Daily Briefing – August 28, 2020

Published on
August 28th, 2020
Duration
31 minutes


Daily Briefing – August 28, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Haley Draznin, Ash Bennington, and Ed Harrison

Published on: August 28th, 2020 • Duration: 31 minutes

Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, react to the new U.S. consumer spending report out today from the Commerce Department. Despite gains for three consecutive months, momentum fell as the COVID-19 pandemic lingers and fiscal support dries up. They also discuss inflation rhetoric following yesterday's announcement from the Fed to keep interest rates lower for longer as well as the Fed's dual mandate and how they may need to retire the use of the Phillips Curve. Real Vision editor and reporter Haley Draznin is introduced for the first time to discuss her new role and what financial news stories she is keeping a close eye on.

Comments

Transcript

  • LK
    Lisa K.
    30 August 2020 @ 00:16
    Ash: Do yourself a favor get a carbon monoxide and gas detector ~$42 at Amazon. https://www.amazon.com/Nighthawk-Monoxide-Explosive-Digital-KN-COEG-3/dp/B0002EVNJ6/?tag=cb-global-20 So if this happens again you can be notified sooner. Great insight on "knuckeheads" !
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      30 August 2020 @ 08:13
      Thanks, Lisa. It’s a very good idea!
    • MH
      Matthew H.
      2 September 2020 @ 08:42
      It Takes 2 guys at a wet market in China to have Bat Wing Soup and voila! 101 Knuckleheads
  • RM
    Russell M.
    31 August 2020 @ 15:55
    It seems to me that you can't really project the NEW NORMAL until we know whether a Covid solution that allows ending of social distancing. All you can do is track current behavior and implications for the next 6 months to a year if social distancing continues. The new Covid $5 15 minute test from Abbot could be a game changer to allow ending of social distancing. ihttps://abbott.mediaroom.com/2020-08-26-Abbotts-Fast-5-15-Minute-Easy-to-Use-COVID-19-Antigen-Test-Receives-FDA-Emergency-Use-Authorization-Mobile-App-Displays-Test-Results-to-Help-Our-Return-to-Daily-Life-Ramping-Production-to-50-Million-Tests-a-Month. So could an effective therapeutic combined with this testing breakthrough. Leronlimab shows therapeutic promise having nailed a Phase 2 trial on mild to moderate patients which implies it could stop progression of the disease to severe stage requiring hospitalization. https://www.cytodyn.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/458/cytodyn-announces-clinically-significant-top-line-results. If fear of hospitalization goes away, normal behavior could return. Return to normal is not a slam dunk but worth monitoring because Emergency Use Authorization was requested from FDA for leronlimab by Cytodyn more than 2 weeks ago. If granted, it could have tremendous economic impact.
  • DL
    David L.
    31 August 2020 @ 13:49
    Enjoy your current commentary, but would like to see it leavened, at least occasionally, with more from the financial history perspective. For example, governments have faced debt crises many times in the past. How were these crises resolved and, if similar actions were taken today, what would be the likely impact on modern markets and financial conditions. Past is prologue, as you might say.
  • AS
    Ananth S.
    30 August 2020 @ 04:53
    I would like to hear more on ETHEREUM projects, what people think about yield farming and how is it different or complimentary to existing financial system.
    • BA
      BURHANUDDIN A.
      31 August 2020 @ 07:17
      I second this. I especially would like to hear a predictive discussion on how DeFi will affect the incumbent financial & investment industry during the next 5 years. Yield farming & some of the underlying projects (Maker, Aave, Compound, Synthetix) will certainly disrupt at the very least the traditional fixed income & bond markets, especially due to the low rates there recently.
  • MA
    Mike A.
    31 August 2020 @ 05:45
    Ash.The Daily Briefing is perfect Love ED Roger Tony and of course Raoul Personally Here are the topics I want to see followed. 1. FED bond market/DXY/Financials 2.Unemployment situation/Policy 3 Election effects on markets 4 You guy's could have a performance sector evaluation at the end of the week to see where the cracks might start? 5 Anything that look out of the ordinary (an example would be the SKEW chart) for the week or day There are a few.Keep up the great work guys!!
  • MM
    Mamakgooa M.
    31 August 2020 @ 04:47
    Hi Ash...I am glad to see a woman join the team.
  • mB
    marc B.
    31 August 2020 @ 03:26
    I want to hear and learn more about the innovative areas of the world: crypto, blockchain, software, crypto mining, gene editing, biotech not covid, education tech, renewable energy, cannabis, battery tech.
  • RK
    Ron K.
    30 August 2020 @ 22:28
    Would one to learn about investing in emerging markets. At a high level for novices and more detail for those who have the experience. Go around the world with your views.
  • OE
    Ozan E.
    30 August 2020 @ 19:37
    Would love to see Warren Mosler again on Realvision!
  • CD
    Carl D.
    30 August 2020 @ 17:16
    Not sure if this is appropriate for RVDB, but lots of people talk about how we're heading down the road of Japanification, small spreads for banks so they can't make money, lacy hunt's idea of how excess debt weighs down on growth within a country, bad demographics leading to inability to create inflation... I get all those ideas, but is there more too it? I'd be curious to hear from experts on the Japanese economy, history, and banks if it's quasi assumed that's america's future.
  • RP
    Richard P.
    30 August 2020 @ 15:16
    Would love to hear from Charles Hoskinson again
  • JR
    Jacob R.
    30 August 2020 @ 11:42
    Hi, I would like to hear about 1) How banking and money actually works. Someone like Warren Mosler. 2) A futures trader and how they manage risk 3) A quantitative analyst and how they look at cross-correlation
  • CF
    Carlos F.
    30 August 2020 @ 06:55
    It was great seeing Ash on the Smart Contract Summit today. Would love to hear more content on the crypto space specifically projects like Chainlink
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      30 August 2020 @ 08:15
      Thanks, Carlos. How did the panel come across? I thought the panel guests were great — but I was having a hard time hearing all of their answers because of tech problems on the backend with the system.
  • ES
    Evgeny S.
    30 August 2020 @ 05:32
    It would be good to get a deeper analysis of EMs - China, Russia and Brazil in particular.
  • II
    Ivan I.
    30 August 2020 @ 05:01
    We are in uncharted territory with central bank intervention and government intervention in the asset markets. How does that impact our data gathering? Our old models have inputs that are no longer relevant and what new data points should we focus our attention on?
  • II
    Ivan I.
    30 August 2020 @ 05:01
    We are in uncharted territory with central bank intervention and government intervention in the asset markets. How does that impact our data gathering? Our old models have inputs that are no longer relevant and what new data points should we focus our attention on?
  • DS
    David S.
    29 August 2020 @ 23:59
    When will the DB go back behind the paywall as it should be?
    • AC
      Alexi C.
      30 August 2020 @ 03:58
      T
    • AC
      Alexi C.
      30 August 2020 @ 03:58
      My guess is when it isn’t valuable converting people to the higher tiered plans. The freemium model is how all other content is currently working so I would assume that would be the case here.
  • AS
    Alan S.
    29 August 2020 @ 06:11
    Ed, I have a question! Real estate is going crazy, both in the US and UK but why? The way you guys talk all the time, unemployment could well get much worse as the Fed stops propping up the economy. A few months or a year from now there could easily be another housing crash, a la 2008-09. Why not wait till then? After all, all the signs are that interest rates will stay so low. Love you guys each day, especially Ash's dramatic intros - THIS IS THE DAILY BRIEFING!
    • RR
      Ryan R.
      30 August 2020 @ 01:55
      Been wondering about this too. One factor could be price stickiness. But I really keep wondering if the residential industry is controlling the rate of new listings somehow.
  • DS
    David S.
    29 August 2020 @ 23:54
    Oy. Thank God for the hand-off segment to Ed. I know where CNBC is on my dial.
  • NM
    Nicholas M.
    29 August 2020 @ 22:46
    G
  • BA
    Bob A.
    29 August 2020 @ 21:47
    Welcome to Haley. I missed seeing Raoul. I hope he will be back next Friday.
  • SL
    Steven L.
    29 August 2020 @ 21:04
    Any chance you can look into having Ed interview David Bezic, a macro researcher (twitter handle @junkbond2000) just listened to him on the Market Huddle (Episode #94) his view on the Fed, fed balance sheet, monetary and fiscal policy and MMT is totally non-mainstream but makes absolute sense. Thanks for checking.
  • TL
    Tim L.
    29 August 2020 @ 20:11
    After the GFC, the Fed lowered interest rates with the hope of spurring investment, > So why did so many companies decline to invest, preferring to make share buybacks? My suspicion is that no one wants to invest in an over-indebted consumer. > So why should this time be different? Roger Hirst and Raoul have made reference to this theme in the past. (Raoul: Mal Investment)
  • JK
    Johan K.
    29 August 2020 @ 19:28
    I'd like to see more guests from the bullish side of the market. Everyone seems to be bearish but the market keeps pumping. So who are the bulls? Bring them on RV and let them tell us why they are buying. One person I'd like to see interviewed from the bullish side is Cathy Wood from ARK.
  • BO
    Bistrin O.
    29 August 2020 @ 18:22
    Love Haley's to-the-point answers, awesome! Welcome to the team!
  • OE
    Ozan E.
    29 August 2020 @ 14:45
    Content campaign idea: Banks
    • DL
      Dan L.
      29 August 2020 @ 17:55
      I’d like to second banks as a topic, and also financial plumbing more generally. Repo markets. Fed reserve accounts. Rates as a function of proximity to the Fed. What are the assumptions that people make concerning functioning markets, where can things break down, and what do these scenarios look like?
  • DB
    Donna B.
    29 August 2020 @ 17:27
    Insightful conversation about the Phillips curve and inflation. Love the wonky stuff. Thanks guys.
  • CS
    Christopher S.
    29 August 2020 @ 17:00
    The "one knucklehead" lesson is a useful lesson to remember. Thanks!
    • CS
      Christopher S.
      29 August 2020 @ 17:06
      who r u
  • OM
    Owen M.
    29 August 2020 @ 16:54
    residential housing update please: demographic shifts, renting v buyers, cities v rural, tier 1 cities v smaller cities, etc.
  • RG
    Reon G.
    29 August 2020 @ 16:12
    Would like to know more of how things outside of the U.S. would react, EM countries in particular.
  • GS
    Gary S.
    28 August 2020 @ 23:20
    Inflation is under 2% ?? I guess if we keep repeating a lie we eventually believe it. I have not seen one bill or essential household item go up by just 2% p.a
    • LF
      Liam F.
      29 August 2020 @ 05:22
      Agreed. A lot of things are inflating and by way more than 2%. Food packages getting a lot smaller and prices higher. Just re-upped a magazine subscription and it was up $10 / year. Major medical expenses up. Housing prices up (in desirable locations).
    • PU
      Peter U.
      29 August 2020 @ 16:00
      land is nearly experiencing hyperinflation like characteristics
  • JP
    Jay P.
    29 August 2020 @ 15:20
    Why’s the book is she mentioning ?
  • OE
    Ozan E.
    29 August 2020 @ 14:38
    I believe QE has killed the inflation
  • MS
    Michael S.
    29 August 2020 @ 13:55
    Ash and Ed, thanks for your insight and diligence. I really appreciate the updates on the latest relevant news and the not so apparent data that is available but not always front and center. Digging deep is why I like real vision. Working in some of the points of the interviews and viewpoints that are recently posted is also valuable to me. I can then see some real application into the current market conditions. Example is that if QE is increased then liquidity is actually coming out of the market place as pointed out by Steven Van Metre. The Fed just had a shift in direction but what does the Fed really have left in the quiver? Is it just talk? When we hear the Fed is printing and markets just go up is this really what is happening? Or are reserves just being increased to handle loan losses at Banks? Markets get a story going that is sometimes is wrong or is “over played”. I like to hear these challenges to the narrative that Wall Street is selling to the masses. Keep up the good work. Look forward to daily briefing every day! Have a great weekend. Mike Schoendorf
  • JL
    John L.
    29 August 2020 @ 13:50
    Happy to have you aboard, Haley! Great to hear things worked out ok, Ash, and hats off to the first responders for being there so quickly and getting the job done. Thumbs down to the knucklehead neighbor. Some really good suggestions on new content below. Maybe some sessions on economic history and key financial market moments? Perhaps a play by play of what actually happened, how things played out in the charts, lessons learned on crowd behavior, who won and who didn't, comparison to today-ish. They'd make great additions for the archives. Thanks for the great service, RV. Someday all this craziness will make for a great market moment episode.
  • SB
    Samuel B.
    29 August 2020 @ 02:52
    Work on allowing app to work in the background!
    • WM
      W M.
      29 August 2020 @ 03:39
      If I want to listen while I use other apps, I just download the audio file. You might see if that works for you too. Cheers.
    • BR
      Ben R.
      29 August 2020 @ 13:46
      Press play in the control centre on iPhone and it will play audio in the background. No need to download
  • EH
    Erik H.
    29 August 2020 @ 13:29
    I’d love to see Lynn Alden on RVDB.
    • BR
      Ben R.
      29 August 2020 @ 13:39
      Yes! That would be so good!!
  • NC
    Nick C.
    29 August 2020 @ 13:35
    Want to hear about residential real estate market
  • OT
    Omar T.
    29 August 2020 @ 13:30
    Please get her a proper studio mic like Ash :)
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    29 August 2020 @ 11:44
    Welcome Haley. I few ideas I'd like to see covered in depth: 1) In a stagflationary environment, do real estate and stock perform well? Before you jump to an answer on this, there is a lot of conflicting opinions and data on this. To me it looks like they outperform near the beginning then under perform near the end. 2) I'd like to hear opinions on how best to trade (or what to trade) if/when the Fed moves to yield curve control. They have indicated they have little interest in doing so, however we should never listen to what politicians and central bankers say, but what they do. Often the two are very different. So, if they do move to control the yield curve, can we put on a basis trade? If so, how and what instruments would work best? 3) In the dot com bubble, there were a lot of stocks that were undoubtedly over valued by multiples. Now, there seem to be many similar stocks. On a blind evaluation (ie not knowing the market price), I'd estimate the value of Tesla at about $25 (pre split). Even Elon Musk says it is over valued at $900 (pre split). It is now $2200 (pre split). What I would love is to get some interviews of people who made money shorting the dot com bubble, eg Cisco Systems. What were the lessons learned? When did they start to short? Did they do so buy shorting the stock, the index, or buying puts or selling calls? This is an important topic for now.
  • GH
    Guy H.
    29 August 2020 @ 10:58
    Next big theme should be climate. What it’s doing to transport, energy, geopolitics, food security, financial markets - just to name a few. Other than Bloomberg Green I don’t see any serious media tackling it. Trolls and denialists would doubtless be out in force - probably at the same time playing TSLA from the long side. It’s easily as big an issue as the retirement crisis is right now and will likely be magnitudes larger in the future. In 10 short years it could dominate forward looking markets. It should fit as neatly into RV’s focus on long run rational science and economics overlaid with short term market dynamics as BTC does.
  • CA
    Cyrus A.
    29 August 2020 @ 10:57
    Great RVDB with these two gents, as always. Interested in regular updates on EM markets and EM macro (for example dedicate 25-30% of discussion with someone who is plugged into Asia and EMs.) To my mind, if real growth is going to come from anywhere in the 2020s, it will be in EMs and Asia (demographics, realignment towards commodities, economic rebalancing, EMs out of the game since 2008 and due a return to the main stage). To the extent that it can be covered on RVDB, keeping tabs on the inflation or deflation narrative, CBDCs, being on top of the US$ story and covering alternative asset classes (real estate, precious metals, land etc) would be valuable. Thank you
  • MJ
    Marc J.
    29 August 2020 @ 05:59
    Ed, I don't think it's the new normal yet. I see it as a big spike leading to oscillations, slowly decreasing in amplitude over time. Once the oscillations have decreased enough, then we'll be able to see what the new normal is.
    • MJ
      Marc J.
      29 August 2020 @ 08:30
      In terms of content, I basically want a bullshit free news channel, without the silly graphics and false excitement.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    29 August 2020 @ 06:36
    Welcome Haley - when she started to talk I thought she was going to be doing the RVDB. Looks like a great new incorporation to the company and looking forward to one RVDB of her in the future. Regarding your issue with the gas Ash, that was a serious issue and happy you are good and safe. Have a great weekend everyone.
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    29 August 2020 @ 06:15
    Welcome Haley!
  • BS
    Bryan S.
    29 August 2020 @ 06:10
    In terms of questions: most interested in EM, esp. Asia. Would like to hear some views on and from Singapore on the topic. Thank you
  • PS
    Paul S.
    29 August 2020 @ 05:16
    Thoughts on Fed Coins and the digital dollar? Some say S&P 5000 after a breather, if so where to invest in an already overpriced market. As the saying goes, go with the momentum, not against it.
  • FC
    Frank C.
    29 August 2020 @ 05:00
    It would be worthwhile to do a dive deep into Bonds. I think I understand the dollar narrative cases, but what’s lacking are more perspectives on macro framework and impact of global sovereign bonds. I’m still confused on short term and long term duration and how it impacts the dollar, economy, stock market, global markets, etc. If you do do bonds, please add the whole yield farming stuff in crypto. My gut is telling me if bond yields stay low for longer, investors are going to chase yield through crypto yield farming. For instance, as a 30 something who wants to have a small cash reserve, why not take the risk and get 8+% in USDC stable coin versus my 0.0001% savings account? Thanks for all the great content!
  • NG
    Nick G.
    29 August 2020 @ 04:12
    Hey Haley! Great job on your first go around!!! Loved ur segment and you'll fit right in!
  • SW
    Suzanne W.
    29 August 2020 @ 04:02
    Where's Jack?
  • TC
    Tim C.
    29 August 2020 @ 04:00
    Please do a deep dive on inflation. Causes, measurement, portfolio positioning, etc. It seems like that is the greatest debate among macro allocators. Inflation vs deflation over the next decade plus
  • PB
    Patrick B.
    29 August 2020 @ 03:45
    Freaky story Ash and glad you’re okay. I’ve had an absolute fear of the gas hob since my parents told me how dangerous it was as a kid... And heard stories of people dying with gas canisters in tents while camping. Always super careful about turning gas on and off. Reassured to hear this fear hasn’t been misplaced...
  • WS
    William S.
    29 August 2020 @ 01:07
    Bummer ! Methane - got workmans comp!
    • sc
      sung c.
      29 August 2020 @ 01:22
      That raises up a question. Would it be covered by workman's comp if the accident happened at home?
    • RA
      Robert A.
      29 August 2020 @ 03:30
      Sung c, excellent point...the underwriters are working on it as of this moment—the work from home World may have WC insurance implications.
  • AL
    Aaron L.
    29 August 2020 @ 03:22
    Deeper dive into all the factors that cause inflation ie; demographics, debt, wage/commodity push, private bank lending, central banks increasing assets etc. so how these all go into the mix and how to make sense of it all would be great. It also ties into the topic of how to think about real interest rates. Cheers
  • JD
    Jesse D.
    29 August 2020 @ 03:12
    I personally just like the macro rundown of the day. It’s surprisingly hard to find that. Half hour, everyday of everything macro. I also miss how Roger made calls on what he thinks will happen next. Bold calls are intriguing even tough we don’t have to agree with them. Raol also does a good job at making calls, I don’t want/need picks but I do find them interesting.
  • PB
    Paul B.
    29 August 2020 @ 02:57
    I reckon late October early November she all Bows up!
  • DK
    David K.
    29 August 2020 @ 02:57
    DK Fed management? Good luck. 3.5% unemployment due to Baby Boomer wave cresting. Old guys like me retiring in mass. AI, automation etc. won't leave room for such a low unemployment rate going forward. Homework for you: look at Raoul's segment on demographics!
  • RM
    Robert M.
    29 August 2020 @ 02:34
    Future topics (posted this on the wrong daily briefing so reposting): 1. Parabolic markets. Which ones fairly reflect the future and which ones are temporary. Industries like EV, e-commerce, semiconductors (particularly with China accelerating in-house development), homebuilding/home improvement (LOW, HD, SHW, TREX), metals/commodities, streaming services/media (Netflix/Disney/Apple/CBSViacom/Spotify/SiriusXM), cloud/SAS (Amazon/Google/Salesforce). These are all industries that have seen their futures possibly rewritten since March and stock prices rise accordingly. 2. Recovery themes. With the uncertainty around the virus, discussing timing and potential of various themes like hotels, airlines, cruise lines, amusement parks, concerts (Live Nation), energy, banks, commercial real estate. Particularly interested on thoughts on NYC REITs as the city's survival is debated. Could be some money to be made here, but all industries will not recover on the same timeline. 3. Overseas Markets. Which economies are recovering faster from the virus. As outsourcing moves from China, what countries may benefit? If dollar weakens or strengthens, what are the best plays to diversify out of US? 4. Surviving inflation. If the Fed is successful in achieving +2% inflation, strategies for protecting your portfolio. What worked in Weimar Germany? Late 1970s in US? Bitcoin and gold have been discussed on RV, what are other strategies? We seem to be at a juncture of a recovered stock market that is somewhat narrow in breadth, battered recovery industries hoping to rebound, a weakening dollar, rising gold, a struggling US economy and possible diversification to stronger EM markets. Next 2 months will be enlightening on the US recovery, the election results, and the interest rate curve. So above macro themes may be interesting to position portfolios before positive or negative turns in markets.
  • SB
    Steve B.
    29 August 2020 @ 01:29
    there is also the 3rd dimension (as ash briefly mentioned) of technological change affecting structural unemployment. traditional and collaborative robotics and automation can eliminate jobs and put downward pressure on wages. training and retraining on new technologies also can be disruptive to the labor market as less people are qualified for jobs in higher demand
    • ER
      Eric R.
      29 August 2020 @ 02:05
      India might be helpful, but I think Steve B. has the topic I'd like to explore. I went away to college right when interest rates were at an all time high. At college, I migrated from using punch cards on an IBM mainframe to an IBM PC. It seems to me that Moore's law has been an underlying factor in the bond market, deflation or the lack of inflation, productivity, etc. What are the big picture technological trends that we aren't thinking about but need to be? Not work from home. I saw on twitter where the Navy is teaching navigation with a sextant, what technology is driving that scary shift. Lasers that can destroy satellites? Where will genetics be in 10 years and can we invest along side this trend. In a world of debt, some of this technological innovation might require a large investment, but there may be slices that don't and that might be very valuable. Technological trends for the next 10+ years is my vote. And to entice Raoul, blockchain could be one of them....
  • LF
    Lisa F.
    29 August 2020 @ 01:55
    Would it be ok to leave the graphs up a little longer?
  • DR
    Danilo R.
    29 August 2020 @ 01:54
    Welcome Haley. I like your just the facts mindset. Hopefully, you can add insights to the ESG equity trend.
  • AJ
    Adam J.
    29 August 2020 @ 01:52
    18:33 remaining - almost sounded like Ash was breaking out into a rap!
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    29 August 2020 @ 01:51
    Looks like Haley positioned her camera to emulate Raoul's "studio" in the Caymans. Clearly not the same place, but the atmosphere looks similar. Welcome on board Haley!
  • AT
    ALAN T.
    29 August 2020 @ 00:26
    I would like more content on what the fed really does and what effects they truly have. The interview today with Brent Johnson and Steven Van Metre was compelling and elicited some great counterpoints and questions in the comments. I'm aware of John Hussman calling QE an asset swap and I believe it was Hussman contending that the Phillips curve was flawed from the outset and wasn't even intended for its application as the Fed uses it, Jeff Snider calling QE basically a puppet show and that the Fed is the emperor with no clothes. Lacy Hunt saying QE doesn't produce inflation. Jim Rickards points out how inaccurate their predictions are (as do others such as Raoul) and that the models they use (closed system) are an embarrassment in the scientific community. Often it seems they are following the bond market when rates are adjusted rather than the opposite. I'd like to get closer to the bottom of it all.
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      29 August 2020 @ 00:34
      Not a chance, Alan. They've gotten to Real Vision and you'll need to look elsewhere. I suggest freedomplatform.tv
    • RM
      Robert M.
      29 August 2020 @ 01:42
      Freedomplatform.tv. Funny. Talk about getting a one way view of the world. As investors, need open minds.
  • RA
    Ravi A.
    28 August 2020 @ 22:53
    I will recommend getting an expert for discussion on Indian Economy.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      28 August 2020 @ 23:32
      Good idea - did you have anyone specific in mind?
    • CM
      Cory M.
      28 August 2020 @ 23:47
      I believe if you're not a native of India, you cannot invest in the market, so that would be less interesting than, say, Korea or Singapore or Scandinavian countries.
    • RA
      Ravi A.
      29 August 2020 @ 00:36
      @Jack So I believe some of the things that can be interesting to know can be are India's demonetization experiment which slowed the GDP growth and some day some other country can try, India's Make in India initiative which should have been success given country demographics but hasn't been till now. Once this business cycle completes, I know Raoul is very bullish on India because of demographics. But, India's demographics has been strong for a long time, why things will change now? India' currency has depreciated more than 50 percent in last 10 years. How much bad it can go from here? India's inflation rate which has been on average approx 5 percent, will India see inflation or deflation for next few years? Which will be better for the country, I believe it will be inflation, will it? India's banks have a lot of bad loans, one of their largest private bank (Yes bank) recently had a lot of issues. Discussion can be about India's banking sector. India's growing unemployment crisis and how de-globalization can impact India can be another point. India's central government policies, I recently read that India's central govt asked states to directly borrow from central bank, which I am not sure if it same as Fed buying municipal bonds. There has been some reluctance of central government to borrow more. India's real estate has given great returns in last 2-3 decades. How things will be looking forward? I own some real estate in India, I was not sure if it is a good time to get rid of it or keep it?
    • HD
      Haley D. | Real Vision
      29 August 2020 @ 01:07
      What about MasterCard CEO Ajay Banga?
    • RA
      Ravi A.
      29 August 2020 @ 01:38
      @Haley The best person I can think of is Raghuram Rajan, Ex Governor of RBI (India's Central Bank). I have seen him on CNBC as guest, may be he might be willing to discuss these topics on real vision.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    29 August 2020 @ 01:38
    Morale of the story is to invest in a carbon monoxide detector. Inexpensive solution to the knucklehead.
  • RR
    Ryan R.
    29 August 2020 @ 01:34
    Topic idea: I read Flash Boys over a year ago and it opened my eyes to the impact of Hight Frequency Trading on the market and volatility. So, HFT trends and future impact. Lots of sub-topics to explore here: dark pools, order flows, history, exchanges, order types, SEC rules, brokerage comparisons, machine learning, biggest players and benefactors. I heard they are making a movie of Flash Boys which should make the topic even more popular.
  • AM
    Alexander M.
    29 August 2020 @ 01:19
    Hi guys, I realize I am listening to two very intelligent men. I realize at times how out of depth I am. However, I strongly feel we are on a runaway train that different drivers have jumped off for their own well being, and we are now left with a color blind individual that can't distinguish green flags to red ones. It would seem like he has his hand on both the accelerator and the brake at the same time. With the possibility of a 100 mph. express hitting from behind that has a " Black Swan " nameplate on it. The future is anyone's guess. Even the safe havens seem a tad too easy to buy into, But is there an alternative. Only history will tell. So, what are you guys favoring? I wonder.
    • sc
      sung c.
      29 August 2020 @ 01:21
      Keep riding the train but keep one foot out the door ready to jump off any second.
  • sc
    sung c.
    29 August 2020 @ 01:20
    Wow! What a scary story Ash. Good thing you're not a smoker, I've heard it can kill you. :)
  • WS
    William S.
    29 August 2020 @ 01:15
    All of the Feds programs in particular Treasury ops are deflationary by the nature of the way they work - L Hunt et al. Listen to a recent pod on Grant williams podcast - worth its weight in gold. Great historical perspective...
  • TB
    Tobin B.
    29 August 2020 @ 00:42
    Good move on the guest blurb RV :thumbsup:
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      29 August 2020 @ 00:46
      Recommended content - more asking viewers what they want. Tried and proven successful business model
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      29 August 2020 @ 00:51
      Ash I do like your numerical summaries. - you're good at that and its appreciated
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      29 August 2020 @ 01:02
      Wow the Philips Curve is a crock of shit thanks Ed
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      29 August 2020 @ 01:12
      Thanks for the vibes gents have a great weekend!
  • WS
    William S.
    29 August 2020 @ 01:09
    EM Asia, Commodities, Geo-politics China /South China Sea, Energy
  • RL
    Ruby L.
    29 August 2020 @ 01:00
    More on global views and won’t technology advance the standard of living for everyone as productivity increases with increased use of technology due to the virus? Eg. Meetings online more productive than the time, money and effort to meet in person
  • PD
    Paul D.
    29 August 2020 @ 00:57
    More EM content would be cool. Asia, Africa, Eastern europe, it's a big world!
  • MS
    Michael S.
    29 August 2020 @ 00:38
    Dollar seems to be driving all (?) markets right now. Recommend dollar content campaign.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    29 August 2020 @ 00:15
    I’m going to 2nd Ravi’s ask. Can you find the Asia version of Roger Hirst. It would be great to get Roger’s EU macro view but for Asia. I follow Trihnomics on Twitter. Based in HKG. Remind me of Remi / Roger with her data macro view. It would be neat to have a weekend RVD on Asia taped Friday morning and hosted by Max, Peter, Nick, or Jack. Release it on Saturday 6pm. Perhaps the guy from Austin in Ash’s role also. I’d like to see him in Ash’s role instead of Ed’s
    • MS
      Mark S.
      29 August 2020 @ 00:35
      Also wouldn’t mind seeing a monthly home/away with the Hedgeye guys.
  • LG
    Lisa G.
    29 August 2020 @ 00:17
    TOPIC IDEA: I think many of us RV'ers will have an interest in the new normal of residential real estate. Whether we own homes, or are looking for a good entry point, or are involved in rental investing or REITs...seems like there's something for everyone. And likely enough topics to merit its own content campaign. With rent strikes, mortgage moratoriums, urban exodus and hints of tightening loan conditions, there is a long list of interesting topics here, many of which likely have big domino effects. On that note, would also love to hear an update from Keith Jurow on what he sees happening with the high % of restructured (pronounced "defaulted") mortgages updated for today's landscape.
    • DM
      Dominic M.
      29 August 2020 @ 00:24
      I would also like to see residential real estate become more part of the RV discussion.
  • RD
    Riki D.
    29 August 2020 @ 00:23
    Its unlikely despite all the political fanfare about a vaccine, we will have one soon enough to stop the daily death rate, which is 1k per day. That is unless there's suddenly a change in the behaviour of people to manage it. That doesn't necessarily mean shutting down the economy, but just the sensible application commonsense. Inflammation is the root cause of COVID19 deaths or ARDS, which is the main cause of death in influenza. Therapies are the most likely early fix for this issue and in particular given the population will need an annual vaccine to account for the change in pathology of the virus - similar to influenza. 40-60k deaths in the USA pa from influenza. You can add someting similar for COVID19 once an effective and safe vaccine is in place. Some interesting analysis. https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/48409492-wombat777/5485825-mesoblast-upside-from-covidminus-19-ards-and-ards
  • RC
    Robert C.
    29 August 2020 @ 00:07
    RV staff, would love to hear more about markets outside of the US and European markets as a change of pace. I found the deep dive that Raoul did about 3 years ago on India very interesting, it would be good to get some coverage in Asia, Oceania, and possibly Africa?
  • TN
    Thomas N.
    28 August 2020 @ 23:57
    Loved the session today - you guys getting lost in the material, riffing on the Philips curve. Fun and instructive! Who would I like to hear interviewed? I'd like to hear from a 'trading coach' on how to keep the emotionality out of investment decisions. Ideally someone in the game who really struggled but found ways to get rational and successful. Thanks again for the engaging conversation today. Tom N.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    28 August 2020 @ 23:52
    I like the content ideas mentioned. I would like also to see: 1. the difference between how boomers and millennials invest. (eg Haley and Tyler are so equity bullish, unlike everyone else; what's that about?). 2. I would appreciate way to make more sense of the future of the dollar (eg the Brent / Steve conversation this week was fascinating, but I need help understanding them and hearing others weigh in). Not just the 'dollar milkshake' but the entire global context of it. 3. Better understanding of interest rate futures and the future of interest rates. Glad you're okay, Ash. Stay off the water slide as well.
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    28 August 2020 @ 23:47
    In terms of questions: What is the consensus thinking on demographic changes in spending habits? I'm not talking spending vs. saving (which is also important), I'm talking changes in purchases. If I'm not buying air tix this year, am I buying more consumer electronics (phones, etc) because I'm in lockdown? At target, purchases of electronics were up 70%. I would guess two main drivers were TV and phone upgrades?
  • JT
    Joe T.
    28 August 2020 @ 22:47
    Gentlemen, The area I am most confused about is the wide divergence of opinion on deflation or inflation. Roaul is now predicting insolvency and massive 1930s deflation. David Rosenberg is proclaiming we are in a 1930s depression, but seems to be on the fence as to if it is a deflation or an inflation environment. He ultimately believes we are going into stagflation, low GDP grow with inflation. Then there is Jared Dillian who is "all in" on run away inflation. Your thoughts.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      28 August 2020 @ 22:57
      The point is, no one knows!
    • LS
      Lewis S.
      28 August 2020 @ 23:41
      There seems to be an element of chaos in all this that means the situation could lurch in radically different directions without warning, like a falling die. Maybe the better question is how do we be prepared for more than one eventuality?
  • ZM
    Zane M.
    28 August 2020 @ 23:40
    Always great content RV! - Perhaps an episode ranging through the macro of post-election results, Or - how the drop- off in consumer spending may impact businesses post Christmas season. TY
  • KP
    Krishna P.
    28 August 2020 @ 22:41
    I know there is a lot of skepticism and cynicism about Tesla. I would invite everyone to read/watch Cathie Wood's work (Ark Investments) on Tesla. While it feels like we are living at a time when the gilded age, the great depression and the spanish flu (Fourth Turning) are occurring at the same time, it may be that the new world companies will bring the urgently needed drastic change.
    • PB
      Paul B.
      28 August 2020 @ 22:45
      Yeah electric Cars and Rockets will solve all out Problems
    • GS
      Gary S.
      28 August 2020 @ 23:26
      CW price targets for Tesla were out to 2025. What is happening to Tesla right now is a pump that has nothing to do with Tesla or Elon. Noone can argue that they dont make the best EVs. Maybe in 10 years that wont be the case, maybe in 10 years EVs will be dead, but right now there is no better EV manufacturer on the planet and anyone who claims Ford or Audi make a better EV do not understand the product,
  • RH
    Ron H.
    28 August 2020 @ 23:24
    It's great the FED has finally begun to recognize their culpability in creating inequality, and socio-political volatility and instability over the past several decades (which is virtually certain to rear up again in the coming months). It reminds me of Robert McNamara in the "Fog of War", finally coming to terms at the end of his life with the fundamental error of his technocratic management of the Vietnam War. It's some resolution in a historical sense, but what more? What can the FED actually do about it at this point? How can they force banks or other lenders to create credit for the real economy, to get it functioning above an anemic level? Does more unsustainable credit even make sense given where we are at this point in the debt supercycle? It appears they need a functioning Congress to serve as a handmaiden of their policies if they are to be effectual economically. But they can't make Congress functional on their own, not least because they were instrumental to its destabilization, which effectively means they are not in control.
  • AF
    Alex F.
    28 August 2020 @ 23:17
    First time I've seen you in anything but checkered shirt ash. Gas must have gone to your head.
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    28 August 2020 @ 23:03
    In a flat GDP growth environment institutions need to still chase yield, private equity and special purpose acquisition company space will probably see high flows. I would like to see a show about special purpose acquisition companies.
  • DS
    David S.
    28 August 2020 @ 22:27
    Welcome Ms. Draznin to the RVTV team. DLS