Daily Briefing – July 29, 2020

Published on
July 29th, 2020
Duration
34 minutes


Daily Briefing – July 29, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Nick Correa, Ash Bennington, and Ed Harrison

Published on: July 29th, 2020 • Duration: 34 minutes

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, and senior editor, Ash Bennington, come together to discuss the Fed in light of the FOMC's announcement today. Ed and Ash drive home how the Fed, at this time, is the dominant agent in these markets and how investors' feelings regarding Fed action can interfere with one’s ability to make money. Because of the Fed’s mandate, Ed and Ash discuss why they are "the only game in town" and how it's led them to respond to the crisis with unprecedented force. They then consider the weight of the arguments concerning the dollar losing reserve currency status and examine the implications of the Fed's latest announcement. In the intro, Nick Correa covers what’s happening in gold markets and whether the rally is "overhyped" as well as Santander's and Barclays' earnings announcements.

Comments

Transcript

  • DB
    Daniel B.
    31 July 2020 @ 10:59
    FED = provide liquidity to business, increase employment, increase flow of credit. Sounds good to me. Inflation isolated to specific assets as an externality? Hardly something to worry about relative to ensuring as many people as possible have jobs.
  • DS
    David S.
    31 July 2020 @ 08:17
    And yet the earth moves! DLS
  • MM
    Mark M.
    30 July 2020 @ 04:14
    Wow. Very disappointed in your sweeping condemnation of all things "socialism" and lazy generalisations. Most Western nations have had democratic socialist governments throughout the 20th and into the 21st centuries. These have maintained the rule of law, good governance and strong institutions no matter which political party was democratically elected by the people to govern, from the right or left. Your scatter-gun critique is ill-informed and unexpected. Are you honestly scared of having a left wing government that prioritises health care and education? Of all the money being thrown corruptly at corporations by the Fed (multiple $Trillions), you seem scandalised about the possibility that a small portion of which might be spent to help create a more balanced society and rectify the imbalances of which you so often speak. And what would be so wrong with that? The anti-intellectual nature of your comments is unworthy of the Real Vision brand.
    • MD
      Matt D.
      30 July 2020 @ 06:06
      The point was correlating deaths and socialism v capitalism, and then it went on to list various sources of deaths. That was what my point was addressing, and which seems to have been confused.
    • MD
      Matt D.
      30 July 2020 @ 06:12
      Sorry - my comment was meant to be continued in the comment below. To add, there have been billions spent on stimulus as well as bailing out corporations. This isn't black and white.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      30 July 2020 @ 09:25
      Hi, Mark. Thanks for the comment. We always appreciate differing opinions in the comments on our videos. Let me be clear: I wasn’t using socialism as a vague generalization or a term of political abuse — rather, I was applying the literal dictionary definition of the word, which entails government ownership of the factors of production, distribution, and exchange. Definition from Webster follows: "SOCIALISM (1) any of various economic and political theories advocating collective or governmental ownership and administration of the means of production and distribution of goods (2) a system of society or group living in which there is no private property (2b) a system or condition of society in which the means of production are owned and controlled by the state (3) a stage of society in Marxist theory transitional between capitalism and communism and distinguished by unequal distribution of goods and pay according to work done" I don’t want to take away anyone’s social security checks or cancel Medicare or Medicaid. (To the contrary: I believe capitalism requires strong social safety nets to survive and thrive.) As I wrote above, when I refer to socialism, I’m specifically referring to government ownership of the factors of production, distribution, and exchange, as in the Webster definition. The WSJ article below provides a compendious thumbnail sketch of the murderous 20th Century history of this ideology. Note: As the Webster definition points out, Marxist theory construes socialism as a transitional stage between capitalism and communism. https://www.wsj.com/articles/100-years-of-communismand-100-million-dead-1510011810?st=fbkxhbvdzhrfuv7&reflink=article_copyURL_share
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      30 July 2020 @ 15:21
      This is in response to both Mark M. and Ash. I agree with Ash that socialism, as he is defining it, is distinct from what you see in mixed economies like Sweden, the US or France. I remember taking two classes on the History of the Soviet Union and the History of Revolution in college in the years just before the Wall fell. At least one of those classes was taught by two avowed Marxist professors. And what they were talking about regarding socialism had more to do with institutional ideology than anything else. None of the mixed economies I mentioned above have an avowed institutional allegiance to socialism in rejection of market-based outcomes like, say, Venezuela or the Soviet Union. When I think about Europe and the US, I think of countries on a continuum regarding how often market-based outcomes are preferred to non market-based ones. But, they all accept that some activities should be funded via the 'common pot' rather than subjecting people to a market-based outcome. Ostensibly, this is because government can provide some services better than the private sector in terms of social equity. For example, where I grew up, local pools run by the city were free, financed through city taxes. The same was true for garbage collection. I was surprised when a friend in Connecticut revealed that they hired private companies to collect garbage. Schools and the military are almost always 'common pot' collectives in all market-based economies. Would I call that 'socialist'? No. I would say, it's part and parcel of mixed capitalist systems. So, if Bernie Sanders is advocating for 'public pot' health care insurance, that's not socialism either. It's a policy choice consistent with the choices many market economies have made, most advanced societies except the US, in fact. I think Ash and I are on the same page on this.
    • DS
      David S.
      31 July 2020 @ 08:10
      And yet many Europeans see themselves as democratic socialist. The old sand box is washed away. DLS
  • RT
    Richard T.
    30 July 2020 @ 16:58
    If you wish to know what “Democratic Socialism” is watch the tonight’s news Democrat run cities, and do not shrug the hate red and violence. Meanwhile, read Andre Malraux’s “MansFate”
    • RT
      Richard T.
      30 July 2020 @ 17:01
      Corrections “Democrat-run cities” / “do not shrug the hatred”
    • RT
      Richard T.
      30 July 2020 @ 17:30
      I have felt what we are witnessing politically is the exhaustion fo the Democrat Party’s repeated “New Deal” dealing from under the deck with the same only card plays (tricks). The rioting shows the Party’s desperate inability to lead in an original direction, being hide bound to “New Deal” redux.ad nauseum and repeated to the same degree by sock-puppet media.
    • DS
      David S.
      31 July 2020 @ 08:05
      I guess we will not be able to agree. I feel this is the death of the Republican Party. Time will tell. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    30 July 2020 @ 17:06
    It seems we have a problem in semantic. I do not know why the Merriam Webster’s Dictionary did not give several definitions or reference of other usages. Mr. Bennington and Mr. Harrison your definition of socialism is correct, but only as promulgated by Karl Marx in the 1800s. The common usage of socialism has changed since the 1800s. Some people believe that it just communism - wrong. The more current usage of the word socialism is social democracy. The Merriam Webster’s Dictionary shows the following Usage Guide: “Socialism vs. Social Democracy: Usage Guide In the many years since socialism entered English around 1830, it has acquired several different meanings. It refers to a system of social organization in which private property and the distribution of income are subject to social control, but the conception of that control has varied, and the term has been interpreted in widely diverging ways, ranging from statist to libertarian, from Marxist to liberal. In the modern era, "pure" socialism has been seen only rarely and usually briefly in a few Communist regimes. Far more common are systems of social democracy, now often referred to as democratic socialism, in which extensive state regulation, with limited state ownership, has been employed by democratically elected governments (as in Sweden and Denmark) in the belief that it produces a fair distribution of income without impairing economic growth.” In discussions the term used should not be socialism anymore because of the confusion - but Marxist socialism, democratic socialism or any other different form of socialism humans will dream up. In the end we are all correct. Good outcome. DLS
    • RT
      Richard T.
      30 July 2020 @ 17:32
      David, respectfully, that is a distinction without a difference.
    • DS
      David S.
      30 July 2020 @ 18:34
      Richard T. - Love the Henry Fielding quote from Tom Jones. Respectfully also, in this case the distinction is with a major difference. I believe strongly in both capitalism and democratic socialism. They are not mutually exclusive. Capitalism is the engine that taxes to the government. Representative legislatures provide funds for social goods to its citizens like highways and defense. The difference between Denmark and the US is not in kind, but degree. DLS
    • DT
      David T.
      30 July 2020 @ 21:47
      There are no differences in socialism forms at the end. They all start as a good will proposition of a fair distribution of income without impairing economic growth. That's bull, when it's start failing, that is the moments the governments become huge and omnipotent that eventually send everyone that disagrees to Gulags. Socialism doesn't work in any forms. 'The trouble with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money' - M. Thatcher
    • DS
      David S.
      31 July 2020 @ 08:02
      David T. - Please name a country that is only capitalist. Thanks. DLS
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    30 July 2020 @ 07:57
    It's worth reading the comments below. I am astounded by the number of people defending Socialism. For a markets-based forum, this surprised me.
    • EM
      Eivind M.
      30 July 2020 @ 08:14
      I think the problem is one of defining socialism. The Scandinavian model works pretty well, here you have a capitalistic framework for a socialist welfare state. High taxes, lots of benefits, larger middle class and lower wealth disparity. Most businesses are privately owned. This is the socialism that mainly grew out of the industrialization of Germany in the second industrial revolution. I live in Norway and happily pay my taxes, because I know that my family and I get a solid safety net (Free university, free healthcare, 10 month paid parental leave, subsidized drugs etc.) Socialism as in Marxist-Leninist ideology as a mold for government is still as repulsive to me as fascism though.
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      31 July 2020 @ 07:36
      I don't think the model works well, since it's not sustainable. Sweden, Denmark and Finland have been running deficits from 2011 and demographics will make the situation worse. The taxes are a burden and result in brain drain to more reasonably taxed juristictions. Norway might have an advantage with its natural resources though.
  • GH
    Galen H.
    31 July 2020 @ 06:08
    Goldman - Also called oil going to $200 in 2008. But I hope they're correct on gold this time.
    • GH
      Galen H.
      31 July 2020 @ 06:17
      One of the best Daily Briefings in a while. Great summary of all the stimulus packages.
  • SD
    Sara D.
    31 July 2020 @ 01:56
    Excellent conversation. Thank you Ash and Ed. Seems like many viewers got caught splitting hairs about socialism and its variations, and decided to overlook all the excellent analogies, takeaways and other aspects of the chat. Very informative to read all the different viewpoints in the comments, although some people need to chill...
  • DS
    David S.
    30 July 2020 @ 00:59
    Congress, who is elected by the people, has the power of the purse. They relinquished most of this power to the Fed as they need a whipping boy for their inability to act. We need to just blame Congress for being dysfunctional. Even during a pandemic, they cannot figure it out. DLS
    • JM
      John M.
      30 July 2020 @ 08:25
      David, I find I agree with many of your well reasoned comments. This one is bang on. Ash and Ed missed the opportunity to point this out during the briefing. Ash, You also swung and missed with the socialist comment. Despite the misses, you had a very impressive batting average this outing. Batters don't hit a home run every time at bat, but it is nice to see you swinging for the fences. Ed, Footie fans are great and deserving fans who have something to watch this summer. For the rest of us, the shortened baseball season looks like it will be shorter than expected and the Olympics will not absorb every waking minute for two weeks. I never thought I would say this, hockey and basketball, may make the summer more bearable. If not, this was a very good briefing, TGFRVTV! Regards, John
    • DS
      David S.
      30 July 2020 @ 21:10
      John M. - Thanks. I think most of my comments are only common sense. A starting point to activate smarter and wiser people. DLS
  • BE
    Brent E.
    30 July 2020 @ 03:40
    Ash, your "analysis" of deaths due to socialism is more propafganda than fact. How many innocent people has capitalist America killed for oil. How many atomic nuclear bombs were dropped on Japanese civilians. How many Cambodians and Vietnamese, and people in Laos were killed for no apparent reason. How many were killed by American puppet regimes in Latin America. How many people starved in capitalist countries. How many have died in the developing world while capitalist countries stole their resources. How many native Americans were slaughtered for their land. How many slaves died for American capitalism. Now compare this to "socialist" countries in Europe and elsewhere. Real vision is supposed to be non ideological if such a thing is possible. I am disappointed by your highly biased and frankly lazy thinking on this. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/26/communists-capitalism-stalinism-economic-model
    • MD
      Matt D.
      30 July 2020 @ 04:06
      Hi Brent - I think your conflating deaths, ideologies and politics a bit loosely. There are some interesting comments below from firsthand experience regarding "socialist" countries in Europe. Did you forget "socialist" Germany? No country is without blame that's for sure. You can't equate lives with dollars, yet to add to your comment it would be interesting to see which country is the biggest "giver" - aid donor, philanthropic, whatever its called - dollar wise - capitalist America (or whatever other force is driving it - religion? ) would be up near the top if I was to take a guess. I know I would prefer to live in a capitalist economy anyway. When it comes to economics, I don't believe RV is claiming to be ideologically neutral either. Perhaps politically. Interesting debate nevertheless.
    • MM
      Mark M.
      30 July 2020 @ 04:15
      Agreed. Very disappointing.
    • MM
      Mark M.
      30 July 2020 @ 04:17
      Agree with Brent E that is - not with Matt D.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      30 July 2020 @ 08:34
      Hi, Brent. I clarified my position above in response to Mark’s comments.
    • BE
      Brent E.
      30 July 2020 @ 12:40
      Yes Ash, but you have not answered the question of how many have died from capitalism, and who is counting those deaths. As always the victors write history, and omit difficult truths.
    • MD
      Matt D.
      30 July 2020 @ 20:10
      Do you mean perhaps how many deaths is the US responsible for? Correlating the actions of the nation state to capitalism is questionable? Its like saying how many people have you killed from your trading/investing? A less violent analogy - maybe Ash, Ed and the RV team should assign thumbs up/down on their internal social forum agenda. Would that work better?
  • DB
    Donna B.
    30 July 2020 @ 13:18
    There were other aspects of this DB that were brilliant, i.e. Ed's lesson of suspending belief; non-elected officials making policy decisions that effect everyone. I'm surprised the comments are mostly focused on the socialism/capitalism discussion. To understand the evolution of socialism, I read "Heaven of Earth" The Rise, Fall, and Afterlife of Socialism by Joshua Muravchik. Not an easy read but enlightening. Thanks Ed and Ash. Good discussion.
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      30 July 2020 @ 13:41
      Aside from the lazy political label conflation, there was a palpable shift in narrative... leaving many of us to wonder, what about the reckoning we were expecting, what about the fiscal policy risk, what about the insolvency.....?
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      30 July 2020 @ 15:02
      Derrick R, where do you see the shift in narrative. more specifically? Is it from bullish to bearish or vice versa? And in what context?
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      30 July 2020 @ 15:30
      Ed thanks for answering. To me it felt that you and Ash were overwhelmed by the Fed's ability, and while you didn't address how you see the rest of the year playing out from this lens specifically enough, my feeling was that you went from bearish to bullish..
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      30 July 2020 @ 17:51
      Derrick, I am definitely not bullish in the way my friend Tyler Neville is. I am a bond guy and I tend to look at downside risk. And I still see considerable downside risk. That’s certainly bullish for Treasuries. But it’s not bullish economically. From a suspension of disbelief perspective, I am on guard for more positive outcomes. 100%. But my macro view still sees most of the economic risk on the downside, including in Europe where a second viral wave has begun. Can central banks mitigate these problems? To a degree, yes. They can’t make them go away. I hope that gives you more color.
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      30 July 2020 @ 18:05
      Makes sense, thank you for clarifying!
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      30 July 2020 @ 18:56
      Derrick, this is almost two weeks old but it encapsulates my view fairly well https://pro.creditwritedowns.com/p/political-impasse-over-jobless-claims The difference today is that we've seen unadjusted claims fall for two weeks. And that's good. But this is more than offset by the fiscal cliff.
  • PU
    Peter U.
    30 July 2020 @ 10:04
    Wow, I found this interview showing both Ash and Ed holding conflicting ideas / beliefs at the same time . . . amazing display of cognitive dissonance. Since the interview with Pedro da Costa and the Fed mouthpiece (aired yesterday and pulled immediately after the comments were critical . . . and subsequently edited/deleted by Ed), Ed and Ash have bellied up to the kool aid bar at the Fed's Free Kool Aid For All Stand and grabbed the stein with both hands! You both support the connection with higher asset prices and Fed interest rate control but if you look back to every cycle in the past, the Fed, in the end, could not permanently elevate asset prices even with massive rate cuts. Please review the data over a complete market cycle. What your message in this video implies is . . . while in the casino, place your bets. Expected more from both of you.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      30 July 2020 @ 17:53
      Peter, you must have misinterpreted something. Nowhere did I imply you need to belly up to the bar and drink the punch the Fed is serving. How did you get that impression?
  • JE
    Jonathan E.
    30 July 2020 @ 15:59
    This RVDB had a definite feeling of "if you cant beat them join them" re Fed policy effectiveness.
  • EH
    Erik H.
    30 July 2020 @ 15:59
    I understand the logic of “understanding the world as it is not as you want it to be.” But I am extremely uncomfortable investing in markets where bad economic news is good news for the market. I’m still In it (partially) but it’s bizarro world. At some point the Fed is going to lose control. That day might be 10 or 20 years from now. But malinvestment and imbalances are building.
  • DD
    David D.
    30 July 2020 @ 01:56
    After weeks of preaching everything is going to shit I find it interesting the change in gears...kind of disappointing...and lame....
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      30 July 2020 @ 02:32
      Not only that but, the delivery what somewhat more of a lecture than admitting hey we were wrong
    • TN
      Tim N.
      30 July 2020 @ 06:08
      Meh, we all overestimated the impact of the virus (not saying it is not bad) and underestimated the power of the Fed. Looks like there is plenty more road to kick the can.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      30 July 2020 @ 15:01
      Not clear where you see the shift in narrative. I write about the economy multiple times a week very consistently. Could you be more specific.
  • IN
    I N.
    30 July 2020 @ 14:47
    Given the discussion on socialism in history, I want to raise the caution flag of making inferences like this one that I hear all the time, on socialism having killed 115M people in the past. Examine the circumstances first. I do understand that "past is prologue" in most cases, but we live in a hybrid socialist-capitalist global market right now. If it were not for globalization, we would most certainly be living in a socialist country. This discussion can get heated, so I will not fuel any fire, but read this book. Francois Cussett (French philosopher if you ask me) has a whole book on the failure of the "left" to keep the right in check, while mostly fighting with itself ro who is more "left". The blood was actually shed among socialists. "How the world swang to the right: fifty years of counterrevolutions". I loved that book.
  • DL
    David L.
    30 July 2020 @ 11:31
    I was struck by the comment that the Fed is not elected by the people they serve. Begs the question who do they serve.
    • RM
      Richard M.
      30 July 2020 @ 13:23
      Exactly! I think everybody knows the Fed does indeed serve the people that elect them - the Fed regional governors are elected by the banks in that region. The Fed serves the banks pure and simple.
  • DS
    David S.
    30 July 2020 @ 00:49
    Socialism is not Communism. In Communism all property is owned by the state and each person is paid by the state. Most western countries have an economy with both capitalist and socialist sectors. Sweden is a socialist country with a sector of private businesses. The US economy is more capitalistic than Sweden’s economy. Social Security, Medicare, the Federal Reserve, public roads, public schools, the military, etc. are in the socialist sector of the US economy. Even though the People's Republic of China is run by the Communist Party, China has a large capitalist sector of business. The Fed’s grants and loans(?) to businesses and citizens is a socialist program. Each country defines through legislation how much of the economy is socialist or capitalist. Capitalism is always the engine of the economy. We need to agree on terms in order to pick up the pieces after the pandemic is over. DLS
    • sh
      steve h.
      30 July 2020 @ 01:56
      Sweden is more capitalist then we are . they have bigger safety net .. They are not Socialists. Sanders is a Communist . China is a thug state. the world needs to put a wall around them. You need to read more or something......
    • DS
      David S.
      30 July 2020 @ 08:24
      steve h. - The safety net in Sweden is socialism. I am not smart enough to know for sure what Senator Sanders is. Not sure a wall would do any good with China. I think that a wall is our thing. I certainly do need to read more. DLS
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      30 July 2020 @ 08:39
      Not ‘all property’, the means of production. In the Soviet Union, people still had personal property
  • JR
    Jacob R.
    30 July 2020 @ 04:51
    Don’t conflate socialism and communism. Economies have different mixes of private and public power, public and private corruption. Seeing things as pro-capitalist or pro-socialist, pro-left, pro-right is too simplistic.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      30 July 2020 @ 08:36
      Jacob. Agreed. I clarified my comments below in response to Mark M.
  • NP
    Nathaniel P.
    30 July 2020 @ 06:06
    With the exception of your socialism conflation (critiqued by others below), this is yet another GREAT conversation. The Fed metaphor, fantastic. On the socialist thing, Denmark is considered socialist, and I wouldn't mind spending the next few decades there, instead of here. Didn't look AT ALL like Venezuela to me when I was there.
    • SB
      Stewart B.
      30 July 2020 @ 07:55
      Denmark isn't Socialist. Same with Sweden. Both of these countries, despite a high level of wealth redistribution, feature very open/free markets and unobtrusive governments. The ease of doing business is generally higher in these countries than most other developed economies.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      30 July 2020 @ 08:15
      Hi, Nathaniel. Thanks for the comment. In my view, I wouldn’t consider Denmark or Sweden socialist. Both are capitalist countries with private property rights — but with broader, deeper, and, frankly, more effective social safety nets than we have in the US. Denmark is very different, as you rightly point out, from Venezuela. RV produced a documentary about Venezuela in 2018. It was terrifying. YouTube link below: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qdO2pFoGgw
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      30 July 2020 @ 08:15
      Stewart: Agreed
  • EM
    Eivind M.
    30 July 2020 @ 07:48
    Wow, Both Ed and Ash buying the Fed story that everything was fine after 2009? What about globally synchronized stagnation? The Fed clearly has no clue how to create growth or inflation or even money anymore in a globalized dollar system. Bring Jeff Snider back and have Ed talk to him - they need the real story about the smoke and mirrors confidence game that is the Fed and the eurodollar system they obviously are not in control of.
  • es
    elizabeth s.
    30 July 2020 @ 06:44
    Yeah right! All socialists are murderers.
  • mB
    marc B.
    30 July 2020 @ 03:29
    Best in the biz!
  • GB
    Griffin B.
    30 July 2020 @ 00:52
    Ash I don't think the socialism kills argument is very strong, especially when the "socialism" being proposed by "radicals" such as Sanders is more akin to the European model.
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      30 July 2020 @ 02:17
      Griffin... have you ever heard the saying about the Camel's nose under the tent? BTW the European model is a mess...
  • AM
    Alexander M.
    30 July 2020 @ 01:56
    How cool it would be if these three honest and intelligent men would create a Real Vision political party. A party devoid of lobbyists and grandees. I won't live to see it but it sure would make America great again.
  • sh
    steve h.
    30 July 2020 @ 01:51
    Very good briefing.. My Dad wanted to cash out in 2008 I talked him out of it.. He rode the vol. out and was glad for it.
  • HK
    H K.
    29 July 2020 @ 22:23
    Sry if this is the wrong place to post this, but what happened to the interview of J.Bullard and Pedro da Costa? It seems to have disappeared since morning
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      29 July 2020 @ 22:50
      Hi, HK. Fed media blackout. We talk about it in the first five minutes of the video.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      30 July 2020 @ 01:48
      @RV, Thank you for mentioning why the video was pulled.
  • DS
    David S.
    30 July 2020 @ 01:39
    Firstly, it seems difficult to me that any future EU bond of the size needed to bailout all the EU countries after the pandemic could be rated AAA unless the Frugal Four, Sweden and Germany agree to a 100% backstop without any support from the rest of the EU. Secondly, because the Swift System is still working, the $US will be the reserve currency for a while. In the future, the question will be what excess fiat currency would you want in your bank account after the $US? The store of value will be in assets and commodities like land, gold, silver, etc. The FX market will determine the relative value of differing fiat currencies. Much more chaotic, but at least the FX market will have skin in the game. Do not worry. It will take time for this change to take place. DLS
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    30 July 2020 @ 01:38
    Sorry I'm a newb, but I'm missing something.. if Fed is The Only Game in Town and one who gets called at 2am to save the country, why has JPOW been begging congress to do fiscal, and are you trying to say that you now think that liquidity and Fed intervention will keep us from insolvency and buoy the market indefinitely?
  • SK
    Sonja K.
    30 July 2020 @ 01:38
    RealVision needs to bring back Ashraf Laidi. No one understands the relationships between gold, oil, dollar, pound, etc. like Ashraf. He literally wrote the book on Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis. It would also be good to get his world view perspective being outside of the US and Europe, etc.
  • DM
    Dominic M.
    30 July 2020 @ 01:09
    Great conversation guys - thanks!
  • FD
    Francois-Guy D.
    29 July 2020 @ 22:53
    I find it strange when commentators speak of social programs that they mostly speak of Russia and Venezuela. What about Canada, Denmark, Sweden and Finland
    • NE
      Nathan E.
      30 July 2020 @ 00:23
      I had the exact same thought. Undercuts your argument when you pick the worst possible examples and leave out countries with a higher standard of living than US currently has (not my personal POV, it’s supported by relevant data across key quality of life metrics).
    • YL
      Yuri L.
      30 July 2020 @ 00:34
      Social programs as in a social welfare state like Western Europe is not socialist. All these countries have open markets, open economies and small governments in percentage of their GDP. Socialism is the opposite of that: price controls, closed markets, high taxes and big government. I am living in Argentina right now, originally from The Netherlands. Argentina seems to have taken a socialist path which will eventually lead to a Venezuela-like economy. And I can tell you that has absolutely nothing to do with a welfare state under a free market capitalist system.
    • VN
      Vitali N.
      30 July 2020 @ 00:56
      agreed. my only beef with otherwise excellent and thought-provoking discussion. Social democrats in Europe had nothing to do with bolsheviks, which literally took the democrat part out of the definition. Neither did 20th-century Communist regimes had anything to do with Communism in the Marx/economics sense. they were dictatorships I am bewildered though by US politicians calling themselves socialists given the lack of understanding among the general public. Those early metaphors on how to process the Fed (2 am call, Georgetown metro) were awesome for my sanity. thank you
    • jd
      jerry d.
      30 July 2020 @ 01:00
      I am Swedish and have spent time in Russia. The commentators are spot on.
    • RR
      Ramon R.
      30 July 2020 @ 01:01
      They are societies based on capitalism that have added some social programs on top.
  • TB
    Tobin B.
    30 July 2020 @ 00:56
    Hmm they got to you too
  • CM
    Cory M.
    30 July 2020 @ 00:41
    Nick's best ever. Billy Ray and Lewis always top notch.
  • RZ
    Richard Z.
    30 July 2020 @ 00:23
    Great discussion, thanks
  • JD
    James D.
    30 July 2020 @ 00:13
    Would RV ever consider spending an hour having a experienced options trader discussing strategies?
  • sw
    stefan w.
    30 July 2020 @ 00:13
    Ed, your 'suspension of disbelief' analogy was a real gem (it will spoil the movie experience in the same way it will spoil your ability to navigate a market). Would you say this 'suspension of disbelief' concept ties in well to Soros' concept of reflexivity? On a side note, I really hope RV can find a way to improve the comments section of the site soon... not being able to track my own comments as those of certain other users is frustrating...
  • AC
    Adam C.
    29 July 2020 @ 23:57
    Thanks guys, Without a doubt the best episode yet. Ed has fully valued my RV subscription with his analogy on No Way Out and not missing reality. Great movie and great thought that really brought it home(lived in DC in the early 90's but not bothered by the fictional station). Please don't stop the sports tie-backs. And, Ash (or bearded Ayn Rand), try this for your next RVDB prep - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bynQvcIxQ8
  • IS
    Ian S.
    29 July 2020 @ 23:51
    Jeff snider recently spoke on his podcast that losing the reserve dollar status could be a good thing. And that not having it might have reduced the severity of the gfc. Thoughts?
  • OM
    Owen M.
    29 July 2020 @ 23:49
    i'm glad i watched the Pedro / Fed interview before it got pulled! It was some nice foresight into the FOMC meeting today.
  • JL
    Jake L.
    29 July 2020 @ 23:43
    Really great round up.
  • CX
    Cindy X.
    29 July 2020 @ 23:39
    Great analysis guys, your best ever. Thank you.
  • RD
    Riki D.
    29 July 2020 @ 23:37
    Nice briefing guys! Gold is a hedge against negative real interest rates, not inflation. The USD is the safe haven traditionally but obviously since all the money printing is debasing the currency, gold get another bid. TIPS yield is currently -0.90. As for Morning Star.... I haven't seen anything of worth (ever) to arrive at a sound thesis for any market.
  • MH
    Muddshir H.
    29 July 2020 @ 23:31
    Very well said Ed
  • MD
    Matt D.
    29 July 2020 @ 23:29
    Great commentary Ed and Ash! Took things up a level today in terms of commentary. Thanks. Nick was on fire too with his Morningstar take down.
  • SS
    Sheldon S.
    29 July 2020 @ 23:07
    Good Discussion . . . More, please
  • BA
    Bruce A.
    29 July 2020 @ 23:02
    I look forward to more discussion on the Reserve Currency issue. At 2019, according to Wikipedia: USD was 60% of CB reserves, Euros @ 20% and the rest are minor players. So it only requires the CB holdings of USD to drop by 1/3 (with Euro holdings rising by that amount), to get us to dual reserve currency status! Could take a while. Then again, the world is experiencing an interesting juxtaposition of economic and political forces. I know others have talked of China's ambitions in relation to a leading reserve currency and of GOLD having a more prominent role. Where to from here RV?