Thanks William. Currencies is not my specialty and I am always learning so I appreciate your input. It sounds like you know what you're talking about. It's my understanding that pure forward contracts for currencies (outright forwards and non-deliverable forwards) price in current interest rate differentials between currencies (as well as spot rates, of course) but not expected changes in those interest rates. Is it possible you are thinking of cross-currency basis swap? You're definitely right that the narrowing I saw on the chart is a reflection of the interest rate differential. But is it inaccurate to say that a compression of the spread between euro interest rates and dollar interest rates implies an indication of future appreciation in EUR/USD? I'm thinking of the "interest rate parity" I learned in school - but maybe on the trading floor such fanciful notions are not abided? I think of exchange rates and interest rates as space and time for global macro - they are part of the same dimension, i.e. "spacetime." Am I mistaken in this belief? (genuinely asking) I'm interested in your thoughts and expertise on this. You can comment here, or email me at jack@realvision or reach me via the Real Vision fan slack channel. Thanks, Jack

Jack, I've traded a significant amount of spot FX over my career (volumes in the $trillions), along with an awful lot of overnight swaps to roll those FX positions forward from one value date to another. The first thing you learn doing so many currency swaps (where the near leg is spot, and the far leg is a forward), is that the forward points you pay/earn rolling the position has everything to do with the differential interest rates of the two currency legs in the pair over the tenor of the swap (ie the no-arbitrage forward price based on the two interest rates), and nothing to do w perceived future spot moves. You are right that interest rates and FX can be linked, but the relationship isn't linear, and sometimes means different things. For example, think about this: 1) The "carry trade" is when people buy higher yielding currencies vs lower yielding currencies, viewing that supportive capital flows will bid up the held currency, or at least prevent it from depreciating enough to outweigh the yield advantage above the cost of funding. 2) Meanwhile, Purchasing Price Parity (PPP) posits that the highest inflation currency should depreciate vs lower inflation currencies over time to ensure that over time a similar basket of goods should have similar costs across borders in local terms. Extend that a bit, and remember that nominal interest rates are the sum of real interest rates and expected inflation, and you'll see that a country could have a high nominal interest rate due to high inflation, which PPP would view as negative for currency. In such a case, "carry trade" and PPP would be giving diametrically opposed indications about which way the future spot rate would move based on the relevant interest rates. Like I said, it's fine to point out the yield differential between US and EU converging, and by definition, also causing the forward differential to converge. But IMHO, it's best not to take that extra step and imply that change implies as certain expected future spot move. -William

That said, I think you do a great job with your segments. I know you will go very far in your career with your competence, humility, and genuine curiosity. Keep up the good work.

Hi, Partrick. You are correct. Death counts peaked back in April. Unfortunately, the the daily death count is once again rising. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/second-coronavirus-death-surge/614122/

Sorry Patrick. I suggest you watch less MSM and more RV. 😉 Deaths seem to have stopped their decline on national level and appear, on the surface, to be basing. But as referenced elsewhere in these daily briefings, Simpsons Paradox means assumptions based on nationally aggregated data may be wrong, since they don't account for real and significant trends in what are really multiple epidemics (regional) instead of one national epidemic. The dominant trend (rising deaths) is sadly well underway and will be reflected soon enough in the (less informative) national aggregate data. RV looks well beyond MSM soundbites in their analysis. These guys not only highlighted Simpsons Paradox in "falling" death rates a week or more ago, they are among the few (w/ David Rosenberg) to give the more insightful view on unemployment claims, vis a vis, seasonal adjustment nuances. And today both Roseburg and Ed gave an insighful look ahead at claims. I'm w/ Donna B., below.

Excuse me, but the terminology is a little confusing. Does death count refer to the absolute number of deaths? If so, more cases equal more deaths almost per force. Or are we talking about a rate of deaths per 100,000 infected people? I would guess the rate is decreasing due to advances in treatment while the count is increasing. If true, that would mean the virus is becoming less dangerous.

Patrick look up the numbers. Don't rely on MSM or Fox News. Deaths are rising.

The Department of Labor statisticians decide the adjustment factors well in advance. The table being used now goes out to April 2021 I believe. And while the seasonal factors from one year to the next are relatively similar, they’re simply trying to use the most recent years data to tweak the factors so that people can make comparisons across the year without having to worry about the natural seasonality of when people file for unemployment insurance. The problem this year is that the factors built for normal 1x claims are being used on claim counts that are 6x and 7x. So, they end up overwhelming the data flow when adjustment variation is high, such that most of the change in claims is a statistical artifact of the adjustment.

Thank you Ed. Appreciate the clarification.

Agreed. Lot's of chatter about being long commodities at this time, would be interesting to hear their take.

Silver up 6% today

cryptos are unregulated artificial scarcity machines. It's musical chairs and whoever has the biggest stack gets to turn down the music.

It would be interesting to know percentage of usd used for transactions

It's a new and better open financial system while the old one is being pushed to its limits. As we speak defi is growing exponentially and being used for all kinds of innovative financial constructs. The only real caveat is in how governments or companies will inevitably adopt the technology (which they are already doing).

I said "visions of the future." I didn't say those visions would be correct. -Jack

Silver is poor man money Central backs buy gold, people buy silver to protect themselves from inflation Few month ago silver was 12 and it is above 20$ now on a narrative of reflation. It can go up as fast as it goes down. I hold silver now, but it is a trade Gold is investment Silver day to truly shine is few years away

Yes. So ≈ $91,000,000 pizza.

‘The money GPS’ on YouTube is, but that is bear porn. FT is barely mentioning it.

Don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen. I have been waiting for the last 6-8 weeks for a pullback that seems to never come.

And what might cause that "Crash"? I would urge getting-in now.

I have to agree 1,000%.

"Lookin' good Billy Ray". Feeling good Louis". One of my all time favorite movies. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBYCZCGSVmQ)

Its picking up again, it’s a lagging indicator