Daily Briefing – July 24, 2020

Published on
July 24th, 2020
Duration
27 minutes


Daily Briefing – July 24, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Max Wiethe, and Ash Bennington

Published on: July 24th, 2020 • Duration: 27 minutes

Senior editor Ash Bennington is joined by editor Max Wiethe to reflect on a week of divergent price action. Ash and Max analyze the extreme rallies in precious metals, with Max describing his macro framework through the lens of his Real Vision Live interview with Greg Weldon. Ash then explores the rapidly approaching fiscal cliff, which leads into a philosophical discussion on financial journalists’ penchant for making uncertain connections between news headlines and moves in asset prices. Max describes his view on the dollar, and Ash and Max close by examining the dislocations between and within different equity indices. In the intro, Jack Farley goes over the latest economic data and explores the recent bid to rescue Brooks Brothers from bankruptcy.

Comments

Transcript

  • JB
    Joshua B.
    27 July 2020 @ 21:50
    Nice to see Max having a feature spot!
  • SJ
    Sun J.
    25 July 2020 @ 07:05
    Great job, Max! Could you guys do a in depth video on precious metals market? It would be nice to cover some of the following topics: thesis behind investing in precious metals, gold standard, price manipulation, comex delivery, signals for price breakout, etc. Thank you!
    • MK
      Michael K.
      26 July 2020 @ 14:06
      Check out the archives I think they did an impressive documentary about gold including vault and minting press visits.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      26 July 2020 @ 14:07
      And sorry for stepping on your thread but I personally am not looking for technical analysis or trading level signals from RV. RV for me is for thinking and understanding perspectives. There’s a laugh reading signal services with Twitter celebrities and paid Telegram groups. Just my personal opinion.
    • PC
      Paul C.
      27 July 2020 @ 20:24
      There’s some useful material on YouTube as well.
  • HM
    Harold M.
    25 July 2020 @ 20:33
    Max, just stay with your current style. You’re doing a great job. Keep asking the tough questions.
    • AR
      Adam R.
      26 July 2020 @ 07:24
      Agreed, Max is great at asking contrarian questions but it is obvious he doesn’t yet have the breadth of experience that others have on the RV platform.
    • PC
      Paul C.
      27 July 2020 @ 20:22
      He’s rough round the edges, which i quite like, and you can see he has an enthusiasm for his job. Keep up the good work Max.
  • MS
    Marcus S.
    27 July 2020 @ 19:47
    Missed Raoul of course but Max is a fantastic alternative! More, please. And good to hear you are coming back to NYC Max!
  • EL
    Emanuel L.
    25 July 2020 @ 07:35
    Hi fellow viewers, I tried to find the Lyn Alden update on the dollar, but I could not find the video. Do you know where it is? Possibly premium content? Thx, e
    • GM
      Gary M.
      25 July 2020 @ 09:26
      I think it’s yet to be published. If i heard correctly it will be up on Tuesday.
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      25 July 2020 @ 14:26
      You can expect Lyn on Tuesday. Following the return of Mike Green on Monday.
    • EB
      Emmanuel B.
      25 July 2020 @ 18:17
      yup looking forward to Lyn's itw too. She's a gem.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      27 July 2020 @ 09:25
      Lyn is great and such a sharp mind, it would be great to have her in the daily briefings
    • JS
      Jon S.
      27 July 2020 @ 09:58
      I saw on Lyn's website she has a book to chose stocks! I could not hesitate to buy :).
  • JS
    Jon S.
    27 July 2020 @ 09:23
    Max is great – great interview, we do miss Raoul, but this is because we love to hear Raoul, but Max you do it great and he should be given the opportunity to have more interviews, being interviewed. He is the next generation of RV. "Waiting for confirmation of the trend has ended" very wise comments. Congratulations Max.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    27 July 2020 @ 04:11
    Max's version of "Death in Samarra"; Ash, you crack me up.
  • mB
    marc B.
    27 July 2020 @ 03:27
    Max did great. Great review of weeks movements. I’ve trimmed precious metals mostly because I went 35% in early April in port. Will be interesting if dollar goes up for two days and selloff happens and we can buy more. Very speculative tho!
  • SH
    Sahil H.
    27 July 2020 @ 03:11
    Your point about the headlines driving markets is so true. I see this happening ALL the time with Bitcoin. News rarely drives the price of Bitcoin but people will always try to attribute price moves based on what Trump is saying about bitcoin or whatever the next top headline is. In reality, the price is heavily driven by whales getting in and out of their positions, trading against each other in a very low liquidity market. Sometimes they may use headlines as a way to get liquidity from retailers to then push the price in the direction they want. Occasionally scams play a part in this purely for the purpose of scammers liquidating huge positions and skewing the supply demand dynamics. But despite what most people believe you can profitably trade bitcoin purely off TA and never read a crypto headline..
  • SB
    Steve B.
    25 July 2020 @ 03:38
    rate this max guy!
    • LM
      Loren M.
      25 July 2020 @ 04:50
      Glad you brought this up: every time Max Wiethe interviews or provides commentary, I cringe. He sucks and makes me uncomfortable just to listen. Gonna start avoiding any video that he is involved in. C’mon Raoul/RealVision, you can do better.
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      25 July 2020 @ 14:25
      Hi Loren, I’d love feedback on what you think I could improve on. I generally get great reviews from my interviewees but I know there is plenty of room for growth. If it’s just my incredibly punchable face I think you are out of luck.
    • GH
      Garrett H.
      25 July 2020 @ 15:24
      Max is well-spoken albeit less experienced than other hosts, ignore the haters.
    • DS
      David S.
      26 July 2020 @ 22:14
      Keep up the good work Mr. Wiethe! It may be that Ms. Loren M. does not like your position on Bitcoin. It is easily apparent that you work extremely hard for RVTV and do your best for all of us. There are plenty of other videos for Loren M. to watch. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      26 July 2020 @ 23:18
      Sorry. Loren can also be a man's name. I was trying to be respectful with the Ms. If Loren M. is a man, I apologize. DLS
  • ES
    Edward S.
    25 July 2020 @ 14:28
    Anyone know if Raoul's position on dollar strength has changed in light of recent events?
    • SW
      Stephen W.
      25 July 2020 @ 15:42
      He’s hanging on for dear life currently - he’s in wait and see mode but his thesis looks like it is about to be proved incorrect
    • DS
      David S.
      26 July 2020 @ 21:23
      If the dollar drops his gold will go up. DLS
  • GH
    Gloria H.
    25 July 2020 @ 19:02
    C'mon Max, be a cool kid and join us in Brooklyn!
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      25 July 2020 @ 19:56
      I’m most certainly not Brooklyn cool. It’s looking like Nolita at the moment. I’m just a downtown basic millennial at heart. Would love to meet some RVers of NY. Perhaps soon (COVID permitting) we’ll arrange a meet up.
    • MA
      Melanie A.
      26 July 2020 @ 20:47
      Max - if any interest in a studio near Columbus Circle DM me!
  • FC
    Frank C. | Contributor
    26 July 2020 @ 20:17
    Well said, Max.
  • ms
    matthew s.
    26 July 2020 @ 15:05
    i like the point max brought up about a change in correlation. and you can argue the magnitude but i feel it was palpable. it'll be interesting to see where the next two weeks are headed. it feels like a lot of uncertainty out there right now
  • ms
    matthew s.
    26 July 2020 @ 15:05
    i like the point max brought up about a change in correlation. and you can argue the magnitude but i feel it was palpable. it'll be interesting to see where the next two weeks are headed. it feels like a lot of uncertainty out there right now
  • BA
    BURHANUDDIN A.
    25 July 2020 @ 09:05
    Love the recent additions of Max! Coming from Malaysia, I don't think it's over yet for the 1MDB scandal, but it might be the end of Goldman's involvement with their agreeing to the reparations, which look final. There is a possibility of the former Prime Minister Najib being acquitted this month. The political situation with the current Prime Minister is still very fluid.
    • PB
      Patrick B.
      26 July 2020 @ 01:10
      Quite ironic the government getting the GS $$ is essentially the one who stole it...
  • JJ
    John J.
    25 July 2020 @ 18:26
    Great job Max. Always good to hear your perspective. You speak honestly and are a clear thinker.
  • IP
    Ivo P.
    25 July 2020 @ 15:41
    Thanks Max! Great Help!
  • SC
    Sejong C.
    25 July 2020 @ 02:51
    Would a comparison of the gold price drop in March and the strong gold price this week be appropriate? March had a sharp fall in stock prices, and levered investors may have got squeezed out of their gold position. This week's stock prices were just a slight downtrend, and should not have caused a similar effect. If there is another panic selling in the near future, wouldn't it be safer to say that gold prices will also be affected by it?
    • SJ
      Sun J.
      25 July 2020 @ 06:55
      I agree. It's not the same kind of sell off we saw in March. If we see another panic selling in equity, it will cause another sell off in precious metals as many try to cover their margins quickly with less impacted precious metals.
  • SG
    Skyler G.
    24 July 2020 @ 23:37
    Any thoughts on what's going on in Lybia? It wouldn't be "as concerning" if Turkey was not a NATO member.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      25 July 2020 @ 06:39
      It’s irrelevant unless Turkish territory is directly attacked, in which case Turkey can invoke article 5
  • PC
    Paul C.
    25 July 2020 @ 06:34
    Well done, Max
  • AB
    Alastair B.
    25 July 2020 @ 04:03
    Crypto had a good week, when stocks were choppy. This is the one to watch - if bitcoin is correlating more with gold than stocks, it’s game on
    • AA
      Aymman A.
      25 July 2020 @ 04:15
      YES. You are right. I know all the talk about digital gold and 21 million BTC supply. The strange thing is BTC does not trade like a safe haven investment. It moves like a FANG stock with the S&P, Will it now start moving with Gold? That will be a game changer. We shall see!
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      25 July 2020 @ 06:07
      The entry requirements for the fickle masses are very low with crypto - especially when they have got used to Robinhood. Wait for the crowd who get burnt on the tech stocks to turn to crypto after that bubble bursts. If you can get a headline move up in crypto at the same time tech is consolidating, it will be game on like ping pong in Hong Kong.
  • FC
    Frank C.
    25 July 2020 @ 03:55
    Great job Max!
  • AB
    Alastair B.
    25 July 2020 @ 03:40
    ...but their could be other suitors.... oh dear. Nicely done.
  • JM
    James M.
    25 July 2020 @ 02:07
    Cheers guys. Another great end to the week. No need to be so self-deprecating Max: plenty of insightful thoughts with Raoul in absentia!
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    25 July 2020 @ 00:59
    Very good way to finish out the week, thanks Max, Ash & Jack
  • SS
    S S.
    25 July 2020 @ 00:36
    This is the best RVDB since its inception. Great job to all involved
  • CX
    Cindy X.
    25 July 2020 @ 00:35
    Max is very insightful. I like him from his other shows.
  • MC
    Mark C.
    25 July 2020 @ 00:32
    Great update/discussion! More Wiethe is good! Ty
  • PB
    Paul B.
    24 July 2020 @ 22:38
    Recycling Silver is not worth mentioning.....Tech is still strong hence strong Silver demand for Electronics and Medical, and Solar Panels are not set to decline...They don't last anywhere near 20 years before they need replacing, despite the BS. You still can't purchase Silver Bullion or its very hard to get and over Spot, so the demand is Strong on both fronts...Comex can only hang onto that for so long...Early days of the Gold Rally but Silver is going along for the Ride. Add all that up and Silver should have moved to $30 a month or 2 ago....Still a long way to go for Silver.
    • PS
      Paul S.
      25 July 2020 @ 00:28
      Is recycled silver not worth mentioning? Had a look and found some figures, for 2017, 852.1 moz mined, 138.1 moz scrap which I assume, as it is quantified, is recycled? That would be just under 14%. https://www.silverinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/2018WorldSilverSurvey.pdf
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    24 July 2020 @ 23:17
    Great interview. Will point out that risk off was dollar negative in the Feb / March sell off, until it became a liquidity event and yields spiked. This is not new.
  • DS
    David S.
    24 July 2020 @ 23:11
    IMHO the Republicans are not trying to return to the Grand Old Party's values. All of them are trying to be re-elected. President Trump and Congressional Republicans need, want and hope that the economy will get rebooted rapidly. To reboot people must be forced to go back to work. Many Republicans correctly believe that the $600 per week is a major incentive not to go back to work. By eliminating the $600 per week, the Administration and Republicans in Congress are trying to force an improvement in employment. This drive to open the economy was also seen in the early reopening of Florida, Georgia, Texas, Arizona. There are also threats that Federal school funding will be withdrawn if children are not in school each day, or most days. If Children are in school the parents can work. The massive build up in the Treasury balance is money ready to be directly spent toward Republican candidates’ re-election for “legitimate” federal reasons. It is a little over three months to the election. All thought, planning, policy, programs, tweets are directed to one goal - Power. If you are not re-elected no Power. The same is true on the other side of the aisle. The Democrats power base is more the ordinary worker who will no longer get the $600 per week supplement. Democrats need the swing voters in each state to realize that their lives will be better under a Democratic Congress and White House. In the run up to an election everything is about the election – unfortunately. DLS
  • MT
    Mark T.
    24 July 2020 @ 22:16
    Moscow Mitch and the GOP will only act if the stock market goes down. So just wait till we have a really bad week in the markets, then like magic, the UEI benefits premium will be renewed.
    • GF
      Gordon F.
      24 July 2020 @ 23:01
      Trouble is after this week, or maybe next, Congress is on break until September, so if they don't do something before leaving, good luck getting a quorum back to pass anything before early September. And at that point they are all hot and heavy into campaigning, which makes any concerted effort even harder.