Daily Briefing – August 3, 2020

Published on
August 3rd, 2020
Duration
30 minutes


Daily Briefing – August 3, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Nick Correa, Ash Bennington, and Ed Harrison

Published on: August 3rd, 2020 • Duration: 30 minutes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to reckon with the idea of whether a COVID-19 vaccine will be the "medical bailout" everyone is staking their hopes on. Ash and Ed give an overview of where many major nations are currently in their battle against the pandemic and consider if this new normal is truly sustainable in the long-term. They also discuss the continued move toward a virtual world, how this is an omen of absolute collapse in certain industries, and how the pandemic has become a politically charged subject in the midst of a US election cycle. In the intro, Nick Correa shares some of the data from the Household Pulse Survey, revealing the ways fiscal stimulus has made up a portion of aggregate spending for American consumers.

Comments

Transcript

  • RT
    Richard T.
    3 August 2020 @ 23:02
    Why not utter the D-word (death) when reporting on the virus?
    • EH
      Espen H.
      5 August 2020 @ 22:19
      Interesting that very, very few are talking about excess death, instead of hyping the "crisis", number of infections raising etc
  • BB
    Bob B.
    5 August 2020 @ 02:35
    https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/08/03/world/europe/03reuters-health-coronavirus-fallout.html COVID-19 Long-Term Toll Signals Billions in Healthcare Costs Ahead
  • RD
    Riki D.
    4 August 2020 @ 00:19
    Theraputics is likely to be a significant contributor to the overall solution spectrum. Mesoblast is nearing the end of its FDA approved and NIH sponsored CVODI19 Phase2/3 trials, with an inital data call out early Sept. It is potentially the ultimate backstop as it targets the sickiest ventilated patients. It targets Cytokine Storms which is a cause of death in COVID19 patients, by modulating their immune systems. Because inflammation is one of the significant underlying risks with these patients, it also has the potential to minimise the secondary issues to other organs, which research has started to confirm is a major problem in a large percentage of the COVID19 population, ie. vesicular blood clots in the heart, brain, etc. Its lead product (which is the same as above but for GVHD in children, the mother of all inflammation) is due for FDA fast track review 13th Aug (initial recommendation or not) before being sent to the FDA for final approval. Many years of phase 1,2,3 data on safety and efficacy sitting behind the granting of a FDA fast track review of their biologic license application.
    • BB
      Bob B.
      4 August 2020 @ 02:06
      I've been concerned that too much emphasis has been on body counts. Don't get me wrong, deaths are horrific and often tragic. However the longterm health issues from the clotting issues and oxygen deprivation are stunning. If significant portions of those contracting COVID-19 (and potentially more than once) develop long lasting and important health issues there could be generational impacts. Additionally Cytokine storms wreck havoc on our immune systems and I have heard reports that previously re missive diseases re-emerge. Hopefully your comments on treatments ring true.
    • RM
      Russell M.
      4 August 2020 @ 04:36
      Leronlimab is way ahead of Mesonladt having finished its mild to moderate symptoms placebo controlled trial. Results look promising and final analysis due next week. See CytoDyn.com for details. It is also easier to administer, just a shot rather than IV, and leronlimab has more mechanisms of action. See the interview of Dr Bruce Patterson referenced in my earlier post. Also, Mesoblast is $20k per treatment I believe vs $1,200 for leronlimab.
    • RD
      Riki D.
      4 August 2020 @ 22:12
      Re: Leronlimab. Putting my non investor hat on, all I can say is lets hope its effective for the sake of those who find themselves on the wrong side of this significant event - usually those who can least afford to manage it. Investor hat back on. Thats obviously a fairly large claim and would require a indepth discussion on who is sponsoring the trial, the trial design and end points for efficacy, etc. As stated above, Mesoblast is focused on the worst cases, not mild to moderate cases. Additionally, if they are successful then the off label opportunity (without sounding opportunitistic) is influenza, which kills a significant number of people globally each year. A biotech sector in its infancy. I guess we will know soon and until then people can do their own research on both.
  • LC
    Lee C.
    4 August 2020 @ 19:51
    Good luck with that vaccine thing. Also good luck with that 9 month time frame. I have a friend who got it, recovered, got it again and continues sick. This is an example of full strength live vaccination which failed to provide any immunity. Also 78% of asymptomatics to mildly symptomatics when their hearts were tested showed cardiac inflammation post infection. If the mortality doesn't get you the morbidity will. Happy days are not here again.
  • SS
    S S.
    3 August 2020 @ 22:12
    I'm drunk already. Credit goes to creditwritedowns.com
    • DS
      David S.
      4 August 2020 @ 00:38
      I started doing shots an hour before the DB started....what do I win?
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      4 August 2020 @ 17:06
      Pfft, that’s easy mode. Try taking a shot every time someone says ‘bifurcation’
  • DH
    Derek H.
    4 August 2020 @ 01:27
    We have not been able to come up with a vaccine for 30 years so coming up with one that actually works in the next couple of years is pretty low.
    • DL
      David L.
      4 August 2020 @ 11:26
      Just my personal opinion, but I think we'll have herd immunity before a vaccine is developed, tested and distributed.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      4 August 2020 @ 16:47
      Russian government says their vaccines will be ready and distributed in October
  • PB
    Paul B.
    4 August 2020 @ 01:20
    People in the USA spend more on Food than the Mortgage...No wonder they are all so overweight
    • BP
      Brijesh P.
      4 August 2020 @ 01:45
      Have you never had Tex-Mex?
    • GH
      Gabrielle H. | Real Vision
      4 August 2020 @ 15:07
      Paul, not every American has a mortgage -- but everyone needs food. In terms of what the HPS speaks to concerning the data on how people have spent or are spending their stimulus checks, it's probably more indicative of rising food insecurity in the US due to the pandemic and high unemployment. Feeding America, a nonprofit, hunger-relief organization, estimates that more than 54 million Americans may experience food insecurity this year, including potentially 18 million children, because of the pandemic. However, a lot of households who experience food insecurity don't qualify for federal nutrition programs. Since the beginning of the pandemic, food banks and pantries have both faced incredibly high demand and shortages of volunteers and supplies. Considering how many, many low-income households faced food insecurity prior to the pandemic but also are most impacted by this, it's no wonder that the majority of people are using at least a portion of those checks to buy food. https://www.wsj.com/articles/pandemic-growing-need-strain-u-s-food-bank-operations-11594891802
  • AP
    Alfonso P.
    4 August 2020 @ 14:52
    Thanks Ed and Ash, for this DB, please Ed check the data on Cozumel and Los Cabos, the two are examples of how they have dealt with the CV, of course there is the travel issue, but will you be safe enough traveling to other spots?
  • AT
    ALAN T.
    4 August 2020 @ 13:08
    Really good. Thanks.
  • PC
    Peter C.
    4 August 2020 @ 10:55
    It would be nice if RV could dig more in to some systemic (market structure) risks that are again boiling down the surface. Michael Green talks about a reduction in flows an the weakness this creates. At the same time, we start to see the risky short gamma trades again, in particular in tech (e.g. QQQ) that could trigger a major volatility burst if broken. I really would like to know if second liquidity event is probable or not and how it could play out. I know it may need an exogenous chock and not just a worsening of the economy (or sectors of it) but I think there are plenty of them on the horizon: issues with the stimulus plans, vaccine issues, China issues, election issues and, in particular, second wave dynamics that are not well understood by the market. The northern hemisphere has currently the best conditions to battle COVID (mostly outdoor activities & high temperatures which both reduce R0) but that will change in Sept-Oct. The impact of the R0 jumping "only" by 0.5 could have a dramatic impact, especially in those regions that did not contain COVID well during the summer and as such face potential hotbeds in many cities.
  • JW
    J W.
    4 August 2020 @ 10:16
    I am a fan of the daily briefing and I think I listened to most if not all of them but I have to ask to dail down the medical talk and increase the financial content. You guys are not doctors :-) and though I understand the linkage it is far more interesting to dive into the economic effects of the medical stats in Germany for example, than the discussion about these stats. Same with vaccine talk. You can summarize that in one or two sentences and move on. For the rest - excellent work, much appreciated. It has become my daily ritual,
  • SS
    Sheldon S.
    3 August 2020 @ 23:09
    I'm getting more than a little tired of COVID discussions . . .
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      3 August 2020 @ 23:54
      agree. so as not to bring a dead cat with no shovel, here are some ideas: paper silver position sizing EU raw commodity flows ocean shipping situation
    • CT
      Chris T.
      4 August 2020 @ 08:34
      its just one sided fear fear fear. Tried to encourage them multiple times to have the other side of the debate on but no traction yet. Unherd have the type of interview guests RealVision should be getting on if covering Covid to this extent https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUOFeVIrOPg
  • RN
    Robert N.
    4 August 2020 @ 07:30
    I noticed a trend in the use of the B word and had a look at usage of "bifurcation", "division" and "split" since why use four syllables when one will do. From Wikipedia, "a bifurcation occurs when a small smooth change made to the parameter values (the bifurcation parameters) of a system causes a sudden 'qualitative' or topological change in its behavior" and ""bifurcation" was first introduced by Henri Poincaré in 1885"" . WikiDiff adds some colour: https://wikidiff.com/split/bifurcate. Various sources indicate "branched" or "divided" as near synonyms for "bifurcated". Investopedia indicates a particular usage in corporate finance https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bifurcation.asp. Further refinements are given as: Saddle-node (fold) bifurcation Transcritical bifurcation Pitchfork bifurcation Period-doubling (flip) bifurcation Hopf bifurcation Neimark–Sacker (secondary Hopf) bifurcation Homoclinic bifurcation Heteroclinic bifurcation Infinite-period bifurcation Blue sky catastrophe in which a limit cycle collides with a nonhyperbolic cycle. Is all this talk of "bifurcation" on Realvision just conditioning us for the path to "blue sky catastrophe?
    • MW
      Matthew W.
      4 August 2020 @ 08:34
      That's funny. I was just about to Google "bifurcation". Sounds clever. I'm going to start using that word. 🙂
  • TN
    Tim N.
    4 August 2020 @ 07:57
    Shoutout from Melbourne, Australia :(:(
  • CT
    Chris T.
    4 August 2020 @ 07:51
    You really need to get Noble prize winning scientist Michael Levitt on here for an interview on covid-19
  • CT
    Chris T.
    4 August 2020 @ 07:51
    You really need to get Noble prize winning scientist Michael Levitt on here for an interview on covid-19
  • SS
    Shannon S.
    3 August 2020 @ 22:45
    Thing you guys are potentially not considering...how many people will actually take the vaccine? Personally I believe a large majority will decline to take it.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      3 August 2020 @ 22:48
      Hi, Shannon. That's a very good point.
    • MD
      Matt D.
      3 August 2020 @ 23:11
      The worrying thing is that it will be made mandatory.
    • JW
      Jeff W.
      4 August 2020 @ 02:18
      I have been thinking about that as well. It can take a long time to establish the efficacy of new drugs - am I going to rush out and take a half-proven vaccine? Probably not - I would rather change my lifestyle until it is proven for my age group.
    • mw
      michael w.
      4 August 2020 @ 06:55
      The effects of the vaccine will mostly be psychological for markets.
  • RO
    Rodrigo O.
    4 August 2020 @ 00:14
    About Sweden's methodology, I just want to add that cultural behavior needs to be taken into consideration if you want to extrapolate and apply it to other countries. The Nordic way of expression has already a social distancing factor. Just like most Asian cultures. And Germany too. That's one of the reasons they are better off. If you go to the other side of the coin and apply it to Italy "hug and kiss festival" way, Spain "welcoming with gusto" way, as of matter of fact, most Latin based cultures, it would be a MESS. The U.S. is a middle road, but would not be a pretty picture too.
    • EH
      Espen H.
      4 August 2020 @ 00:19
      Will add to that, from the Nordic perspective
    • mw
      michael w.
      4 August 2020 @ 06:53
      Also look at the demographics of the US.
  • EH
    Espen H.
    3 August 2020 @ 23:22
    It was interesting to hear Nordics getting on the radar. As a norwegian, the Nordics (Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland) all have different strategies, albeit Sweden the most "extreme" (and now probably the most successful, according to Bloomberg). Norway got into shutdown middle March. Newspapers had "wartime" headlines (red, big letters, crisis etc), but there are almost no mentions of COVID-19 in mass-media these days. Nowadays, mass-media worldwide is into wartime headlines...
    • EH
      Espen H.
      3 August 2020 @ 23:30
      The number to watch is the excess mortality rate, not the number of COVID-19 infections. The number of infections is probably the most dull and uninterested number to watch #partypooper
  • RM
    Russell M.
    3 August 2020 @ 23:08
    Vaccines will not save us for the new normal. Listen to Dr. Michael Osterholm at CIDRAP. There is a drug about to finish up its placebo controlled FDA trials. One of the most knowledgeable virologist/immunologist with respect to Covid 19, Dr. Bruce Patterson (formerly with Stanford), and this drug thinks it could end the need to social distance. Treatment is one shot a week for two weeks. Here is an interview with Dr. Patterson about this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=n9spx-4opMI
  • CN
    Charles N.
    3 August 2020 @ 23:06
    Very much enjoyed the discussion today, particularly Ed's metaphor of vaccine as a bailout meme in most people's minds. Would like to suggest that along with Ash's comment on better treatment modalities...we should keep in mind the long term costs around 'recovered' Covid-19 patients. Many of those who are discharged from hospitals are not necessarily free of physical complications. A certain percent return to hospital with strokes and heart attacks, another group we are finding are afflicted with vascular inflammation, diminished mentation, fatigue. It is one nasty bug and we still have a long way to go in our overall understanding of Covid-19 and its aftereffects. Totally agree with Ed's estimate of possibly two years to reach a "new normal" and, I believe, it is a time frame one should plan on.
  • TM
    The-First-James M.
    3 August 2020 @ 22:57
    I don't think the 'new normal' will prove sustainable in the absence of a vaccine. Western Societies are getting close to what must be some kind of breaking point. I already know of a friend of a work colleague's wife, who has committed suicide due to the situation in Melbourne. Can't believe that authoritarian clown, Daniel Andrews, has imposed a curfew (8pm - 5pm). Australia is a liberal democracy in name only now.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      3 August 2020 @ 22:58
      Sorry, that curfew time should have read 8pm - 5am.
  • JS
    John S.
    3 August 2020 @ 22:07
    These Daily Briefings are excellent.