Comments
Transcript
-
DBFED = provide liquidity to business, increase employment, increase flow of credit. Sounds good to me. Inflation isolated to specific assets as an externality? Hardly something to worry about relative to ensuring as many people as possible have jobs.
-
DSAnd yet the earth moves! DLS
-
MMWow. Very disappointed in your sweeping condemnation of all things "socialism" and lazy generalisations. Most Western nations have had democratic socialist governments throughout the 20th and into the 21st centuries. These have maintained the rule of law, good governance and strong institutions no matter which political party was democratically elected by the people to govern, from the right or left. Your scatter-gun critique is ill-informed and unexpected. Are you honestly scared of having a left wing government that prioritises health care and education? Of all the money being thrown corruptly at corporations by the Fed (multiple $Trillions), you seem scandalised about the possibility that a small portion of which might be spent to help create a more balanced society and rectify the imbalances of which you so often speak. And what would be so wrong with that? The anti-intellectual nature of your comments is unworthy of the Real Vision brand.
-
RTIf you wish to know what “Democratic Socialism” is watch the tonight’s news Democrat run cities, and do not shrug the hate red and violence. Meanwhile, read Andre Malraux’s “MansFate”
-
DSIt seems we have a problem in semantic. I do not know why the Merriam Webster’s Dictionary did not give several definitions or reference of other usages. Mr. Bennington and Mr. Harrison your definition of socialism is correct, but only as promulgated by Karl Marx in the 1800s. The common usage of socialism has changed since the 1800s. Some people believe that it just communism - wrong. The more current usage of the word socialism is social democracy. The Merriam Webster’s Dictionary shows the following Usage Guide: “Socialism vs. Social Democracy: Usage Guide In the many years since socialism entered English around 1830, it has acquired several different meanings. It refers to a system of social organization in which private property and the distribution of income are subject to social control, but the conception of that control has varied, and the term has been interpreted in widely diverging ways, ranging from statist to libertarian, from Marxist to liberal. In the modern era, "pure" socialism has been seen only rarely and usually briefly in a few Communist regimes. Far more common are systems of social democracy, now often referred to as democratic socialism, in which extensive state regulation, with limited state ownership, has been employed by democratically elected governments (as in Sweden and Denmark) in the belief that it produces a fair distribution of income without impairing economic growth.” In discussions the term used should not be socialism anymore because of the confusion - but Marxist socialism, democratic socialism or any other different form of socialism humans will dream up. In the end we are all correct. Good outcome. DLS
-
SBIt's worth reading the comments below. I am astounded by the number of people defending Socialism. For a markets-based forum, this surprised me.
-
GHGoldman - Also called oil going to $200 in 2008. But I hope they're correct on gold this time.
-
SDExcellent conversation. Thank you Ash and Ed. Seems like many viewers got caught splitting hairs about socialism and its variations, and decided to overlook all the excellent analogies, takeaways and other aspects of the chat. Very informative to read all the different viewpoints in the comments, although some people need to chill...
-
DSCongress, who is elected by the people, has the power of the purse. They relinquished most of this power to the Fed as they need a whipping boy for their inability to act. We need to just blame Congress for being dysfunctional. Even during a pandemic, they cannot figure it out. DLS
-
BEAsh, your "analysis" of deaths due to socialism is more propafganda than fact. How many innocent people has capitalist America killed for oil. How many atomic nuclear bombs were dropped on Japanese civilians. How many Cambodians and Vietnamese, and people in Laos were killed for no apparent reason. How many were killed by American puppet regimes in Latin America. How many people starved in capitalist countries. How many have died in the developing world while capitalist countries stole their resources. How many native Americans were slaughtered for their land. How many slaves died for American capitalism. Now compare this to "socialist" countries in Europe and elsewhere. Real vision is supposed to be non ideological if such a thing is possible. I am disappointed by your highly biased and frankly lazy thinking on this. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/26/communists-capitalism-stalinism-economic-model
-
DBThere were other aspects of this DB that were brilliant, i.e. Ed's lesson of suspending belief; non-elected officials making policy decisions that effect everyone. I'm surprised the comments are mostly focused on the socialism/capitalism discussion. To understand the evolution of socialism, I read "Heaven of Earth" The Rise, Fall, and Afterlife of Socialism by Joshua Muravchik. Not an easy read but enlightening. Thanks Ed and Ash. Good discussion.
-
PUWow, I found this interview showing both Ash and Ed holding conflicting ideas / beliefs at the same time . . . amazing display of cognitive dissonance. Since the interview with Pedro da Costa and the Fed mouthpiece (aired yesterday and pulled immediately after the comments were critical . . . and subsequently edited/deleted by Ed), Ed and Ash have bellied up to the kool aid bar at the Fed's Free Kool Aid For All Stand and grabbed the stein with both hands! You both support the connection with higher asset prices and Fed interest rate control but if you look back to every cycle in the past, the Fed, in the end, could not permanently elevate asset prices even with massive rate cuts. Please review the data over a complete market cycle. What your message in this video implies is . . . while in the casino, place your bets. Expected more from both of you.
-
JEThis RVDB had a definite feeling of "if you cant beat them join them" re Fed policy effectiveness.
-
EHI understand the logic of “understanding the world as it is not as you want it to be.” But I am extremely uncomfortable investing in markets where bad economic news is good news for the market. I’m still In it (partially) but it’s bizarro world. At some point the Fed is going to lose control. That day might be 10 or 20 years from now. But malinvestment and imbalances are building.
-
DDAfter weeks of preaching everything is going to shit I find it interesting the change in gears...kind of disappointing...and lame....
-
INGiven the discussion on socialism in history, I want to raise the caution flag of making inferences like this one that I hear all the time, on socialism having killed 115M people in the past. Examine the circumstances first. I do understand that "past is prologue" in most cases, but we live in a hybrid socialist-capitalist global market right now. If it were not for globalization, we would most certainly be living in a socialist country. This discussion can get heated, so I will not fuel any fire, but read this book. Francois Cussett (French philosopher if you ask me) has a whole book on the failure of the "left" to keep the right in check, while mostly fighting with itself ro who is more "left". The blood was actually shed among socialists. "How the world swang to the right: fifty years of counterrevolutions". I loved that book.
-
DLI was struck by the comment that the Fed is not elected by the people they serve. Begs the question who do they serve.
-
DSSocialism is not Communism. In Communism all property is owned by the state and each person is paid by the state. Most western countries have an economy with both capitalist and socialist sectors. Sweden is a socialist country with a sector of private businesses. The US economy is more capitalistic than Sweden’s economy. Social Security, Medicare, the Federal Reserve, public roads, public schools, the military, etc. are in the socialist sector of the US economy. Even though the People's Republic of China is run by the Communist Party, China has a large capitalist sector of business. The Fed’s grants and loans(?) to businesses and citizens is a socialist program. Each country defines through legislation how much of the economy is socialist or capitalist. Capitalism is always the engine of the economy. We need to agree on terms in order to pick up the pieces after the pandemic is over. DLS
-
JRDon’t conflate socialism and communism. Economies have different mixes of private and public power, public and private corruption. Seeing things as pro-capitalist or pro-socialist, pro-left, pro-right is too simplistic.
-
NPWith the exception of your socialism conflation (critiqued by others below), this is yet another GREAT conversation. The Fed metaphor, fantastic. On the socialist thing, Denmark is considered socialist, and I wouldn't mind spending the next few decades there, instead of here. Didn't look AT ALL like Venezuela to me when I was there.
-
EMWow, Both Ed and Ash buying the Fed story that everything was fine after 2009? What about globally synchronized stagnation? The Fed clearly has no clue how to create growth or inflation or even money anymore in a globalized dollar system. Bring Jeff Snider back and have Ed talk to him - they need the real story about the smoke and mirrors confidence game that is the Fed and the eurodollar system they obviously are not in control of.
-
esYeah right! All socialists are murderers.
-
mBBest in the biz!
-
GBAsh I don't think the socialism kills argument is very strong, especially when the "socialism" being proposed by "radicals" such as Sanders is more akin to the European model.
-
AMHow cool it would be if these three honest and intelligent men would create a Real Vision political party. A party devoid of lobbyists and grandees. I won't live to see it but it sure would make America great again.
-
shVery good briefing.. My Dad wanted to cash out in 2008 I talked him out of it.. He rode the vol. out and was glad for it.
-
HKSry if this is the wrong place to post this, but what happened to the interview of J.Bullard and Pedro da Costa? It seems to have disappeared since morning
-
DSFirstly, it seems difficult to me that any future EU bond of the size needed to bailout all the EU countries after the pandemic could be rated AAA unless the Frugal Four, Sweden and Germany agree to a 100% backstop without any support from the rest of the EU. Secondly, because the Swift System is still working, the $US will be the reserve currency for a while. In the future, the question will be what excess fiat currency would you want in your bank account after the $US? The store of value will be in assets and commodities like land, gold, silver, etc. The FX market will determine the relative value of differing fiat currencies. Much more chaotic, but at least the FX market will have skin in the game. Do not worry. It will take time for this change to take place. DLS
-
DRSorry I'm a newb, but I'm missing something.. if Fed is The Only Game in Town and one who gets called at 2am to save the country, why has JPOW been begging congress to do fiscal, and are you trying to say that you now think that liquidity and Fed intervention will keep us from insolvency and buoy the market indefinitely?
-
SKRealVision needs to bring back Ashraf Laidi. No one understands the relationships between gold, oil, dollar, pound, etc. like Ashraf. He literally wrote the book on Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis. It would also be good to get his world view perspective being outside of the US and Europe, etc.
-
DMGreat conversation guys - thanks!
-
FDI find it strange when commentators speak of social programs that they mostly speak of Russia and Venezuela. What about Canada, Denmark, Sweden and Finland
-
TBHmm they got to you too
-
CMNick's best ever. Billy Ray and Lewis always top notch.
-
RZGreat discussion, thanks
-
JDWould RV ever consider spending an hour having a experienced options trader discussing strategies?
-
swEd, your 'suspension of disbelief' analogy was a real gem (it will spoil the movie experience in the same way it will spoil your ability to navigate a market). Would you say this 'suspension of disbelief' concept ties in well to Soros' concept of reflexivity? On a side note, I really hope RV can find a way to improve the comments section of the site soon... not being able to track my own comments as those of certain other users is frustrating...
-
ACThanks guys, Without a doubt the best episode yet. Ed has fully valued my RV subscription with his analogy on No Way Out and not missing reality. Great movie and great thought that really brought it home(lived in DC in the early 90's but not bothered by the fictional station). Please don't stop the sports tie-backs. And, Ash (or bearded Ayn Rand), try this for your next RVDB prep - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bynQvcIxQ8
-
ISJeff snider recently spoke on his podcast that losing the reserve dollar status could be a good thing. And that not having it might have reduced the severity of the gfc. Thoughts?
-
OMi'm glad i watched the Pedro / Fed interview before it got pulled! It was some nice foresight into the FOMC meeting today.
-
JLReally great round up.
-
CXGreat analysis guys, your best ever. Thank you.
-
RDNice briefing guys! Gold is a hedge against negative real interest rates, not inflation. The USD is the safe haven traditionally but obviously since all the money printing is debasing the currency, gold get another bid. TIPS yield is currently -0.90. As for Morning Star.... I haven't seen anything of worth (ever) to arrive at a sound thesis for any market.
-
MHVery well said Ed
-
MDGreat commentary Ed and Ash! Took things up a level today in terms of commentary. Thanks. Nick was on fire too with his Morningstar take down.
-
SSGood Discussion . . . More, please
-
BAI look forward to more discussion on the Reserve Currency issue. At 2019, according to Wikipedia: USD was 60% of CB reserves, Euros @ 20% and the rest are minor players. So it only requires the CB holdings of USD to drop by 1/3 (with Euro holdings rising by that amount), to get us to dual reserve currency status! Could take a while. Then again, the world is experiencing an interesting juxtaposition of economic and political forces. I know others have talked of China's ambitions in relation to a leading reserve currency and of GOLD having a more prominent role. Where to from here RV?