Daily Briefing – August 25, 2020

Published on
August 25th, 2020
Duration
22 minutes


Daily Briefing – August 25, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Nick Correa, Ash Bennington, and Tony Greer

Published on: August 25th, 2020 • Duration: 22 minutes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator, to continue their discussion of the wild inflation trade. They first look at ExxonMobil getting the boot from the Dow Jones and how it reflects a weak energy sector and the rotation of tech upward, describing how the boom across tech subsectors is correlated to Fed policies. Tony also notes how the baton has been passed over to commodities as well as they continue exploding and how a sell-off in bonds will sustain the commodities' rally while denoting a rise in inflation. He closes off by providing an update on his thoughts on the DXY, why dollar weakness is a part of the commodities bull case, and what might be driving the rallies in the yen, euro, and Aussie dollar. In the intro, Nick Correa talks about tech's ongoing dominance in the market by looking at Dow Jones' makeover and how tech companies are lining up to file their IPOs.

Comments

Transcript

  • TL
    Tracey L.
    31 August 2020 @ 02:31
    TG MAC...keep slugging. Ash, I agree with Unforgettable T and David P, TG MAC Tuesdays!!!!! TG MAC's first RV interview brought a breath of life to a very doomy and gloomy Corona nightmare. In that interview he said he didn't have time for doom and gloom as he was trying to figure out how to buy all the oil he would ever need in his lifetime while prices were dirt cheap. Cheers to TG!!! He was spot on with his inflation call. Money flows, not fundamentals = record highs. Very helpful and profitable advice.
  • PB
    Paul B.
    26 August 2020 @ 23:10
    I would have thought you would have discussed the extremely large moves today of CRM 26%, FB 8.22%, NFLX 11.61%, ADBE 9.1%, etc. These are huge moves on top of huge moves. What is happening? When and what will change this? The bulk of the rest of the market is hurting.
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    26 August 2020 @ 21:29
    Am just saving cash and waiting! Not gonna get FOMO, whatever it takes.
  • DM
    Don M.
    26 August 2020 @ 19:50
    I wanted to like this but when I signed up for Tony's newsletter and twitter I was overwhelmed by his politics. I don't care if someone loves Trump or hates Trump, I just want to feel comfortable that politics aren't shaping market views. When I asked for previous newsletters (pre-Covid) I was ignored and eventually sent a terse email telling me I didn't understand what was going on. Please less Tony; his market views seem to be tightly wound with his love of the current admin.
  • GS
    Gary S.
    26 August 2020 @ 03:22
    None of these experts understand australia, they are all stuck on the housing which is old news and not even an issue. Every time the short Australia I go long and make a killing
    • PB
      Patrick B.
      26 August 2020 @ 10:36
      Enlighten us then Garry
    • NK
      Nick K.
      26 August 2020 @ 18:06
      I agree with Patrick... let us in...
  • RG
    RAMANA G.
    26 August 2020 @ 18:00
    Tony is crisp and to the point. I like the way he spoke about trading based on price action not on fundamentals
  • AL
    Aaron L.
    26 August 2020 @ 04:20
    Please make Tony a regular, no less than once a fortnight
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      26 August 2020 @ 12:52
      Seconded
    • dp
      david p.
      26 August 2020 @ 16:58
      Thirded, I like the sound of TGTuesdays on RVDB
  • CB
    Chris B.
    25 August 2020 @ 23:50
    I said it before, I will say it again. A real trader, who watches the tape, with real trades and one that has a cogent thesis to go with it is 10x better ( for me ) than robust intellectual debates between smart people that offer no actionable information. Kudos for having Tony back. I encourage RV to look for more of the same. And, while I am making requests, I might as well ask for a technician now and then. They used to appear every so often but have long since disappeared. Thank you!
    • CB
      Clifford B.
      26 August 2020 @ 01:12
      Seconded
    • RM
      Robert M.
      26 August 2020 @ 02:44
      Don't disagree on technicians, but Tony is a trader. This is one of his better interviews. But not all of us are traders, so hearing from some of the intellectuals can be good for long term investors. RV needs a mix of both.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      26 August 2020 @ 03:00
      Your wish is our command.
    • MF
      M F.
      26 August 2020 @ 15:33
      Chris B...totally agree...i have been saying this to RVDB and Milton many times...actionable and defined specifics about what is moving/why, and what looks good/bad...we can have the longer-term ideas and intellectual debates and deep dives in the other parts of RV but keep the RVDB punchy, specific, and actionable. And Tony is outstanding. A weekly with him on the RVDB would raise the usefulness of RVDB 5x as someone who actually works in markets.
  • GK
    Gautam K.
    26 August 2020 @ 15:19
    Greer is just brilliant!
  • MJ
    Marius J.
    26 August 2020 @ 13:21
    Great, weekly thanks!!!
  • KS
    Karin S.
    26 August 2020 @ 12:04
    Love, Tony.
  • UT
    Unforgettable T.
    26 August 2020 @ 12:03
    great conversation, in my opinion Tony is one of the best guys for the daily briefing... trade the wave carefully but enjoy the ride...
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    26 August 2020 @ 11:35
    Very good Ash. One of the best interviews
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    26 August 2020 @ 09:27
    Super useful conversation! Thanks a lot!
  • VG
    Viktor G.
    26 August 2020 @ 06:42
    Ash is a great moderator!
  • JD
    Jimmy D.
    26 August 2020 @ 03:20
    I like the new format. I also like how the RealVision hosts and guests seem more willing in recent months to talk specific trades rather than being vague. I like big idea macro stuff but that's always better wrapped up at the end with your SPY target.
  • PB
    Paul B.
    26 August 2020 @ 00:44
    Did I hear him saying if rates go up....Yeah right
    • DG
      Dave G.
      26 August 2020 @ 02:48
      Rates go up tech goes down
    • RM
      Robert M.
      26 August 2020 @ 02:58
      From Rosenberg Research today - "We are in the late innings of the secular bull market in bonds,but a new sustainable rise in yields I think is some time away." Lacy Hunt says the same ( and you should read his quarterly reports at Hoisington). In ST, Tony could be right, but don't believe Fed is going to let rates rise no matter what they say about yield curve control. This would have to impact mortgage rates, which hits home sales, which negatively impacts economy. To Tony's point, will inflation force the Fed's hand and at what point? Lacy Hunt argues the blanket of debt will keep rates down. Rosenberg sees ST deflationary forces but does believe LT that rates will increase. But I own gold and agree with the commodities thesis that we will eventually see inflation. But also own TLT as an offset in the short run.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    25 August 2020 @ 23:33
    I seek macro. Tony says he is about the tape. Big distance there. Once a week is too often for another popular prognosticator. Likeable fellow but not productive for the big picture.
    • PD
      Paul D.
      26 August 2020 @ 00:41
      I agree. I do enjoy Tony's commentary but not once a week.
    • DG
      Dave G.
      26 August 2020 @ 02:51
      If the tape changed to the other direction i wonder if his tune would change?
  • MA
    Mike A.
    25 August 2020 @ 23:48
    OH MAN thanks Ash for bringing Tony back and asking all the right questions this is pure GLD for a trader.. If you could slot him one a week will up my subscription! Take Care
    • RM
      Robert M.
      26 August 2020 @ 02:47
      Tony has a service you can subscribe: https://tgmacro.com/ You would get info daily.
  • IN
    I N.
    26 August 2020 @ 02:05
    If you are a very active trader/investor and err on the macro side but price movement has confused you, watch this segment.
  • JV
    Joel V.
    26 August 2020 @ 00:42
    Tony Greer > Tony Stark. clear and concise. thx.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    26 August 2020 @ 00:13
    A much more coherent narrative from Tony than a few months ago so that's positive. As an Aussie working in markets for 20 years I have a different explanation to AUD strength than yours. Iron Ore prices never really sold off like Copper and other commodities in March/April. Iron Ore has rallied from $70/t to $120/t on Chinese demand and has nothing to do with the Fed. Chinese imports of Iron Ore have been very strong and while Brazilian production was shut down, China substituted with more Australian supply. This sent Australia's terms of trade higher and gave us a record current account surplus. Naturally this sent our currency higher. Australian bulk commodity exports to China have remained very strong even as Brazilian production comes back to full capacity. China is stimulating the supply side of its economy (but not so much the consumption side - ref Michael Pettis). So the strength in AUD has been really due to our trade surplus with China and not so much to do with the Fed. While USDCNY is back to 6.91 there is no real evidence that it is due to China recycling a flood of USD flowing into their system. With Iron Ore prices at $120/t fair value models on AUDUSD are around 74 cents.
    • SM
      Sergio M.
      26 August 2020 @ 00:39
      thank you for sharing this - something to think about
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    26 August 2020 @ 00:23
    Ash, you need paper towels, I can hook you up. Just send send me dets
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      26 August 2020 @ 00:30
      Ha. Thanks, Timothy. I’ve been buying them in bulk online.
  • OM
    Owen M.
    26 August 2020 @ 00:04
    thanks again for bringing back TG. Appreciate it.
  • LL
    Louis-Philippe L.
    25 August 2020 @ 23:57
    Practical, to the point and done with such humility and kindness. Thank you Tony
  • RI
    R I.
    25 August 2020 @ 23:27
    Cool, bro. Though it might require math, don’t forget that you need to subtract inflation from nominal yields to calculate real yields. The calculation may change your mind on selling gold rallies. Then again, you’re a price bro so you’ll catch on soon enough.
  • JD
    Jonathan D.
    25 August 2020 @ 23:24
    Love the true talk. Yea things are overpriced but... the Fed. Respect this analysis so much more that somebody trying to give some rational for why this makes since outside of government policy.
    • JD
      Jonathan D.
      25 August 2020 @ 23:25
      edit: *sense
  • MD
    Matt D.
    25 August 2020 @ 23:04
    Another great interview Ash, Tony always steps up to the plate. "Stay out of the cat-fight..." It's so tempting (the auto company known as Tesla).
  • DS
    David S.
    25 August 2020 @ 23:00
    Great DB. Moving fast with TG covering everything. He looked manic that we "Might" be starting a new up-leg! Like the no boundaries part. Literally uncharted territories.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    25 August 2020 @ 22:56
    Mark Haines... The Church of What's working right now...;)
  • MH
    Muddshir H.
    25 August 2020 @ 22:36
    Thanks ash for bringing tony again
  • MM
    Melvyn M.
    25 August 2020 @ 22:35
    A great trio on tonight’s show, Tony never fails to inspire me to grab the bull by the horns! thanks rv and keep up the great work Ash.