Daily Briefing – July 17, 2020

Published on
July 17th, 2020
Duration
34 minutes


Daily Briefing – July 17, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Raoul Pal

Published on: July 17th, 2020 • Duration: 34 minutes

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington to reflect on weakness in the banking sector and the odd flatness that has characterized the market for the past month. Raoul gives a taste of "Afterhours with Raoul," in which he goes over how to build a macro framework and size position. Raoul and Ash also explore whether the Fed is suppressing volatility and take a look at CLOs through the lens of the most recent episode of Ahead of the Curve. In the intro, Jack examines Netflix’s plunge and the 30-year mortgage rate reaching an all-time low.

Comments

Transcript

  • MK
    Mihhail K.
    22 July 2020 @ 11:38
    Where can I read/watch about this GMI pattern Raoul was mentioning?
  • gd
    guv d.
    18 July 2020 @ 08:23
    lumberjack!
    • SS
      Stephen S.
      18 July 2020 @ 15:05
      with short sleeves, no less.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      18 July 2020 @ 18:49
      I’ve been turning the air conditioning off before we film because you can hair the A/C buzz in the background. It’s getting hot & humid in nyc! lol
    • CR
      Cory R.
      19 July 2020 @ 01:36
      Hey Ash B., what brand of shirt is that may I ask? I want to get some for myself.
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      20 July 2020 @ 20:56
      Ash's long sleeves look like those I bought @ Nordstrom maybe 5 years ago; got free tailoring for them too :)
  • HC
    Hahns C.
    20 July 2020 @ 16:01
    Banks are not immune to the acceleration of change. I believe that COVID-19 epidemic has accelerated massive changes to all sectors of all markets and all social demographics. The new hero generation now comes of age and replaces the nomad in the Crisis "4th Turning" Phase. Banks created a generational financial crisis now COVID is solving it. Branch and larger banks were slowly on their way out dating back to 2009. People stopped visiting branches as banking moved online. Post COVID - online bank transactions begs for centralization and digitization of currency transactions. Behind the scenes a US Dollar Digital Coin is in motion - this will eliminate cash dollar bills with a wallet managed by digital bankers. On another subject - I wish you guys would stop with the narrative that the Equity Market is a proxy to the overall economy. Equity markets are a proxy to LARGE scale investors and BIG BIG businesses not the immediate economy. Forward looking retails sales will resume once a vaccine is disseminated starting in Oct 2020. This is the republican October surprise coming to a TV ad near you.
  • MR
    MARK R.
    18 July 2020 @ 17:10
    I remember million dollar traders on bbc1 with Lex Van Dam. Wow Raoul has been about ! Good show I wonder what Lex is up to now
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 July 2020 @ 21:02
      He runs a large family office amongst other things...
    • GD
      Giles D.
      20 July 2020 @ 14:25
      I’d also like to see how to contenders are doing now!
  • PF
    Patrick F.
    20 July 2020 @ 12:55
    Raoul and team, Love the content but my neck has been killing me having to watch everything on my phone. Are there plans to get Chromecast support in the app back for Android phones? Thanks
  • SH
    Sahil H.
    20 July 2020 @ 03:25
    Thanks this was another great update. I'm really enjoying these Friday DBs. Looking at the BKX from a TA point of view it looks almost like its forming an almost textbook bear flag on the daily time frame (with the exception of the 5 days it pushed up above 83).
    • ES
      Edward S.
      20 July 2020 @ 10:36
      What broker/platform can you use to trade BKX? It doesn't seem to be available on mine.
  • BF
    Bret F.
    20 July 2020 @ 09:21
    Raoul thoughts about how people react needs more attention. Here in Indianapolis on pace to double 2019 shootings,murders etc. besides the 4 year political divide. Now people are so wound up, mask or no mask is a hate thing, over the weekend our state fair became a shooting zone, 100s of KIDS rushed the gates for access. This one sounds foolish our Halloween festival was canceled (60-80k attendance) people actually live here for this and Christmas activates, The mood is very melancholy, Besides historical home prices in 2017-2019 never a house lasting 2 minutes on market, now there all in the hole. Many jobless .... Lots enjoying unemployment with visions of 1200 more dollars
  • ST
    Steven T.
    19 July 2020 @ 17:50
    Ron Zacappa XO sitting in the background... fantastic choice!!
  • EC
    Enrique C.
    19 July 2020 @ 15:45
    If I take that the 10 year goes negative (as in Europe), then using the negative denominator means equities are worth an infinite amount?
  • JM
    Jacques M.
    19 July 2020 @ 08:43
    If the banking system is at risk; how safe is it to hold your cash in deposits? Cypress banks confiscations and bail-ins comes to mind...
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      19 July 2020 @ 12:23
      I don't think its at risk... it will be backstopped if it gets bad.
  • AL
    Aaron L.
    18 July 2020 @ 02:19
    Raoul talking about trade size, portfolio construction, risk/reward, correlations/volatility is absolute RV magic. Look, talking to experts is great to get insight into a topic and RV does a first class job at that. But remember that Kyle Bass’ first question to John B was how do you size your trades. So beginners to pros want to know how to do this better. So if you had a session on showing some real examples of portfolio construction, I think viewership would spike. That is the secret sauce that RV hasn’t yet capitalised on, given the deep bench of talent. So please take this request under consideration. Have a good one guys, cheers
    • CR
      Cory R.
      18 July 2020 @ 02:35
      Aaron L., I agree with you 100%. It would be great to have a pro sit down and run through the absolute basics of portfolio construction along with a few historical examples for good measure. I was just hoping to pick up this type of information by osmosis by constantly watching a lot of RV presentations. Something I learned relatively recently is buying and selling in tranches. Very hard to do let me tell you, it takes a lot of inner strength not to schlock the whole position down in one big conviction trade. Good investing my friend.
    • PR
      Prashanth R.
      18 July 2020 @ 02:37
      I absolutely agree with you Aaron and Cory. What is great about watching real vision has been that I am learning to build a framework. It would be great to also Lear to build a trading and investment strategy. Hoping the RV team is reading this and will take our requests.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 July 2020 @ 11:37
      Yes, listening and hearing loud and clear. Big things are already planned...
    • ES
      Edward S.
      19 July 2020 @ 10:07
      Agree 100%. A practical guide would be brilliant.
  • SB
    Simon B.
    19 July 2020 @ 08:56
    Raoul love your work !
  • JM
    Jacques M.
    19 July 2020 @ 08:43
    If the banking system is at risk; how safe is it to hold your cash in deposits? Cypress banks confiscations and bail-ins comes to mind...
  • CR
    Cory R.
    19 July 2020 @ 08:33
    When I see today's landscape I say to myself "it is what it is" Is Raoul the replacement for Sumner Redstone? Perhaps.. according to a perspective. Is Raoul a replacement for Becky Quick? Perhaps.. One thing I know is this.. is that technology is truly deflationary and it promotes a kind of tribalism because networks such as RV need to be tribal in order to succeed. Bloomberg and the like will be bankrupt in 10 years because who gives a shit about random financial stories about the markets that project a certain outlook and mindset at the expense of the truth. So is the truth deflationary? Perhaps. Wishing all of you reading this much success in your investing and much success in your personal life and your spiritual progress. Cheers. CWR
  • RE
    Renato E.
    19 July 2020 @ 08:29
    @RV: have you looked into the potential disaster looming in China regarding the massive floodings? If the Three Gorges Dam fails, as some experts say it might, you have another black swan event in the next few days or weeks. The floodings are horrible already. I'm surprised the event hasn't been picked up by the Western media... scratch that last sentence. Kyle Bass tweetet about it recently: "The scary reality is that the overwhelming majority of chinese (and therefore US) pharmaceutical production is located on the Yangtze River just below the creaking dam. If it breaks, it could be a catastrophe for the people of china AND the United States".
  • PD
    Paul D.
    18 July 2020 @ 10:20
    Decanter on the pool table? Come on Raoul get your act together! 🤣🤣🤣
    • CR
      Cory R.
      19 July 2020 @ 01:15
      Paul D., all I will say is.. the cue ball is in a whiskey glass. You will have to do the fundamental analysis what that means 🤣
  • PD
    Peter D.
    18 July 2020 @ 03:43
    Nice rum Raoul, where can I get a glass of that??
    • BB
      Ben B.
      18 July 2020 @ 23:31
      Looks like Ron Zacapa XO
  • EM
    Eivind M.
    18 July 2020 @ 09:16
    RealVision: Raoul should have a conversation with Jeff Snider about what is going on with banks, central banks and shadow banking :)
    • DO
      DIOGO O.
      18 July 2020 @ 10:26
      Yeap, Jeff and Raoul woudl be A.W.E.S.O.M.E.
    • mb
      michael b.
      18 July 2020 @ 21:26
      Jeff can be difficult to nail down and it is often difficult to understand either his conclusion, how he arrived there, or both. I appreciate his work but I often have an easier time sorting out what Chewbacca is trying to say.
    • SN
      SAT N.
      18 July 2020 @ 23:11
      @michael. I agree, and that is why Jeff needs to be poked deeper to figure out how he reached the conclusion that Fed is all smoke-and-mirrors, effectively playing a con job to get inflation up. He seems to know more about euro$, and often appears frustrated that others don't seem to get what is obvious to him.
  • MJ
    Milenko J.
    18 July 2020 @ 18:43
    Would be very interesting to see Raoul discuss the European banking system with prof. Tuomas Malinen, CEO GnS Economics. Tuomas has been doing research on European banks for 12 years.
  • UJ
    Ulf J.
    18 July 2020 @ 08:21
    I love this Fridays talk, Bitcoin moving sideways but Chainlink is moving higher.
    • MG
      Manish G.
      18 July 2020 @ 18:12
      Yes, while Chainlink is moving higher, Ampleforth is on a tear, literally fire.
  • JE
    Jonathan E.
    18 July 2020 @ 16:31
    Ive only been a RVDB viwer for a few months but this one was the best yet. Brilliant stuff guys.
    • JE
      Jonathan E.
      18 July 2020 @ 16:33
      Am going to get the Missus to watch the Retirement Crisis video. Cant wait to live in a trailer with the outlaws.
  • WA
    Wissam A.
    18 July 2020 @ 06:52
    Raoul it has been a long time since we had Brent Johnson VS. Luke Gromen. Can we get these two lovely gentlemen for another discussion on the end game? Perhaps Roger or Ed to conduct the interview?
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      18 July 2020 @ 16:30
      Stay tuned for next Friday...
  • KR
    Kartik R.
    18 July 2020 @ 01:12
    I am a big fan of Real Vision. It's an excellent platform hosting varying perspectives and ideas. However, I do not find enough insights to build a portfolio or a trading process. Thanks to Real Vision, I was introduced to Hedgeye - it's been the best investing decision I have ever made. Lost money in the crash of March and realized that I do not have a trading process, asset allocation mix, factor exposures, etc. Hedgeye and Keith McCullough have solved it for me - this is a world of Quants & Algos. Valuation metrics, charting methods, "feeling-based" portfolio construction, etc. do not work in today's age. The machines are here to stay. Create a process built on economic data (growth / inflation) and related asset volatility/exposures and you will see real results in your portfolio. Keith and Raoul are the Druckenmiller and Jim Simons of our generation. Kudos to these entrepreneurs for giving the Retail investor access to world-class financial insights. They have already beaten the likes of Druckenmiller and Buffet in this economic crash (bonds & gold have killed it!). I think the baton has passed from Jordan to Kobe.
    • GB
      Griffin B.
      18 July 2020 @ 02:27
      What services do you use from there?
    • NJ
      Nimitt J.
      18 July 2020 @ 03:46
      I agree... I really wish RV can create a platform where we can pool in the our funds based on trade options influenced by GMI strategies and then watch the videos since we all now have more time on our hands. It's a win win.
    • KR
      Kartik R.
      18 July 2020 @ 15:19
      @Griffin B. I subscribe to the Macro Show and Early Look.
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    18 July 2020 @ 15:05
    Excellent discussion! Thank you.
  • RH
    Richard H.
    18 July 2020 @ 06:31
    Haha..my friend was a contestant on Million Dollar Traders. Didn't know Raoul was involved with that show.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 July 2020 @ 11:38
      I build a large part of the training program for Lex and trained many of the contestants. I make a small cameo only...
  • MT
    Mark T.
    18 July 2020 @ 07:48
    Great interview - enjoyed the structured products gag :-)
  • CM
    Colin M.
    18 July 2020 @ 05:15
    Bank Indexes look like energy (BKX vs XLE)
  • SS
    Sherry S.
    18 July 2020 @ 03:49
    What does Raoul mean by inverse @ 23.40?
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      18 July 2020 @ 04:58
      Upside-down V
  • CR
    Cory R.
    17 July 2020 @ 22:28
    How great it is we have this resource. Thanks for a good Friday briefing guys! BTW, would love to know a few of Raoul's favorite drinks.. loving the cue ball placement 🤣
    • LF
      Liam F.
      18 July 2020 @ 00:42
      Zacapa? Oh yeah bay-beee!
    • AH
      Andrew H.
      18 July 2020 @ 03:06
      here you go... https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1256049172534431745?s=20 Pinned this when it first surfaced and slowly making my way through the list :)
    • CR
      Cory R.
      18 July 2020 @ 04:49
      Andrew H., oh wow! You are a resourceful guy.. thanks!
  • BB
    Bob B.
    18 July 2020 @ 04:04
    Everybody points to Apple's and Microsoft's cash positions. Q Where do they park their billions? Are they two companies in each - one a business the other a hedge fund?
  • MJ
    Marc J.
    18 July 2020 @ 03:50
    Am new to finance but it seems to me that if interest rates rise, this is the debt jubilee that has been talked about which will wipe out all but the central banks. Am I way off mark here?
    • MJ
      Marc J.
      18 July 2020 @ 03:59
      I should say, an essential debt jubilee, not an official one.
  • NJ
    Nimitt J.
    18 July 2020 @ 03:13
    Looks likes Raoul's bet is working... the fossil is replaced with party materials. :)
  • VN
    Vitali N.
    18 July 2020 @ 02:26
    is it true that issuers of CLO's have to retain a percentage of issuance? If so, who are the largest issuers?
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    18 July 2020 @ 02:18
    on more serious note.. thank you guys for another very informative Daily Briefing.
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    18 July 2020 @ 02:17
    now that Raoul declared all is calm and nothing moves.. Monday comes and all hell breaks loose.. lol
  • RR
    Ramon R.
    18 July 2020 @ 01:38
    Ash, Raoul, great daily briefing! There is no better way to start the weekend. Would love to see a discussion at some point about the recent Ray Dalio's articles about the new world order. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/chapter-4-big-cycle-united-states-dollar-part-1-ray-dalio/?trk=eml-email_series_follow_newsletter_01-hero-2-image_link&midToken=AQGv2JXkSDVSMQ&fromEmail=fromEmail&ut=3pZqxP8sJVCVk1 They overlap really well with the long term view presented by Raoul.
  • JI
    JWD I.
    17 July 2020 @ 23:05
    Ash...was thinking something similar regarding the potential use of blockchain during the Chris Whalen / CLO interviews.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      18 July 2020 @ 00:10
      It just seems like a total no-brainer, right?
    • ra
      rehan a.
      18 July 2020 @ 01:09
      It does...until you realise you need dtcc to provide the DLT application.....
  • MI
    Max I.
    17 July 2020 @ 23:26
    Nice Daytona Raoul! Matches your great taste with Zacapa XO on the table - pure class Sir!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      17 July 2020 @ 23:39
      Well, thank you kind sir!
  • SS
    S S.
    17 July 2020 @ 23:24
    Cueball in an empty glass with whiskey. Nice. Reverse psychology probably and we are going to crash in the next week. I cannot believe what I heard in this video. It is obvious that Raoul's dogs have drank half of his rum and emptied his glass and now they are shooting some pool. Skip to 25.00minutes into the video or 08'40 seconds left and listen for the unbelievable shot played by the dogs.
  • DS
    David S.
    17 July 2020 @ 23:16
    Professor Werner's point that the keystone to capitalism is a bank lending to a business for a productive investment. Bank liquidity is not the problem. Much of today's business loans appear to be low interest bridge loans to survive until COVID-19 is gone. The rot in US banking is small and medium businesses cannot forecast revenues. How can you invest in your business when you have no idea or guess of the next year’s revenue? Like the rest of us they are hunkered down waiting for the storm to pass. Much of the money the Fed and Treasury printed just ended up in the stock market, GS, JPM, etc. This may not have been expected by the Fed, but the Treasury and thousands of lobbyists on the hill knew. DLS
  • DS
    Dean S.
    17 July 2020 @ 23:06
    Thanks guys, this feels like Friday beers after work with office colleagues.... just like the “old” days. Very enjoyable. Have a great weekend!
  • NH
    Naser H.
    17 July 2020 @ 22:52
    Thanks for breaking it down like that Raoul about trade sizes.
  • TS
    Tamim S.
    17 July 2020 @ 22:34
    Ash rocking the lumber jack attire today