Daily Briefing – July 10, 2020

Published on
July 10th, 2020
Duration
41 minutes


Daily Briefing – July 10, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Peter Cooper, Ash Bennington, and Raoul Pal

Published on: July 10th, 2020 • Duration: 41 minutes

Is the idea of a V-shaped recovery dead? Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal and senior editor Ash Bennington explore that question in depth through the lens of the virulent reemergence of COVID-19 in the U.S. Raoul and Ash break down the alarming rise of cases coming out of many states and analyze the effect that this ominous second wave will have on markets. They also discuss Ash's seminal interview today with Dr. Kayvon Modjarrad, director for Emerging Infectious Diseases at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research. Raoul is firm in belief that the human reaction function is what matters and that the virus's effect on behavior is more significant than the virus itself. Raoul concludes that caution is prudent in these uncertain times and that the bond market is sending the clearest signal to investors. In the intro, Peter Cooper examines market news and coronavirus data.

Comments

  • RR
    Rishi R.
    24 September 2020 @ 09:54
    No transcript for this episode?
  • DP
    Duane P.
    11 July 2020 @ 03:31
    @ 17:15 Raoul refers to what seems to be a technical indicator that he has at 13 and 8. I didn't understand what he said though. Is it called D Mark count? Thanks.
    • DG
      Dave G.
      11 July 2020 @ 04:18
      Don't worry about it Demark counts are a joke. Do a google search to see how they are calculated. From what I've seen it has close to 0 predictive ability. Thomas Thornton is big into DeMark counts. Just another way to sell a sub service thinking you have a special edge with some exotic system. IMHO anyway.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      11 July 2020 @ 04:20
      Contrary to Dave's opinio, I have found DeMark technical indicators vital in the last 20 years.
    • DP
      Duane P.
      19 July 2020 @ 04:57
      Thanks!
  • RW
    Richard W.
    16 July 2020 @ 08:06
    I live about 5 miles from central London. Yesterday I traveled, at lunchtime, from Elephant and Castle station to Paddington. So far as I could tell, at Elephant I was the only person on the whole train. By the time we got to Piccadilly there were 5 people in my carriage, and a further 5 people got on. The Paddington station concourse was very quiet - it is normally very busy. My journey home at around 9pm was a similar experience. This must equate to something like 20% of pre-covid activity. This must result in a massive destruction of businesses which are dependent upon passing trade, transport, etc. V-shaped recovery? I think not ............
  • SG
    Steve G.
    15 July 2020 @ 00:45
    3500 deaths a day....wth are you smoking down there?
    • TE
      Thomas E.
      15 July 2020 @ 18:27
      Reality my friend. Reality.
  • BM
    Beth M.
    13 July 2020 @ 18:19
    With all due respect Raoul...if you're only concerned with "behavioral data" why bother with the "death count data" as it is minuscule as a tiny percentage of the population? Furthermore, if you are going to look at that why aren't you breaking the death data down into categories? This is hugely important! The vast majority of deaths are happening to those that are 70 plus with underlying conditions...that's a known fact at this point. The vast majority of public schools and universities are opening in the late summer in America. I'm sorry...but you almost sound like a CNN reporter on this point. The average person is beyond this point. Also, the Cayman's vs. America comparison is totally apples and oranges...America is essentially 50 countries all with their own state governments and policies. Cayman is a TINY country with a minuscule population. You're really "reaching" on this matter. So much of this pandemic has been blown out of proportion...just saying.
    • pw
      philip w.
      13 July 2020 @ 18:55
      lol
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      14 July 2020 @ 11:22
      Thanks, Beth. Great points. Raoul is definitely not a CNN reporter on any topic, but I felt similar frustration with this unquestioning acceptance of the data, and lack of deeper data analysis, which seemed evident in this update. But nobody is perfect and we can all sometimes get carried away with charts, without pausing, taking a step back and really questioning our interpretations.
    • BM
      Beth M.
      14 July 2020 @ 14:50
      I agree Jesse...that's why I wrote "almost"...
  • GL
    G L.
    14 July 2020 @ 10:39
    Great interview - thank you! Re Sweden: the economy has a high beta to global trade, so it is no surprise that its less formal lockdown has not left it immune to economic fallout. Policymakers know what drives their economy full well, so the argument that they went for a 'light touch' (which was not actually particularly light touch - e.g. they instructed workers to WFH earlier than most nations) to save their economy doesn't wash. Economic considerations was never the primary objective - but it was more the all-in impact on health from the pandemic as well as the 2nd order effects from a sharp economic contraction. Policymakers recognised the need for a sustainable, consistent and longer term strategy, vs one of tight lockdowns, re-openings and new lockdowns. The start-stop approach is more damaging to confidence in the government and consumer confidence. Nevertheless, Q1 growth in Sweden was positive and forecasts for 2020 GDP growth were revised up in June and are well below the double-digit recessions expected in many other European nations. In terms of fiscal space - there is plenty of that in the Nordics in general.
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    13 July 2020 @ 11:47
    Where do we get the Crypto Gathering content? Weren't members getting access to it?
    • JO
      JOHN O.
      13 July 2020 @ 12:33
      I received an email from events@real.... on July 2 at 6:08 PM ET with a link and a password. Check your email, junk folder, etc. Or email Milton.
    • DB
      Daniel B.
      14 July 2020 @ 10:17
      Thanks Bud!
  • jk
    johan k.
    14 July 2020 @ 09:09
    Hi real vision. Another great review. I agree bonds usually tell the truth. What can we take from the Chinese bond market especially the 10 yr yields 3.5% + China driving the recovery in copper, iron ore?
  • FI
    FOTIS I.
    13 July 2020 @ 19:28
    This beautiful background that looks like a cafeteria or a hotel lobby is your home ??
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      14 July 2020 @ 00:18
      Its my house in Little Cayman!
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    12 July 2020 @ 20:04
    As always, enjoy the discussion between Raoul and Ash. Was a bit disappointed with this one because of the extent of what one might term « linear thinking », and a lack of questioning the data quality & interpretation of COVID data. Raoul suggesting that bond yields go negative ignores the nonlinearity and breakpoints mentioned by Mike Green in his excellent interview on The Grant Williams podcast recently. Please have Mike back on - MG understands, probably better than any of us, the fundamental curved surfaces (nonlinearity) and the core drivers of today’s markets. His thinking and deep understanding has completely changed the way I look at markets (and I am not unique in this regard! ;-). Passive vs. Active flows (buying & selling) seem to be elements Raoul has left out of this analysis, and these flows may well be the single most important factor driving today’s market dynamics. Always appreciate Raoul’s work and comments, so this is just meant as constructive criticism, not a complaint at all. Thanks guys for all your hard work & analysis. Cheers, JH.
    • CR
      Cory R.
      12 July 2020 @ 21:36
      "Was a bit disappointed with this one because of the extent of what one might term « linear thinking », and a lack of questioning the data quality & interpretation of COVID data." Markets react to the conventional data so our boys stick to the data as is. Hope this helps.
    • DC
      David C.
      13 July 2020 @ 03:37
      Agree. Would appreciate a different point of view. In fact, Jim Rogers highlighted that Bond is now in a bubble. Please bring Mike Green back since he has been right from the start :)
    • TS
      Thomas S.
      13 July 2020 @ 23:02
      "Markets react to the conventional data so our boys stick to the data as is. Hope this helps." Oh, I think this is a highly debatable proposition at this point -- not that Raoul and Ash aren't expressing conventional, mainstream data, but that markets are reacting to that. Perhaps the bond market is, but not US equities . . . yet. Raoul expresses this as the "hope phase." Perhaps. But it might be worth exploring whether markets are reacting to something other than the conventional data. Perhaps the markets know something that conventional wisdom isn't taking into account. I'm in the camp that this is a bubble, but what if it's not? Regardless, I appreciate the dialogue.
  • JM
    John M.
    13 July 2020 @ 18:31
    I think Taiwan did a great job. They acted very early. Lots of good strategies to protect people (no political nonsense). The end result (so far) has been: 7 fatalities in a population of 24 million (451 confirmed cases). Standout performance IMO.
  • VL
    Victor L.
    13 July 2020 @ 14:47
    Transcript please
  • AD
    Alex D.
    12 July 2020 @ 12:59
    This is wrong and all who followed your bearish sentiment lost out on tremendous gains. More than you could ever make with your investment strategy. I'd suggest getting a new job....
    • TG
      Terry G.
      12 July 2020 @ 14:00
      Imagine paying huge amount of money and he ends off by saying, "I don't know, you don't know"..
    • SG
      Stuart G.
      12 July 2020 @ 21:59
      If you're referring to the equity markets since late March, indeed there have been many gains, particularly in tech. But this comment is not really fair to a macro hedge fund manager that isn't a gambler trying to pick tenbagger stocks. Gold is up also up 15+% since March so his strategies haven't lost by any means. As to "I don't know"...it's true that no one knows with certainty what will happen next in the markets, and a good investor knows better than to say otherwise.
    • CR
      Cory R.
      12 July 2020 @ 22:14
      Hey Alex, I know what you mean.. but you cannot blame general bearishness for losing money or losing out on potential gains. You have only yourself to blame. An example: I too heard the bearishness, but I took to heart the bullish gold and I am up very well since April with gold mining stocks. Hope this helps a little.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      13 July 2020 @ 06:03
      I am History-teacher bearish but have made a ton this year. I’m now putting it into mortgage overpayments and stocking up food to prepare for the delayed cataclysm to come. If you didn’t get your share of the gravy, that’s your fault.
    • JO
      JOHN O.
      13 July 2020 @ 13:50
      If you are using Raoul as your only source of trade ideas and are only trading US equities I think you're missing the point of a RV subscription. He's been right more often than he's been early (wrong?) and any investor will tell you that if you're right half the time and let those run and cut your losers short, you win big over the long term. ALSO, RV gives you the thoughts of dozens of other smart people each month with differing opinions, many of whom provide their own in-depth opinion under their own brand. Subscribe to a few of those as well, form your own views and develop your own investing strategy. I have found RV to be a great investment.
    • JO
      JOHN O.
      13 July 2020 @ 13:55
      Terry G. - would you prefer to pay a lot less and get someone that says "I know, I know, I know"? If so, Cramer is available for free on CNBC. Just sayin . . . 😉
  • GG
    Gregory G.
    11 July 2020 @ 18:29
    It's disheartening so many still believe that Covid-19 jumped species. If you're unsure, please watch Chris Martenson's YouTube video called "Coronavirus: Are Our Scientists Lying To Us?" All interviewers (Ash) should be asking scientists the critical question "How did that polybasic furin cleavage site PRRA get into Covid-19?"
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      13 July 2020 @ 05:56
      Google ‘operation infection’ - it was the Soviet ‘active measures’ campaign to convince the 3rd world that the USA designed AIDS in a lab. The USA, Russia and China are currently all running active measures campaigns to pin the blame for coronavirus on each other.
    • GG
      Gregory G.
      13 July 2020 @ 13:07
      Not sure why this is "controversial?" I'm only talking about science; not ideology or propaganda. Scientists just need to answer the question "How did that polybasic furin cleavage site PRRA get into Covid-19?"
  • TG
    Terry G.
    12 July 2020 @ 12:45
    Raoul Pal still peddling fear. V-shape is here and NQ have exceeded previous high. What is he smoking? People participate in the markets to make money, not the economy.
    • KH
      Kavi H.
      13 July 2020 @ 08:30
      Comments like this make me feel comfortable to remain in Raouls recommended trades.
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    13 July 2020 @ 08:29
    Future of SMB loans, is Square, Shopify, Facebook...targeted, AI driven micro loans. It is a emerging trend that will fuel future GDP
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    13 July 2020 @ 08:19
    US leaf the WHO for political reasons. That does not mean that they did not implement or follow equivalent guidelines - they did. The issue is that participation in those guidelines is variable. Bizarrely, some people value their personal rights above the general welfare of their community.
  • TN
    Tim N.
    13 July 2020 @ 08:03
    Shout out from Melb, Australia where everything is f***d. We were allowed to access our superannuation money (pension-like), under eligible criteria. I took out the max allowed and will use every dollar for higher education. Granted, in the short term it's not good, but long term I hope to make more than what I accessed. Booyah! :):)
    • DB
      Daniel B.
      13 July 2020 @ 08:06
      HECS indexation is low relative to CPI. History suggests you'll be better off keeping your money invested in super. You'd be ahead now if you had.
  • AC
    Antoine C.
    12 July 2020 @ 21:19
    Great interview and want to thank for the humility to accept no one knows but we can use probability in our favor....also the part about the last three out breaks being last 15 year I recommend you take a closer look why....all three in wuhan....wuhan is were the only bioweapons facility is ( it’s accurate to call it that because even French contractor that was building it stopped seeing they were going to break UN bio weapons agreements)....also look at the successful bi party program between duke University and the lab they publish a success storry of a highly transmit-able corona virus....also look into why canada was sending coronavirus samples to wuhan by “accident” only to have fired (dismissed) all of the chinese staff a few weeks later....my point this is man made and continuation of 791 unit from japan or the german program from ww2
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      13 July 2020 @ 06:26
      Google ‘active measures’ to learn more about where these stories come from
  • BB
    Bob B.
    13 July 2020 @ 02:56
    Sorry for a black view point on future human exposures such as viruses but consider this: In nature, every species is both predator and prey. Nature has structured all living (and sort of living - a.k.a viruses) thus. Overall it portends the best chances for overall life survival on this planet. - There are over 7.5B humans currently living on this planet - Humans out mass all wild life by a factor of about 10x - Humans have extend average life expectancy beyond most species Implication is that overall human mass forms a vast food source for predators! Q - Has human knowledge and processes advanced sufficiently to defend against the rest of our predators ( i.e. all other species combined)? NB: Nature has a few billion years head start and is author of human complex, complicated and co-dependent biology!
    • DC
      David C.
      13 July 2020 @ 03:33
      Nobody knows the future for sure, but we can focus on what we can do now. Would you bet against human kind or have faith in its resiliency.
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    12 July 2020 @ 19:12
    Jefferies research is suggesting that Trump will force the FDA to approve a vaccine (eg Moderna) before the election, given the gvmt has pumped too much money into various biotech co’s and Trump will want a political victory. Combine this with the 1.6 TN $ the treasury has parked at the Fed, and the is a clear risk that the equity markets will see another massive pump come Aug/Sept whether this makes sense or not
    • CR
      Cory R.
      12 July 2020 @ 22:01
      With all due respect to Jefferies, there are plenty other things Trump can do/is doing to get reelected without being implicated in a fast tracked vaccine that may or may not be very effective. Your call of a likely risk-on market in August and September is interesting. I am being cautious and taking plenty of profits these days. At least I will have cash for late on, even if I miss a lot of late gains.
  • bt
    brian t.
    12 July 2020 @ 21:04
    www.mri.net released the scientific data on covid19 . Decide for youself, how much money was to be made!
  • JH
    Jeff H.
    12 July 2020 @ 20:53
    Recipe for the Maldivian fish curry?
  • DS
    David S.
    12 July 2020 @ 20:45
    Hey Ash, you know what they say about a guy that needs a HUGE mic, right? Lol
  • ss
    steven s.
    11 July 2020 @ 14:45
    What type of microphone is Ash using? That is a monster.
    • DS
      David S.
      12 July 2020 @ 20:38
      You know what they say about a guy that needs a HUGE mic, right? Lol
  • SK
    Sonja K.
    12 July 2020 @ 17:44
    Slovakia has less than 2K cases of CV19 for a population of over 5.5 million. It's in the Austro-Hungarian "protective" bubble in comparison to the rest of the EU, like Germany or even Switzerland. Get your recent high "n" positive case to total "N" population into perspective. Think before speaking.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      12 July 2020 @ 19:08
      My mistake - Slovenia is what I meant to say. Opening thew boarders with Croatia has created a rising second wave.
  • SN
    Sreekumar N.
    12 July 2020 @ 10:29
    India did the same! Allowing people to get into their Pension funds.
  • MM
    Mattias M.
    12 July 2020 @ 09:13
    My 2 cents, Watch as we see a v-shaped recovery in the stock market with ll time highs and someting very different in the real economy this year. Most of the large indexes are driven by 5-10 firms which are not effected by the death of small businesses. The unemployed will get more money from congress to keep spending... The FED and the Treasurary will ensure that the stock market will keep going higher.. Debt will baloon but the FED will keep interest rates low, Japan has 250% debt/gdp, the USD as long as its the world reserve currency ensures that US debt levels can keep going up.
  • MH
    Matthew H.
    11 July 2020 @ 00:11
    Surely Ash you can get that ridiculous mic out of shot! :)
    • DL
      David L.
      11 July 2020 @ 01:04
      Nah, the mic looks cool. Adding some color into a shot never hurts. Youtube generation won't even notice that mic. I didn't until I saw the comment. Keep it Ash.
    • RA
      Robert A.
      12 July 2020 @ 03:52
      That Mic is one good looking sucker—a real Jim Dandy! I’ve already got one ordered. You know...a previous RV comment nailed it when alluding to some passive aggressive action on Ash’s part in response to Ed’s repeated “Looking good Biily Ray” comment packaged in Ed’s wry smile. I’m thoroughly enjoying the game within a game.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      12 July 2020 @ 07:05
      I like the ridiculous gaming mic. Everyone needs their ‘thing’
  • KA
    Kevin A.
    11 July 2020 @ 15:48
    The US did not decide to leave the WHO. Our ignorant President who does not represent me decided to leave the WHO.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      11 July 2020 @ 18:27
      He does represent you, as the president of your country. If you vote, you consent to the outcome of the contest.
    • KA
      Kevin A.
      11 July 2020 @ 20:50
      @Keith B. He does not represent me in any form or fashion. I was a credit analyst in NYC in the 1990s and knew this guy as a serial defaulter before he had a TV show. I did everything I could to get my friends and family to vote against this charlatan.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      12 July 2020 @ 07:00
      I am not saying he represents you as a person; but he does politically as your head of state and the only way to change that is to change your citizenship or campaign to vote him out. Good luck :)
  • KD
    Krys D.
    12 July 2020 @ 01:58
    Thanks guys great insight, enjoy the fish curry. Very jealous
  • TS
    Timothy S.
    12 July 2020 @ 00:15
    Mike Green has a provocative take on the Covid-19 Pandemic. It's available at the end of the following interview: https://www.podbean.com/ew/pb-jr3bt-e23cce In his view, the real story is not found by playing with case numbers and mortality statistics. The fact that the response to this pandemic is so incompetent, suggests the disease "is not the game". Indeed, "something else is afoot". Finding that "something else" is a challenge and may very well define our future.
  • CR
    Cory R.
    11 July 2020 @ 05:37
    Did this conversation happen? Thumbs up for yes, thumbs down for no. Jay Powell: "Hey Eric, so we been on quite a tear lately eh? with all this not-QE stuff? How about that Tesla stock eh? But poor Berkeshire..." Eric Rosengren (head of the Boston Fed): "Lol, you got a point there mate. What can I do for you today?" Jay: "I need a second opinion on whether we keep stimulating or take a rest and reserve some ammo for the wave of insolvencies coming." Eric: "Well... let's see.. we already put in the equivalent of war-time measures to stave off disaster and we need dry powder for the next phase of the crisis.. how about we ease off our bond purchases and see if the market can keep its exuberance going for awhile?" Jay: "You got a good point there matey, besides, we gave 'em a what for and Tesla went halfway to the moon already to get them through the depressing part.. its Summer now, they have the great outdoors to cheer 'em up, why don't we ease off the pedal and keep our next couple Tril dry for the next round?" Eric: "Sounds like a deal mate. Are we still on for bridge on Zoom next week?" Jay: "You bet."
    • HR
      Hank R.
      11 July 2020 @ 18:12
      Someone has a talent for script writing. You should contact the guys who do the animated sketches from parts of JRE for this (i.e. Robert Downey Jr. bit:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBwecsh3FQc).
    • CR
      Cory R.
      11 July 2020 @ 22:18
      Thanks Hank!
  • MM
    Matthew M.
    11 July 2020 @ 21:54
    You guys might enjoy this book. Deep insights about disease and pandemics from a historical perspective. Was written in the 70s. https://www.amazon.com/Plagues-Peoples-William-H-McNeill/dp/0385121229
  • PW
    Paul W.
    11 July 2020 @ 15:13
    I came down with some covid-like symptoms early this week and was tested on Wednesday. Have not heard the results yet and they said it could take 7 days to get my results. So if I get a positive result next Wednesday it will be reported as such on that day to the authorities, although theoretically I could have first contacted the virus three weeks earlier. I have heard that deaths being reported in some states can have a week or two lag. In addition, the states are not reporting the virus in a uniform manner. All this makes predictions from the aggregated data problematic. My own view is we will only really know what was the proper approach (probably a mixture of different countries' approaches) two to three years from now. Too many "coulds", "mights" and similar speculations in the news these days. Tune them out and just look at the best data available and be humble in drawing any conclusions.
    • ly
      lena y.
      11 July 2020 @ 16:43
      Hope you're doing fine! Mild symptoms?
    • PW
      Paul W.
      11 July 2020 @ 19:23
      First a really bad headache than all over body aches and chills; now dry cough, chest pains and shortness of breath. Nothing too serious, I'm still functioning pretty normally at home.
  • NJ
    Nimitt J.
    11 July 2020 @ 03:10
    Brilliant talk as always. Raoul is now showing a fossil in the background. Looks like P&G/Gillette is not shipping products to Cayman. ;)
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      11 July 2020 @ 09:38
      Any self-respecting man shaves with a proper razer and shaving soap with a badger hair brush.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      11 July 2020 @ 19:02
      Gillette is truly the worst a man can get, hence the adverts. Repeat the lie, until it becomes truth.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    11 July 2020 @ 00:35
    I work for one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world. In the past 25 years there has been only 7 new vaccines discovered. The company I work for discovered 4 of the those 7. I also work in their vaccine division and have worked at the company for 20 years. I guarantee you that NO Covid vaccine will be discovered for at least the next 12 months if not 24 months by any company. People have no idea how are it is to discover a vaccine let alone a drug. Half the drugs we have (not vaccines) were discovered by accident while someone was looking for something else. In other words it wasn't intended. Bare in mind, Remdesivir, and hyrdroxycholoroquine to name two are not vaccines. It is possible that these or another antiviral will have significant success far sooner than a vaccine. But of course you have to be sick to take one of these, so there's that.
    • AR
      Alexander R.
      11 July 2020 @ 02:49
      You are talking about vaccine that would work In the world of fake news, you will be able to create a " fake vaccine " that presumably works And sell it for billions Of course years after we will discover it did not work and have big article in NEJM about it Watch and learn: we will have more than 3 vaccines in next 6-12mo
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      11 July 2020 @ 04:23
      Thanks Mark. Appreciate it.
    • ly
      lena y.
      11 July 2020 @ 18:41
      If a vaccine has not been available for coronavirus for years. Why this time it maybe successful in a year? More resources? More urgency? I don't feel comfortable with the fast track of the development. Companies rush into phases two and three even when phase one has limited success! Usually it takes months and years to get a drug. I worry how reliable the new vaccine will be.
  • KR
    Kevin R.
    11 July 2020 @ 17:59
    Just look at the Spanish flu and what happened then - there will be the same result now I'm sure, so why is everyone in such a rush to kill themselves?
  • sc
    sung c.
    11 July 2020 @ 17:30
    Thanks for the great video and confirming the big picture macro trends I am watching.
  • NH
    Naser H.
    11 July 2020 @ 17:19
    We just Love Raul everything else is a plus
  • tt
    timothy t.
    11 July 2020 @ 17:00
    Looking a little under the weather, Ash.
  • ly
    lena y.
    11 July 2020 @ 16:57
    "the croc got the ball" is an indicator! Our wiseman has spoken! Watch out!!!
  • AC
    Adam C.
    11 July 2020 @ 03:40
    Raoul, I understand what you are saying about the behavioral effects of the virus and I hate to be callous but it seems like we are now normalizing changes in morality faster than ever. If we assume that this happens with those who are expected to survive and the population accepts potential 5% death rates and focuses instead on the 95% survival rates, how is deflationary pressure maintained, especially in light of the infinite printing of money? Isn’t it just a matter of the time differential between that evolution in behavior on the virus effects (because no vaccine is coming soon enough) and the propping up of the economy via handouts? Sure, you may have a higher insolvency rate but maybe not enough to push everything over the edge. For someone who wants to have a long view on their retirement how should we feel comfortable not putting money in stocks. It’s scary to think, for an investor staying out of the market fearing equities catching up with the “real” economy by dropping could be ruined by a scenario where instead the economy catches up with stocks and never looks back. P.S. Just a suggestion but if you are going to do Gloom and Doom you might try an Eight ball in the Croc’s mouth for effect next time.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      11 July 2020 @ 04:20
      haha... but good points. Time will tell
    • CR
      Cory R.
      11 July 2020 @ 05:26
      "how is deflationary pressure maintained?" I believe Raoul is saying the next phase of this crisis is the Insolvency Phase. The seriousness of presumably many and large insolvencies should drag markets down to a significant down level. At that point, the virus takes a back seat to the real economy. At least for an interlude. My understanding is that he said today we are dangerously close to the capitulation and market rollover. Market should not trade above June high. Market should now start following the trend of the (failing) banks and indebted companies. Central bank is buying very little bonds right now so the "prop-up" effect (my words) has lost its legs. 10-year yield is going negative he says. That looks deflationary to me.
    • JW
      Jürgen W.
      11 July 2020 @ 08:03
      I sense some FOMIO, however, remember that essentially Big Tech is driving the market (investment in real growth is a valid investment thesis in the current environment). Nevertheless, take a look at the performance for example of the Russell or XLF, XLI, XLE - no bull market in sight here by far...
    • wN
      wubbo N.
      11 July 2020 @ 16:29
      I love realvision as alternative news in finance. But you guys are full on the mainstream narrative regarding covid. How about the virus dying off everywhere there has been a huge breakout (Sweden, Netherlands, Spain, Belgium, Italy) especially when you zoom in on a local level. Sweden took a bit longer, which makes sense considering their soft approach. But their deaths are definitely plateauing and <10 per day.
  • JL
    John L.
    11 July 2020 @ 14:54
    Just noticed that the croc's got the cue ball now. Oh, that is ominous....... Bwahahahaha!!!
  • DB
    Donna B.
    11 July 2020 @ 14:51
    Is Raoul always this wise or does he save everything up for this weekly interview and gushes with useful nuggets?
  • AD
    Adrian D.
    11 July 2020 @ 11:48
    This is one the most important Daily briefing to date, for those who dont trade, invest, or follow the markets are the majority that want things to go back to normal? The reopenings of the economy is similar to saying this pandemic is over, this is what I believe the general public wants, but as Raoul mention is this the first wave or start of the second doesn't matter it's still here. Please post this DB to your YouTube and LinkedIn for as many to hear and see for free. Thanks again to Realvision.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      11 July 2020 @ 11:51
      I do not agree these one should be shared - the information in this one is not for the interests of everyone - it is more of a trade analysis and as such to open to the Real Vision Essential users is good enough. This what one wants to hear when one pays for the subscription fee.
  • OS
    Oliver S.
    10 July 2020 @ 23:52
    I would hope that RV would have seen through this. WHO (that are nefarious), state that up to 650k people die globally a year due to seasonal flue. C19 is around 550k. That includes those that were run over by a bus (with C19)...that's a C19 stat.
    • PS
      Paul S.
      11 July 2020 @ 00:22
      Just put your mask on, man
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      11 July 2020 @ 04:26
      Oliver - this virus is only in the first innings and its incremental wealths that count.
    • NI
      Nate I.
      11 July 2020 @ 05:16
      Hey Oliver, I 100% agree there is a lot of political BS going on w.r.t. covid-19 (including its name), but my wife has five co-workers down with something very serious. That's unprecedented in her department. Her peers almost never call in sick. it's not flu season here in the desert southwest US. I can't agree that it's flu. The PCR test is not diagnostic (even according to its creator), but whatever my wife's co-workers have, it's something very serious. They sound like the walking dead on the phone. Personally, I'm in the bunker to the maximum extent possible.
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      11 July 2020 @ 09:44
      People always forget the seasonal flu stats are based 100% on models, not actual data. You shouldn't compare models with real-world data.
  • SM
    Shantanu M.
    10 July 2020 @ 23:27
    Around 9:40 you show that GMI chart with Deaths vs Cases, where cases are on left-y axis and deaths are on right-y axis. Then you go on to say "just within the next month we are going to start to see three and a half thousand death a day out of those states". Do you really mean 3500? or 350 ? 3500 isn't even on the axis in that scale (even if deaths follow the curve of cases which itself is nearly impossible).
    • SM
      Stephane M.
      11 July 2020 @ 09:36
      Nice observation Shantanu!! Is it part of the fear spreading?!?!? Who knows... I'll bet it won't be neither number ;-)
  • MC
    Michael C.
    11 July 2020 @ 04:58
    Institutional investors are warming to the idea that gold is a zero coupon perpetual bond (so its actually defensive Fixed Income) although traditional asset allocation puts gold in the "alternative or commodities" class. The regs don't see it this way of course and favour govt debt as the best and lowest risk collateral. So I'm just wondering when yields on treasuries hit zero/go -ve how easy will it be for institutional investors to justify an increased gold allocation by viewing it as a defensive asset class (normally seen as FI i.e. sovereign bonds) in the defensive basket of their portfolios if their mandates and regs limit their allocation to alternative assets? I remember when Raoul interviewed Christophe Ollari he said that european investors were already between 5-10% allocated to gold. I'm just trying to think about the trigger for the USD based managers to re-weight their gold allocation which will have huge flow implications. Any ideas?
    • CR
      Cory R.
      11 July 2020 @ 05:02
      Remember, gold is a small market. Although, it could be expanded to include all the precious metals: palladium, platinum, silver. Nah, that would still be a small market.
    • MC
      Michael C.
      11 July 2020 @ 05:19
      $9 trillion market cap is small? Imagine how much bigger the market cap will be if gold is widely accepted among institutional investors as belonging in the defensive asset bucket instead of the much smaller alternative asset bucket. Negative rates on US Treasuries might be the actor to make this psychological change. It's already happening among those who have the freedom to choose but not yet among institutions who are constrained by mandates and regulations.
    • CR
      Cory R.
      11 July 2020 @ 05:43
      Did you take out the gold jewelry portion of the market? Anyway, you have a good point, price can take the cap to a more "respectable" level. The main point against gold being considered as you say it should, is that it will pose as a viable competitor to current world reserve currency and therefore be a direct risk to the Pentagon, Washington D.C., Wall Street, Texas and Alaska. In that order. :)
  • OS
    Oliver S.
    11 July 2020 @ 00:10
    I would be interested to hear the risk of gold confiscation....again.
    • SS
      S S.
      11 July 2020 @ 00:12
      Nano Ledger is where it is at. They can't confiscate that if its up your backside and you fly to Little Cayman and cash out. Can't do that with Gold bars can you?
    • GF
      Gordon F.
      11 July 2020 @ 01:32
      My guess is they wouldn't bother trying to confiscate gold. If it goes up a lot they would just put a windfall profits tax of 90% on any that you try to sell or trade, because clearly, that would be an ill-gotten gain. Of course, if you are trying to travel with it, or get it to a different jurisdiction, then they would confiscate it.
    • NI
      Nate I.
      11 July 2020 @ 05:00
      Not likely. Very few Americans hold gold and 99% are clueless about gold. Moreover, if the US government wanted gold, it would be a lot easier to print the money to buy it rather than trying to confiscate it. I would be much more worried about a wealth tax.
  • CR
    Cory R.
    11 July 2020 @ 00:01
    Raoul is a financial poet.. thanks for the lyrical observations today. I learned a few things about what lies on the other side of the ultra-premium content: Raoul about to short banks for one. And several new phrases that will stay part of my investing lexicon 1) "never short a quiet market" and 2) "a pause that refreshes"... And..... , the croc got the ball, well played sir. Thank you for giving your blessing to play the market how we see fit. It truly is any man's game in this round. I feel the wealth mindset flowing from you sir and you didn't forget the age-old advice for how to proceed generally in a time of crisis: caution.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      11 July 2020 @ 04:25
      Thanks!
  • TN
    Tim N.
    11 July 2020 @ 00:24
    Raoul, do you think if it starts to roll over the $1.6 trillion sitting in the TGA will be unleashed in a pre-election bonanza. Can this counteract the accelerating COVID crisis? Can the roll over be delayed until after the election?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      11 July 2020 @ 04:24
      Im mulling this over, for sure.
  • MV
    Matt V.
    11 July 2020 @ 01:05
    Would like to get an update on Raoul's Copper and Oil forecast in relation to his overall economic forecast for this Fall/Winter. Thanks
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      11 July 2020 @ 04:22
      Lower but am still long copper and gave back all my gains so feel free to ignore me...
  • AB
    Alain B.
    11 July 2020 @ 01:18
    Simpson's Paradox! Well done Ash getting your explanation straight out without any hesitation, impressive. Was this set up?
    • SM
      Shantanu M.
      11 July 2020 @ 02:55
      It was a really cute attempt and horribly wrong. These guys suck really bad at data analytics. Looking at cases and deaths on two different axis at different scales and then trying to draw conclusion based on the shape of the curve of two plots, ROFL. Art majors interpret data better.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      11 July 2020 @ 04:22
      Shantanu - Let's see. Ive used dual axis graphs for 30 years and they have been incredibly successful
  • DT
    Denis T.
    11 July 2020 @ 03:11
    Thanks guys, always enjoy your perspectives and humility Raoul about all the unknowns we're entering. Question: have I missed an episode or who is Raoul's new pool partner?
  • SS
    Sheldon S.
    11 July 2020 @ 01:42
    I'm sorry but I'm up to here with the virus . . .
  • BE
    B E.
    11 July 2020 @ 00:55
    Very nice back and forth. Let's enjoys the weekend cheers!
  • DR
    Danilo R.
    11 July 2020 @ 00:55
    We ain’t comparing apples to oranges. Great! remote islands with no inbound flights do great with COVID rates. There was one shot for lock down in the US and now it’s gone. The US has more testing, more young people being positive, better medicine, unrestricted travel, and never had spare ICUs. The bond market is like perking up and yawning. The US has had 20% underemployment since GFC ... the market is saying deploying money to tech is a better use of capital than low wage hospitality, retail and gigs.
  • SS
    S S.
    10 July 2020 @ 22:25
    Raoul. A crocodile/cayman skull with the white cueball in its jaws on the pool table. You are the ultimate troll 🤣 Shilling doom like I'm shilling ALTs. I know what this means. The end is near. Bonds are heading to 0. We are royally f*cked. My nano ledger is with me, my suitcases are packed and ready by the door, to escape at a moments notice. 🤣
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      11 July 2020 @ 00:46
      Buy EUR/USD
  • PB
    Paul B.
    11 July 2020 @ 00:12
    Going for the Raoul look I see
  • OS
    Oliver S.
    11 July 2020 @ 00:08
    Yes. UN and WHO. We need to get rid of them.
  • DS
    David S.
    11 July 2020 @ 00:07
    Listening or taking the advice from the Chinese WHO? Don't wear masks, don't limit travel in and out of China/Italy, etc....another useless, beholden, UN affiliated agency headed by a an African commie. Yeah, but lets not make it political?
  • OS
    Oliver S.
    11 July 2020 @ 00:05
    Come on. RV is not even questioning the stats. They are clearly goosed.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    10 July 2020 @ 23:48
    Always, always,always look forward to the Friday briefing!!! I come away with things to ponder and chew on. Couple things slide by in the talk. - why is the Fed curtailing its activities now? I have seen this mentioned other places. - the Friday futures pre-open looked like they were going to follow up on Thursday action and blast a hole in the markets. But the Gilead news was like a stick save, very much like the trade deals/phases announced when the markets were ready to spiral downward in 2019. Curious how headline driven the markets are and that they would hold up today when the announcement was less than stellar (IMO). In any case, the DJ Transports barely moved for the week so that's the tell, again IMO.
    • CR
      Cory R.
      11 July 2020 @ 00:03
      "- why is the Fed curtailing its activities now? I have seen this mentioned other places." Because the stock market is going crazy.
  • OS
    Oliver S.
    10 July 2020 @ 23:49
    OK. Let us accept that COVID 19 is goosing stats and little more than the average flu deaths.
  • GS
    Gary S.
    10 July 2020 @ 23:37
    i think Raoul will get smoked on the banks..hope im wrong, really do
    • MC
      Michael C.
      10 July 2020 @ 23:48
      what's your premise?
  • GB
    Griffin B.
    10 July 2020 @ 23:39
    Is there a way to watch the Crypto Gathering vids in higher speed? Thanks, great RVDB here today!
  • JH
    Jacqueline H.
    10 July 2020 @ 23:38
    Raoul, considering your and Ash's conversation in this video, could that alligator skull over your right shoulder be called Freudian Decor (ergo, market jaws start closing next week)? You and Ash make it a good and safe weekend.
  • GS
    Gary S.
    10 July 2020 @ 23:37
    .
  • FG
    Flavio G.
    10 July 2020 @ 23:36
    Cayman did so well because it's tiny, rich and it's an island. Not because it's following WHO guidelines (which included wearing no masks a while ago).
  • MD
    Matt D.
    10 July 2020 @ 23:31
    Great interview Raoul and Ash, thanks. I'm reminded of an interview I heard by Prof Ian Frazer here in Australia talking about the virus and saying that there's a good chance there won't be a vaccine for a long time (and lifelong protection probably impossible) - it is made harder because the regions where the virus attacks (nose and throat) are more like the surface of our skin as far as our immune system is concerned which complicates things. Interesting that Australia and Cayman did similar things - we allowed people to access their retirement savings early ($10,000 with criteria for access). From our outbreak in Melbourne too, you can see that globally it will only take one rogue nation to upset things for everyone. Interesting too that Australian banks are still strongly priced/valued (even though some have deferred dividend payments this half) and we have our own local Tesla-esque with Afterpay going gangbusters. The OTM options and Tesla is interesting. Sorry few random detours. Crocodile or alligator skull ? The comment section is divided. Cheers lads. Enjoy the wahoo!
  • NP
    Nathaniel P.
    10 July 2020 @ 23:22
    Amazing talk.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    10 July 2020 @ 23:13
    As spanish I agree with the death rate and how long it takes. My grandma passed away with covid symptoms and positive covid testing and it took time from the first symptoms to the fatal day. However, I think Raoul although the talk about markets we should talk about the death rate in a more ethical way-adding comments like sadly showing some sadness for every human life lost. This is just my opinion.
  • ER
    Ernesto R.
    10 July 2020 @ 23:04
    please as soon as you have all the signals and have complete view of what can happen please share thanks
  • NW
    Nathan W.
    10 July 2020 @ 22:56
    Raoul - please tell me you wrestled that alligator yourself