Daily Briefing – August 19, 2020

Published on
August 19th, 2020
Duration
32 minutes


Daily Briefing – August 19, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Peter Cooper, Ash Bennington, and Roger Hirst

Published on: August 19th, 2020 • Duration: 32 minutes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Roger Hirst, to take a deep dive into the apex predator of currency markets: the U.S. dollar. Roger argues that the size and speed of the dollar's fall is driven more by euro strength, flowing out from the ECB's move toward debt mutualization, than it is by dollar weakness. He explains how certain EM currencies are still weakening as compared to the dollar and how the ECB and the BOJ may find it difficult to hit their inflation targets should their currencies continue to strengthen. Roger also expounds on how bond yield convergence between the U.S. and Europe is contributing to euro strength. In light of these potential structural challenges and the supply and demand bottlenecks due to COVID-19, Ash and Roger then explore how to play the trade and the ongoing bifurcation of financial markets and the economy. In the intro, Peter Cooper looks at Apple's $2 trillion valuation and Target's Q2 earnings report.

Comments

Transcript

  • BK
    Bruce K.
    19 August 2020 @ 22:18
    Great to have Roger back in the house!
    • SB
      Steve B.
      22 August 2020 @ 14:11
      amen!
  • JE
    J E.
    21 August 2020 @ 01:07
    Great points.. seems the weak dollar thesis is looking a bit tired, as more recognize the day etc chart patterns are really a reflection of relative euro strength.. whereas the trade-weighted is a ball under water. Perhaps Raoul's napalm run is still in the cards.. are you ready?
    • JE
      J E.
      21 August 2020 @ 01:10
      Day = dxy
  • MM
    Mike M.
    20 August 2020 @ 12:43
    "I don't mean to brag, but I recently got to the south of Midtown East." F...Hilarious. Ash is just excellent at hosting this show. Highly educated, keeps great pace and F'k...hilarious.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      20 August 2020 @ 21:49
      Ha. Thanks, man.
  • ER
    Eoin R.
    20 August 2020 @ 20:11
    Welcome back Roger. More please!
  • GH
    Galen H.
    20 August 2020 @ 13:14
    Is there any chance central banks do away with trying to stem deflation, pushing for inflation? Maybe there is a move to targeting GDP/Capita and employment along with income grants (in combination with fiscal spend) or another set of targets. Correct me if I'm wrong, this would be terrible for gold. Or do you think this is years away?
  • JS
    Jon S.
    20 August 2020 @ 03:41
    Great to See Roger back. Please we need Roger once a week :)
    • RL
      Remmelt L.
      20 August 2020 @ 12:55
      So true
  • DO
    DIOGO O.
    20 August 2020 @ 11:41
    exceptional!!! cheers!!!!
  • AT
    Alun T.
    20 August 2020 @ 09:12
    Roger is the Man. Great to see him back. Clear, concise, with well laid out arguments.
  • WM
    William M.
    20 August 2020 @ 00:35
    Apple's market cap is greater than the market values of all but 4 countries markets (US Japan China and UK)....
    • MT
      Mike T.
      20 August 2020 @ 08:19
      What could possibly go wrong?
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    20 August 2020 @ 06:30
    Excellent analysis. Is it me or are all the wines and most glasses gone from behind gone? 😉
  • ML
    Michele L.
    20 August 2020 @ 02:41
    Ash's dry humor consistently cracks me up - "don't mean to brag but i recently got to the south of mid-town east." That said, you're overdue for a vacation somewhere outside of manhattan sometime soon!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      20 August 2020 @ 03:35
      Odds are strong that I’m not escaping my desk anytime soon...
  • BG
    Barry G.
    20 August 2020 @ 02:30
    Great to see Rodger back and providing great macro insights.
  • ly
    lena y.
    20 August 2020 @ 02:28
    Roger's interview with Julian https://youtu.be/YpgfIfD_cRs
  • OM
    Owen M.
    20 August 2020 @ 02:15
    Roger great to have you back! You need some more wine in the racks. Ash, as always, well done. thank you RV. rest well.
  • mB
    marc B.
    20 August 2020 @ 02:06
    All about the usd.
    • mB
      marc B.
      20 August 2020 @ 02:08
      It sounds like us & Europe will do whatever it takes to devalue their fiat currency. Millennials hate the financial system. Bitcoin & crypto. Providing new jobs. burn the old system it down!
  • AB
    Alastair B.
    20 August 2020 @ 01:52
    “If the top 6 stocks in the S&P drop 10% then the bottom 100 need to rally 90% for the S&P to break even.” Interesting way to show the concentration of the S&P there. The concentration of sales into large retailers such as Target and Walmart with online / delivery infrastructure already in place over the pandemic is going to be played out in the area between those two extremes though - it’s not always about tech vs. The rest, as many of the better positioned companies within traditional industries that are enhanced by tech may be where opportunity lies going forwards. Perhaps a RVDB focusing on winners and losers in the non-Amazon retail sector (or travel if you feeling brave) would be good? And of course, welcome back Roger :)
  • VJ
    Victor J.
    20 August 2020 @ 01:51
    Peter Cooper great segment on Target
  • TW
    Tom W.
    19 August 2020 @ 23:33
    Always learn a lot from Rodger. And I would learn 50% more if he would talk 10% slower My problem not his
    • gj
      gail j.
      20 August 2020 @ 01:43
      Me too!
  • SC
    Sejong C.
    20 August 2020 @ 01:36
    Asset markets were on steroids. And they lived happily ever after. Is this the sentiment here? Is this possible?
  • JL
    James L.
    20 August 2020 @ 00:13
    Yes, the perfect timing to have Roger back after a big move in currencies.
  • AT
    Amy T.
    20 August 2020 @ 00:04
    Can you please explain to me what Roger mean at 31:26, if it’s not inflationary what happens to gold and silver?
  • PB
    Paul B.
    19 August 2020 @ 23:12
    Good Talk. Here in Australia the Economy is going absolute Gang Busters. The Massive Sugar rush is Punters Taking out up to 20K tax free from there Superannuation, end of Financial Year & Corona Supplement. No pent up demand here, it's pretty much all Fiscal pure and simple
  • JH
    Jacqueline H.
    19 August 2020 @ 22:49
    Welcome back Roger, and thank you all. Very helpful briefing.
  • CW
    Corey W.
    19 August 2020 @ 22:17
    Roger's makes me wish I was even half as hip as his hair looks. Love it.