Daily Briefing – August 7, 2020

Published on
August 7th, 2020
Duration
32 minutes


Daily Briefing – August 7, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Raoul Pal

Published on: August 7th, 2020 • Duration: 32 minutes

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington to discuss the current state of different asset classes at this unique juncture. Raoul shares his view on the dollar, precious metals, and bitcoin. He also provides a strategic update on his unfolding thesis. Raoul guides viewers from the hope event into the insolvency phase as high-frequency data show slowdowns in economic activity. Raoul and Ash discuss why they think bitcoin is a favorable trade, and they explore why buying calls on the VIX and puts on the S&P 500 could ballast a gold-heavy portfolio. In the intro, Jack Farley discusses today's Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Comments

Transcript

  • TS
    Thomas S.
    14 August 2020 @ 13:30
    To what Retirement Crisis video was Raoul referring ? Did a quick search but couldn't find it .. or maybe saw it but didn't realize it was the one.
  • MZ
    Mark Z.
    8 August 2020 @ 20:26
    Hi there. Chiming in regarding cryptocurrencies: If you take note of decentralized finance... its all being built on Ethereum. What does this mean? All of the banking services that we come to expect of, is being built on ethereum... trading, borrowing, lending, leverage, (soon identity solution to enable credit). You can access it now via your phone "app". The thing is, "no one" controls the money supply, nor the services. Its all programmed into logic run on Ethereum. It is time to take note Raoul. Projects of note (uniswap, Kyber, Aave, Compound, Bzx protocol, curve).
    • MZ
      Mark Z.
      8 August 2020 @ 20:28
      Set Protocol, last but certainly not the least. Ethereum is rising because its ecentially won vs all other smart contract platforms... but most people dont know this. Ethereum network is being bogged down by real transactions... and ETH2.0 which comes with scaling for these number of transactions is due around November 2020.
    • MZ
      Mark Z.
      8 August 2020 @ 20:31
      Also take note that Bitcoin's scaling solution, the lightning network has been dwarfed by cross chain Bitcoin being represented on Ethereum network. Its obvious, yet hidden from view to the mainstream. Ren protocol facilitates these trustless cross chain transactions including ethereum and bitcoin, along with other blockchains.
    • BA
      BURHANUDDIN A.
      9 August 2020 @ 01:10
      A lot of this depends on Ethereum's scalability. Even though ETH 2.0 is due this year, Proof of Work is earliest next year.
    • BA
      BURHANUDDIN A.
      9 August 2020 @ 01:14
      *Proof of Stake
    • RD
      Reginald D.
      9 August 2020 @ 02:51
      Kava is a DeFi protocol being built on Cosmos SDK. They initially tried building their product on Ethereum but found it ineffectual. Keep your eye out on this DeFi gem...
    • SW
      Stephen W.
      9 August 2020 @ 09:27
      All these other projects seem like a lot of cart before horse to me. It's like developing top flight e-commerce in 1993. Bitcoin will mature to a currency eventually and then Lightning usage will increase rapidly. Pointing to the low volume of transactions on Lightning is not because its technically poor, its because nobody in their right mind wants to spend Bitcoin at the moment.
    • IN
      Ivane N.
      11 August 2020 @ 11:20
      ETH 2.0 availability towards the end of this year is still debatable. Also, putting everything in a single mainchain, scaling it hundreds of thousands of TPS and having a perfect decentralization is a pretty hard thing to achieve. Sidechains are a great solution to this but everyone except Horizen are using a centralized model. Horizen's Zendoo is very interesting, offering a truly scalable and decentralized sidechain solution.
    • MZ
      Mark Z.
      11 August 2020 @ 15:48
      Thanks for your thoughts everyone. stephen W. The comparison of lightning to erc20 bitcoin wasnt based on volume, its based on the amount locked representing available liquidity. Ivane, ETH 2.0 will not function with everything on the main chain. The main chain will function as the beacon chain to sync the other chains optimized for other functions. The key point is that ETH should continue to see blue sky for the mext 6 months. Happy trading.
  • DL
    Damian L.
    10 August 2020 @ 09:27
    I'm 25 yrs old and... I don't like bitcoin - slow, expensive, difficult to use. Doesn't scale. The higher the price and the more people use it the more useless it becomes. I think people forgot about 2017, $50 transfer fees, very slow transfers. Ethereum - terrible, can't build any useful apps on it because it doesn't scale as well. Not sure why would it be worth more than $0 if it's completely useless.
    • DL
      Damian L.
      10 August 2020 @ 09:39
      And I think you can't compare bitcoin to other asset classes because bitcoin hasn't been around long enough.
    • SW
      Stephen W.
      10 August 2020 @ 10:50
      Have you ever took custody of physical gold, btc is a godsend
    • MH
      Matthew H.
      10 August 2020 @ 21:07
      I agree with Stephen. ETF, Futures, options etc is not real gold. Storing, transporting and USING real gold is a B!#$h. Bitcoin may not be the one, it may be the one, only the ticker tape will tell. But the future is crypto. Bitcoin & ETH is far from perfect, but it is also in its infancy. Tech History has not been kind to first movers, so I imagine the real digital gold has not been realised yet. Or, I could be wrong and Bitcoin to the moon!
  • CT
    Chris T.
    10 August 2020 @ 13:12
    i think one thing Raoul is missing with covid... certainly here in London, people dont care about it anymore, they all know its turning into a farce (vs expectations) and getting on with their lives (without masks). Went into local park yesterday and place was full of people >70s without masks or gloves etc. There is a time limit as to which people care. Its been reached and past in London. This will happen everywhere else.
    • MH
      Matthew H.
      10 August 2020 @ 20:35
      I agree that society has a natural breaking point. We can only care about things for so long and with so much intensity. Plus the black swan event (lockdown not COVID) used a lot of that focus up. I wonder if the Uk has reached where it's at because of Dominic Cunmmings and Barnard Castle? One of the reasons humans have survived so long is our collective ability to forget the pain and even idolise the process (childbirth, communism etc). Personally, I don't really know whats going on with covid19 i.e. truth vs narrative. I naturally err on the sceptical side of all narratives, but as I am a mere surf, I just behave as if there is a killer virus (within reason of course and following the law as a Brit in Spain) as I could be wrong. I've been wrong about much over the moons. Especially the things I know nought about.
  • CB
    Charles B.
    10 August 2020 @ 15:03
    Raoul, You mentioned you were short banks. Could you review why you feel the Macro Insiders subscribers are not ready yet for the short banks trade?
  • MB
    Michael B.
    9 August 2020 @ 13:06
    A very wealthy and extremely bright Bitcoin advocate explained it to me. He said imagine its early in the 1990's and you had the ability to invest in DOS or the Windows computer code and opertating systems. Not just MSFT but the whole thing. This is where we are with crypto and BC. This is the building block for whats coming.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      9 August 2020 @ 16:54
      Very interesting analogy, Michael
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      10 August 2020 @ 12:46
      So we should buy XRP? They are more the Microsoft, whereas Bitcoin is more ... Linux... oops 😬
  • BM
    Bonnie M.
    9 August 2020 @ 16:33
    Ash, I for one, have no problem when you run over on time - most especially in your discussion(s) with Raoul!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      9 August 2020 @ 21:42
      Thanks, Bonnie. We appreciate the vote of confidence. We're always tweeting the model to improve the experience of our subscribers. —Ash
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      10 August 2020 @ 12:44
      More is better when it’s the Friday trip to Little Cayman!
  • DH
    David H.
    9 August 2020 @ 15:20
    Is there significant systemic risk to using ETFs to invest in gold (GLD, IAU) or bitcoin (GBTC); i.e., could these vehicles fail under stress?
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      9 August 2020 @ 16:53
      There's a reason GLD is the "gold standard" for ETFs (see our interviews with George Milling-Stanley of State Street). It literally owns more gold than the central banks of Brazil, Indonesia, Australia, and Mexico combined. And if you look at the correlation between GLD and spot prices, it's flawless. That being said, asset-liability mismatch is a problem that looms large for everyone, even the best in the game. Yes there's a doom scenario where family offices scramble for physical and banks need to call in their net shorts. Who knows. But in my view, GLD is definitely safer than futures. For GBTC, I gather that the value-add is tax efficiency since you can put it in your IRA. Correlations much less precise as it's an emerging field. I would look more into this to find the answers that match your investment needs. But you're definitely asking the right questions. -Jack
    • MB
      Michael B.
      9 August 2020 @ 21:54
      PHYS the Sprott physical gold trust is allocated gold that supposedly you can redeem shares for bullion if the amount is over a million I believe. The Royal Bank of Canada is the repository. The other huge thing is that for US investors shares that are held for over a year your sale proceeds are treated as an LTCG for tax purposes the GLD is not. GLD is taxed as a collectable or income.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      10 August 2020 @ 02:28
      I suggest having enough physical that you’re comfortable but not too much that it’s dangerous. I’ve bought from apmex and it worked out well.
    • RE
      Renato E.
      10 August 2020 @ 08:25
      Check out what Andy Schectman thinks about GLD... https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-f6j6k-e60a8a. More than one expert thinks that GLD is not as safe as many believe.
  • PJ
    Paul J.
    10 August 2020 @ 07:32
    Not sure, but Raoul's thesis definitely isn't playing out so far.
  • TM
    Truls M.
    9 August 2020 @ 06:10
    Interesting discussion. Would recommend everyone interested in the crypto space to read John Pfeffer's classic An (Institutional) Investor's Take on Cryptoassets, for a convincing case for why Bitcoin (store of value token) valuation will dominate that of the utility tokens (ethereum etc.) in the long term.
    • KB
      Keith B.
      10 August 2020 @ 05:21
      Hold both
  • AP
    Aneil P.
    10 August 2020 @ 05:00
    Raoul! Did you underestimate Trumps attempt to do executive action for extending the benefits.
  • AP
    Aneil P.
    10 August 2020 @ 04:51
    Bring Barry Silbert into Realvision.
  • EH
    Eric H.
    10 August 2020 @ 03:13
    Ash always comments about how he never leaves his apt. No wonder the quarantine feels like a lifetime
  • IN
    I N.
    10 August 2020 @ 03:04
    Regarding Raoul's very thoughtful analysis and conclusion of the US having entered a new normal, a point iterated and echoed by many, it stands now without doubt. Because we know what it takes, it takes this: https://twitter.com/neelkashkari/status/1291830793908686848 and we have proven that this is not going to ever happen. A substantial fraction of a few sectors of the US economy have disappeared for the foreseeable future.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    9 August 2020 @ 03:34
    Appreciate the perspective and I think Raoul is now deeply in the Bitcoin rabbit hole. I hear a lot of folks in the comments asking questions that sound like they're trying to understand whether Bitcoin is a legitimate investment or a ponzi scheme. I get it. It's complicated. It reminds me of how in the 90s folks were trying to understand which .com IPOs to bet on - invest in Pets.com or Google. These arguments miss the mark entirely. Bitcoin isn't the next potential hot stock like TSLA. Bitcoin is a better gold and it will succeed whether or not you believe in it. It will succeed because of it's fixed supply, it's technical design, and because a critical mass has decided it is a store of value. For those of you on the fence about whether or not to buy Bitcoin - but it now or you'll regret it later. Everyone is going to own bitcoin eventually. Own it now before the herd. Read The Bitcoin Standard, the Price of Tomorrow, and Lyn Alden's "3 Reason to Invest in Bitcoin" and buy it while you can.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      10 August 2020 @ 02:30
      Couldn’t say anything more if I tried, wholeheartedly agree.
  • fl
    fabrizio l.
    8 August 2020 @ 10:21
    how do you take delivery of bitcoin in case there is a massive disruption of computer networks globally? be it hardware, software failure or a Carrington event or a government shutdown of the web, or a government seizure of assets like they did with gold in the 30's? how do you OWN your bitcoin independently of a framework that is ultimately out of your control? how do you monetize this Krypto wonder without a piece of hardware that intermediates it for you?
    • MD
      Mike D.
      8 August 2020 @ 13:49
      Too much to answer here. Do yourself a favor and take 6 months to research crypto and the answers to all your questions and more will be clear. If it's not for you, that's okay.
    • SW
      Sarah W.
      8 August 2020 @ 16:42
      Couple of quick answers: 1. It’s now possible to transfer Bitcoin by text message, radio waves and satellite. No single government can ban Bitcoin, and a co-ordinated action in the current geopolitical climate is highly unlikely. 2. You can store your Bitcoin on a hardware wallet like a Trezor or Ledger, or even a wallet/address where you store the wallet seed phrase securely. It’s incredibly difficult to impossible for governments to control/seize your Bitcoin if you own the private keys.
    • SW
      Stephen W.
      9 August 2020 @ 08:25
      I wonder what would happen to Amazon if the internet failed or socialists turned them off but I don’t hear much talk about the inherent risk of online business
    • JG
      Jason G.
      10 August 2020 @ 01:00
      What's to stop a government (United States or otherwise) with their deep or potentially unlimited pockets (The Fed) from setting up Bitcoin nodes and executing a 51% attack to bring down Bitcoin. It is not impossible to stop Bitcoin. If it is a big enough threat it can be dealt with. Likely? Probably not but they crypto community is naive and, at times, arrogant with their Bitcoin can't be stopped rhetoric.
  • DT
    David T.
    7 August 2020 @ 23:55
    Bitcon is not a currency, at least not yet. If EUR were to fly up and down like B, no one would own it or do business with it. Bitcoin is more of a store of value and assets class. However, if like most hope it goes 10x or 100x, what do u do the next day? Sell it and get back to fiat currency? Than it's just a speculative asset like any commodity can be. Bitcoin will become a currency and an asset class when u decide to sell your house in bitcoin. Like in Emerging Markets people price cars and houses in USD, not in local currency. Would U sell your house for Bitcoins right now?
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      8 August 2020 @ 01:44
      I don't own a house but if I did, I would sell my house for Bitcoin
    • DS
      David S.
      8 August 2020 @ 04:04
      Someone offered $23 million for a beach estate in Bitcoin. The owner turned it down. DLS
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      8 August 2020 @ 04:41
      You're definitely right that this is not a mainstream opinion (yet) that I have with regards to owning bitcoin. Out of curiosity how long ago was this?
    • JW
      JW2 W.
      8 August 2020 @ 12:15
      I agree with your observation. It has always struck me as somewhat ironic that we think about taking profit in BTC in fiat. We still measure wealth in fiat currency and probably should not.. I still have not figured this out for myself :-) It’s probably too early in the global adoption cycle to have this view. My view is that BTC will not become a currency - none of the developments point in that direction at this moment in time. At least not convincingly imho. Also, let’s be honest .... running your own node, worrying about seed-phrases and storage and backup and recovery are not mass adoption scenarios. Mass adoption is more akin to opening a online bank account and clicking the checkbox that says ‘Add Bitcoin Savings’ and than fill in the amount you want to put away on a periodic basis and that’s it. Lastly, I have heard Raoul’s musing about going all in on bitcoin but since when does portfolio management tho longer matter ? Having all your eggs in one basket seems too risky. I doubt whether Raoul would advocate this, even though the investment thesis in bitcoin is growing in strength by the day.
    • SW
      Stephen W.
      9 August 2020 @ 13:31
      It's a speculative asymmetric store of wealth. Without doubt worth a punt. Visa have a crypto team, Square are selling it, Paypal about to start selling it, US have now allowed banks to custody it, Coinbase looking for IPO, on-off ramps and innovation happening at pace, halving up potential......why anyone wouldn't invest in it, even if it is just a small amount must mean that they don't really understand it properly yet.
    • DS
      David S.
      9 August 2020 @ 18:11
      Sahil H. - The offer in Bitcoin was made within 12 months. DLS
  • JH
    Jacqueline H.
    7 August 2020 @ 23:32
    I'm in ETH. BTC is too volatile for this old gal.
    • RK
      Ron K.
      7 August 2020 @ 23:52
      You are in ETH but not Bitcoin because of volatility?! ETH can be quite a volatile ride!
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      8 August 2020 @ 01:44
      ETH is more volatile than Bitcoin.
    • JW
      JW2 W.
      8 August 2020 @ 09:53
      Both are volatile - but since you obviously have an appreciation and understanding of crypto, it makes little sense not to be in bitcoin imho. Ethereum leads in the defi narrative and has tremendous network effect. Bitcoin leads in the store of value narrative and simply has the biggest market cap. You can always buy one or two or even half and just forget about it for a few years. The risk reward is very compelling. Plus it’s always useful not to habe all your eggs in one basket. Just my two cents..,
    • SW
      Stephen W.
      9 August 2020 @ 13:36
      ETH has recently admitted that they actually don't know the exact issuance of Ethereum tokens, there is no monetary policy. I wouldn't touch it other than a short term play personally.
  • MB
    Michael B.
    9 August 2020 @ 13:15
    BTW, I would like to hedge a large personal gold position I think with a simple put position. Would any of you very smart and sophisticated RV options peeps please recommend a strike and a month that makes the most sense? Would be very grateful.
  • RR
    ROBERT R.
    8 August 2020 @ 04:09
    I'm a long investor in BTC (25%), GLD/SLV/GDX (25%), TQQQ (50%). I don't yet know how to trade options. Raoul said "buy VIX calls". I don't know how to do that. Could someone point me to a good learning resource. I need to do this quickly and really just need a cookbook approach rather than trying to cram options education.
    • AT
      Anthony T.
      8 August 2020 @ 04:45
      Options are risky & leveraged products. You should learn option fundamentals first before buying anything, otherwise it's a sure way to lose money. This is a good practical intro https://www.optionsplaybook.com/options-introduction/
    • BT
      Bryan T.
      8 August 2020 @ 15:12
      Look for links to Tony Zhang of OptionsPlay on YouTube and elsewhere, also checkout TastyTrade option education coursework https://tastytrade.thinkific.com/courses/beginner-options-course?_sp=ac2b083c-fa94-4746-8fe8-2c8fd7e9cb01.1596899186626.. Learning how to place an options trade is the relatively easy part, learning how to manage option positions once opened...not so easy.
    • RE
      Renato E.
      8 August 2020 @ 17:58
      If you are invested in GLD and SLV, you should definitely listen to what Andy Schectman has to say about these investment vehicles in the latest podcast of "Quoth the Raven research" https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-f6j6k-e60a8a.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      8 August 2020 @ 20:10
      Wow - 25% in BTC. I am impressed and concerned for you at the same time. That’s a massive position, but if you can afford to lose it, I guess it’s fine. I’m long BTC as well, but I cannot afford to lose that much of my capital. Cheers.
    • SW
      Stephen W.
      9 August 2020 @ 10:59
      It's not the BTC or the metals that worries me but why would you be 50% in a levered ETF which is described thus 'TQQQ is not a buy-and-hold ETF; it’s a very short-term tactical instrument' - like for one day!. I would advise you to get out of that now. It is three times levered?! and if you don't know what that means you should definitely sell it.
  • Dv
    Daniel v.
    8 August 2020 @ 10:54
    I would love more crypto experts on RV. We have already seen a great crypto festival. Please give room to more experts so that we can all learn about crypto and its future possibilities. Also some extra insight on regulations around the world would be fantastic!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      8 August 2020 @ 17:27
      Hi, Daniel. That's something we are actively working on right now. More news to follow shortly...
    • SW
      Stephen W.
      9 August 2020 @ 10:53
      Can't believe they haven't had Andreas Antonopolous on yet but he's not really interested in the investment side of things
  • MT
    Mark T.
    8 August 2020 @ 19:26
    I think Bitcoin is a suckers bet.
    • MZ
      Mark Z.
      8 August 2020 @ 20:42
      U are right. but we humans are suckers. We hoarded toilet paper... in a country with abundance of wood byproducts.
    • BA
      BURHANUDDIN A.
      9 August 2020 @ 01:15
      More like schmuck insurance
    • TN
      Tim N.
      9 August 2020 @ 01:39
      When the Fed is printing to this degree all assets including cash become speculative.
    • SW
      Stephen W.
      9 August 2020 @ 09:29
      I'm taking it. Don't want to be left with Krugman 'fax machine' egg on my face. I don't agree with Chamath saying it is 'schmuck insurance' - Bitcoin has done amazingly well when no inflation or disaster was in sight. Its just going to go up, its maths.
  • ND
    Nicole D.
    8 August 2020 @ 23:13
    The time horizon used to compare assets is significant; one year ago Bitcoin was worth a little more than it is today, same as the S&P. However gold and silver are much higher than they were one year ago today and imho they have a lot more room to run. Boomers know and believe in real estate and stocks because for their investing lifetime that is how they have made their money. Boomers will likely continue with real estate and stocks or sell some stocks and buy gold and silver but they likely won't buy Bitcoin. I'm an early GenXr and buying Bitcoin but I don't know anyone else buying Bitcoin among my all my Boomer or GenXr friends.
    • SW
      Stephen W.
      9 August 2020 @ 07:53
      I think it is easy to think of Boomers as technological illiterate or wary or tech. My parents are in their early 70s and sit there all day with their iPads Zooming people! If Steve Jobs was sill alive he'd be 65, their generation have arguable lived through more tech than myself as a Gen Xer. They took very little persuasion to buy Bitcoin
  • TM
    Truls M.
    9 August 2020 @ 06:10
    Interesting discussion. Would recommend everyone interested in the crypto space to read John Pfeffer's classic An (Institutional) Investor's Take on Cryptoassets, for a convincing case for why Bitcoin (store of value token) valuation will dominate that of the utility tokens (ethereum etc.) in the long term.
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    9 August 2020 @ 00:32
    You know, it seems everyone assumes the FED will simply keep pumping reserves, crushing yields and gushing QE. Here’s a thought: what if they get very conservative for fear of making their liabilities legal tender? What would be the consequences of that? Literally no one I read is even considering this possibility.
  • RE
    Renato E.
    8 August 2020 @ 18:51
    I still think Gold and Silver and especially the miners are the better trade for the next few months. The BIZ re-classified Gold as a Tier 1 asset and JP Morgan is under investigation, unable to bomb the silver price at will. There will be sharp corrections to be sure, but a buy and hold strategy will pay off in the end without taking too much risk. If this isn't the time to own Gold and Silver, when will it be? Crypto, on the other hand, is still in a very early stage. I work in IT and only a few of my colleagues have an exposure to BTC, ETH etc. Imho, the Crypto people feed from each other and tend to live in their own bubble. Most people don't care about Crypto. An exposure to BTC is certainly recommended, but everything above 5-10% is too risky for my taste. If it goes to the moon, 5-10% is still more than enough, wouldn't you think? The BIZ is working on their own solution and I fear that the herd will be forced to choose that as the Crypto currency of the future.
    • js
      jeffrey s.
      8 August 2020 @ 23:50
      I think people need to think of BTC as no longer being part of the crypto space per se. As Raoul and Ash point out, BTC itself represents predictable programmatic behaviour. It is also unhackable, has no 3rd party risk and owners can take custody. The value of BTC is in how people measure those characteristics as having worth and today's environment makes that attractive because it can't be found anywhere else. That BTC lacks X transactions/second is largely immaterial; it's good enough and it doesn't have to act as a currency. The price of BTC on the markets is what people tend to fear, i.e. the volatility, whale activity and unregulated exchanges. The rest of the crypto space shares blockchain technology but is very different. It's full of third party risk and unpredictable programmatic behaviour. Vitalik himself has said that people severely underestimate smart contract risk. Altcoins are like VC technology with huge retail participation from traders who buy on narrative, hype or T in a wild volatility casino. When investing in altcoins, however, you are also forced to engage with blockchain tech and there is enormous educational value there because even if web 3.0 isn't the mainstream future it will definitely grow as an industry in an internet of tribal communities. I agree in part with gold and silver though think the metals have a chance to outperform the miners in the next quarter. But Raoul pointed out portfolio construction is important; it happens that gold and a bit of vol are perfect for balancing the crypto portion of a portfolio.
  • LH
    Leigh H.
    8 August 2020 @ 22:09
    Another excellent conversation. Thank you.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    8 August 2020 @ 20:12
    Raoul - do you agree with Mike Green that we could see a significant problem (and potential sell-off) in the risk-parity trades, and in USTs, if the 10 year goes to zero (if the Fed takes it there)? Thanks v much. Cheers.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      8 August 2020 @ 20:14
      My chief concern here is how much capital may make a meaningful pivot to Gold as a great alternative to a zero-coupon bond which may not be money good in 10 years in real terms. Cheers mate.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      8 August 2020 @ 20:16
      I feel like we are approaching a 1971 moment, and a 1970s decade but with greater geopolitical risks on the horizon. Not to mention a bloody debt supercycle year of reckoning, to boot! :-)
  • DO
    Daniel O.
    8 August 2020 @ 13:49
    Hi gents, excellent daily briefing! If there is a sharp sell off and correlations go to 1. Yes, buy some vix calls and maybe some bank puts and maybe reduce the gold exposure a bit. Raoul you said you are adding to bitcoin but wouldn't bitcoin fall as well with the rest of other assets? Why not sell some and buy some if corrects? I'm just trying to understand.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      8 August 2020 @ 14:39
      I will add onto an quick sell off
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      8 August 2020 @ 20:05
      Agreed. Be mindful that BTC should be sized VERY thoughtfully in a portfolio - as much capital as you can afford to lose, essentially. That’s how I see it, anyway.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      8 August 2020 @ 20:07
      With all due respect to Raoul’s brilliance, I think he has this Dollar call wrong because he is underestimating the fact that we are at an inflection point now economically and historically. Supply side matters; demographics is not the whole story.
  • AA
    Amilcar A.
    8 August 2020 @ 19:14
    Bitcoin (BTC) is the best bet by far
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    8 August 2020 @ 03:19
    Can we get frequent technical analysis on gold, silver and the miners? GDX, GDXJ. Would be great!
    • RE
      Renato E.
      8 August 2020 @ 18:00
      Check out some of the twitter folks covering that sector. Very valuable information on a daily basis.
    • PC
      Peter C.
      8 August 2020 @ 18:17
      and fundamental analysis, insights on, the bigger names like Barrick Gold, the more interesting names like Kirkland Lake Gold, the streamers like Wheaton PM,...
  • WG
    Wade G.
    8 August 2020 @ 17:42
    Great value, as expected. Thanks gents!
  • AN
    Andrew N.
    8 August 2020 @ 00:32
    Haha Ash do you just say that because he's your boss, or are you truly an incorrigible shut-in workaholic? Does anyone else have a feeling there will be some dramatic Fed action sometime this month? If Congress doesn't cough up a fiscal package, and the market teeters, I feel like they'll be compelled.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      8 August 2020 @ 01:11
      The latter
    • DS
      David S.
      8 August 2020 @ 03:58
      Andrew N. - It is a serious situation either way. Congress needs to come up with a stimulus package. If not 3Q20 GDP will fall off the cliff. Has anyone seen the portion of the 2Q2020 GDP that came from just the Congressional stimulus or what the decline would have been without the stimulus? DLS
    • RM
      Robert M.
      8 August 2020 @ 14:22
      Saw an article that said govt stimulus exceeded GDP in 2nd quarter.
    • DS
      David S.
      8 August 2020 @ 15:17
      Chris M. - Thanks. 3Q2020 will really be down without additional fiscal. Waiting with cash looks good to me. DLS
  • DL
    David L.
    8 August 2020 @ 11:45
    Interesting discussion, as always. I wonder what kind of world will we be in if crypto really hits 50-100k? Still strong dollar? Screaming commodities? It seems there would be bound to be some reflexive impact.
  • Dv
    Daniel v.
    8 August 2020 @ 09:50
    Next to 'crypto mom', what's also very interesting is that the Swiss banking sector is transforming to crypto. The regulators are giving their banks all possibilities to service the crypto needs for their customers: portfolio management, buy/selling, asset servicing as well as clearing. I don't see the super wealthy buying and selling online on Kraken or Binance. But when their Swiss banks offer these services for them, man this is going to be a big thing. Any thoughts?
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    8 August 2020 @ 06:55
    Fun and enlightening! Thank you both :)
  • MA
    Mikah A.
    7 August 2020 @ 23:13
    As a 25 year old construction worker, a subscription to RV is the best investment I've ever made. I listen to every daily briefing. Wonderful content! Thanks for keeping an unbiased narrative, and keep up the good work!
    • UJ
      Ulf J.
      8 August 2020 @ 06:39
      As an almost 60-year-old construction worker I agree with you. I like all the guys on RV. I wish internet was born when I was young.
  • MH
    Muddshir H.
    8 August 2020 @ 05:03
    Great work Ash
  • DG
    Dave G.
    8 August 2020 @ 02:55
    Ash you need to get outside man and unwind a bit. It's summer and winter will be here soon enough. You need a brain break from this covid B.S. Be well.😷✌
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      8 August 2020 @ 04:07
      Thanks, Dave. You are definitely correct. I’m going to try to sneak out this weekend...
  • RD
    Reginald D.
    8 August 2020 @ 03:52
    Incredible, incredible episode. Raoul and Ash always have the best, most illuminating discussions.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      8 August 2020 @ 04:06
      Thanks, Reginald. Much appreciated.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    8 August 2020 @ 00:30
    To listen to Raoul talks about Bitcoin reminds me of this who have religion about Free Gold. Seems to lack any objectivity. It is apparently the salvation for all of us.
    • DS
      David S.
      8 August 2020 @ 03:59
      If the facts change, Mr. Pal will change. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    7 August 2020 @ 23:21
    Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, GBTC, declined about 10% with Bitcoin declining about 1%. Is the markup in GBTC over the value of Bitcoin being compressed? Does anyone have any ideas what is happening? DLS
    • sc
      sung c.
      7 August 2020 @ 23:53
      I've been trading GBTC since Oct. 2017. During that time, I've seen the premium over BTC vary from as high as 70% to as low as 10%. The premium runs up as the price of BTC runs up and FOMO sets in and goes down as people fear steps in. Basically GBTC will run up in premium higher and faster than BTC price and decrease in premium value just as fast on the way down. One can use this, when trading, to their advantage buy buying and selling accordingly.
    • RK
      Ron K.
      7 August 2020 @ 23:57
      Recommend you buy some Bitcoin directly and read up on different ways to store it. Before you know it, you may be running your own node. It is like owning your own gold bars, you just need to learn best practices and discipline to custody it. GBTC seems a bit opaque to me.
    • DS
      David S.
      8 August 2020 @ 03:45
      sung c. and Ron K. - Thanks to both of you for your responses. I understand how the NAV works now on GBTC. I agree with Ron K. when I want to get into Bitcoin seriously. Until then I will wait until the NAV is lower to buy GBTC closer to the current Bitcoin price,if possible. The reason GBTC appeals to me is I can buy it in my Roth IRA. Any profit will be tax free; I believe. Great Whites do not bother too much, but I scared easily in the markets. I like instant in and instant out for now. Sold all my precious metal positions at market open. I did not want to risk the weekend with open positions. DLS
  • AW
    Angela W.
    8 August 2020 @ 03:36
    Thanks so much Gentlemen. Wonderful to have you back Raoul. Really appreciate your update on your perspective on the US$. Thank you also, for giving us access to your latest Pro interview with Julian. Have a great weekend in the sun!
  • JS
    Jon S.
    8 August 2020 @ 03:00
    Nice one. Is there any episode why bitcoin instead of ethereum? Thank you.
  • AR
    Andrew R.
    8 August 2020 @ 02:30
    This episode was a gem. Thanks!
  • BA
    BURHANUDDIN A.
    8 August 2020 @ 02:20
    The recent rise of DeFi in the cryptosphere could be short-lived & could be due to many factors but I wonder whether it connects with the fall in banks.
  • RW
    Robert W.
    8 August 2020 @ 01:48
    What about stimulus package effects?
  • PS
    Paul S.
    8 August 2020 @ 01:39
    Love to be a fly on the wall when Raoul and Max Wiethe are talking about bitcoin (if they ever do).
  • DT
    Denis T.
    8 August 2020 @ 00:52
    Really enjoy your insights and conversation, thank you!
  • PB
    Patrick B.
    8 August 2020 @ 00:32
    Welcome back Raoul. I think there was one previously, but would be great to have some interviews with experts on the subject of coronavirus vaccines - hard for us non-medical experts to get a sense of the likelihood of success, and what a vaccine really means... Thanks
  • PB
    Paul B.
    8 August 2020 @ 00:08
    Good Talk........Takeaway Stagflation
  • sc
    sung c.
    7 August 2020 @ 23:42
    Thank you Raoul for sharing those charts about DXY. I had been wondering about the dollar trade and it gives me something to think about going forward. My gold, silver, and BTC have been going great!
  • PB
    Paul B.
    7 August 2020 @ 23:41
    Why are you following the Charts on the Dollar Story...What happened to the fundamentals?
  • CT
    Cherry T.
    7 August 2020 @ 23:37
    Excited for Steven Van Metre!!
  • LF
    Louise F.
    7 August 2020 @ 23:31
    Great to see more of Raoul Pal lately!
  • ER
    Ernesto R.
    7 August 2020 @ 23:03
    what we should buy to sleep at night the video does not sound good at that time
  • MC
    Mark C.
    7 August 2020 @ 22:43
    Lots for us to think about. Great as always. Thanks!