Daily Briefing – July 27, 2020

Published on
July 27th, 2020
Duration
30 minutes


Daily Briefing – July 27, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Ed Harrison

Published on: July 27th, 2020 • Duration: 30 minutes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts managing editor, Ed Harrison, to break down the recent price action in gold and bitcoin, and to analyze the health of the U.S. economy as COVID-19 continues to spread. Ash and Ed also consider how the dollar continues to weaken and where rates are headed, as well as speculate on what the next iteration of US fiscal policy will shape up to be. In the intro, Jack Farley takes a look at the plumbing of the gold market.

Comments

Transcript

  • RS
    Rob S.
    29 July 2020 @ 14:40
    great to hear that you are considering having Mish on. Please consider hearing his views on gold. You can start here: https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/gold-is-not-a-function-of-the-us-dollar-nor-is-gold-an-inflation-hedge
  • RM
    Richard M.
    28 July 2020 @ 14:56
    Jack - great intro material! Keep up the good work. Ed - I'm surprised no one mentioned the orchid??? :-)
  • JT
    Jason T.
    28 July 2020 @ 11:53
    That is is is that
  • DH
    Declan H.
    28 July 2020 @ 09:15
    Chelsea? Yuck
  • UJ
    Ulf J.
    28 July 2020 @ 08:24
    Great talks Jack and the guys. One interesting thing about Gold price is the way CPI was calculated in the 80s was different than today and if you look at Shadowstats 1980 Gold record price CPI-adjusted at 80s CPI would be today USD9000 before we are in the record Gold price. I read somewhere that a Scottish football team tested 7 players for covid19 that was with the less expensive test, but with a second test with the 98% accurate test only one player was positive so how many false positive is there out there.
  • jl
    jarron l.
    28 July 2020 @ 01:29
    HAHAHA "I don't even know what a Wolverhampton is."
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      28 July 2020 @ 06:18
      And his life is better for that
  • DR
    Danilo R.
    28 July 2020 @ 05:57
    Gold has been ever since the repo hick up. The recent dollar weakness has enabled gold and silver to break out. We all know smart has decided to not fight the fed and quietly accumulate gold and commodity. We know the treasury wants to devalue the dollar, I am not sure the role of the Eurodollar besides the rates not budging as the currency is the release value. Looking for the Alden piece.
  • MH
    Martin H.
    28 July 2020 @ 04:38
    S&P 2000 to 2020 is + 150% rounded up. Gold is + 550% rounded down. Nobody ever points out that stocks are not at highs inflation adjusted!
  • MH
    Martin H.
    28 July 2020 @ 04:34
    Gold is about confidence and opportunity cost. When both are low gold is high.
  • BC
    Barry C.
    28 July 2020 @ 03:47
    Great discussion. Hey Ed, I would love to see you doing an hour long discussion with Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments....I believe that would be epic, considering Jeff's somewhat out of the box views combined with your knowledge of the bond market.
  • JA
    Jose A.
    28 July 2020 @ 02:42
    RealVision please make a tshirt with Ed's face on it and a text bubble saying: "that is = is that". I would pay bitcoin for it. Love u guys!
    • JA
      Jose A.
      28 July 2020 @ 03:16
      Would have done at least 5 shots tonight if we were all playing allong everytime Ed spoke the words...
  • AS
    Abdul S.
    28 July 2020 @ 01:49
    Chelsea Really Ed?
  • DS
    David S.
    28 July 2020 @ 01:23
    The Senate and Administration Relief Plan has not been debated in the House yet. The Senate HEALS Act also is in the works with a proposed $1,200 check plus extra for families has not been debated in the House yet. Both bills will be addressed ASAP. It is also interesting that the New York State unemployment week ends on July 31st. This allows, if correct, NY unemployed to get one more week of the $600 payment. It would be interesting if NY gets an extra week because of the unemployment ending date. DLS
  • GB
    Germain B.
    28 July 2020 @ 01:19
    Huge Chelsea fan here Ed, love when you drop some premiere league knowledge. Thankful for Giroud resurgence post covid, and captain americas breakthru season. Even more excited for Timo Werner and Ziyech joining our ranks! Last thing: buy gold folks!
  • DS
    David S.
    28 July 2020 @ 00:52
    When the dollar drops, gold shines. In addition, gold is under-owned by family offices as mentioned by Mr. Ollari and many other investors. It feels that much of the $US decline is caused by the inane US response to the virus and massive money printing. When the virus passes - hopefully by summer 2021, the $US and gold will be worth more. The key economic factor in any country after COVID-19 will be the consumer. If the US consumer has money, they will spend. I am not sure that consumers in other countries will create as strong a demand. DLS
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    28 July 2020 @ 00:02
    Regarding breaking up big tech as an answer to the concentration of wealth and jobs.. I don’t see that as a solution, because if you look at the ratio of employees to market cap of these companies, it’s so absurdly skewed compared to traditional industrial American companies like Ford and GM, that even if they are divided a few times, the inequality is still there. The monetizing of digital is just too productive and exponential of a process to address this way.
    • JA
      Jonathan A.
      28 July 2020 @ 00:43
      I’ve heard a phrase about breaking up too-big companies: it’s the only time you cut a pie in six pieces and then end up with six pies. The argument for it would be that each of the new, smaller companies would have to hire and to innovate in a competitive market.
  • SS
    S S.
    27 July 2020 @ 23:56
    Its not an Ash and Ed RVDB unless Ash mentions Credit Writedowns at least once 🤣 For anyone who doesn't know the website is: https://creditwritedowns.com/
  • IZ
    Ileana Z.
    27 July 2020 @ 23:54
    Great point about the geographical concentration of "the only people making money". I would add Wahington, DC! The gravy train aka .GOV is doing very well judging by the wealthiest counties in the nation. x
  • BB
    Bob B.
    27 July 2020 @ 23:34
    Hahahaha People don't trade, especial precious metals, looking at inflation adjusted prices - Highest ever is highest ever. Opening with words like "pet rock" suggests there is "why didn't I own more gold" even floating around. So much for analytics - trading is mostly emotional. I've got some tulips that are trading at century highs but well below inflation adjusted if you interested ;)
    • BB
      Bob B.
      27 July 2020 @ 23:40
      If you call gold a "pet rock" then maybe we should call Tesla "pet paper"? Oh what a lovely war it is!
  • OM
    Owen M.
    27 July 2020 @ 23:38
    Ash, Ivory Soap?!? You gotta step it up to Irish Spring! Nice work fellas. As always.
  • LW
    Lee W.
    27 July 2020 @ 23:37
    Great shoutout to Chelsea, Ed! Oh, and good stuff in the DB too. ;-)
  • BK
    Brian K.
    27 July 2020 @ 23:00
    A great episode about the declining US dollar.
    • KD
      Kenneth D.
      27 July 2020 @ 23:37
      Lyn Alden is spot on!
  • RD
    Riki D.
    27 July 2020 @ 23:37
    DXY pushing through long term support from 2011. EURUSD breaking through its long term resistance from 2008. Silver and Gold spot well out of the gates. Bitcoin breaking above its 2017 downward trend line resistance. GDX, HUI and BGMI all breaking through resistance after building massive bases. 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate (T5YIFR) challenging its downward trendline. TIPs negative. Tech PE's almost as high as dotcom bubble. 4 Faces of Tech fronting up to Congress and a potential political basketball for the left. Feels like a time to play safe. Liquidity crisis solved. Insolvency crisis to come?
  • RM
    Robert M.
    27 July 2020 @ 23:20
    Good job Jack!
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      27 July 2020 @ 23:31
      Thanks Robert! Have fun taking your pet rock on a walk :)
  • LH
    Leigh H.
    27 July 2020 @ 22:37
    very helpful
  • JA
    Jonathan A.
    27 July 2020 @ 22:33
    Thanks as always Ash and Ed! So should we take it as a given that we remain in an inflationary environment? CPI has been down 3 months and up 1 since lockdown. Why do we assume inflation as a given? (And while CPI isn’t a great metric given its weaknesses on healthcare and education, those weaknesses have at least been consistently present) What we do know is that mean wages are flat at best, and that that will go down once enhanced UI goes away. And we know nominal rates are near zero. Seems like nominal going negative and an unclear view on real rates is the base case, no?