Daily Briefing – August 18, 2020

Published on
August 18th, 2020
Duration
26 minutes


Daily Briefing – August 18, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Peter Cooper, Ash Bennington, and Tony Greer

Published on: August 18th, 2020 • Duration: 26 minutes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator Newsletter, to discuss the S&P 500 breaking record highs and the wild inflation trade. Tony considers where inflation is cropping up and how dollar weakness is connected to a dovish Fed. He also talks about the biggest market movers—bitcoin, FANG stocks, precious metals, and miners—and where the market may be headed should low interest rates persist. Ash and Tony explore what is happening in the housing market and what is influencing its activity. They top off their conversation by looking at the risks of momentum strategies to novice investors, ESG strategies catching fire, and Tony's approach to position sizing. In the intro, Peter Cooper discusses the kick-off of the Democratic National Convention and the latest on CalPERS.

Comments

Transcript

  • MF
    M F.
    19 August 2020 @ 02:04
    Real Vision....as a longstanding member who wants nothing but the best for your product, please have Tony join the Daily Brief every day or at least every week. Not only is he excellent, but this is what the "Daily Briefing" should be about..namely what happened that day specifically...Although Ash and the DB team are excellent and insightful, the DB has turned in the last several months, to be more often a DB that is a "thought piece" where longer-term aspects of COVID, dollar debasement, Central Bank printing is just rehashed in different ways every day. Yes, COVID matters, and printing matters, but those are longer-term issues. Respectfully, the DB should be about what was moving that day, (not just in price but relative to its normal volatility) and WHY it is moving. Connecting the dots to what could be driving such moves on the day/week, with a large bottom-up aspect to understanding what could be driving the larger changes in flow/fundamentals/earnings for that day. This could be about specific areas things going on in equity index futures in the US/EU/EM/fx/bonds, commods or single stocks, but to live up to the name of being a DB...That is why I tune into the DB--it should be about the granular aspects of what happened that day/why...not broad thematics about COVID, CBs printing, European disunity, etc which can be done on under other RV titles, but not DB. I don't know if others feel this way, but daily insights/moves/why the moves are really what this DB should be about, IMHO. Thanks again for listening.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      19 August 2020 @ 04:28
      Seconded
    • AH
      Attila H.
      19 August 2020 @ 05:28
      Yep, well said.
    • JV
      Jonny V.
      19 August 2020 @ 05:39
      Yes fully agree, very well put!
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      24 August 2020 @ 20:47
      love the guidance....thank you.
  • GK
    Gautam K.
    19 August 2020 @ 05:37
    Greer is just brilliant!
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      24 August 2020 @ 20:45
      TOO KIND.
  • DM
    Don M.
    24 August 2020 @ 15:57
    Unfortunately Tony lets his politics show through too much for my taste.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    20 August 2020 @ 20:49
    Tony still can't see more than 4 months out ie "end of year." He is definitely charismatic and he's doing his best to answer the big picture questions, but not for me. I look to RV for a wider view.
  • MT
    Mark T.
    19 August 2020 @ 19:23
    Go on to any company's website, read their CSR/ESG reports, and tell me it's anything more than marketing fluff.
  • CL
    Christopher L.
    19 August 2020 @ 16:26
    were seeimg housing starts blow out expectations *looks at 10% mortgage delinquencies* lol
  • CL
    Christopher L.
    19 August 2020 @ 16:22
    the epitome of consensus thought. theres no inflation
  • EB
    Emmanuel B.
    19 August 2020 @ 15:59
    great, actionable content with high energy, thanks guys...you made my day
  • PS
    Patrick S.
    19 August 2020 @ 15:47
    THE GOAT!
  • MC
    Michael C.
    18 August 2020 @ 22:24
    Helene Meisler NYSE stocks at new highs today: 100 February: 345 Nothing like price to change sentiment.
    • MW
      Marcus W.
      19 August 2020 @ 12:21
      This comment deserves more likes. Gotta chase those green candles
    • MC
      Michael C.
      19 August 2020 @ 15:44
      Thanks Marcus Not trying to be snarky but when I heard the interview, I thought a couple things. 1) What everyone knows isn't worth knowing. Everyone just "knows" gold is going much higher, Buffett's confirming it, yada, yada, yada. Where's the edge in talking about what's already happened? 2) Ral and RV are trying to run a macro shop with a framework. I like thinking in 3 timeframes, monthly, weekly, daily. I don't want to turn my portfolio over on a daily basis. Respectfully, I think Mr. Greer is running a site that might be more to traders' liking...just saying.
  • RA
    Ralph A.
    19 August 2020 @ 12:12
    Nice to see Tony finally come around to my point of view on gold/inflation. I switched from bullish to bearish September 2018 and my portfolio is up 80% from there. I’m in asset management so I have to hold trades for 60 days, so I can only make longer term investments and can’t get in and out in a short term timeframe.
  • DG
    Dave G.
    19 August 2020 @ 11:20
    Seriously how many people can actually work from home? Like maybe what 5% Would like to know some real stats.
  • FL
    Fabrizio L.
    19 August 2020 @ 10:59
    good one!
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    19 August 2020 @ 09:25
    Pure class!
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    19 August 2020 @ 09:16
    This was superb! High energy and laser focused! Please keep it up!
  • DW
    Daniel W.
    19 August 2020 @ 08:20
    TG & Ash killed it!
  • EM
    Eivind M.
    19 August 2020 @ 07:43
    Good piece. There will be no inflation though. Pretty sure we're in for the squeeze of squeezes within the next couple of months.
  • VS
    Ville S.
    19 August 2020 @ 06:22
    High energy from both!
  • ES
    Edward S.
    19 August 2020 @ 06:13
    This is exactly the type of content I want to see on RVDB. Amazing summary Tony and the pace and amount of sectors & trades covered is great. Crammed in as much as possible into the time. 30 min brain dump from a technical trader. Doesn't matter if everyone agrees with every single view/trade. That's not the point. 10/10.
  • JM
    John M.
    19 August 2020 @ 04:00
    "who cares"? Given Buffet's prominence & longstanding antipathy to the metals his purchase of Barrick must have some information value? Shares of both Barrick & GDX were up sharply at the opening next day. Someone seemed to notice.
  • cs
    connor s.
    18 August 2020 @ 23:37
    How are you guys still missing the cannabis trade? Talk about Macro Headwinds.. and good Technicals.... and Perfect EntryTiming Everyone in this chat, do your self a favor, look up GRWG and watch Cramer (from yesterday) ... this is the most blatantly obvious macro trend being completely glossed over by RV. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/17/growgeneration-ups-guidance-ceo-says-cannabis-business-is-booming.html thank me later
    • MK
      Michael K.
      19 August 2020 @ 00:19
      I’ll stick to a single digit percent position in portfolio in TOKE and set it and forget it.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      19 August 2020 @ 01:19
      GRWG is a hockey stick! Wholey cow!
    • PN
      PJ N.
      19 August 2020 @ 02:36
      I know that Tony tracks a few cannabis stocks.
  • SH
    Sahil H.
    19 August 2020 @ 02:27
    Great concise update! Thanks for bringing Tony back on, I've been asking for this for a while. It would be good to get him on more regularly. It's funny to see how much the comments have changed since the last time Tony was on RVDB a couple months ago... Back then the comments where overwhelmingly negative because he was so bullish despite the situation with Covid. Now everyone there are basically no negative comments even though he is still just as bullish and cautious as he was back then. Is this a sign of a top?
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      19 August 2020 @ 02:28
      Now there are basically no negative comments**
  • PN
    PJ N.
    19 August 2020 @ 02:26
    Tony is great. He is one of the best, at making sense of the impact sentiment and momentum has. Without losing sight of the macro and fundamental picture.
  • cg
    charles g.
    18 August 2020 @ 22:48
    This guy just claimed the fall in the dollar is due to the expansion of the balance sheet even though if chart both the dollar has clearly been on a steep decline as the balance sheet is contracting.
    • CR
      Craig R.
      19 August 2020 @ 02:08
      I think he references that tightening and correction it implies near the end of the interview when he mentions that he is waiting for a deflationary event to give him a proper opening into the inflation trade.
  • CR
    Craig R.
    19 August 2020 @ 02:04
    What I found most interesting is the caveat he adds near the end about the inflation trade. He seems to think as do many interviewed on real vision, that there is a deflationary event in the cards and thus he is holding back and saving USD for just such an event. If you expand that logic to the market as a whole, that would seem to put a cap on the downward drift of the dxy and the upside of gold until we pass through that second chokepoint event.
  • RT
    Richard T.
    19 August 2020 @ 01:53
    Tony is theMan!
  • OM
    Owen M.
    19 August 2020 @ 01:44
    the RobinTrack api data aggregation has been disbanded. Robinhood shut it down.... for retailers. And yes, my guess is Citadel et al is going to pay for it.
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    19 August 2020 @ 01:41
    Home builders rally is getting a lot of buzz. Lots of moving parts - forbearance is distorting market function - interest rates are giving FTHB access they would not otherwise have, albeit at high prices - This runs out of legs - FTHB origin to refi is running at 33 months with avg $60k cash out. - Interest rates hitting the deck and tightening standards is going to flatline, especially as forbearance stresses conditions.
  • PB
    PHILLIP B.
    19 August 2020 @ 01:26
    There's a feeling that TG has his finger on the pulse of what's going in the flows that are relevant to retail investors. Very awesome.
  • OM
    Owen M.
    19 August 2020 @ 01:15
    Tony, appreciate ya! Enjoy your commentary and aspire to be like TG! Thank you for your time.
  • mB
    marc B.
    19 August 2020 @ 01:08
    Tony rocks.
  • MK
    Michael K.
    19 August 2020 @ 00:19
    Tony really is a trader’s trader. Thank you.
  • SS
    Sheldon S.
    19 August 2020 @ 00:18
    MORE TONY GREER. . . PLEASE
  • RD
    Riki D.
    19 August 2020 @ 00:00
    Excellent question answer interview. Well done guys and thanks! Tony, love your non bs, straight up style.
  • jl
    jarron l.
    18 August 2020 @ 23:56
    Tony you're unbelievably easy to understand, great DB guys!
  • MC
    Michael C.
    18 August 2020 @ 23:56
    Tony is great. One of my favorites
  • RV
    Richard V.
    18 August 2020 @ 23:49
    Greer is clear. Excellent!
  • MD
    Matt D.
    18 August 2020 @ 23:47
    Thanks Ash - really like Tony.
  • BA
    Bob A.
    18 August 2020 @ 23:47
    Tony is someone I would like to hear from every couple of weeks. Ash, I enjoy your style of managing the flow of the discussion, You are a master.
  • XM
    Xavier M.
    18 August 2020 @ 23:31
    This Tony Greer is always outstanding. He’s also rather cheeky on Twitter. Excellent follow.
  • AT
    ALAN T.
    18 August 2020 @ 23:19
    Really good clear and direct.
  • CB
    Chris B.
    18 August 2020 @ 23:14
    Good or bad, right or wrong Tony provides tickers and trade ideas to investigate and possibly act on. As a trader its 10x better than theoretical discussions. A-plus
  • BK
    Brian K.
    18 August 2020 @ 23:12
    Another great interview with Tony Greer. Fast, loose, and to the point
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    18 August 2020 @ 23:08
    Great show. Thanks guys!
  • JS
    Jon S.
    18 August 2020 @ 23:00
    This is the kind of interesting guest for RV DB great job!
  • CM
    Christopher M.
    18 August 2020 @ 22:51
    Is it possible that yesterday’s coverage of the mortgage delinquency to foreclosure ratio is playing a role in today’s discussion of the lumber price? Apart from mill closures discussed yesterday and migration out of the city discussed today, is it possible the banks are incentivized right more aggressively lend for new home construction because some 6-7% of their home loans are defaulting without their ability to foreclose?
  • LH
    Leigh H.
    18 August 2020 @ 22:39
    I like T Greer
  • JS
    Jon S.
    18 August 2020 @ 22:36
    Great Job Ash. When are you taking holidays Ash? We would not like that you overwork too much :). However, if you can keep it on stay on air always, love the way you interview visitors! Thank you Ash.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      18 August 2020 @ 22:38
      Thanks, Jon. Much appreciated. Probably not anytime soon... lol
  • ER
    Ernesto R.
    18 August 2020 @ 22:16
    Excellent Ash great interview and great 4 TV of Tony's
  • MH
    Muddshir H.
    18 August 2020 @ 21:57
    Thanks Ash