Daily Briefing – July 1, 2020

Published on
July 1st, 2020
Duration
37 minutes


Daily Briefing – July 1, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Nick Correa, Max Wiethe, and Ash Bennington

Published on: July 1st, 2020 • Duration: 37 minutes

Editor Max Wiethe joins senior editor Ash Bennington to debrief Real Vision's Crypto Gathering conference. Ash shares his insights from some of the panels he participated in and his recommended pieces of content for viewers if they didn’t have an opportunity to participate. Max and Ash also tee up the case for bitcoin and debate why and how the crypto space will have enduring relevance for years to come. In the intro, Nick Correa discusses the Fed's Main Street Lending Program and its chilly reception by both lenders and borrowers.

Comments

Transcript

  • VS
    Ville S.
    5 July 2020 @ 11:24
    I'm a crypto idiot... Or at least I was before the gathering ... I watched the 101 session with Meltem and I gotta say she gave me the "a-ha" moment with the following comment: "What we're trying to here is change the relationship between power and money, we're separating state and money" That's deep. Of course the "idiot" interviewing said he only wants to make money 😂
  • MO
    Miguel O.
    1 July 2020 @ 22:45
    I agree with Max's skeptical probe...I love the space and am very knowledgeable about past, present, future...but Ive also looked at the bear side...and there IS PLENTY OF STRONG REASON FOR ZERO BITCOIN. Tough to hold opposing thoughts in the mind...but exercising both sides of the argument can help clarify how solid the bias really is. Great work especially the last 10 min of the show :)
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      1 July 2020 @ 22:50
      The constant pumping from every bull has created pumpflation (for me). After a trillion different reasons to be bullish, how valuable is the marginal pump?
    • AB
      Adeel B.
      2 July 2020 @ 00:17
      In what way there is a strong case for a zero bitcoin?
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      2 July 2020 @ 01:04
      The Friendster argument that Ash puts forward in the piece is the one that I've found bulls most accepting of because it is bullish on the digital hard money thesis in general but bearish BTC. It's a perfectly legitimate and straight forward bearish argument. The downvotes on Miguels comment are exactly what I was talking about. For many BTC is an emotional/ethical investment. Not saying the bulls are wrong but historically that is a great way to lose money. Similarly, I think it is so funny that the people who are negative about ESG because it lets ethics/world view get in the way of making money are the same ones who think CBs are clearly causing societal harm and let that guide their investments. Again, I wouldn't be here at RV if I wasn't at minimum open to that view but the lack of self awareness is stunning.
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      2 July 2020 @ 01:53
      Many of these BTC maxis are simply folks who went long in oversized positions and applied the HODL mentality through the $20k peak (or established their position at the peak due to FOMO) and cannot accept the idea of BTC being replaced for obvious reasons. These folks are shouting at the top of their lungs to anyone who will listen that BTC is the only true crypto and everything else is worthless. The Friendster / Facebook analogy is a good one; I have also compared this mentality to folks who took on too much risk investing in a single tech stock in the dot com bubble. Where is pets.com now? BTC does have risks and alternative crypto exist that fill its gaps, here are a couple - its reliance on proof of work and miners puts bitcoin users at odds with forced stakeholders who have contradictory goals and has been made obsolete already by new innovations on consensus - it is not able to scale to be used as money as it was originally meant for - therefore the maxis call it digital gold now. Efforts to fix this such as lightning network erode the decentralized nature of the network So I would recommend to anyone new to this space to do your own research and keep in mind that it is still super early. Think about the conflict of interest that BTC holders have in “teaching you” about crypto. I say this as someone who’s got 50% of my holdings in BTC.. 50% other crypto
    • RF
      Russell F.
      2 July 2020 @ 08:25
      The The Friendster / Facebook analogy is used by folks who still haven't worked out btc. Its a protocol. You'll find the internet protocol is still around and wasn't affected by upper layer private companies that built on top of it. Derrick: PoW has 11 years of proof of concept with 99.9%+ uptime. All the other consensus innovations have very far to go to achieve the same level of attack resistance. Proof of work is what gives btc network its value. The lightning network leverages the security layer of btc and is a decentralized as it needs to be to obtain the low level of fees and trx speed required to scale to real world systems. Some folks need another deep dive through how this all actually works.
    • SB
      Stewart B.
      2 July 2020 @ 09:00
      We've seen how not only have governments become more and more controlling but this is genuinely what a large number of people want. Today is not a libertarian dream, it is the direct opposite. Unless it is a state-backed crypto, it will eventually be outlawed. Politicians and central bankers have a God complex, and won't for a moment allowing something to exist which is beyond their control. Unfortunately, that is, and always has been, human nature.
    • AI
      Andras I.
      2 July 2020 @ 09:41
      Also, a larger and larger percentage of BTC is used a collateral in various wrapping projects in DeFi. So even if it remains/becomes a pure store of value with ever decreasing volatility, it might still continue playing an important role for other, more agile tokens. Further reading: https://cointelegraph.com/explained/wrapped-crypto-tokens-explained
    • AI
      Andras I.
      2 July 2020 @ 09:56
      Max, you and a few more crypto-skeptics should've been part of the gathering. I watched all the currently available videos (I'm waiting for the recordings...about 30% got uploaded then just dropped dead) but I found this DB more interesting - there is a bit too much tiresome "oldschool Wall Street" over-talked self-promotion in some of the talks. Meltem and Novogratz were great (together and one by one...can they talk :), some other guys occasionally interesting but some of the panels a bit too self-focused. Although I understand the institutional focus (at least in the approach, I doubt they represent the majority of the 8-10K visitors), sometimes it felt too backwards looking. Consider a startup life cycle, the gathering was more like what an IB would do around an IPO, gathering interest, visiting parties with a prospectus of past performance - whereas (at least with one eye) you need to be looking at the VC stage to see the future that's running at as with a speed of a loaded freight train and the past might not be that relevant. Looking forward to watching the rest!
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      2 July 2020 @ 15:04
      "Proof of work is what gives btc network its value." is obviously incorrect as it is not the only PoW coin in existence today. What gives BTC its value is its network strength, which I admit is considerable. It is the "Kleenex" of crypto, by that I mean a lot of people refer to crypto as Bitcoin and talk about them as one in the same. I find it interesting that you bring up BTC's reliability when it crawled almost to a halt in the FOMO rush to $20k with exorbitant fees. It simply hasn't proven it can scale and Lightning only adds a less secure more centralized layer to try and solve this. XRPL has been around almost a decade, and while BTC is vulnerable to 51% attack, the worst thing that could happen is the ledger temporarily halts. The XRP ledgers 8+ years existence and billions in market cap with no history of successful attacks speaks for itself. And this is just XRP, I am sure there are other ledgers by now that are similarly superior to BTC technology-wise, but XRP is the one I see used in real world utility today, and like BTC has a network strength that is strong and growing. Also, BTC is not a protocol in a world where multiple crypto co-exist. I encourage you to look into things like Interledger Protocol, ILP that more resemble the TCP/IP stack, but for payments, supporting any underlying assets, and with multiple options for applications including streaming payments.
    • RF
      Russell F.
      3 July 2020 @ 02:53
      "what gives btc its value is its network strength" is factually not provable and in essence incorrect. Proof of work gives it its security, please look up and learn about hash rates, then tell me if other PoW coins are comparable or even non proof of work coins. Not even in the same ball park. Hash rate provably provides evidence of the security and therefore value of the network. Feel free to work out how much money it will take to 51% attack the btc network. btc enjoys it's network affect due to it's underlying design (permission-less, secure p2p transfers) and first mover advantage. Understanding that btc is equivalent to the TCP/IP stack but significantly improved as it can carry value as well will open up a whole new level of understanding for you. Yes btc has scaling issues as a day to day payment system but no one intends to use it as such anymore, it will be the secure settlement layer of layer 2 stacks built on top that will scale, will be decentralized and will be as secure as they need to be for the magnitude of payments being made ie, every day to micro. There are trade-offs. Reliability has nothing to do with the scalability so not sure what you're talking about there but in regards to saying lightning isn't decentralized enough and then going on to shill xrp is highly ironic. As i said before the de-fi space will completely negate the use case for xrp if the SEC doesn't send them all to jail first.
    • RF
      Russell F.
      3 July 2020 @ 03:00
      Regarding the god complex of central bankers and politicians. Google Simon Dixon's youtube channel for a great explanation of some game theory between sovereign states that could essentially make it impossible for any one state actor to shut down the btc network. In short, if a large state actor decided to shut it down within their borders or make it illegal, smaller states could benefit greatly from then mining and holding btc. It would take the impossible task of the vast majority of all nation states to collude and trust each other to shut it down.
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      3 July 2020 @ 14:19
      Sorry you were offended I mentioned XRP, I know BTC maxis are sore about it... maybe because it’s moving millions in utility txns daily while bitcoin is still looking for a use case behind greater fools theory. Maybe you should read my post again where I have XRP as one example, I am not shilling XRP or anything else here, I disclosed my holdings also, I’m just saying the hype is at irrational levels, something Max wisely picks up on. I only discuss XRP and BTC as those are the crypto I know the most about. It sounds like you learned about XRP from BTC investors given your misstatements. This is why I recommend everyone to DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      3 July 2020 @ 16:08
      Here is my bottom-line take on BTC and why I have also invested in an alt: currently bitcoin has a huge network advantage to superior tech altcoins; however it’s mostly speculative investors. Mainstream does not care about the bitcoin philosophy, they will get into whatever is easiest and least expensive to use as money. If BTC can hold on to its network advantage long enough to survive mainstream using it as money, it’s the Facebook of crypto. Otherwise it’s the Myspace. I’m hedged accordingly
    • RF
      Russell F.
      4 July 2020 @ 01:45
      At no stage have I gotten offended, I'm just trying to stick to the facts, not hearsay. The original post was about btc and you've managed to shoe horn xrp into every comment on the thread. My single , brief, mention of it was to point out the hypocrisy of denigrating one project for it's lack of decentralization without consider the same facts regarding the project you are clearly shilling. Even in your last "I'm not shilling" post you mentioned it 5 times and in every paragraph. We need to look no further than the xrp/usd charts of the last few years to understand your great need to offload your bags. #rekt. You've accused me of misstatements but not included them in your argument so it's hard to provide a rebuttal. I'll take a guess and presume you mean't this topic: https://cointelegraph.com/news/ripple-likely-sold-xrp-in-an-unregistered-securities-offering Only 11 hours off the printing press. Ouch. How you can surmise I''m a btc maxi when I've clearly portrayed the de-fi space in a positive light, twice, begs the question whether you, are in fact, reading anyone's comments thoroughly. Generally to move a conversation forward you pick up a new point made and move with it. However, as you don't seem capable of taking a step back from your narrative and have for the 4rd time in one thread brought up the Friendster/facebook et al comment, I'll point out for the 3rd time that: Facebook/Myspace/friendster (doesn't matter which) are all applications built ontop of a free to use protocol. These applications leverage this free protocol to generate immense value to the top of the stack. btc is also a protocol, however, the difference being that the future facebooks to be built ontop will have value extracted from them downwards through the stack to the protocol layer as they need to leverage the security of that protocol. A simple but fundamental difference and the same principle in the de-fi space regarding eth and applications built on top. I'm doing my research, when yours? And finally, if as you say, "bitcoin is still looking for a use case behind greater fools theory", and you have pointed out that you hold btc, what then must we conclude about you? #micdrop
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      4 July 2020 @ 20:26
      @Russell LOL, you think I care about reading some conflict of interest opinion hit piece, these are your "facts"? Someone should tell these VCs they just put $200,000,000 into the biggest financial criminal enterprise in world history! I'll let you do that.. https://techcrunch.com/2019/12/20/ripple-raises-200-million-to-improve-global-payments I have already pointed out where you can't even explain why BTC's network is valuable (hence my position in it), which is why it makes no sense going forward here. Maybe you failed to read where I said BTC could secure its future crypto dominance by capturing the mainstream? You weren't holding the mic, it was already on the floor.
  • PN
    PJ N.
    2 July 2020 @ 07:40
    Why are there so many thumbs down???
    • IP
      IDA P.
      2 July 2020 @ 08:20
      I'm just taking a guess, maybe because they are speaking mainly about the Crypto event? and not about markets? Personally, I think Ash and Max great, but if I want to know about the Crypto event, I watch the crypto event.
    • WM
      Will M.
      2 July 2020 @ 13:32
      I suspect it was because the Bitcoin advocates didn't like the challenge....
    • AS
      Anatolii S.
      3 July 2020 @ 14:20
      I wrote to RealVision support about it before. Try watching on your tablet - fullscreen button (the most used part of the video interface) is right above the dislike button. I have accidentally disliked half the videos I watched, as there is literally no space between two buttons. Therefore, all RealVision videos have 20-30% dislike ratio. It takes literally 5 minutes for their web programmer/designer to adjust the responsive HTML layout and move dislike button somewhere else.
  • SP
    Stephen P.
    3 July 2020 @ 10:45
    Bitcoin is Antifragile, so gains from changes such as difficulty adjustment and Halvings, and shocks of various types; it has faced many of these and grown stronger. Since its one sigma variability is over a factor of two, you must be very prepared for its high volatility. It’s not for everyone, Max.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    2 July 2020 @ 02:39
    Ash, Would you please post the name of your microphone again? Thanks. Great job Max/Ash ...
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      2 July 2020 @ 06:59
      https://www.hyperxgaming.com/unitedstates/us/microphone/quadcast-gaming-microphone
    • MC
      Mark C.
      3 July 2020 @ 05:07
      And can they get Max one of those...he needs a better mic.
  • SP
    Seahyung P.
    2 July 2020 @ 01:17
    Haha, Austrian economics phase. We've all had that embarrassment...
    • KV
      Konstantinos V.
      2 July 2020 @ 02:08
      Why is it an embarrassment?
    • SP
      Seahyung P.
      3 July 2020 @ 01:30
      Konstantinos V. Some good economics comes out of Austrian economics but not all Austrian economics is good economics. I don't want to write an essay, but the crux of the issue is: Austrian economics would work perfectly in a society where everybody thought and behaved like an Austrian economist. People are not inherently rational and yet praxeology claims to know in advance how everybody is going to act in the future.
  • VK
    VIKRAM K.
    2 July 2020 @ 12:18
    Great questions by Max. RV's crypto conference was stimulating, but one of its flaws was that it was a jamboree of crypto cheerleaders, with hardly any sceptics - of which there are many. They should have got more airtime. The issue of how central bank digital currencies can disrupt the private space should also have been more explored.
    • RO
      Richard O.
      2 July 2020 @ 22:33
      Yes indeed , In my opinion the CG was good , but seemed too much towards the glorification of bitcoin...could have been way more neutral !
  • PE
    Paul E.
    2 July 2020 @ 18:59
    You guys should add this briefing to the end of the Crypto Gathering sessions. This turned out to be a great wrap-up! Nice job!
  • PH
    Pat H.
    2 July 2020 @ 18:54
    Wow, like the new look! New glasses/beard. Cool.
  • PE
    Paul E.
    2 July 2020 @ 18:40
    Don't miss the very first session on Day 1 with Niall Ferguson and Raoul, it was fascinating!
  • LP
    Luke P.
    2 July 2020 @ 17:17
    Thank you Max for asking perhaps simple, but useful questions we are too scared to asked- e.g. prime brokerage.
  • VS
    Ville S.
    2 July 2020 @ 16:03
    Great questions from Max. Loved particularly the question on the "shifting sands" of the use case...
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    2 July 2020 @ 02:04
    I applaud Max for bringing a skeptical take, I say this as a BTC and “shitcoin” investor. I suspect Max would maybe have appreciated hearing about Ripple’s perspective as they have been laser focused on solving cross border payments. Their presence seems to trigger anger in folks who are already decided BTC is the only crypto that deserves to survive, however XRP is quietly moving upwards $20,000,000 in cross border transactions daily across a handful of currency pairs.
    • RF
      Russell F.
      2 July 2020 @ 06:39
      De-Fi completely disintegrates the use case for xrp.
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      2 July 2020 @ 14:45
      You are comparing apples and orangutans.
  • TH
    Thomas H.
    2 July 2020 @ 08:30
    Whatever you do, don't call it crypto. Call it digital currencies. Cryptozoology are guys chasing bigfoots and Loch Ness.
    • VK
      VIKRAM K.
      2 July 2020 @ 12:04
      It's a stretch to call these things digital currencies. Currencies are a unit of account, a medium of exchange and a store of value. Nothing is priced in cryptos, so unit of account is a fail. Ditto for medium of exchange - most people don't transact in cryptos. And their volatility makes them a lousy store of value. Maybe this will all change some day in the future, but for now, they're not "currencies" in any meaningful sense. Stick with crypto.
  • TT
    Tokyo T.
    2 July 2020 @ 09:57
    Raoul in his bar, drinking rum and singing... --------------------------- You got to pump it up Don't you know? Pump it up You got to pump it up Don't you know? Pump it up You got to pump it up Don't you know? Pump it up You got to pump it up Don't you know? Pump it up You got to pump it up Don't you know? Pump it up You got to pump it up Don't you know? Pump it up You got to pump it up Don't you know? Pump it up You got to pump it up Don't you know? Pump it up You got to pump it up Don't you know? Pump it up You got to pump it up Don't you know? Pump it up You got to pump it up Don't you know? Pump it up You got to pump it up Don't you know? Pump it up You got to pump it up Don't you know? Pump it up You got to pump it up Don't you know? Pump it up You got to pump it up Don't you know? Pump it up You got to pump it up
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    2 July 2020 @ 08:54
    Great questions Max, especially on perma-bullish attitudes towards crypto.
  • DC
    D C.
    1 July 2020 @ 22:49
    Max Wiethe - yes! Totally support your crypto-sceptical line of enquiry and agree that there's not enough counterpoint to promoters of the space. I'm a core engineer for a major blockchain protocol and totally invested in the technology - a long time believer you could say ). But at the same time I'm concerned by the speculative frenzy and long only narrative which seems to accompany so much content. Like you say it's very early days and I'm far from convinced that crypto is mature enough to outperform the coming shitstorm.
    • DC
      D C.
      2 July 2020 @ 01:33
      One thing I have to smile about is that I'm heavily invested in crypto and joined RV for some diversification into traditional finance and Raoul's track record in bonds etc. only to find crypto being increasingly plugged lol. I understand Raoul's enthusiasm for Bitcoin is informed by Plan B's S2F model I have to admit I'm sceptical on. I'm long term bullish on Bitcoin but I think the market will punish those who expect that the number will only go up. Marcel Burger has shown Saifedean that a simple counter keeping track of how many times he goes to the toilet (modeled as if he goes to the toilet 1–3 times a day with a uniform distribution) is just as highly correlated (R-squared value) with the bitcoin marketcap as S2F is. LOL https://medium.com/@ercwl/a-list-of-the-greatest-blows-to-the-s2f-model-622b266ce199
    • DC
      D C.
      2 July 2020 @ 01:36
      TLDR; I'm long hard money. Short FOMO and wishful thinking.
    • RF
      Russell F.
      2 July 2020 @ 08:12
      Saifedean quickly debunks it as a comparable model.
    • RF
      Russell F.
      2 July 2020 @ 08:14
      Also that article link is embarrassing for the author. Pure junk.
  • JB
    Jamie B.
    2 July 2020 @ 07:21
    Max your interviews are so refreshing. I'm unsure whether its because you like asking pointed questions because of a lot of deep research or because there's a certain level of naive curiosity. Or both (I suspect its both). Either way, please don't change your style because it makes you stand out from all the vanilla type interviews that are available everywhere else (not including RV of course). Ash, you answered Max as the consummate professional that we have become accustomed too. Well done lads.
  • ND
    Nathan D.
    2 July 2020 @ 04:39
    Nice interview Max. The approach was refreshing and Ash nice job fielding the questions. A different daily briefing and a great daily briefing. I look forward to these daily. Keep up the amazing work Ash, Ed, Roger, Max, and the rest. I appreciate the content.
  • KV
    Konstantinos V.
    2 July 2020 @ 02:16
    Excellent conversation.
  • SC
    Sejong C.
    2 July 2020 @ 01:32
    I like Max's interview style. Hope to see him more often.
    • JI
      JWD I.
      2 July 2020 @ 01:49
      Love everybody, but I totally agree!!!!
  • RL
    Robert L.
    2 July 2020 @ 01:07
    So was a bit disappointed that I could not see the live version of the crypto event. I had been looking forward to those two days for weeks. Must’ve had something to do with your vendor that controls the subscriptions??? Oddly, all day Monday I could not watch any vids. I know you guys are busy but sheiBe. Build up and then drop the ball. Looking forward to seeing the 30 or so discussions. Regardless you guys still rock
  • AB
    Adeel B.
    2 July 2020 @ 00:21
    Great show. As always Ash, love that Microphone 😁. Im. Considering buying one for my own use case
  • MC
    Mark C.
    2 July 2020 @ 00:17
    Max as Ash says (multiple times) you ask great questions. Great stuff gentlemen. Thanks
  • JS
    John S.
    2 July 2020 @ 00:16
    Great conversation. Max fix your audio.
  • RL
    Renee L.
    1 July 2020 @ 23:59
    Agree Ash- Tagomi and Coinbase best panel!!
  • MD
    Matt D.
    1 July 2020 @ 23:48
    I agree - excellent. Great questions and thoughtful answers. I'm glad RV and Max are brave enough to question the BTC narrative too - like other comments below I am not anti-crypto - far from it. Yet as a trader I know that reality always wins regardless of (my) opinions or the best arguments. Thanks Max and Ash.
  • SS
    Sheldon S.
    1 July 2020 @ 23:40
    Perfect . . . More of this kind of content please.
  • MS
    Marcus S.
    1 July 2020 @ 22:58
    Excellent gents!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      1 July 2020 @ 23:01
      Thanks, Marcus. It’s a bit of a change up from our usual topics — but we really wanted a chance to highlight some of the gathering content that we found so interesting.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    1 July 2020 @ 22:57
    There is too much content on The Crypto Gathering to watch every single video for me. It would be most helpful if you could provide a list of videos for the following categories: 1 - Beginner/Newbie to Crypto 2 - Already involved in buying Crypto 3 - Advanced - Deep into the space and wants to learn about new projects/technologies beyond BTC, ETH.
  • JH
    Jacqueline H.
    1 July 2020 @ 22:53
    Link to Crypto Gathering programs?
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      1 July 2020 @ 22:54
      https://festival.realvision.com/cryptogathering/agenda.
  • MW
    Max W. | Real Vision
    1 July 2020 @ 22:17
    Here is a link the agenda. We are still working on the best way to deliver the content but this is what you can expect once we figure it out: https://festival.realvision.com/cryptogathering/agenda. Also, this is the link to the fed minutes I recommended at the end of the piece: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20200610.pdf
    • MG
      M G.
      1 July 2020 @ 22:46
      Thank you!
  • SS
    Steve S.
    1 July 2020 @ 22:45
    I told you the millenials like Max could handle themselves on RVDB. Great job Max. Loved the good cop/bad cop on BTC. You are right we never hear the bulls ever get skeptical on BTC.
  • DS
    David S.
    1 July 2020 @ 22:36
    Should we use the same herd immunity strategies on humans as we use on swine? There is a dark side to herd immunity with a contagious virus and no vaccine – culling the weak. In poor countries who cannot protect their citizens, the death of the weak is the only options. When a government eliminates by law or propaganda the precautions to keep the pandemic from increasing it is culling the herd of the weak and disabled. The Lieutenant Governor of Texas suggest that grandparents are willing to die for the US economy – USA Today 3/24/2020 from Fox News. The choice may be conscious or unconscious. It does not matter. The poor, the weak and the disabled are always at a much higher risk. In addition, it culls out the weak in the middle age groups also as some will live and some will die of COVID-19. The economy will open while testing the possibility of herd immunity. Other governments like the state of New York continue to try a more humane focused balance while trying to reopen. It is interesting that many authoritarian governments seem to be taking the containment of COVID-19 more seriously. It is even better when other democratic governments protect their citizen by being transparent, testing, isolating and tracing. Leadership matters in any form of government. DLS