Daily Briefing – August 27, 2020

Published on
August 27th, 2020
Duration
40 minutes


Daily Briefing – August 27, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Nick Correa, Ash Bennington, and Thomas Thornton

Published on: August 27th, 2020 • Duration: 40 minutes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to check the pulse of the market. Tommy discusses how frothy markets have seen price action heavily skewed by sentiment, and how, with companies withholding guidance for the year, investors are flying blind. He and Ash go over some of the tools Tommy utilizes to examine market trends and momentum, explore how short sellers are currently getting smoked, and consider whether the Fed can continue its QE binge. Tommy then provides his view on the Fed's move toward average inflation targeting and his forward outlook for the next few months. In the intro, Nick Correa provides an overview of Fed Chair Jay Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and how the Fed is shifting course regarding inflation targeting.

Comments

Transcript

  • JS
    John S.
    28 August 2020 @ 01:00
    If Biden can bring his A-game from 10 years ago... LOL - if only we had a cure for senile dementia!
    • DS
      David S.
      28 August 2020 @ 06:24
      Maybe both could use a little help. DLS
    • GH
      Gregory H.
      28 August 2020 @ 16:47
      David S., can't agree because Trump is putting has been putting in 16-18 hour days for the past 5 years... Biden had his shot to run against Hillary in 2016, but didn't... he missed his window, and now it's pretty ridiculous with Nancy Pelosi saying they should not debate...
    • JW
      Jeff W.
      2 September 2020 @ 12:24
      16-18 hour days? What, on the golf course and in front of Fox.
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    28 August 2020 @ 19:57
    I think Tesla is a bit like Bitcoin in that it is difficult for most people to understand why it is so valuable. If you have the right education and you do your homework, you will eventually understand why it is worth $2,000 per share.
    • AR
      Alexander R.
      28 August 2020 @ 21:30
      More like 20$ :)
    • TE
      Tito E.
      30 August 2020 @ 12:29
      piece of shit
  • RD
    Riki D.
    29 August 2020 @ 00:12
    Interesting comment regarding an annual vaccination for COVID19. Makes sense given its similar in some pathological respects to influenza and where 40-60k deaths result in the USA pa despite. ARDs is the main cause of death and in particular for those with comorbidities are at the greatest risk. What is different with COVID19, is it is significantly more contagious but worse, causes secondary significant issues with organs. Specifically vascular clotting and consequently organ shutdown. There is also problem with children and in particular MIS-C and Kawasaki disease. All of these have the same underlying pathological cause - inflammation. A company was recent given a OADC FDA 9-1 vote in favour of a product that resolves a similar issue in children with GvHD. Final sign off by late Sept latest. Maybe a potential off label application for COVID19.
  • JT
    Joseph T.
    28 August 2020 @ 22:20
    Refreshing.
  • SL
    Stuart L.
    28 August 2020 @ 20:59
    Tommy showed real humility about missing the mania phase of the tech stocks. Very honest. He might find the work of Mike Green at Logica helpful to understand the role of passive ETFs in propelling the market higher. The role of passive and indexed ETFs from Vanguard and Blackrock have fundamentally changed the market structure as such ETFs are basically price agnostic. They buy at any price when they receive cash inflows and sell at any price when they receive redemptions. They don't care about valuations.
  • PE
    Per E.
    28 August 2020 @ 11:48
    We have very different view of where the center is if you call yourself center right, but also claim Andrew Yang is your guy..
    • GH
      Gregory H.
      28 August 2020 @ 16:37
      Agreed, Yang's UBI actually is quite libertarian and he cares about the little guy, but then tries to curry favor (CNN job) with the machine he claims to be against... How Tommy answered about framing Biden win as base case and by the cadence/mannerisms of his answer sounds like a lot of finance/corporate people I've known who are afraid/ashamed to say their conservative because of Trump, which I can understand.
    • TT
      Tommy T. | Contributor
      28 August 2020 @ 18:19
      Perhaps I should say I'm a realist of where politics are today. Are we going backward after the entitlements that are given out today? No. I don't agree with Yang on everything but I know taxes are going to go up in the coming years and his plan to give $1000 to each US citizen monthly sounded nuts at first but he's also advocating a VAT tax which would get back some of that money with people spending. He's a realist on demographics and where jobs are going to be in the future or better where jobs will be replaced with technology and there isn't another politician saying more than 'we have to create jobs' when none of them understand technology. My view is that I have an open mind when it comes to hearing new ideas as we've got plenty of the same old ideas that haven't worked. May I suggest checking out on youtube Yang's interview with Joe Rogan podcast or other longer format interviews as it's more than a sound bite that plagues most political talk. Thanks for your reply.
    • MS
      Mark S.
      28 August 2020 @ 18:58
      Totally agree. Every time I hear UBI, I immediately picture Sector 12 from the Hunger Games.
  • RT
    Richard T.
    27 August 2020 @ 23:16
    I don't come here for political analysis. Stifle yourselves, please.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      28 August 2020 @ 05:08
      It’s not all about you. When politics is mentioned, it is in the context of markets. It’s a major risk right now and needs to be addressed.
    • TT
      Tommy T. | Contributor
      28 August 2020 @ 18:31
      I understand and agree however the markets have been driven primarily by political decisions and will be in the coming quarters. My views were not to influence anyone but to discuss market implications.
  • lf
    liam f.
    28 August 2020 @ 05:43
    I think this guy's opinions are weak. Particularly the support for Yang. I see people like that as too "smart" for their own good.
    • lf
      liam f.
      28 August 2020 @ 05:44
      Enjoyed the interview though!
    • TT
      Tommy T. | Contributor
      28 August 2020 @ 18:24
      You sound like what my wife tells me
  • MS
    Mark S.
    28 August 2020 @ 10:33
    A few weeks ago, Ash and Ed had an exchange about politics, and how RV only cares about politics when it intersects with the economy. I believe the last 6 minutes of this daily briefing should have been cut. Ash didn't challenge Tommy on any his political commentary or how it will affect his macro views. (1) Is 2020 more contentious then 2000 Bush/Gore with the Supreme Court and hanging chads? 2008 McCain/Obama? 2016 Sanders/Clinton/Trump? (2) Tommy the center right Republican thinks Biden is Far Left but supports Yang. If Biden is APPL, then Yang is TSLA. (3) What makes the never Trumper Tommy believe that Trump won't peacefully hand over power? Is this really a worthy topic? The US has had 4 months of protests/riots in some cities, but we are discussing this? In our current political climate, isn't trillions of reparations 10-15x more likely than an issue with the hand over of power? (4) A complaint about mail-in voting. We barely do an acceptable job of in-person vote counting. Tommy's economic views were interesting and insightful, but his random political commentary left me feeling that he has an ax to grind about Mitt Romney's loss
    • TT
      Tommy T. | Contributor
      28 August 2020 @ 18:23
      I'm long rational people even if I don't agree 100% with policies. It's a bear market for rational politics. I hear you and understand your thoughts. Ash said, "oh are we really going to talk politics?"
  • RA
    Ralph A.
    28 August 2020 @ 11:45
    Have you even been to a concert or sporting event before? The logistics are already a cluster f*ck and now you are going to throw in a medical test where people need to wait around for results for 15 minutes? Where we they wait? How will you keep track of them when everyone is wearing a mask?
    • TT
      Tommy T. | Contributor
      28 August 2020 @ 18:20
      If we are in this situation, I'd be up for waiting 15 minutes to go see a game again.
  • DB
    Donna B.
    28 August 2020 @ 14:26
    Doublespeak. Watch for new nomenclature and be suspect. "Systematic or average inflation" is code for the Fed cannot control the markets or won't try control the markets. It's a cover story and don't fall for it.
  • MA
    Mike A.
    28 August 2020 @ 01:51
    Market's Overvalued.,..Check AAPL/TSLA are Expensive ....Check Don't short TSLA....Check Stock Splits adds no value...Check Find good stocks early..Check FED over did it.....Check ++++ Fed can't get Inflation over 2%...Check Neg Rates = Bad....Check Banks make more money with a steeper curve.. Check Liquidity not getting to Main St... Check Vaccine would be a game Changer....Check A Lot of unknowns with Covid-19...Check A rising A/D line helps the market go up...Check I wish we had different Candidates.....Check Whoever gets into office will have a really hard time..Check I got Nothin??
    • PS
      Paul S.
      28 August 2020 @ 08:01
      Fair call Mike, it was an interesting interview and a revisit to the issues of today. With the Zoom JP briefing, I was looking for an extra insight, but what's new, nothing? I guess the thing to take away from this is uncertainty is everywhere and as Ash stated, there seems to be little hope of a moderate centrist party going ahead.
    • MH
      Michael H.
      28 August 2020 @ 12:47
      Great reply, this is exactly why at the end of the video I felt like it was more of a recap of where we are, nothing insightful.
  • AF
    Anthony F.
    28 August 2020 @ 12:32
    As long as he took profit and even if he got out early always new opportunities. Don't let the fomo hit you.
  • TN
    Tim N.
    28 August 2020 @ 08:31
    2020 - year of the Tech-Tulip Mania. Such honesty is a breath of fresh air. Thanks RV DB
  • DS
    David S.
    28 August 2020 @ 05:55
    This is a superb DB. TT is a great guest with substantive, clear and expert commentary and insight. Please continue to ask him back. And AB, as always, does a terrific job at drawing out useful, actionable information from his guests.
  • AB
    Alastair B.
    28 August 2020 @ 04:47
    If you couldn’t get 2% when you had a 2% target...... perhaps war will do the trick? The US hasn’t had a new war for a while now, that may see inflation tick up
  • PB
    Patrick B.
    28 August 2020 @ 04:11
    Best guest on the DB in a while, thanks
  • PN
    PJ N.
    28 August 2020 @ 03:57
    Enjoyed the interview. Really appreciated Tommy's honesty in discussing both markets and politics.
  • IN
    I N.
    28 August 2020 @ 02:31
    All thumbs up for rational and centrist, Mr Thornton!
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    27 August 2020 @ 23:34
    Humility is definitely refreshing. A general comment on AAPL. At trailing PE of 38, it may look pricy, but there is a lot of potential upside with 5G which will be transformative. How that plays out, unclear. Just saying 5G is huge...
    • DG
      Dave G.
      28 August 2020 @ 00:28
      I think 5G is the most over hyped reason for AAPL run up. 5G will hardly make a noticeable difference in real world use on any cell phone. Yes there could come some new advancements with 5G but a slightly faster cell phone is not a game changer.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      28 August 2020 @ 01:45
      I think 5G may be transformative if it can replace my Comcast in my home. As far as my phone, 4G is fastest enough. I don't think people just dump their phones to get new $1,500 5G phones in the middle of a recession.
    • MA
      Mike A.
      28 August 2020 @ 02:08
      They said the same thing about fiber optics in the 90's "unlimited bandwidth"
  • ST
    Steven T.
    28 August 2020 @ 00:43
    I think I am going to follow this guy and do the exact opposite
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      28 August 2020 @ 02:06
      I agree - short the virus news
  • AG
    Adrian G.
    28 August 2020 @ 01:54
    We're clearly in a speculative bubble right now. I feel like that is why many of the experts have been getting it wrong because they're not analyzing it from a psychological perspective. David Hunter (https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian) has been one of the only people who's been on the money the whole time. Would be wonderful to do an interview with him!
  • DS
    David S.
    28 August 2020 @ 01:40
    Candid conversation. Thanks. For either party to win, it must be more conservative or more liberal during the election. In a second term, we understand better how President Trump will govern. For former Vice President Biden, I think it will be more attenuated than the normal pre-election positions. Regardless, the economy, governments and most citizens will be in a bad place resulting from the COVID problems. Until we find out about the mortgage and loan mitigation programs for the pandemic, especially private loan/credit card defaults, the current reserves for bad debts on bank balance sheets may be insufficient. Maybe Mr. Harrison can give us an update on bank reserves as he is focused on the credit markets. DLS
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    28 August 2020 @ 00:17
    Second comment on real estate. If the long end of the yield curve rises, it puts pressure on residential prices. Also, forbearance hasn't played out. Agreed on the panic buy. I've done a lot of analysis on housing data. There appears to be a bifurcation in housing on a variety of levels...
    • RM
      Robert M.
      28 August 2020 @ 00:33
      Been tracking real estate for my daughter in Atlanta. Getting a number of emails from Zillow with price cuts. She just made an offer on a house who had cut their price and then took a lower offer. Where I live in Nashville, saw high price homes move in May and June, others listed homes on market because of higher prices and they are now not moving. Feel things are slowing in some markets.
  • GS
    Gary S.
    27 August 2020 @ 23:28
    I bought Tesla at 257 and believed it would reach 3K by 2025. At the time watching all these shorts ganging up on Tesla was pissing me off . Dumb stories about BMW and FORD making EVs that would beat Tesla was just absolute garbage. I have enjoyed watching them get blown out of the water.
    • JA
      Jordan A.
      27 August 2020 @ 23:56
      Don't tempt the market gods. Lol
  • DF
    Douglas F.
    27 August 2020 @ 23:38
    Banks, really? https://mises.org/wire/how-cares-act-still-kicking-can
  • DD
    David D.
    27 August 2020 @ 23:18
    Great conversation. I got a lot from this.
  • RT
    Richard T.
    27 August 2020 @ 23:05
    Ash! Please stop with the trite "INTERESTING" cant.
  • CB
    Chris B.
    27 August 2020 @ 22:54
    The humility is refreshing. We've all been there but to state it publicly takes fortitude and courage. Thank you.
  • DG
    Dave G.
    27 August 2020 @ 22:29
    We have had demark 13's since July on the monthly, daily and yearly. Not a useful indicator IMHO