Daily Briefing – June 1, 2020

Published on
June 1st, 2020
Duration
30 minutes


Daily Briefing – June 1, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Ed Harrison

Published on: June 1st, 2020 • Duration: 30 minutes

Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss how the roiling civil unrest in the U.S. could affect businesses and financial markets. They look at the correlation of the Citi Surprise Index and bond yields, and Ed introduces three historical parallels to compare to the current moment. In the intro, Jack Farley gives an overview of global PMI data and Goldman Sachs' revised forecast for the S&P 500.

Comments

Transcript

  • rw
    richard w.
    3 June 2020 @ 10:43
    Well spoken Ash and Jack "fractious debate" will never get to the bottom of an argument on these topics.
  • BF
    Bret F.
    3 June 2020 @ 06:35
    June FED meeting will market be disappointed if Powell doesn't talk buying stocks
  • OC
    Otto C.
    2 June 2020 @ 22:47
    Great discussion!!! Could you expand on why you put so much emphasis on China's economic data knowing that China is not 100% transparent? It seems to me that that time could be used to discuss more relevant topics.
  • AM
    Ania M.
    2 June 2020 @ 18:31
    What do you guys think about these riots being the catalyst for the second wave of the virus? Seems like a quickly ticking time bomb to me.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    2 June 2020 @ 01:02
    1. Jack, please try to stop bouncing. 2. Ed, If you turn the autofocus off on your camera, it will not keep auto-changing the frame. 3. Ash, the LA Riots in 1992 were not localized. I remember responses in Detroit in particular. 4. I'm very grateful Ed mentioned Paris (May '68). 5. You guys are great.
    • AK
      Arthur K.
      2 June 2020 @ 18:15
      Atlanta had Rodney King riots. The rioting and looting are over a much larger area now, many more neighborhoods.
  • JD
    John D.
    2 June 2020 @ 07:16
    2001 London Riot are identical to the current farce.
    • KB
      Keith B.
      2 June 2020 @ 17:22
      2011 London riots
  • GC
    Gino C.
    2 June 2020 @ 04:10
    The Real Vision staff is excellent. I do like the daily updates but it sure would be nice to get more actionable investment advice once in a while. For the past couple of months if I just listen to the RV I basically made no money other than in gold gold miners and bitcoin. There are always good trades and investments out there… I’m hoping to get more advice on where to find such investments or trades.
    • JB
      Jon B.
      2 June 2020 @ 17:09
      ...... and the interviews get longer and longer.... need to apply some stricter editorial discipline. I don't have an hour to 2 hours a day to listen to RV,
  • IP
    IDA P.
    2 June 2020 @ 08:23
    Sorry , but yesterday 1st of june the Dax was closed for holidays, while the other European markets were open. The futures contract on the DAX was way up, which is a mistery of course but it went down on Friday 29th, not yesterday
    • HB
      Harijs B.
      2 June 2020 @ 14:30
      Evidence, that it's so easy to spin the narrative any way you want to "explain" the stock market moves.
  • MC
    Melson C.
    2 June 2020 @ 11:16
    Thanks Ed for getting a new webcam. You look crystal clear today
  • AG
    Alan G.
    2 June 2020 @ 00:51
    We have riots, issues with China, terrible economic data even rate of change in diffusion is better, election uncertainty,, unemployment yet market rises. We have Fed, and fiscal stimulus and the markets seems to make assumption that the Fed and fiscal stimulus is all powerful to take care of all issues. Inflation risks, Deficits and debt to GDP don’t matter either. Oh well
    • mB
      marc B.
      2 June 2020 @ 02:18
      Buy gold
    • AC
      Ashish C.
      2 June 2020 @ 11:11
      And bitcoin too!
  • MT
    Mike T.
    2 June 2020 @ 09:14
    off topic from the daily grind of market movement. On Monday June 1st a really significant event occured, a brand new Futures exchange based out of Chicago launched to general public. https://thesmallexchange.com/
  • ER
    Emma R.
    2 June 2020 @ 07:01
    Could you guys provide more insight into the square root recovery that has been mentioned a number of times. Are we talking about new highs before flatline or a mirror image square root where flatline occurs after partial recovery?
  • Dv
    Daniel v.
    2 June 2020 @ 06:48
    I have become a big fan of the Daily Briefing. So much usefull information to start the day with. Keep it up guys!
  • TK
    Tadej K.
    1 June 2020 @ 23:58
    To Jack: Dax cash market was closed today. But futures ended up higher not lower.
    • TK
      Tadej K.
      2 June 2020 @ 00:00
      No one gives a f*ck about PMIs now a days. If you are, you are loosing money - like RealVision audience has for the last 2 and half months. Plus - German PMI was in line with expectations.
    • mB
      marc B.
      2 June 2020 @ 02:21
      Tadej are you not investing in gold miners. Silver ripping!
    • JC
      Juan C.
      2 June 2020 @ 05:54
      Yes, the Dax was closed. The comment about it being down does not show the level of rigour I would have expected
  • PM
    Paul M.
    2 June 2020 @ 03:03
    Re Citi economic surprise index discussion: Does the stock market not comprise a significant portion of that index? If yes, the discussion related to it should account for that fact (as much of the discussion is circular logic).
  • CC
    Chris C.
    1 June 2020 @ 22:28
    My best to you Ed. #solidarity #blm #WorldAgainstRacism
    • MP
      Matthew P.
      2 June 2020 @ 02:49
      I echo that as well. All the best to you Ed. #Solidarity #Blm #WorldAgainstRacism
  • BA
    BURHANUDDIN A.
    2 June 2020 @ 01:34
    One recent social unrest analogy I would say are the 2011 England Riots, following the Mark Duggan murder & indirectly a result of the 2008 economic crisis, that also led to burnings & lootings.
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      2 June 2020 @ 02:20
      100%. Being from the UK myself, I remember that event passing by pretty quickly and not much changed economically or politically either. As it descended into looting, which these protests have too, it was generally viewed as simply criminal behaviour, and so any morale argument was lost on the majority of the public. Combined with Covid it could be a different story as I expect it will increase infection rate, and put extra pressure on small local businesses. Also the effect it has the the election is yet to be seen. I expect it could benefit Trump if he comes across as strong on law and order which imo would bounce the markets higher.
  • mB
    marc B.
    2 June 2020 @ 02:17
    I like the viewpoint of political events and how it can cause the markets to move. I also like hearing the potential market outcomes. Ed is really good at looking at both side of the potential outcomes. Although my viewpoint stands very closely with Ash viewpoint. It helps with risk management. Thanks again.
  • SP
    Saxon P.
    2 June 2020 @ 00:40
    Totally agree the focus of RV should be markets based and not politics, except where politics impacts markets. Thanks for great insights.
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      2 June 2020 @ 01:52
      Same. Your never going to win by giving a political opinion as there will always be people that strongly agree or disagree. Solid economic is where it is at.
    • SK
      Shiu K.
      2 June 2020 @ 02:11
      I totally agree with this. I am also concerned that the tensions between US and China will escalate into a hot war (in which no Cayman bunker will be safe from). And when I say hot war, a Nuclear War, because we are not fighting with swords anymore. In an era where politicians are on social media engaging in verbal escalations, I believe the media has a responsibility not to over-sensationalize. If we don't care about ourselves, think of our children and grandchildren.
  • MP
    M P.
    2 June 2020 @ 01:56
    A second wave of the Corona Virus or any other virus does not correlate to a government shut down of businesses. The reason for this recession leading to a depression is directly related to the government shutting businesses. It's too late now.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    1 June 2020 @ 23:22
    BTC breaks 10k on Trump's deploying troops to the streets speech. Hope this time it breaks through 10k and stays there.
    • cs
      connor s.
      2 June 2020 @ 01:00
      10k flat is the strong level. IF it holds that for 24 hrs the sky is the limit
  • cs
    connor s.
    2 June 2020 @ 00:28
    Methinks Jack was on fire today. Well done me lad 😊
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    2 June 2020 @ 00:03
    IMO the market's biggest risk lays with the election. Stay tuned ...as of today TPTB think that nothing changes and the status quo will prevail. But the minute that changes hold onto your seat... the ride will be very bumpy. You will know when that occurs just watch the market.
  • RY
    Ron Y.
    1 June 2020 @ 23:59
    Wow ! ! Ed's phrase about 3 months from now there being a "reckoning" in the market, THAT struck a chord of truth to me. GREAT POINT and WELL SAID.
  • MT
    Mark T.
    1 June 2020 @ 22:04
    Protests are fine. Riots are not.
    • LC
      Leigh C.
      1 June 2020 @ 23:46
      However these are not the first protests of this kind in the US and what change came of those? When protests aren't heard people may riot. I'm not saying it's right but it ain't as black and white as you're statement suggests
  • VR
    Victoria R.
    1 June 2020 @ 23:09
    Fantastic conversation. I try to focus on the better outcomes, but struggle right now. Not being from America, I wonder how a pack of cigarettes results in 4 officers called, and a death. I have participated in the markets for 40 years, but feel deflated, where is reason? Many thanks Ash and Ed for profound professionalism. Now I am crying.
    • PB
      Phillip B.
      1 June 2020 @ 23:39
      I am from America. The country seems to have lost it's way. Many of us here are crying as well. America is not exceptional after all. America is not the shining city on the hill after all. America's ruling elites pissed away hegemonic advantages while at the same time these elites looted America, and the elites continue to loot America's riches. America has many gifts, including perhaps the best geography of any country in the world, decent but not great demographics, and an outlook that is unique. Short term, say, next five or six years, it's going to be tough for America. Later in the decade, should be ok, I am optimistic longer term.
  • SW
    Suzanne W.
    1 June 2020 @ 23:35
    Great intro Jack! You're well informed.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    1 June 2020 @ 22:41
    Recall during the first few weeks of COVID 19 in Italy, Iran, and the US; the US equity market was unfazed and continued to climb.
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    1 June 2020 @ 22:38
    You guys are great. Your thoughts on politics with the focus on markets is fresh air and one of the main reasons why RV is thriving. Yes we all have our slants, but ultimately we are listening to protect and/or increase our net worth. We have to be flexible regardless of the political situation. Thanks for doing a great job given all that went on this weekend.