Daily Briefing – August 20, 2020

Published on
August 20th, 2020
Duration
36 minutes


Daily Briefing – August 20, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Peter Cooper, Ash Bennington, and Roger Hirst

Published on: August 20th, 2020 • Duration: 36 minutes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts managing editor, Roger Hirst, to discuss ongoing global monetary and fiscal policy support, how central banks may need to adjust their course, and what the long-term ramifications would look like. Ash and Roger review the latest FOMC minutes and consider the effects of looser inflation targeting and the implementation of yield curve control. They dig deeper into the push and pull of inflation targeting by looking at the risks of aiming for reflation and ending up with stagflation. In an environment of low rates and low yields within a deflationary structure, Roger and Ash explore how aggregate debt and growth could be negatively impacted in the long run. Finally, they look at how these scenarios would be expressed in currency markets—the continuing disparity between the dollar and the DXY and the growing pressure for a weaker euro and yen. In the intro, Peter Cooper examines the scaling back of U.S. dollar liquidity swaps, the newest unemployment numbers, and the FOMC minutes.

Comments

Transcript

  • CT
    Chris T.
    21 August 2020 @ 08:05
    Roger Hirst probably your best asset, excellent speaker. Would be good to see Raoul and Roger together
    • LF
      Liam F.
      25 August 2020 @ 23:30
      Yes please!
  • DO
    DIOGO O.
    21 August 2020 @ 11:09
    One thing I can't find anynone, except Richard Werner, to asnwer: ''Why can't the Central Bank print money and buy ALL THE DEBT OUTSTANDING in the commercial banks balance sheets?'' All of it, household, small, large companies...etc. Commercial banks would have enormous reserves, however, only by LENDING they create money and manke money flow into society increase. For example, if you give 1000 Trillion dollars to a commercial bank, as reserve, and the bank does not lend any money, zero, the inflation is ZERO, in regards to that bank actions. Therefore, Werner's ideias are sensible: 1) Buy all debt in banks balance sheet, ALL OF IT. 2) REGULATE CREDIT CREATION, FOR GOD'S SAKE!!! NO CREDIT FOR SPECULATION, NOR FOR CONSUMERS, ONLY FOR INVESTMENT INTO STUFF THAT INCREASE GOODS AND SERVICES IN THE ECONOMY How hard is to understand that?? Great interview! Cheers!!
    • LF
      Liam F.
      25 August 2020 @ 23:29
      Because greed + oligarchy. ;-)
  • LF
    Liam F.
    25 August 2020 @ 23:27
    Re leaving cities...it's definitely happening in San Francisco. My sister is selling her house and moving out to the Northern suburbs. Yesterday I received a letter from a realtor whose clients are looking to move from SF down to the Southern suburbs. SF moving companies apparently are turning people away. They're too busy moving folks out. And why not? Infrastructure is getting crumbly. Prices insane. Spaces smaller. Public schools are crappy. Private schools impossible to get into. And in SF, the homeless problems are even MORE out of control than ever, and human feces is littered all over the place. For me personally, there was never any joy in living with millions of strangers. I prefer space, light, and air. What do they say about men going mad in herds, but only coming to their senses one at a time? Attitudes are changing. I've got a colleague who is moving out of the Bay Area entirely (smart for a young'n I think). Spoke with a customer today who mentioned that he is NEVER going back into the office again.
  • JM
    Jason M.
    24 August 2020 @ 22:59
    Roger Hirst is the man
  • TN
    Tim N.
    23 August 2020 @ 02:02
    Death by a thousand cuts - 2020 in a nutshell. RV and RH interviews and simply fantastic :):)
  • SB
    Steve B.
    22 August 2020 @ 14:19
    is yield curve control not just a fancy word for QE?
  • DC
    D C.
    21 August 2020 @ 11:01
    Roger Hirst.... the best guest.... everytime. I learn so much from him.
  • AT
    Alun T.
    21 August 2020 @ 10:01
    A great week so far on DB.....Tony Greer and Roger Hirst twice! Great insight and value.
  • AE
    Alex E.
    21 August 2020 @ 09:45
    Inflation seems to be picking up in the UK the fastest out of the developed world. Would like to hear Rogers thoughts on this
    • AE
      Alex E.
      21 August 2020 @ 09:45
      Great interview by the way
  • PJ
    Paul J.
    21 August 2020 @ 02:19
    Roger is so much better than Ash tbh
    • DS
      David S.
      21 August 2020 @ 09:08
      Stupid comment. DLS
  • FD
    Frank D.
    21 August 2020 @ 07:21
    Does it make sense to compare the S&P 500 as a performance indes (Dividends reinvested) with the Eurostoxx 50 as a price index (no dividends reinvested)?
  • TL
    Tom L.
    21 August 2020 @ 07:06
    Roger two days in row, are we going to have Raoul to finish the week for the cherry on top?
  • bm
    bijesh m.
    21 August 2020 @ 02:57
    Would like to hear Roger's take on market at least once a week in future. @Ash: No doubt he would have made a great professor!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      21 August 2020 @ 06:54
      Roger is much more interesting than my professors were...
  • ZW
    Zachary W.
    21 August 2020 @ 06:37
    I liked The Ramones quote from Ash - ‘second verse same as the first’. Best thing anyone has said all week. I’m going to put on one of their albums now.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      21 August 2020 @ 06:53
      Ha. Thanks for catching that! https://youtu.be/MXcjg9o9HJ8 The Ramones stole it from Herman’s Hermits...
  • bm
    bijesh m.
    21 August 2020 @ 04:26
    can we get Brent Johnson anytime soon?
  • LH
    Leigh H.
    21 August 2020 @ 01:56
    Roger is totally out of wine.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      21 August 2020 @ 04:11
      It’s that kind of year
  • BB
    Bob B.
    21 August 2020 @ 02:55
    Roger - isn't that a long winded way of saying currency wars?
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    21 August 2020 @ 02:48
    This pretty much nailed it. Great discussion. What's so crazy is this plurality of macro themes are taking time to play out due to CB activity and interest rates heading to the zero bound. What is the rate of decay on the effectiveness of CB policies as rates approach zero across the economy and the broad spectrum of assets...
  • AT
    ALAN T.
    21 August 2020 @ 02:02
    i would like to hear more deep analysis on the Fed. As Roger said their predictions are poor and have been for a long time. I've also heard scathing criticism of the models they use being laughably archaic. They haven't hit any of the inflation targets either so how would we have any confidence that they can produce inflation and even if they could that they could control it. How much impact do they really have with the various programs. How much of the impact is real, how much is a psychological effect and what are we really facing with unintended(?) consequences. Lots of questions I know but the more I read and listen I get more unclear as to the real effects of central bank interventions.
  • LA
    Lawrence A.
    21 August 2020 @ 00:23
    Roger twice in a row.....this is a great week for RV!
  • MD
    Matt D.
    20 August 2020 @ 23:45
    Excellent DB Ash and Roger, thanks. Interesting that you think the ECB and BOJ will take measures - makes sense but the hows? Direction intervention? Can't see the whole MMT-esque FED changing - 38 of their "esteemed" members (ex or ? ) wrote a letter against the nomination of Judy Shelton. Says a lot - not encouraging. ??
    • MD
      Matt D.
      21 August 2020 @ 00:06
      Ha - direction intervention. What a goose. Direct intervention. Thought the comment by Peter was good too - on how the various Central Banks are cutting back their access to the Fed emergency liquidity.
  • JR
    Jonathan R.
    20 August 2020 @ 23:48
    Looks like Roger needs to refill his bottle stash!
  • JB
    Jack B.
    20 August 2020 @ 23:42
    Would like to hear what happens if the dollar strengthens?
  • RD
    Riki D.
    20 August 2020 @ 23:37
    Great interview gents. Articulate, insightful, concise, broad and comprehensive given the 35m slot limitation. Love your ocassional deadpan comments Ash!!
  • TM
    Tyler M.
    20 August 2020 @ 23:34
    Great daily briefing. Very interesting discussion. Keep up the good work! Thanks
  • DG
    Dave G.
    20 August 2020 @ 22:14
    Bring on the inflation. Make the Fed happy and squirm at the same time.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    20 August 2020 @ 22:01
    Nice to see Roger again! Always a good choice!