Daily Briefing – August 4, 2020

Published on
August 4th, 2020
35 minutes

Daily Briefing – August 4, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Mike "Mish" Shedlock and Ash Bennington

Published on: August 4th, 2020 • Duration: 35 minutes

Senior editor Ash Bennington is joined by Mike "Mish" Shedlock of TheStreet.com to discuss gold and the looming fiscal cliff. Shedlock analyzes the purported "short squeeze" on gold, shining a light on the various players in the future as well as physical markets for gold during its ascendant rally. Bennington and Shedlock then analyze the dysfunction in Washington and gyrating asset markets through the lens of expiring unemployment benefits. Mish's work can be found at https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/.



  • DN
    Douglas N.
    10 January 2021 @ 22:31
    I and almost everyone I know has been expecting the market to tank 50% or 80% or 100% ever since the 2009 recovery when it looked doomsday was over but we were too traumatized to believe it. Some people have lived under this thesis for the last 12 years and paid a price for it. What I would like to ask Mish is, given the thesis perpetrated by all the big brains of macro that things have changed in some fundamental way since the GFC, why should we believe there will ever again be a correction of that magnitude? Isn't this possibly another Maginot line scenario?
  • JH
    Jess H.
    6 August 2020 @ 08:06
    Good guest, good interviewer who teed up good questions. Mish presented a framework for looking at the economy and markets that can be helpful to those willing to accept his basic premises.
  • JH
    Jim H.
    6 August 2020 @ 02:02
    I enjoy this segment usually. This was awful. I’m 50 and he sound like a bunch of guys my age having beers and bitching about the government. Zero Value add from him. And I’ve been impressed by his writing before. What did he say that was unique or offer a solution? His results would suck. Learn the difference between opinions and money-making. Your old enough to knit he differences.
    • AF
      Andre F.
      6 August 2020 @ 07:37
      Thank you! I have not even listened to the segment, nor do I think I'll venture into the masochism of doing so. I remember this bloody blowhard "Mish" from back in the GFC. Your characterization: "beer drinking and government bitching" is totally spot on; a blowhard endlessly complaining about an evil Fed and a stupid government was always the tone of his writing. He's like a character that could have been on Cheers, right next to Cliff and Norm. "Learn the difference between opinions and money-making." Shedlock's output isn't about money making, as far as I can see. It seems to be more about sowing apathy among the plebs while Rome burns. Like you, I'm here to make money. I don't give a shit about complaining about The Fed, complaints don't earn me a retirement fund. I care about being on the right side of the market that I enter into. F**k everything else.
  • sc
    sung c.
    5 August 2020 @ 00:46
    How refreshing to hear "Mish" correctly point out the Fed as the creators of bubbles over and over to the detriment of the public.
    • AF
      Andre F.
      6 August 2020 @ 07:13
      Refreshing!?? He's been moaning that old tune for at least 12 years now. This "Mish" guy was part of the low grade internet commentary on "The Fed, this" and "The Fed, that...blah,blah,blah" back in 2008. There were a whole crop of market/econ commentators that popped up back in '08 with their worthless, "The Fed, blah,blah" garbage and this Mish fellow was one of them. I can prep a high school kid to speak in the rhetoric of that pesudo-valuable Fed moan speech; so it isn't impressive and it's certainly not refreshing! Not one of those low grade 2008 commentators understood that a rally began in March 2009. There had to be people reading Shedlock and other crap back then who wanted to make money. There's no way they made any listening to Shedlock. People like Shedlock are part of the useless end of financial media. People like Shedlock are the reason why Raoul started Real Vision; Shedlock should not be here. It's very, very, very puzzling to me that the excellent Marko Papic could be presented at RV a few days ago and then days later we go UNDERNEATH the barrel and have someone like Shedlock here. Very puzzling.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    5 August 2020 @ 22:19
    I did not enjoy this. Not clear to me what Mr Shedlock's biases are, but they were rampant. Thankfully, Ash pushed back.
  • SZ
    SALEH Z.
    5 August 2020 @ 07:11
    Its becoming increasingly exhausting turning on a video and listening to another rant about how the Fed is the cause of all the ill in the world. The deflationists blame the Fed, the inflationists will blame the Fed - basically they are all a bunch of haters who are trying to find excuses for their own under-performance in life and they would all be living in the Stone Age hunting pigeons to survive if the Fed hadn't done what its done in every crisis. Fewer nations in history have endured the kind of prosperity the US (and its affiliates) have over the past 100 years - and yet somehow if you listen to these guys you would think the Fed kicked the jelly out of their doughnut. Disingenuous at best - mentally debilitating at worst.
    • JG
      Jonathan G.
      5 August 2020 @ 09:37
      You might not wanna hear it. But so many people blame the Fed because the Fed cannot fix this. The only thing that they can do, and that they did in every crisis, is "fixing" things by pushing the problems down the road to a future crisis, bigger than the previous one. They are not fixing anything, just generate bigger and bigger problems.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      5 August 2020 @ 13:08
      I am one of the Fed 'haters' you allude to in your comment. I think you nailed the comment. What if the Fed did not do what they did when they did it?
    • WG
      Wade G.
      5 August 2020 @ 13:39
      The FED undermines capitalism at every turn; its stunning to me witness people on a financial markets site not only fail to see and understand that, but worse, cheer the FED on.
    • MH
      Matthew H.
      5 August 2020 @ 18:25
      I agree and disagree with you. I'm guessing from your comment that you have made bulk cash from the last 50 years of secular growth?
    • EV
      Eugene V.
      5 August 2020 @ 18:27
      This gave me an interesting new way of looking at the FEDs activities: https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview/videos/hendry-and-gromen-the-dawn-of-chaos Listen from around 15:21 where Gromen says "Especially since 2008..."
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    5 August 2020 @ 17:11
    Good interview just right length
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    5 August 2020 @ 01:02
    In my over 30 years of gold mining experience, I have never heard of a producer selling with futures.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      5 August 2020 @ 01:21
      How do they hedge?
    • BD
      Bryan D.
      5 August 2020 @ 06:02
      Much better for producers to hedge with gold swaps with a bank as they can build into the price a collateral cost so the bank then wears the volatility of margining with the exchange or counterparty so the gold producer is not wearing collateral calls everyday as gold rises which can become a cashflow issue. Banks as the intermediary can deal with this much easier than the producers then the intermediary bank can hedge their exposure in the gold swap or gold futures market.
    • JH
      Joseph H.
      5 August 2020 @ 15:59
      Jack F., Most producers don't hedge, especially the larger miners. Smaller miners may be required to hedge as part of a project financing, but they use OTC forward sales, collars or puts directly with counterparty banks that are extending them credit (avoids posting collateral and being subject to margin calls). Most producers sell based on the London PM Fixing either directly to a refinery or to a bank. The banks and refineries may hedge with futures to manage their exposures, but not the miners.
    • tc
      thomas c.
      5 August 2020 @ 16:04
      were do the royalty companies come in? Are they just buying up future production?
  • JS
    Jon S.
    5 August 2020 @ 06:38
    I would like that RV invites Mr Thomas Kaplain again to talk about gold. We certainly need a real macroeconomics opinion about the gold in the long run to catch this rally or to let it cool off first.
    • MD
      Michael D.
      5 August 2020 @ 13:02
      Check the archives - he was on RV not too long ago. Things are playing out pretty much as he projected, except for the share value of Nova Gold (ticker NG)
  • MD
    Michael D.
    5 August 2020 @ 12:59
    My first introduction to Mish. Great interview! Thank you.
  • VS
    Ville S.
    5 August 2020 @ 10:44
    Good guest...reality check
  • df
    diamantino f.
    5 August 2020 @ 10:03
    The bear interviews are getting exhausted in the charts!!
  • SD
    Sudipta D.
    5 August 2020 @ 09:10
    Mish is one of my favorites. An avid reader of his blog. Thanks for bringing him in.
  • JK
    John K.
    4 August 2020 @ 23:18
    I just want to point out maybe we should pay people Love able wages. It’s crazy that republicans can be upset that are actually making a proper livable wage. If we get rid of the unemployment payments then we need to implement a 15$ national livable wage
    • JL
      Jonathan L.
      5 August 2020 @ 02:06
      If I must pay $15 to my coworker then I must pass that onto my customer to stay open.
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      5 August 2020 @ 07:55
      Minimum wage does more harm than good. A much less worse solution is a social security, which guarantees sustenance, like in Nordic countries.
  • BF
    Bret F.
    5 August 2020 @ 06:34
    already happening here. Over weekend uhaul lots empty. Interestingly Monday morning many piles of left behinds in front of empty homes
  • FD
    Frank D.
    5 August 2020 @ 06:21
    It is hard to listen to someone that constantly says "you know".
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    5 August 2020 @ 06:13
    He’s awesome.
  • CD
    C D.
    5 August 2020 @ 02:01
    We should all take a moment to acknowledge Ash’s microphone. Respect.
    • DO
      Daryl O.
      5 August 2020 @ 03:23
      is it a microphone or a heater ?
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      5 August 2020 @ 06:05
  • ER
    Eoin R.
    5 August 2020 @ 05:20
    Love that guy
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    5 August 2020 @ 00:47
    Ash, I appreciate how smooth you run interviews. You always have a good question queued up, often the same one that's on my mind!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      5 August 2020 @ 04:02
      Thanks, Derrick.
    • ML
      Michele L.
      5 August 2020 @ 05:06
      I also appreciate how Ash always has a wealth of fantastic quotes he seamlessly works into the DBs, particularly with Ed.
  • BA
    Bob A.
    5 August 2020 @ 03:13
    While I found the sound quality fine, I sometimes find that the volume of everyone other than Ash to be too low (even when I max volume). I enjoyed Mish.
  • JR
    Je R.
    5 August 2020 @ 02:00
    That beard is really coming along Ash. Lookin' good bro!
  • RA
    Rick A.
    4 August 2020 @ 22:40
    I listen to every RVDB, but this is the first that sounded more like Fox News than most. Not because of any particular statement, but because of the loud tone of the dialogue. What I personally like most about RV is its reasoned approach to various topics -- irrespective of political perspective.
    • JP
      Jason P.
      4 August 2020 @ 23:13
      I think we have been spoiled by double shots of Mike green on RV as of late not an easy act to follow
    • DC
      Daniel C.
      5 August 2020 @ 00:51
      "Not because of any particular statement, but because of the loud tone of the dialogue" You're joking right?
    • RK
      Rusev K.
      5 August 2020 @ 01:25
      This guy didn't even let Ash ask a question - he was blabbing on and on like a broken Russian phonograph.
  • MD
    Matt D.
    5 August 2020 @ 00:42
    If you buy it on your iPhone it won't go down - pretty funny, but out of curiosity, is that a "belief" out there? (by the Millennials or ? )
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      5 August 2020 @ 00:55
      Im wondering the same thing. I was born in 81, and i started trading in order to short this thing
    • OA
      Oliver A.
      5 August 2020 @ 01:04
      The meme is "stonks only go up" [sic] but I don't think anyone actually believes the iPhone prevents losses - at least not my IOS.
  • DC
    Daniel C.
    5 August 2020 @ 00:29
    Historically, QE has not lead to inflation. It has not affected M2 and velocity. IMO only a falling currency or supply shock would do that. I think the FED is doing a necessary and predictable job. They have successfully restored liquidity across the economy and gapped impaired household/business balance sheets during a black swan event.
    • DS
      David S.
      5 August 2020 @ 01:02
      Inflation always follows the money. In QEs the inflation is in the stock and bond markets because the wealthy who have the money are putting it into the markets. As portfolio managers are underweight gold and other precious metals, the rotation into gold is now beginning. Hard assets are going up also land, residential housing, etc. CPI would go up also if lower-income consumers were getting the money. COVID-19 has made many statistics non-normative. As Mr. Shedlock said a five-hour a week worker is considered employed. DLS
  • LF
    Liam F.
    4 August 2020 @ 23:59
    Ahhh yes...the tired old "we're paying people $600 extra and they'll never want to go back to work again" argument. Oh yes, those Dems are the bad guys for wanting to help people thru the most dire economy in generations. Meanwhile, back in the land of the elites, we can drop trillions into the financial and military-industrial complexes and no one bats an eye. Hey here's another great idea, let's kill off the ACA in the middle of a global pandemic. And people wonder why we're swinging back to populism. People are fed up being tax mules for the elite under the "Washington Consensus".
    • DC
      Daniel C.
      5 August 2020 @ 00:49
      Just make the "bonus" 300 for 1 month. Then watch the data. Bump it to 600 if signals deteriorate.
  • TB
    Tobin B.
    5 August 2020 @ 00:06
    Hey thanks for bringing this guy on, I read his stuff on zerohedge all the time and it's great to put a face with a name
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      5 August 2020 @ 00:12
      @19:10 - 3 consecutive bubbles were enabled by the Boomer population, let's not forget that. The fed just capitalized on the desire of an entire generation to get more stuff (power too, not just things). Cant blame them; Misch - I also disapprove of the fed.
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      5 August 2020 @ 00:18
      Quite interesting to see that the fed is now giving advice and policy recommendations on Covid - a medical issue. Huh? I thought it was a monetary policy organization only, and this belief is reinforced by the Chairman's "softball" press conference responses. Something about this should give all observers pause as to what the motives are.
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      5 August 2020 @ 00:41
      Yeah Mish has a train of thought that's heavy on the locomotives, but this guy knows what he's talking about, and his emotions show it. At least more and more people are starting to see the disfunction and begin to take action; that gives me hope. On the audio / mic note, what about sending something like this to interviewers, perhaps with a universal adapter, or during the pre-call with the new interviewees where they show what their computer can support and send them that. Just need one head at Real Vision with the most tech know-how to do this, and there ya go. Small price to pay for better audio; definitely lower than a plane ticket as it used to be done. I don't know if this one is any good, but it seems like a good first step: https://www.amazon.com/Logitech-Headset-H390-Noise-Cancelling/dp/B000UXZQ42/ref=sr_1_3?dchild=1&keywords=headset+mic+usb&qid=1596587689&sr=8-3
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      5 August 2020 @ 00:45
      ^ was intended to be for interviewEES, sorry about the typo
  • JA
    Jonathan A.
    4 August 2020 @ 23:55
    Really enjoyed this in the end, though honestly didn’t start that way! While I eyerolled a bit about the “bickering” line of argument Mish took in describing Congress and Mnunchin, he’s ultimately right: they do nothing, while some people in need are going to have to skip meals. Also, like the RVDB on Friday with Mike Green, the payoff comes from hearing out the guest’s line of argument so that you have context into his portfolio. Learning at the end how Mish is allocating his money was enriched by how he explained his framework and view of the investing world. And Ash, hats off again for guiding the discussion. You lead us all on a fun, informative discussion and narrative. Thank you!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      5 August 2020 @ 00:36
      Thanks, Jonathan.
  • DB
    Donald B.
    5 August 2020 @ 00:20
    I have been following MISH for pretty near 20 years. He is always a creative thinker with a touch of common sense who shows you the world from a different point of view. I love that you got him on RVDB! Good Job once again Ash.
  • DS
    David S.
    5 August 2020 @ 00:12
    I would like to see Mr. Shedlock back for an update. There are so many good interviews on RVTV that I do not go elsewhere. If someone is good, RVTV will have them on eventually. I like the person being interviewed to be him/herself, so I did not see any "Fox News" or conspiracy correspondence. If you interviewed Pete Rose, you should get Pete Rose – Hall of Fame what are you thinking? Thanks for having guests on some of the Daily Briefings. It adds to the depth. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    4 August 2020 @ 23:34
    Interesting interview. To balance the discussion that some on unemployment are paid more than when they were working, there were a lot of executives whose salaries were paid by the SBA loan/grant program. I keep seeing differing top-level salaries paid, but it was way above any unemployment. Does anyone know the top salary level funded by the SBA or other COVID-19 loan/grant programs? DLS
  • WG
    Wade G.
    4 August 2020 @ 23:18
    I think Mish's blog is worth a read for those unfamiliar with it... his material is usually short and direct, supported w/ charts. He's has a terse style, but he writes better than he speaks, so even if you're put off by his style here today, u might find some value in this blog. I occasionally find that he addresses issues I might have otherwise missed-- an angle on an economic release, some other data charts he digs into, whatever.
  • gj
    gail j.
    4 August 2020 @ 23:14
    Have followed Mish for several years now. Would love to have him back.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    4 August 2020 @ 22:28
    5 minutes I needed to know this will be a great interview!!! Thank you RV.