Daily Briefing – July 31, 2020

Published on
July 31st, 2020
Duration
37 minutes


Daily Briefing – July 31, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Michael Green

Published on: July 31st, 2020 • Duration: 37 minutes

Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision favorite Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors. Mike Green gives a strategic update on the markets, and, through the lens of his renowned critique of passive investing, analyzes flow data on ETFs and mutual funds to conclude that the markets could be due for some turmoil in the coming months. Green and Bennington also discuss today’s interview with Green and Rob Arnott, one of the world's leading quantitative investors. Green also shares his views on "volmaggedon" and the similarities between short-vol and bonds. In the intro, Jack reviews recent FAANG earnings and gives a preview of Jason Buck's three-part "Ahead of the Curve," a deep-dive into volatility featuring interviews with Chris Cole, Jerry Haworth, and Bastian Bolesta.

Comments

  • TJ
    Terry J.
    5 August 2020 @ 14:02
    I can't praise Mike's analysis and insights enough. Just as an example his observations and analysis of the impact of indexation on markets is second to none in my opinion. He has undoubtedly been a huge plus for RV over the years and like most other subscribers I feel have leant so much about markets from watching and listening to Mike. Long may his association with RV continue.
  • PE
    Paul E.
    3 August 2020 @ 21:00
    I really enjoy listening to Mike Green. Knowledgeable, articulate, interesting and easy to understand.
  • DM
    Don M.
    3 August 2020 @ 18:13
    I must be honest. I was turned off by Mike Green in one of the past pieces. But now I have to go back and re-watch it. This was much better than I anticipated and well worth the watch. Thanks!
  • sg
    scott g.
    3 August 2020 @ 16:28
    to me, i very important daily briefing....i too believe (cue anchoring bias) the mkt data pt to watch is equity/fund flows...Just didnt know what to pay attn to. thank you
  • ar
    andrew r.
    3 August 2020 @ 15:43
    I love that Mike's talks need annotation -- I have tabs open on "ergodicity problem" and "Carrington event" right now. Me watching MG on RV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-Mz_rDeP04
  • RS
    Robin S.
    3 August 2020 @ 04:23
    Fantastic DB. Mikes summary worth every $ of subs imho. Thanks Team
  • DH
    David H.
    31 July 2020 @ 23:21
    I avidly look forward to each Daily Briefing as a PLUS member. So, while the show recaps and advertising are OK, I watch for new information. Mike is stellar, but the new content tonight was light. As noted by Ben T., Raoul is always a superb highlight to any Friday Daily Briefing. Mike can do nearly as well, and I was sad to not see this value add. For example (if this was recorded today), it would have been nice to hear Mike's view on record-low 10-year yields.
    • JA
      Jonathan A.
      31 July 2020 @ 23:58
      Did you stick it out to the end? Mike’s perspective on flows and their slowing was worth the price of listening to the whole discussion (all of which was great).
    • RS
      Robin S.
      3 August 2020 @ 04:18
      Totally agree with Jonathan. The last 4 mins was as valuable as anything you will hear esp in the context of the fact that Mike called the last few months perfectly back in Mar/Alf
  • BT
    Ben T.
    31 July 2020 @ 21:28
    Got used to and looked forward to seeing Roger at least Wed/Thurs and Raoul to finish the week off on a Friday. Are these changes to the daily briefing the last few weeks permanent?
    • BT
      Ben T.
      31 July 2020 @ 21:38
      Sorry that’s just a question. No disrespect to the guests on rotation. All very interesting and enjoyable viewing too!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      31 July 2020 @ 22:45
      Hi, Ben. Ha. None taken! Roger is on holiday. He'll be back shortly.
    • BT
      Ben T.
      31 July 2020 @ 22:46
      Thanks Ash. Enjoy watching all the team. Good weekend
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      1 August 2020 @ 07:07
      I should add: Raoul should be back next week
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      2 August 2020 @ 22:10
      I think Roaul recently said he would be away for a week or two?
  • DS
    David S.
    31 July 2020 @ 22:51
    I am a little slow, but now I understand the hard edge divide by some in the 7/30 Daily Briefing comment section on the definition of socialism. After a couple of microbrews my young friend explained it to me. Socialism is a liberal and conservative political dog whistle - "The dog-whistle analogy was drawn from Australian sheep-farming, where a farmer uses a whistle which is only audible to one dog. This idea was taken over into political contexts as a way of describing a message aimed exclusively at one section of the electorate." On the Left, democratic socialism is good. On the Right socialism in bad. The Left will use Denmark as an example of good democratic socialism. The Right will use Venezuela as an example of socialism that destroys an economy. I was not sensitized to these political dog whistles. Every time I hear Venezuela, I think the great times I had there in 1980 -1982. Wanting to understand the evolution of different types of socialism on a logical basis with pro and cons did not as matter to some. DLS
    • SB
      Silvan B.
      2 August 2020 @ 18:35
      Aww see an WEs we zzz weza
  • GB
    Griffin B.
    2 August 2020 @ 18:23
    Mike Green...GOAT
  • NS
    Nicholas S.
    2 August 2020 @ 17:36
    Has anyone been able to locate the Jim Simons podcast appearance that Mike mentions early on here?
    • MG
      Michael G. | Contributor
      2 August 2020 @ 17:38
      https://youtu.be/QNznD9hMEh0
  • FF
    Fabio F.
    2 August 2020 @ 15:15
    Please remove the red light mic from the camera view. Please
  • NI
    Nate I.
    2 August 2020 @ 06:06
    Excellent.
  • DS
    David S.
    2 August 2020 @ 02:06
    Great questions and great answers. It brings a lot of ideas together Thanks. DLS
  • Md
    Matthew d.
    2 August 2020 @ 00:44
    Mike Green is such a legend!
  • BA
    Bob A.
    1 August 2020 @ 07:36
    I am glad Raoul got some down time, but my guess is he also used the time to develop some new ideas as well. I enjoyed this piece today, but I do have to say that I really enjoy Raoul on Friday, It gives us additional insight on his current positioning and he always adds some gems.
    • CM
      Cory M.
      2 August 2020 @ 00:03
      Maybe so, but having Mike Green instead is really superb.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    1 August 2020 @ 23:53
    Brilliant brilliant brilliant!!!
  • BB
    Benjamin B.
    1 August 2020 @ 22:10
    I had never heard of the “Trader” documentary about Paul Tudor Jones. It’s so good! I’m obsessed with the old school 80’s Wall Street.
  • AA
    Andrew A.
    1 August 2020 @ 19:48
    This is one of the most (if not the most) most insightful view I've seen in my short tenure on RV. We've never observed the characteristics of passive flows in a bear market - so who knows how it will turn out. More content on this topic please!
    • JD
      Jimmy D.
      1 August 2020 @ 20:42
      What bear market? Just pick an asset and you will see inflation whether it's a pack of chicken, an ounce of gold, a bitcoin, a house...People including myself underestimate the inflationary power of central banks and I learned the hard way by buying puts all the way to SPY 300. Who is going to stop them, voters? US voters love low rates, unlimited bond buying, etc. Fox News runs 1 article a week about how you should vote Trump to inflate your 401k more. I just don't see any outcome in this crisis besides inflation and perhaps hyperinflation. No one will dare stop Jay Powell be it Biden Trump or any politician.
  • DH
    Dominick H.
    1 August 2020 @ 02:33
    Mike's revealing of what he's watching regarding the flow and tell-tale sign on the market movement is exactly the actionable insight one would be looking for from the Daily Briefing.
    • AA
      Andrew A.
      1 August 2020 @ 19:51
      Maybe any material moves in passive flows could be added as an addendum to the Daily Briefing?? @RV
    • JC
      Justin C.
      1 August 2020 @ 20:05
      I listen to all of his interviews and have rarely heard him share actionable information. The hair on my neck stood up.
  • AC
    Adam C.
    1 August 2020 @ 18:41
    Well done, Ash! Although the guest is top-notch, this was one of your best run interviews on RVDB. Look forward to more.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      1 August 2020 @ 19:49
      Thanks, Adam. Much appreciated.
  • SP
    Steve P.
    1 August 2020 @ 19:30
    One of Mikes greatest descriptions of market dynamics. Truly grabbed some gems, like holding price against NAV, ETF and Mutual fund flows and the theory of passive management. Active is the new passive. In my opinion, pre 2008 financial decision making is gone. Those handshakes were based on ancient bro codes. Plenty of wealth managers, advisors, etc couldn't fill a trade to save their lives. They got by on charm and socializing. Retail traders are replacing their roles rapidly.
  • LH
    Leigh H.
    1 August 2020 @ 18:39
    Terrific
  • RT
    Richard T.
    1 August 2020 @ 01:47
    All well and good, but — for me — this is not a a "Daily Briefing" topic. It's too much "inside baseball." (Albeit, the fielding was slick, and the pitching — "junk-ball.".
    • JD
      James D.
      1 August 2020 @ 17:24
      I enjoyed the information but I think RV is finding their footing as far as what they are going to cover in The Daily Briefing. It's the McDonalds consistency argument.. What are the top three things that happened today in the markets and might influence tomorrow? But, I really want to know how Jack Farley got that nice home in Carmel and why we don't see more of him?!
  • PL
    Pierce L.
    1 August 2020 @ 15:36
    Love hearing the interviewers unpack the interviews they conducted. Added layer of perspective that's invaluable. Mike conducted some incredible interviews this week and it was extremely insightful to hear what he learned and where he was coming from.
  • AH
    Attila H.
    1 August 2020 @ 15:26
    Invaluable! Big thanks guys
  • PP
    Peter P.
    1 August 2020 @ 14:57
    Excellent video, thanks very much. Love the beard too!
  • RK
    Rusev K.
    1 August 2020 @ 01:06
    Did anyone catch the name of the podcast Mike was referring to? The one where Jim Simmons gave an interview.
    • JS
      Jakob S.
      1 August 2020 @ 09:26
      I believe he said it was on the numeraire podcast, but google doen't know anything about that. The only podcast interview with Jim Simons I'm aware of is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fr8XOtbPqM
    • DT
      David T.
      1 August 2020 @ 13:36
      Mike provides the link here: https://twitter.com/zackhoward/status/1280126082289676288
  • VK
    Vaclav K.
    1 August 2020 @ 13:11
    Excellent!
  • BI
    Brett I.
    1 August 2020 @ 09:02
    Great interview. Interesting to hear Mike say he thinks passive is helping to create a bubble for bonds as well as stocks. Does this contradict Raoul’s “Trust the bond market” viewpoint?
  • JD
    Jimmy D.
    31 July 2020 @ 23:23
    the people demand Ed
    • GH
      Gregory H.
      1 August 2020 @ 05:43
      Ash and Ed are both really good, even if you like one better than the other, I think you may get sick of seeing the same person every single day...
    • B
      Bob .
      1 August 2020 @ 07:20
      Both Ed and Ash bring insight and they also complement each other and that is very important. However, I think an interview like this requires no more than two involved.
  • Dv
    Daniel v.
    1 August 2020 @ 07:16
    Too bad this DB isn all about the topics that MG has been taking about for years. I hoped to seen MG's view on current markets, precious metals, FX, etc.
  • AB
    Alastair B.
    1 August 2020 @ 06:04
    There are some great valuations at the moment, for well run companies at beaten down prices. It’s simply not a time for buying the index.
    • TE
      Tim E.
      1 August 2020 @ 06:26
      Especially if you look OUTSIDE the United States.
  • JC
    Juan C.
    1 August 2020 @ 05:59
    Mike Green is one of the best assets in RV.. I became a subscriber after watching one of his interviews
  • AD
    Anthony D.
    1 August 2020 @ 05:23
    God bless Mike Green
  • MD
    Matt D.
    1 August 2020 @ 03:02
    Great interview Ash - Mike is a legend. I am wondering if his concepts are general (for stocks) - so for Australia, Japan, Europe/UK indices for example. I assume they would be - maybe to varying degrees. The price moves in Australia and Japan (maybe Europe? didn't see that time zone) on Friday were more-so confirming Mike's last comments - well, I will have to think about "passive selling" - or read Mike a bit more closely to see if or when that is considered. Mike's like the quantum investor - not quant but legit quantum theory - bringing the observer into the equation.
  • IN
    I N.
    1 August 2020 @ 02:54
    Put that down in the bag of best of 2020 RV DB.
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    1 August 2020 @ 02:14
    Epic, maybe the best daily briefing since I started watching in March
  • CH
    Cory H.
    1 August 2020 @ 01:49
    Where’s Ed Harrison?
  • BH
    Barry H.
    1 August 2020 @ 00:51
    Mighty Mike, always keen to hear his input.
  • DF
    Diamantino F.
    1 August 2020 @ 00:48
    Great to have Mike on, now this would have been a perfect Friday for Raoul ... Thank RV
  • PB
    Paul B.
    1 August 2020 @ 00:45
    Yep big part of Equities and the flows are not just slowing down in the USA...Here in Australia and most of the rest of the world along with it
  • JJ
    Joseph J.
    1 August 2020 @ 00:35
    Feel lucky being able to listen to mike green twice in a day!
  • JF
    Joseph F.
    1 August 2020 @ 00:05
    This was the best Daily Briefing yet! Thanks Mike!!!
  • AT
    ALAN T.
    31 July 2020 @ 23:58
    Terrific.
  • JA
    Jordan A.
    31 July 2020 @ 23:19
    Damn that was great! Always enjoy hearing from Mike. Thanks to both.
  • MH
    Matthew H.
    31 July 2020 @ 23:18
    Love every opportunity to learn from Mike
  • JH
    Jacqueline H.
    31 July 2020 @ 23:13
    Thank you gentlemen! Stellar interview. Mr. Green is far out of my intellectual league and I usually struggle to conceptualize what he is discussing with other interviewees. Not today. You were both right in my ballpark and I am grateful. Have a fabulous weekend!
  • CC
    Christopher C.
    31 July 2020 @ 23:13
    Any time spent listening to Mike is time well spent.
  • CS
    Carl S.
    31 July 2020 @ 23:08
    Mike is by far my favorite guest on RV.