No transcript for this episode?

@ 17:15 Raoul refers to what seems to be a technical indicator that he has at 13 and 8. I didn't understand what he said though. Is it called D Mark count? Thanks.

I live about 5 miles from central London. Yesterday I traveled, at lunchtime, from Elephant and Castle station to Paddington. So far as I could tell, at Elephant I was the only person on the whole train. By the time we got to Piccadilly there were 5 people in my carriage, and a further 5 people got on. The Paddington station concourse was very quiet - it is normally very busy. My journey home at around 9pm was a similar experience. This must equate to something like 20% of pre-covid activity. This must result in a massive destruction of businesses which are dependent upon passing trade, transport, etc. V-shaped recovery? I think not ............

3500 deaths a day....wth are you smoking down there?

With all due respect Raoul...if you're only concerned with "behavioral data" why bother with the "death count data" as it is minuscule as a tiny percentage of the population? Furthermore, if you are going to look at that why aren't you breaking the death data down into categories? This is hugely important! The vast majority of deaths are happening to those that are 70 plus with underlying conditions...that's a known fact at this point. The vast majority of public schools and universities are opening in the late summer in America. I'm sorry...but you almost sound like a CNN reporter on this point. The average person is beyond this point. Also, the Cayman's vs. America comparison is totally apples and oranges...America is essentially 50 countries all with their own state governments and policies. Cayman is a TINY country with a minuscule population. You're really "reaching" on this matter. So much of this pandemic has been blown out of proportion...just saying.

Great interview - thank you! Re Sweden: the economy has a high beta to global trade, so it is no surprise that its less formal lockdown has not left it immune to economic fallout. Policymakers know what drives their economy full well, so the argument that they went for a 'light touch' (which was not actually particularly light touch - e.g. they instructed workers to WFH earlier than most nations) to save their economy doesn't wash. Economic considerations was never the primary objective - but it was more the all-in impact on health from the pandemic as well as the 2nd order effects from a sharp economic contraction. Policymakers recognised the need for a sustainable, consistent and longer term strategy, vs one of tight lockdowns, re-openings and new lockdowns. The start-stop approach is more damaging to confidence in the government and consumer confidence. Nevertheless, Q1 growth in Sweden was positive and forecasts for 2020 GDP growth were revised up in June and are well below the double-digit recessions expected in many other European nations. In terms of fiscal space - there is plenty of that in the Nordics in general.

Where do we get the Crypto Gathering content? Weren't members getting access to it?

Hi real vision. Another great review. I agree bonds usually tell the truth. What can we take from the Chinese bond market especially the 10 yr yields 3.5% + China driving the recovery in copper, iron ore?

This beautiful background that looks like a cafeteria or a hotel lobby is your home ??

As always, enjoy the discussion between Raoul and Ash. Was a bit disappointed with this one because of the extent of what one might term « linear thinking », and a lack of questioning the data quality & interpretation of COVID data. Raoul suggesting that bond yields go negative ignores the nonlinearity and breakpoints mentioned by Mike Green in his excellent interview on The Grant Williams podcast recently. Please have Mike back on - MG understands, probably better than any of us, the fundamental curved surfaces (nonlinearity) and the core drivers of today’s markets. His thinking and deep understanding has completely changed the way I look at markets (and I am not unique in this regard! ;-). Passive vs. Active flows (buying & selling) seem to be elements Raoul has left out of this analysis, and these flows may well be the single most important factor driving today’s market dynamics. Always appreciate Raoul’s work and comments, so this is just meant as constructive criticism, not a complaint at all. Thanks guys for all your hard work & analysis. Cheers, JH.

I think Taiwan did a great job. They acted very early. Lots of good strategies to protect people (no political nonsense). The end result (so far) has been: 7 fatalities in a population of 24 million (451 confirmed cases). Standout performance IMO.

Transcript please

This is wrong and all who followed your bearish sentiment lost out on tremendous gains. More than you could ever make with your investment strategy. I'd suggest getting a new job....

It's disheartening so many still believe that Covid-19 jumped species. If you're unsure, please watch Chris Martenson's YouTube video called "Coronavirus: Are Our Scientists Lying To Us?" All interviewers (Ash) should be asking scientists the critical question "How did that polybasic furin cleavage site PRRA get into Covid-19?"

Raoul Pal still peddling fear. V-shape is here and NQ have exceeded previous high. What is he smoking? People participate in the markets to make money, not the economy.

Future of SMB loans, is Square, Shopify, Facebook...targeted, AI driven micro loans. It is a emerging trend that will fuel future GDP

US leaf the WHO for political reasons. That does not mean that they did not implement or follow equivalent guidelines - they did. The issue is that participation in those guidelines is variable. Bizarrely, some people value their personal rights above the general welfare of their community.

Shout out from Melb, Australia where everything is f***d. We were allowed to access our superannuation money (pension-like), under eligible criteria. I took out the max allowed and will use every dollar for higher education. Granted, in the short term it's not good, but long term I hope to make more than what I accessed. Booyah! :):)

Great interview and want to thank for the humility to accept no one knows but we can use probability in our favor....also the part about the last three out breaks being last 15 year I recommend you take a closer look why....all three in wuhan....wuhan is were the only bioweapons facility is ( it’s accurate to call it that because even French contractor that was building it stopped seeing they were going to break UN bio weapons agreements)....also look at the successful bi party program between duke University and the lab they publish a success storry of a highly transmit-able corona virus....also look into why canada was sending coronavirus samples to wuhan by “accident” only to have fired (dismissed) all of the chinese staff a few weeks later....my point this is man made and continuation of 791 unit from japan or the german program from ww2

Sorry for a black view point on future human exposures such as viruses but consider this: In nature, every species is both predator and prey. Nature has structured all living (and sort of living - a.k.a viruses) thus. Overall it portends the best chances for overall life survival on this planet. - There are over 7.5B humans currently living on this planet - Humans out mass all wild life by a factor of about 10x - Humans have extend average life expectancy beyond most species Implication is that overall human mass forms a vast food source for predators! Q - Has human knowledge and processes advanced sufficiently to defend against the rest of our predators ( i.e. all other species combined)? NB: Nature has a few billion years head start and is author of human complex, complicated and co-dependent biology!

Jefferies research is suggesting that Trump will force the FDA to approve a vaccine (eg Moderna) before the election, given the gvmt has pumped too much money into various biotech co’s and Trump will want a political victory. Combine this with the 1.6 TN $ the treasury has parked at the Fed, and the is a clear risk that the equity markets will see another massive pump come Aug/Sept whether this makes sense or not

www.mri.net released the scientific data on covid19 . Decide for youself, how much money was to be made!

Recipe for the Maldivian fish curry?

Hey Ash, you know what they say about a guy that needs a HUGE mic, right? Lol

What type of microphone is Ash using? That is a monster.

Slovakia has less than 2K cases of CV19 for a population of over 5.5 million. It's in the Austro-Hungarian "protective" bubble in comparison to the rest of the EU, like Germany or even Switzerland. Get your recent high "n" positive case to total "N" population into perspective. Think before speaking.

India did the same! Allowing people to get into their Pension funds.

My 2 cents, Watch as we see a v-shaped recovery in the stock market with ll time highs and someting very different in the real economy this year. Most of the large indexes are driven by 5-10 firms which are not effected by the death of small businesses. The unemployed will get more money from congress to keep spending... The FED and the Treasurary will ensure that the stock market will keep going higher.. Debt will baloon but the FED will keep interest rates low, Japan has 250% debt/gdp, the USD as long as its the world reserve currency ensures that US debt levels can keep going up.

Surely Ash you can get that ridiculous mic out of shot! :)

The US did not decide to leave the WHO. Our ignorant President who does not represent me decided to leave the WHO.

Thanks guys great insight, enjoy the fish curry. Very jealous

Mike Green has a provocative take on the Covid-19 Pandemic. It's available at the end of the following interview: https://www.podbean.com/ew/pb-jr3bt-e23cce In his view, the real story is not found by playing with case numbers and mortality statistics. The fact that the response to this pandemic is so incompetent, suggests the disease "is not the game". Indeed, "something else is afoot". Finding that "something else" is a challenge and may very well define our future.

Did this conversation happen? Thumbs up for yes, thumbs down for no. Jay Powell: "Hey Eric, so we been on quite a tear lately eh? with all this not-QE stuff? How about that Tesla stock eh? But poor Berkeshire..." Eric Rosengren (head of the Boston Fed): "Lol, you got a point there mate. What can I do for you today?" Jay: "I need a second opinion on whether we keep stimulating or take a rest and reserve some ammo for the wave of insolvencies coming." Eric: "Well... let's see.. we already put in the equivalent of war-time measures to stave off disaster and we need dry powder for the next phase of the crisis.. how about we ease off our bond purchases and see if the market can keep its exuberance going for awhile?" Jay: "You got a good point there matey, besides, we gave 'em a what for and Tesla went halfway to the moon already to get them through the depressing part.. its Summer now, they have the great outdoors to cheer 'em up, why don't we ease off the pedal and keep our next couple Tril dry for the next round?" Eric: "Sounds like a deal mate. Are we still on for bridge on Zoom next week?" Jay: "You bet."

You guys might enjoy this book. Deep insights about disease and pandemics from a historical perspective. Was written in the 70s. https://www.amazon.com/Plagues-Peoples-William-H-McNeill/dp/0385121229

I came down with some covid-like symptoms early this week and was tested on Wednesday. Have not heard the results yet and they said it could take 7 days to get my results. So if I get a positive result next Wednesday it will be reported as such on that day to the authorities, although theoretically I could have first contacted the virus three weeks earlier. I have heard that deaths being reported in some states can have a week or two lag. In addition, the states are not reporting the virus in a uniform manner. All this makes predictions from the aggregated data problematic. My own view is we will only really know what was the proper approach (probably a mixture of different countries' approaches) two to three years from now. Too many "coulds", "mights" and similar speculations in the news these days. Tune them out and just look at the best data available and be humble in drawing any conclusions.

Brilliant talk as always. Raoul is now showing a fossil in the background. Looks like P&G/Gillette is not shipping products to Cayman. ;)

I work for one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world. In the past 25 years there has been only 7 new vaccines discovered. The company I work for discovered 4 of the those 7. I also work in their vaccine division and have worked at the company for 20 years. I guarantee you that NO Covid vaccine will be discovered for at least the next 12 months if not 24 months by any company. People have no idea how are it is to discover a vaccine let alone a drug. Half the drugs we have (not vaccines) were discovered by accident while someone was looking for something else. In other words it wasn't intended. Bare in mind, Remdesivir, and hyrdroxycholoroquine to name two are not vaccines. It is possible that these or another antiviral will have significant success far sooner than a vaccine. But of course you have to be sick to take one of these, so there's that.

Just look at the Spanish flu and what happened then - there will be the same result now I'm sure, so why is everyone in such a rush to kill themselves?

Thanks for the great video and confirming the big picture macro trends I am watching.

We just Love Raul everything else is a plus

Looking a little under the weather, Ash.

"the croc got the ball" is an indicator! Our wiseman has spoken! Watch out!!!

Raoul, I understand what you are saying about the behavioral effects of the virus and I hate to be callous but it seems like we are now normalizing changes in morality faster than ever. If we assume that this happens with those who are expected to survive and the population accepts potential 5% death rates and focuses instead on the 95% survival rates, how is deflationary pressure maintained, especially in light of the infinite printing of money? Isn’t it just a matter of the time differential between that evolution in behavior on the virus effects (because no vaccine is coming soon enough) and the propping up of the economy via handouts? Sure, you may have a higher insolvency rate but maybe not enough to push everything over the edge. For someone who wants to have a long view on their retirement how should we feel comfortable not putting money in stocks. It’s scary to think, for an investor staying out of the market fearing equities catching up with the “real” economy by dropping could be ruined by a scenario where instead the economy catches up with stocks and never looks back. P.S. Just a suggestion but if you are going to do Gloom and Doom you might try an Eight ball in the Croc’s mouth for effect next time.

Just noticed that the croc's got the cue ball now. Oh, that is ominous....... Bwahahahaha!!!

Is Raoul always this wise or does he save everything up for this weekly interview and gushes with useful nuggets?

This is one the most important Daily briefing to date, for those who dont trade, invest, or follow the markets are the majority that want things to go back to normal? The reopenings of the economy is similar to saying this pandemic is over, this is what I believe the general public wants, but as Raoul mention is this the first wave or start of the second doesn't matter it's still here. Please post this DB to your YouTube and LinkedIn for as many to hear and see for free. Thanks again to Realvision.

I would hope that RV would have seen through this. WHO (that are nefarious), state that up to 650k people die globally a year due to seasonal flue. C19 is around 550k. That includes those that were run over by a bus (with C19)...that's a C19 stat.

Around 9:40 you show that GMI chart with Deaths vs Cases, where cases are on left-y axis and deaths are on right-y axis. Then you go on to say "just within the next month we are going to start to see three and a half thousand death a day out of those states". Do you really mean 3500? or 350 ? 3500 isn't even on the axis in that scale (even if deaths follow the curve of cases which itself is nearly impossible).

Institutional investors are warming to the idea that gold is a zero coupon perpetual bond (so its actually defensive Fixed Income) although traditional asset allocation puts gold in the "alternative or commodities" class. The regs don't see it this way of course and favour govt debt as the best and lowest risk collateral. So I'm just wondering when yields on treasuries hit zero/go -ve how easy will it be for institutional investors to justify an increased gold allocation by viewing it as a defensive asset class (normally seen as FI i.e. sovereign bonds) in the defensive basket of their portfolios if their mandates and regs limit their allocation to alternative assets? I remember when Raoul interviewed Christophe Ollari he said that european investors were already between 5-10% allocated to gold. I'm just trying to think about the trigger for the USD based managers to re-weight their gold allocation which will have huge flow implications. Any ideas?

I would be interested to hear the risk of gold confiscation....again.

Raoul is a financial poet.. thanks for the lyrical observations today. I learned a few things about what lies on the other side of the ultra-premium content: Raoul about to short banks for one. And several new phrases that will stay part of my investing lexicon 1) "never short a quiet market" and 2) "a pause that refreshes"... And..... , the croc got the ball, well played sir. Thank you for giving your blessing to play the market how we see fit. It truly is any man's game in this round. I feel the wealth mindset flowing from you sir and you didn't forget the age-old advice for how to proceed generally in a time of crisis: caution.

Raoul, do you think if it starts to roll over the $1.6 trillion sitting in the TGA will be unleashed in a pre-election bonanza. Can this counteract the accelerating COVID crisis? Can the roll over be delayed until after the election?

Would like to get an update on Raoul's Copper and Oil forecast in relation to his overall economic forecast for this Fall/Winter. Thanks

Simpson's Paradox! Well done Ash getting your explanation straight out without any hesitation, impressive. Was this set up?

Thanks guys, always enjoy your perspectives and humility Raoul about all the unknowns we're entering. Question: have I missed an episode or who is Raoul's new pool partner?

I'm sorry but I'm up to here with the virus . . .

Very nice back and forth. Let's enjoys the weekend cheers!

We ain’t comparing apples to oranges. Great! remote islands with no inbound flights do great with COVID rates. There was one shot for lock down in the US and now it’s gone. The US has more testing, more young people being positive, better medicine, unrestricted travel, and never had spare ICUs. The bond market is like perking up and yawning. The US has had 20% underemployment since GFC ... the market is saying deploying money to tech is a better use of capital than low wage hospitality, retail and gigs.

Raoul. A crocodile/cayman skull with the white cueball in its jaws on the pool table. You are the ultimate troll 🤣 Shilling doom like I'm shilling ALTs. I know what this means. The end is near. Bonds are heading to 0. We are royally f*cked. My nano ledger is with me, my suitcases are packed and ready by the door, to escape at a moments notice. 🤣

Going for the Raoul look I see

Yes. UN and WHO. We need to get rid of them.

Listening or taking the advice from the Chinese WHO? Don't wear masks, don't limit travel in and out of China/Italy, etc....another useless, beholden, UN affiliated agency headed by a an African commie. Yeah, but lets not make it political?

Come on. RV is not even questioning the stats. They are clearly goosed.

Always, always,always look forward to the Friday briefing!!! I come away with things to ponder and chew on. Couple things slide by in the talk. - why is the Fed curtailing its activities now? I have seen this mentioned other places. - the Friday futures pre-open looked like they were going to follow up on Thursday action and blast a hole in the markets. But the Gilead news was like a stick save, very much like the trade deals/phases announced when the markets were ready to spiral downward in 2019. Curious how headline driven the markets are and that they would hold up today when the announcement was less than stellar (IMO). In any case, the DJ Transports barely moved for the week so that's the tell, again IMO.

OK. Let us accept that COVID 19 is goosing stats and little more than the average flu deaths.

i think Raoul will get smoked on the banks..hope im wrong, really do

Is there a way to watch the Crypto Gathering vids in higher speed? Thanks, great RVDB here today!

Raoul, considering your and Ash's conversation in this video, could that alligator skull over your right shoulder be called Freudian Decor (ergo, market jaws start closing next week)? You and Ash make it a good and safe weekend.

.

Cayman did so well because it's tiny, rich and it's an island. Not because it's following WHO guidelines (which included wearing no masks a while ago).

Great interview Raoul and Ash, thanks. I'm reminded of an interview I heard by Prof Ian Frazer here in Australia talking about the virus and saying that there's a good chance there won't be a vaccine for a long time (and lifelong protection probably impossible) - it is made harder because the regions where the virus attacks (nose and throat) are more like the surface of our skin as far as our immune system is concerned which complicates things. Interesting that Australia and Cayman did similar things - we allowed people to access their retirement savings early ($10,000 with criteria for access). From our outbreak in Melbourne too, you can see that globally it will only take one rogue nation to upset things for everyone. Interesting too that Australian banks are still strongly priced/valued (even though some have deferred dividend payments this half) and we have our own local Tesla-esque with Afterpay going gangbusters. The OTM options and Tesla is interesting. Sorry few random detours. Crocodile or alligator skull ? The comment section is divided. Cheers lads. Enjoy the wahoo!

Amazing talk.

As spanish I agree with the death rate and how long it takes. My grandma passed away with covid symptoms and positive covid testing and it took time from the first symptoms to the fatal day. However, I think Raoul although the talk about markets we should talk about the death rate in a more ethical way-adding comments like sadly showing some sadness for every human life lost. This is just my opinion.

please as soon as you have all the signals and have complete view of what can happen please share thanks

Raoul - please tell me you wrestled that alligator yourself