Daily Briefing – July 8, 2020

Published on
July 8th, 2020
Duration
34 minutes


Daily Briefing – July 8, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Peter Cooper, Ash Bennington, and Ed Harrison

Published on: July 8th, 2020 • Duration: 34 minutes

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the latest developments in markets, macro, and coronavirus. Ash and Ed first dive into recently released interviews with Stephanie Kelton and with George Magnus and share their takeaways from those pieces. They also talk about how flows are buoying equities, the "summer lull" that is occurring in markets, and the developing macro picture that could pull the rug out from underneath unsuspecting investors in the next few months. In the intro, Peter Cooper explains how coronavirus has affected millions of Americans’ living situations and what lies ahead for both renters and homeowners.

Comments

Transcript

  • BB
    Benjamin B.
    11 July 2020 @ 17:28
    I'd have to agree with some of the prior comments. I'd also add if you going to talk about covid disproportionately affecting certain groups of people, than you should also address how widespread rioting contributed to the spike in covid among those groups. The rioting will also cause wealthy people (and their tax dollars) to leave cities for suburbs and rural areas where their property and lives aren't put at risk every time a police officer uses excessive force.
  • JD
    Jonathan D.
    11 July 2020 @ 05:34
    Real Vision? More like East Coast Liberal elite Keynesian apologist vision. Having 2 people echo chamber a one sided discussion back and forth is boring. "The government throwing people out of their homes during a pandemic" literally what? Somebody hire comrade Ed to centrally plan this economy so we can get out of this mess. Oh wait maybe he will make hiring people illegal, lol.
  • JD
    Jesse D.
    9 July 2020 @ 02:55
    Is robust evictions a policy error or culture error. People have not saved enough for a very long time. But, the fed has kept rates down for too long and encouraged too much spending.
    • CR
      Cory R.
      9 July 2020 @ 18:52
      Very good point.
  • AC
    Antoine C.
    9 July 2020 @ 18:17
    Hmmm wonder why we became the richest country in the world since thats your excuse for violating all principles that lead us to being the riches: Respect of private property by the state Small government Individual responsibility Strong family and community social net What you ask for is bigger government, less individual responsibility cuz you know who saves? Respect contracts and property hahah no cuz we are riches country and dont need that....its a rabbit hole and there is bo end going down that path
  • AC
    Adam C.
    9 July 2020 @ 00:23
    I'm definitely here for the drama around the Microphone. Love the content (seriously) but the constant prodding by Ed about the gaming mic is a reliably fun bit that is only outclassed by Ash's suppressed reaction and seeming irritation. Today it finally climaxed into a big passive aggressive move by Ash to position the Mic nearly front and center begging Ed and the viewers to lose their minds. Ed, please respond by positioning the Orchid in front of your face in the next DB.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      9 July 2020 @ 00:31
      Hilarious
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      9 July 2020 @ 01:15
      Come for the Econ. Stay for the mic.
    • CR
      Cory R.
      9 July 2020 @ 02:47
      Don't forget the case of the fabulous disappearing & reappearing cue ball on Raoul's pool table. LoL.
    • RA
      Robert A.
      9 July 2020 @ 13:57
      I’m helping a fellow RV’er set up a home studio and reached out to Maynard for the name of the Mic. Hope it works well, but even if it’s totally ineffective it makes for a great “prop”. Hope Ash hasn’t trademarked it taking up a third of the screen as I’m a bit concerned about potential infringement issues. That sucker is just a Jim Dandy and with it’s new front and center placement Ash can ever so slightly lean into it when emphasizing a point.
  • JG
    Judith G.
    9 July 2020 @ 13:31
    Steve Keen is another resource for MMT conversations. I agree with his critique that MMT's primary confusion is with the import- export aspect of the system. She seemed to switch from financial considerations, such as GDP and liquidity, to the actual products imported and exported. A Kelton-Keen conversation would reap a rich harvest, I think.
  • PL
    Pierce L.
    9 July 2020 @ 12:54
    These cross-content recaps are great!
  • PC
    Peter C.
    9 July 2020 @ 11:42
    I think we should stop believing that cases can go up or stay at a high level while deaths go down or stay low. We are at a point where the number of deaths from the new hotspots is compensating those of the old hotspots (NY, NJ etc). Casualties will start to go up. At the same time, the average age of new cases is rising (from around 30 to 40) and basically the growth rate of all age groups (even of those +75) starts to converge. Check out Jens Nordvig of Exante Data on twitter. It is no surprise to me. How can you protect the middle age and elderly if young people still living with their parents catch it, most of the case without knowing? How do you ensure social distancing in shops, post offices, pharmacies etc, from a large cohort of young, infected people with many not wearing a mask at all? Add to this the impact of badly ventilated and airconditioned rooms at home or in shops and you setup an environtment that ensures virus spreading to all age groups no matter how good the elderly try to protect themselves by wearing a mask and keeping some distance. My conclusion is that CFR will go back to its average of around 4% within 3-4 weeks and if the number of cases does not drop dramatically soon, the death count will be around 2000-3000 per day.
  • jR
    james R.
    8 July 2020 @ 22:58
    It’s a policy error when people get evicted? Ok Bernie!
    • DL
      David L.
      9 July 2020 @ 11:24
      I'm certainly no fan of Bernie, but if the government has mandated an economic shutdown, it seems to me that it should bear some responsibility for the economic consequences.
  • CA
    Cyrus A.
    9 July 2020 @ 09:13
    Interesting point on evictions as a sign post as to where the market is. I wonder if it is as binary as 'no rent paid, therefore evicted.' Obviously it's location dependent, but the picture is probably more nuanced comprising of tenants who can't afford any rent (so therefore evicted), and tenants who can afford, say 60% of rent, and landlords reluctantly accepting a 40% haircut because they realise the costs (and hassle) of having an empty property. If the balance in the rental market falls more into this latter scenario, i.e. landlords taking haircuts, evictions may not be as high as some believe. Of course, this may just end up passing the buck and squeeze landlords' loan obligations to banks and lenders. Thank you for the briefings.
    • DL
      David L.
      9 July 2020 @ 11:12
      Good points. Also, is there a large pool of other potential tenants who would be better able to pay than the current tenants? I suspect not.
  • JB
    Josh B.
    8 July 2020 @ 23:51
    Love you guys, but could you have Karl Denninger of market-ticker.org to provide some balance to the virus hype? I am not calling you screaming Karen's or anything, but I would like to here some of the other side from RealVision. 3 million cases is still only 1% of 300 mil people. Kind of seems like the government way over-stepped their bounds shutting down non-sanctioned (politically connected) businesses. Personally, I would just remind everyone none of us are making it out of here alive! Thanks guys. Like the daily briefing format in the current environment. Josh
    • CT
      Chris T.
      9 July 2020 @ 10:10
      This. Have mentioned myself, would be good to see some scientists on who have performed data based analysis. Michael Levitt (on twitter), Nobel prize winner who i'm sure would happily come on and provide his analysis for everyone.
  • JD
    Jesse D.
    9 July 2020 @ 02:45
    Like the show but not the plugs of other shows on the platform. Just my opinion. It’s basically just a big advertisement.
    • MG
      Michael G.
      9 July 2020 @ 09:05
      Not everyone gets time to watch everything so I find it good to get an overview of what is being discussed in other interviews. I also find it great when Ed and Ash get to put forward their views and discuss some of the comments that have been made. The MMT interview being a great example.
  • RW
    Richard W.
    9 July 2020 @ 08:25
    The more you listen to Ed, the more you realise how widely he knows and thinks. Very interesting discussion
  • JB
    Joshua B.
    9 July 2020 @ 07:28
    Peter Cooper's continuous hand movements are distracting. Otherwise, top-notch!
  • XM
    Xavier M.
    9 July 2020 @ 04:38
    Brilliant as usual gents. Great to have Ash back. There is no doubt this is the best pairing in the world of financial news reporting. And by the way, no mention of the surging gold price?
  • jR
    james R.
    8 July 2020 @ 23:04
    Because someone gets evicted in no way equates to being ‘put on the street’. It could just has likely mean they’ve chosen to stiff their landlord and move back in with they parents.
    • VK
      Vaclav K.
      9 July 2020 @ 04:26
      Also, I don't think evicted equals landlord is bad and government is bad. I think it is more likely that rentees had no money to back them up in crises, lived in over priced apartments and so on.
  • SZ
    SALEH Z.
    9 July 2020 @ 03:57
    Pete, you gotta speak up dude...nice and loud pls
  • WY
    William Y.
    9 July 2020 @ 03:06
    Enjoyed another great discussion between Ash and Ed. The third silent participant, Mic had little to say yet was often featured center stage. Mic may need to revert to an off camera support role. Again, thanks for all the good stuff Ash and Ed!
  • SS
    Sheldon S.
    9 July 2020 @ 01:11
    I understand, COVID is important but I tune out most news about it.
    • KV
      Konstantinos V.
      9 July 2020 @ 03:00
      I agree, especially since the information is so inconsistent at this time. I believe it's valuable only since we know people will respond to the data. In 2 - 3 years I think we will have much better perspective in regards to the virus.
  • RT
    Richard T.
    9 July 2020 @ 02:44
    Ash, your expectations are showing.
  • RT
    Richard T.
    9 July 2020 @ 02:41
    Ed, you bias is showing.
  • JN
    John N.
    9 July 2020 @ 01:44
    I would like to hear from economist who propose the steady state or ecological economics view. Let's hear how they view what has happened in our economy in the last 40 years, and most recently. This was proposed by Kenneth Boulding in the 60s and 70s. You talk to Austrian school, Chicago school, Keynesian but you have not heard from someone of this other view. This came out of the environmental movement of the 60s.
  • NC
    Nick C.
    9 July 2020 @ 01:14
    When is Ed going to get a ridiculous looking microphone? I think Ed can out do Ash! Who’s with me?
    • NC
      Nick C.
      9 July 2020 @ 01:17
      Maybe instead of a microphone he can get a big wireless / Bluetooth headset with a built in mic
  • NF
    N. F.
    8 July 2020 @ 23:59
    It’s so good to see the dynamic duo together again!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      9 July 2020 @ 00:16
      Thanks, N.F. It's good to be back.
  • EL
    Erik L.
    9 July 2020 @ 00:05
    Brooks Brothers: Private equity strip mining. A bigger American Icon.
  • DG
    Dave G.
    8 July 2020 @ 23:01
    Ok so where is all the money coming from to go into ETF's? Don't tell it's from the Fed and consumers are broke.
    • DG
      Dave G.
      8 July 2020 @ 23:03
      People can't pay their rent but can buy stonks. Ok
    • RM
      Robert M.
      9 July 2020 @ 00:04
      Money could be coming from PPP loans that people received by didn't need to run their business. Know one good example of a privately held company where that is the case. Also we know stimulus checks went into the market via brokers like Robinhood, though a lot of this was individual stocks and not ETFs. Could also be people sitting on cash that decided to move back into the market. Haven't seen bond fund flows, but maybe people switching from bonds to stocks. Since the top 10% own most of the stocks, it is not being as impacted by the large unemployment numbers.
  • MT
    Mark T.
    8 July 2020 @ 23:56
    When I wear dress shirts, I only wear ones with button down collars.
  • TB
    Tobin B.
    8 July 2020 @ 23:39
    MOAR MICROPHONE lol (like More Cowbell - youtube search if you havent seen it) Appreciate the overviews you gents have been doing.
  • EL
    Erik L.
    8 July 2020 @ 23:39
    Ash: please talk to a shrink about that glowing red phallic “Mike”. Plus move it away from your face/body.
  • CB
    Clifford B.
    8 July 2020 @ 23:30
    Cant decide if Ash's mic looks more like a bong or a Fram oil filter..
  • RD
    Ron D.
    8 July 2020 @ 23:22
    Snowman > NYC tourist poster.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    8 July 2020 @ 22:23
    Correction on the mortgage rates yr over yr. I believe Peter misspoke "3.29 to 3.26" should read, "3.92 to 3.26" as shown on the graph. Thanks for the info.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      8 July 2020 @ 22:50
      Hi Jon, thanks for this. It actually wasn't the year over year rate of change but rather the rate borrowers pay on average for a 30 year mortgage. Peter was saying it decreased from 3.29 (last week) to 3.26 (this week). But I see why you might have been confused. -Jack
    • JS
      Jon S.
      8 July 2020 @ 23:01
      I stand corrected. Thanks!