyler, do you think there is a chance for smallcap gold and silver miners re rating if this bull run improves the profit margins or these miners will always be a pure speculation play?

Tyler needs to be a weekly guest. Ash, that was a fantastic interview. I might suggest a roundtable with Tyler and Lacy Hunt discussing inflation and rates. It would bring together two great minds at different ends of the demographic spectrum.

this chipped away at my NT bear outlook in a big way....or maybe its given me better perspective on trading and investing time frames. ..Interesting that M.Mayo is getting bullish on the banks but you need a 2-3 yr outlook (but now they have buy pts??) . great bread and butter interview thanks.

2nd chart comment - "of course stocks and bonds can both fall massively, but that would be a disaster". YES it would! LOL. On one hand disaster, on the other, you can buy a stock with the same DY as a corp bond. Not ideal. 3rd chart...Am I reading the chart correct? - the market went through GDP for a few months and then the bottom fell out. Not sure if I want to play in that little sliver above the blue line. Enjoyed the interview though.

I would have liked them to cover what they think happened today in more detail. Gold, bitcoin, and every major stock index down, dollar flat, nothing much on bond prices but real yields continued the weeklong trend of less negative. Value indices were up slightly despite FANG+ and major indices down. Mid-day, it looked like a rally in all the non-tech stocks and then by market close everything crashed. Where the hell did all the money go? A big cash withdrawal? Notably the Vix spiked for the first time in a long time. You could have made 5% today just by holding a vix ETF such as VXX. Why? What does it mean that everything fled from safe havens into value stocks temporarily only to leave the market entirely while volatility spiked for the first time in a while?

Millenial. AOC and the concept of greater socialism to me, is absurd. Neither can articulate an implementation that is feasible.

The background ocean was pretty amazing one, but please keep neutral next time. I am sure Raoul could make a video with even better view, but it is better to keep it indoors, if I am allow to say this.

Ash handled this well but went way to easy on him. No second order or third order follow up questions regarding the inconsistency of his ideas. Inflation but disinflation, US is more like China that we realize . . . .

very bullish and then "we are going to see a blowoff top" but we are going to get a rotation into equities, all in the same paragraph. Nothing consistent / logical thought process.

"Biggest risk to the upside" . . . . at all time highs!

Great show and fascinating insight - thanks guys

Wow, just wow...so much I disagree with. Paid to own stocks based on yield? What about principal protection? Stock/bond chart just confirms rate repression, not equity outperformance. There are too many measures of valuation to summarily dismiss one of them. Shiller CAPE, SP500 Price/sales, Valueline 3-5 year median price potential. Especially when a handful of stocks are driving the indices...see Rob Arnott/Mike Green video None are timing tools but something untoward happens, the end result is always the same. Fed has your back? All this liquidity hasn't resulted in M2 velocity so the Fed keeps pouring lighter fluid on the economy. Demographics cuts several ways...the Boomers have declining need to consume except health care perhaps. And with CV19, they don't want to travel or dine out...less discretionary consumption. So I can't see the consumer driven economy (70%) coming back in any large way. With 10% of them controlling 80% of the equities (or something like that), who's buying for this "big rally"? I do agree with precious metals/PM miners. That's where the Fed's unintended consequences are showing up. So when equities rally to some degree and bonds/gold sell off, buy the latter...lol. Rates can never go up, we saw the result in Oct 2018. We will print our way out of this situation. So inflation measures will be jacked around and PM's will rally. Instead of the stock/bond chart, a gold/stock chart would have been more insightful esp looking at LT MA's. Gold is nowhere near its inflation adjusted 2011 high. And despite what has occurred in the last 6 months, it feels like people still hate precious metals which is great for investment. Every asset has its time in the sun. Pension funds must want to slash their wrists...CALPERS wanted to get to 7% returns and were ready to take on leverage until the PM got canned. So the funds are between a rock and a hard spot. Cut expectations or take on more risk IMO. Private equity...when I saw someone getting ready to offer a PE ETF, I wanted to shout "Danger! Danger! Will Robinson!" When they start a new ETF, time to run the other way. I believe Ed Harrison and Ral are correct, the next act is coming up, late August into October. The papering over money is gone. The tide will go out and then we'll see. "It's not a free market any more"...yup, the signals are then corrupted by all the Fed/Congressional/Executive branch game playing. Bitcoin? I think it has played out for awhile...everyone knew about the halving. Ethereum and/or precious metals look more enticing. (Ral threw Ethereum as a passing Twitter comment a few weeks ago; it was profitable...thanks Ral!) Re: housing/cars...people buy payments. With low rates and some income, these sectors will do ok...rates won't go up but I wonder how they'll qualify although I'm hearing 84 month car financing....SMH. Other than that, I liked the play, Mrs Lincoln.

I really hate it when guests make predictions like this. it’s total garbage. No one knows.

The 3 richest Americans have more wealth than the bottom 160 million Americans. This is a recipe for disaster.

More of this please! Charts to provide context and views.

Always good to hear alternative views. Keep them coming please.

Can somone please type the name he mentiones around minute 09:00 (left) when he refers to from wealth qccumulation to wealth distribution. Many thanks.

Ed please bring back tony greer

Loved this conversation, I have a suspicion Tyler shotgunned a beer right before they rolled, but if anything, it helped lubricate the conversation. Also, shout out to Ash's mom for reading the comments in the RV daily briefing!

Tyler is clueless!

Great interview! Can someone help walk me through Tyler's thought process regarding the gold and silver sell-off? In what sense are yields becoming less negative, doesn't he imply that inflation is present in his previous chart where he discusses the breakeven rate? Thanks.

Tyler was brilliant! Outstanding conversation.

Hey Tyler, I’m long gold mines myself. Do you have any favorites? I feel the mines overreacted to the drop in spot prices today. I’m going in for more if gold holds $1920.

Tyler has a very interesting perspective.

Tyler is Peter Thiel's gospel preacher. Eric Weistein's "The Portal" first (almost 3 hour) interview of Thiel himself will give you the expanded versions, as well as Zero To One. I am on the "love it" side.

Great interview. Now bring on Jeff Snider ti tell us all why M2 doesn't matter.

Total genius on both sides. NYC meets Austin!!!!

If sven henrich thought through the implications of his observations, he'd arrive at tyler's conclusions.

Why is this guy so comfortable with the government taking over the markets. Has he heard of Japan? The bond market hardly trades there and the Nikkei topped in 1989 and hasn't come close since.

Curious...is Roger still doing RVDB?

Do not worry Mr. Neville time will tell. It takes a long time for folks, especially me, to realize there is no NPV filter in the market anymore. I should have listened to Mr. Green earlier. I was happy to get out of gold and silver at the right time. Hopefully, I will get back into gold and silver at the right time. Just money flows. No long-term bets. I did not pull the plug on GDX because of the profit potential. Next time I will and wait. I like a little gold in the ground. I will buy more when GDX is lower. COVID investing. DLS

Where Ed at

Wait what stocks can go down?

Tyler I really like the way you talk about money flows. Brilliant interview, thank you.

Thanks for the chat Tyler, and thanks for “Weimar US”! You’ll definitely be recognized as first to call it. What’s supporting the presumption of inflation though? I know M2 is sky high, but velocity of the money supply is plummeting. While I get the boiling front analogy, data indicate it’s more like the frog has jumped into the ice age.

Very much enjoyed Tyler's take. Nice work. Bring him back.

Did we just listen to a Robinhood investor? :)

Such BS on tech commentary. 5 guys + AWS = $1B valuation. C'mon! Did you ever work in tech? Let me count the ways...So much hype and BSD. Huge failure rates. Precious few become $1B enterprises. Even fewer do it with a team of 5. Way better IMO to bet on small-yet-established business models + real revenue streams than the next Twitter, FB, YouTube startups. Not to say that there isn't amazing and revolutionary stuff happening in tech. Good luck picking the winners from the infants. Mostly it's luck.

Where was this guy in March/April?

Damn straight Tyler! Boomers are in control right now, and they're not going to let things go down (at least on paper)

We are and have been in the Mania phase....since April......PE's at 25 with a flat GDP. Seems very high risk to me

Thanks, Tyler. Good stuff. Do you think people should be expecting a skew for the blow-off top in equities or more towards SOV assets, like gold miners and Bitcoin?

Money printing is the root cause of the mania. I liked Tyler's thinking. With so much money printing, it will flow somewhere. Is it not just more asset inflation?

At least Tyler is not saying buy stocks because the economy is great.

Interesting as usual - thanks Ash and Tyler. Love the background - location. ! I'm still trying to get a feel for your overall way of looking at things Tyler, but like the fact you are a trader where neutrality is often best.

Great interview! Nothing like living in a constant state of having two opposing thoughts battling it out in my investment head. Position for sell off, position for blow off top. RV has taught me how to do both!

Great job guys, love seeing different people and povs garnered for these daily briefings

we're not in the mania phase yet? Really.

meh...

How do you look at something like a MicroStrategy (MSTR), do you think that the $250 million buy makes them a way to invest in BTC through publically traded equities? How do you think this move and the trend couple with the OCCs recent decision to allow banks to hold crypto?

We are living in COVID TIMES - no former market charts counts. Volatility will be way up because that is the main way traders like Chase can make any money. I do not think it is a conspiracy, just massive trading firms have a common strategy. Mr. Parrilla also believes in equities but uses options to protect positions from downside volatility. Mr. Berg sees the stock market acting like a commodity market - makes sense. The high P/E market may bail out some pension funds. Gold miners should make a lot of money ever after the blow-off top in gold. Money, money everywhere, but where to invest? Not in buy and hold! It is a strange world. DLS

One of the more interesting episodes, thoroughly enjoyed it! Thanks gents

A hedge fund that goes long Bitcoin, short the banks? Shut up and take my money!