Daily Briefing – July 16, 2020

Published on
July 16th, 2020
Duration
28 minutes


Daily Briefing – July 16, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Peter Cooper, Ash Bennington, and Ed Harrison

Published on: July 16th, 2020 • Duration: 28 minutes

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the latest jobless claims numbers and its particular significance this week. They start off by discussing Ed's latest interview with Robert P. Murphy and Austrian economics. They then distinguish the difference between non-seasonally adjusted data and seasonally adjusted data and why that's critical to understand the news coverage of this week's jobless numbers. Ed and Ash end their discussion on Bank of America's earnings, why several major US banks have had mixed results this week, and what it says about the embedded inequalities in the system. In the intro, Peter Cooper discusses California Resources and why their bankruptcy is a foreshadowing for companies who are in trouble and are tapping into credit markets to carry them through the pandemic.

Comments

Transcript

  • BB
    Benjamin B.
    21 July 2020 @ 21:09
    Can we get some numbers and evidence that the tax cuts all went to the rich?
  • JJ
    John J.
    19 July 2020 @ 19:52
    Go Ed! Loved the rants. You are spot on and this message needs to get out to a broader segment of the population. Excellent DB.
  • RK
    Robert K.
    17 July 2020 @ 01:45
    I wish Peter Cooper would give all the hand gestures a rest. Very distracting, and speaks too softly.
    • CS
      Christopher S.
      17 July 2020 @ 04:57
      Strongly disagree. While we should be evaluating analysis and opinion and not aesthetics (and RV has the best analysis and opinions around), aesthetically Peter has an air of conciseness, and on the whole all Peter, Nick, and Jack do a fine job,
    • KB
      Keith B.
      17 July 2020 @ 06:31
      Yes, but that shirt is fantastic
    • MM
      Michael M.
      19 July 2020 @ 04:52
      I agree re: the hand gestures. They seem mechanical and are distracting. Otherwise enjoy Peter's reports.
  • RD
    Riki D.
    18 July 2020 @ 01:14
    An excellent conversation gents! COVID19 obviously has multiple dimensions, but one on the health front which is still emerging, is the scale that it attacks the whole body. The following provides some insights into what that looks like, but suffice to say, death from acute respiratory distress syndrome is only the tip of the iceberg. For those who survive, multiple complications remain which will challenge everyday existence. https://www.eatthis.com/fauci-post-covid-syndrome/ The short story for those who ignorantly thumb their nose at it for what ever reason they idealogically or conspiratorially conjure, the quality of your thinking is about to be asked the question. From the outside, the blatant and rampant alternative reality thesis in the US is utterly incredulous. Stafe safe America, the World is counting on it!
  • MT
    Mark T.
    17 July 2020 @ 19:49
    Love your honestly Ed. The system isn't rigged, it's working exactly as it was designed to do... keep the rich Boomers whole.
  • OC
    O C.
    17 July 2020 @ 19:24
    Captions, please.
  • LW
    Lee W.
    17 July 2020 @ 16:53
    Bravo guys!
  • AD
    Antonio D.
    17 July 2020 @ 16:27
    Ed, no need to qualify and minimize what you say as a "rant" - they are your views, fair, valid. Keep them coming and share with us your opinions. That is why we are here.
  • ZK
    Zoltan K.
    17 July 2020 @ 15:22
    Cannot agree more with Ed Harrison’a view on both the lousiness of financial journalism these days and most importantly on the shortsighted view of policy response that in the long run will further widen the gap between the poor and the rich. This is very dangerous as it increases the number of people in the sociaty who will have less and less to lose. A wide road straight towards the political exteme that are waiting with arms wide open on either far left or far right ... we have seen this movie before .
  • AP
    Alfonso P.
    17 July 2020 @ 13:46
    excellent DB especially the last 5 mins, reality will catch up sooner or later.
  • TR
    Thomas R.
    17 July 2020 @ 13:17
    Easy Ed. Manipulating data has been the de facto policy for the past 30 years. Hopefully that will be corrected thru technology in the next “reset”, but I applaud your vigor. Vincit omnia veritas! BTW: I fully enjoy Peter “the Chameleon” Cooper’s DB intros. I believe RV’s style and delivery is as important as the content. RV is cool, hip, heterogeneous and eminently fair. A much welcome change to all news & reporting.
  • AA
    Adam A.
    17 July 2020 @ 11:24
    Same as many others I appreciate the increasingly candid expressions. Some of what we see now is so extreme, much is lost if we are too restrained and dispassionate in describing it. Further, it may not be just that it is a time of extremes, but it may be, just maybe, a time of system transition. And that requires more normative thinking. There is good and bad, right and wrong in how the markets and economics work after all.
  • DO
    DIOGO O.
    17 July 2020 @ 11:05
    Regarding the subject of Economics, some points must be highlighted, in my opinion: 1) Austrian Economics (i study it ever since 2009) has many interesting points. Howeve, it is UNCOMPLETE! Without Prof. Richard Werner's disagreggation of Credit points, onde CANNOT fully comprehend the businesse cycle. For God's sake, the Austrians always talk about the excess credit generate by artificially low interest rates, BUT THEY NEVER TOUCH THE STRUCTURE OF THE CREDIT, which mean, FOR WHAT PORPOSE IS THE CREDIT BEEN USED FOR: productive investment, consumption or speculation. Without that discussion, tha Austrians will REMAIN incomplete, as has been ever since Von Misses....and will remain sideline of economic history. 2) The Austrina view on MONEY is also incomplete. They NEED to study Prof. Richard Werner urgently. And, their hiding of the deleterious effects of the Gold Standard (they only point its benefits) is MISLEADING and PERVERSE. Great Daily Briefing! Keep up the good work guys!
  • AB
    Andrew B.
    17 July 2020 @ 09:15
    These daily briefings keep getting better.
  • AH
    Alan H.
    17 July 2020 @ 08:09
    Hi Ash/Ed, great shows. Thought you'd be interested to see this model I created tracking new US COVID cases vs deaths. Until July 14, when White House took control of data from the CDC, deaths appear to have reached a "permanently low plateau". See: https://www.screencast.com/t/gLVU5fvrm I'm sure it's just a coincidence!
  • ab
    alfred b.
    17 July 2020 @ 07:16
    Hi Gents. Love your shows. Many thanks. Talking precious metals here, specifically gold. In context to the recent rage against the machine what are your comments relating to this gold bug report. Although I havent cross checked the citations yet, it appears to be well researched, and is a an argument that at least a shadow gold reserve system is largely in place. I doubt that USA would allow it without kicking and screaming but it is certainly worth a debate? https://seekingalpha.com/article/4358798-europe-preparing-global-gold-standard-since-1970s
  • HF
    Hector F.
    17 July 2020 @ 07:07
    Great work, fellas. The closing banter had me in stitches. "It's about time, Ash." Ha! Classic.
  • KB
    Keith B.
    17 July 2020 @ 06:39
    The Austrian idea that the gold standard is protection from the excesses of one’s government equivalent to the bill of rights was an eye opener to me, I had not considered that.
  • JL
    James L.
    17 July 2020 @ 05:33
    Should get Tom Wood on as well for views on Austrian economics and economic history.
    • KB
      Keith B.
      17 July 2020 @ 06:36
      Plus more from Niall Ferguson please
  • DR
    Danilo R.
    17 July 2020 @ 06:15
    The US equity thanks to fed liquidity is almost sentiment driven. We have banks that cater to the 1% and the banks that serve Main Street Which have been hammered. I don’t agree with Ed’s thesis that UBI will fix all ills in the economy, I fear it creates more social inequality in the future. Getting people to depend on government handouts, a fed facing inflation but unable to raise rates because debt issued from UBI and a massive balance sheet and our upcoming inflection of 2024 when we should have a major spike in labor participants make UBI the unsustainable route. Capitalism brings immediate pain, but places resources to the most productive sectors of the economy.
  • SV
    Stephen V.
    17 July 2020 @ 04:31
    Your vote for a fix - BTC
  • JL
    John L.
    17 July 2020 @ 03:43
    Enjoyed the call outs but somewhere I missed the proposals of how to fix the problem!
    • CR
      Cory R.
      17 July 2020 @ 04:14
      Great point. I would tend to trust in the general wisdom of our leaders and my hope is they will finally come through with a major infrastructure and energy program for the continental North America.
  • MD
    Matt D.
    17 July 2020 @ 04:13
    Like the ending - ".... it's about time Ash". Its good to be able to laugh even when everything is going pearshaped.
  • IM
    Ian M.
    17 July 2020 @ 03:36
    A great conversation and briefing! As always. Thank you for the facts and sharing what’s on your minds. Keep it coming! And here’s to hoping that the challenges to come will eventually bring positive changes, and a rebalancing in the system.
  • AP
    Ash P.
    17 July 2020 @ 03:14
    Amen.
  • KC
    Kurt C.
    17 July 2020 @ 02:37
    A message and question to Ed: While the contrast of a moribund economy and rising financial markets is striking, I don’t think it is helpful to decry the latter. A more constructive approach is to ask the question: Compared to what?. Rising equity values, ample liquidity, tightening spreads and loose credit conditions, combined with loan forbearance programs and material income support programs for those with the greatest propensity to spend, are enabling our economy to avoid an even worse economic calamity. Of course, there is room for improvement - a Fed/Treasury-backed program to reshore industrial production and develop new or repair US infrastructure, would get capital into the real economy and drive incomes for households and businesses. A pandemic combined with collapsed asset prices, tight liquidity, wide spreads and tight credit would be even worse, like 1929-33. I’d rather have this than that.
    • JD
      Jesse D.
      17 July 2020 @ 02:53
      Buying bonds of companies that deserve to be bankrupt is broken policy. Why pay trillions to companies that don’t contribute to a better society? Failure is capitalism, this is not capitilism.
  • SP
    Saxon P.
    16 July 2020 @ 22:39
    Hi RV Team, Appreciate your insights on the Daily Briefing and access RV! Would love to see Brad Garlinghouse or David Schwartz from Ripple interviewed re blockchain use cases for cross border payments and transfers. And their relationship with SBI, Moneygram and central banks.
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      17 July 2020 @ 02:44
      Yes!!!
  • SE
    Seth E.
    17 July 2020 @ 02:33
    Ed, thank you for telling it like it is. Your last few daily briefings have been exceptional. Please keep going rouge.
    • RB
      Robert B.
      17 July 2020 @ 02:38
      Please, please keep going rouge Ed. Rouge and unhinged Ed is the best Ed
  • RB
    Robert B.
    17 July 2020 @ 02:37
    Great conversation today, Ash and Ed! I really appreciated your honesty in letting your thoughts rip today. I've been feeling incredibly disillusioned with the government and the Fed's moves since March, and it's so refreshing to hear these no holds barred views on what is really going on. I am all for the rants and hot takes! Bravo today.
  • SD
    Simeon D.
    17 July 2020 @ 02:30
    Haha! Ed makes me laugh! Loved when he said others were just plain lazy. Ash is speaking his mind a little more. This is fantastic.
  • MC
    Mark C.
    17 July 2020 @ 02:28
    I think the system is changing. I mean it could stay the same? But, really, how can it. I am at Realvision to find out the when, why, and how. Thanks guys. Loved this show.
  • mB
    marc B.
    17 July 2020 @ 02:06
    Love the rants. Great convo today. One of the best!
  • DB
    Donna B.
    17 July 2020 @ 01:58
    Ed "rants" intelligently.
  • TS
    Tom S.
    17 July 2020 @ 01:58
    Bravo Ash!
  • JD
    James D.
    17 July 2020 @ 01:45
    I love the new good cop/bad cop set up. Ed shows exactly why you don't have to be a raving marxist to admit that the current system is indeed broken and not serving the purpose it was originally intended to. I think a lot of traditional free market and capitalist advocates (myself included) are reluctant to do exactly that in fear that the only alternative is a radical left command economy. I think it's time for the brave capitalists amongst us to acknowledge that because there is always more than two options... I vote for Ed to lead the way!
  • dw
    douglas w.
    17 July 2020 @ 01:40
    Everyone knows many aspects of markets defy fundamentals and are bs / "rigged" -Don't hate the player hate the game- is something that comes to mind.. But! if you don't call BS out from time to time like Ash and Ed have done this afternoon, its hard to return to other interviews with the clarity and mind space necessary to take in it's thoughtful content. So I warmly welcome this type of discourse throughout RV and especially in a daily briefing. To only focus on the financial markets without acknowledging how our world is impacted by these decisions, would make RV feel flat. Kudos guys, keep it up, cuz s$%t is about to get stranger, and we need your voices to reflect what is happening on the street.
  • AG
    Anthony G.
    17 July 2020 @ 00:42
    Ranting about a broken system isn’t interesting or helpful. Investors and entrepreneurs are interested in solutions. This is your target audience.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      17 July 2020 @ 01:10
      The system needs a reboot. It should have happened 2008-2009 but didn't. If capitalism is the hardware, and the US system, German system, Japanese system, etc, are the software. The US needs new software. We can invent it and make something new or go toward other OSes. The new system is a still form capitalism. It's going to have to happen. Acknowledging that the things are broken and failing citizens is a step toward discussing what's and trying to get the elites to change.
    • jR
      james R.
      17 July 2020 @ 01:37
      Spot on Dude, such negativity in general from Ed rather than practicable / actionable investing ideas.
  • OT
    Onsi T.
    17 July 2020 @ 01:31
    I love Ed!
    • JI
      JWD I.
      17 July 2020 @ 01:34
      He’s the man...they are all great! Appreciate RV so much.
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    17 July 2020 @ 01:33
    One datapoint doesn't make a trend... Let's see what the unemployment numbers are next week
  • GL
    Gustavo L.
    16 July 2020 @ 23:41
    For 8 yrs we pumped the market non stop... 1:1 correlation almost . All assets inflated. They just discovered this was wrong..??... Maybe somebody should call the Fed and let them know... I keep hearing folks defend Bernabé Yellen & Co.
    • jR
      james R.
      17 July 2020 @ 01:29
      QE 1 started in 2009, so I'd say 11 years.
  • BD
    Ben D.
    17 July 2020 @ 01:21
    Today's briefing was extremely informative so thanks ed. Does anyone have a link to the JPM study mentioned in today's show about the spending habits of different income brackets because it sounds like an interesting piece of information. Also I dont think its said enough but if Max W. Sees this he books really good guests that haven't been on RV before so I thought I'd bring that up.
  • JH
    Jacqueline H.
    16 July 2020 @ 23:42
    Pitchforks and torches coming...
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      17 July 2020 @ 01:16
      Yes. The pitchforks and torchers are coming. The elites in the US have proven themselves incapable of change. They hardly even throw bones to quiet the population. They don't read books. There are lots of narratives about what the next steps are. They'll burn the place down before making any concessions. It is time for new elites.
  • JS
    John S.
    17 July 2020 @ 00:16
    The US is a kleptocracy
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      17 July 2020 @ 01:13
      We've been in the process of being looted since, what, the 1980s? It started slow. The last few years have seen a rush of the elites to extract all they can.
  • JF
    John F.
    17 July 2020 @ 01:13
    Ed brought the pain today. I like it. Speak truth to power.
  • mp
    mitchell p.
    17 July 2020 @ 00:49
    Who dislikes these videos? GTFO
  • RM
    Robert M.
    17 July 2020 @ 00:00
    Financial reporters are a generally hardworking diligent group. Really? Ash, I take it you don't read Bloomberg, WSJ or Marketwatch, their reporting is the most biased one eyed rubbish with a bias to highlight the positive coupled with completely misleading headlines that are rarely born out by the actual data.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      17 July 2020 @ 00:02
      Great job Ed! You nailed it.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      17 July 2020 @ 00:44
      I didn’t say that they had great judgment...
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      17 July 2020 @ 00:48
      Most of the failings I see in financial journalism, I would say, come from groupthink, structural failings, and lack of insight or knowledge.
  • AD
    Adrian D.
    17 July 2020 @ 00:44
    Ed is fired up, love it! Speak the truth and accept the reality, only then can you move forward.
  • JF
    John F.
    17 July 2020 @ 00:44
    Have you tried to get John Hussman on Realvision?
  • DL
    David L.
    17 July 2020 @ 00:26
    Thanks for the analysis of the unemployment numbers. The WSJ talked mostly about seasonally adjusted numbers and seemed to report a slight improvement. Your numbers bring a different perspective and add clarity. As Wolf Richter summarizes: "the situation remains catastrophic"
  • DM
    Don M.
    17 July 2020 @ 00:15
    Call it like it is Ed - being diplomatic is fine as long as it doesn't hide the deception.
  • RL
    Renee L.
    17 July 2020 @ 00:05
    Correct guys- the model is broken and Satoshi knew that back over 10 years ago!
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    17 July 2020 @ 00:03
    The idea that bailing out the rich will help everyone else is just a modern restatement of the trickle-down economics of the 80s. Although the claims to this effect are made, I don't think anyone actually believes them, it's just that wealth can buy a lot of votes and time on the mainstream media. What we really need today are effective advocates for Schumpeter's creative destruction, i.e., letting zombie companies actually die and be buried.
  • BK
    Brian K.
    16 July 2020 @ 23:56
    Harrison -2024
  • GL
    Gary L.
    16 July 2020 @ 23:52
    Hi RV Team. Gary in Madison here... my main trading/investing interest is in precious metals stocks. Along with some physical. Can you please bring us some interviews about the PM sector. Greg Weldon comes to mind. That sector has been, perhaps, a bit too hot lately... for good reasons! I'm disabled as a result of a terrible accident... your Real Vision Service is one of the great blessings in my life. Thanks for your sage-like input! kind regards, Gary in Madison WI.
  • BK
    Bruce K.
    16 July 2020 @ 23:33
    "Let me just be a bit more undiplomatic..." LOVE IT. Go get 'em Ed!
  • DR
    Dave R.
    16 July 2020 @ 23:28
    Keep going rogue... it's great
  • BT
    Billy T.
    16 July 2020 @ 23:23
    Love the rants.
  • RG
    Ryan G.
    16 July 2020 @ 23:16
    Ed, It's not "laziness" so much as choosing to see things they way they want too..