Daily Briefing – June 10, 2020

Published on
June 10th, 2020
Duration
35 minutes


Daily Briefing – June 10, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Jay Pelosky

Published on: June 10th, 2020 • Duration: 35 minutes

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins Jay Pelosky, CIO and co-founder of TPW Investment Management, to unpack his contrarian and bullish thesis on the economy and markets. Pelosky argues that the big plays for 2020 is not in tech, but in commodities, as well as in value stocks and cyclicals. He explains that the overwhelmingly strong stimulus, both in the forms of monetary and fiscal policies, have undergirded demand in a way that will allow it to spring back later in the year. Pelosky also discusses why this is the decade of Europe and ESG, the growing appreciation for EM currencies, and the potential headwinds that might dampen the current broad appetite for equities. In the intro, Jack Farley reviews the Fed's latest press release and delves into some of their rate forecasts and economic projections.

Comments

Transcript

  • Sv
    Sid v.
    16 June 2020 @ 21:51
    Does this guy know about Brexit? European Banks are great? Hmmm.. This all sound like the contrarian position. Good to hear.
  • PU
    Peter U.
    11 June 2020 @ 18:48
    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/coronavirus-banks-collapse/612247/
    • CH
      Connor H.
      16 June 2020 @ 04:01
      Great concise explanatory article.
  • FM
    Felix M.
    14 June 2020 @ 18:31
    Bring this guy back after being vaccinated and let’s talk side effects
  • JW
    J W.
    12 June 2020 @ 19:51
    I think this opinion does not meet the ‘look out of the window’ test and this video won’t age well, but I also respect the point of view. Some of this is simply opinion , so who knows who is right and by when. Sometimes you get married to your option and this forces one to re-examine. A positive outlook on Europe - one does not see that too often :-)
  • MS
    Marius S.
    12 June 2020 @ 10:34
    Great to get a bullish perspective. Doom and gloom might be more fun, but for this precise reason an alternative perspective is so valuable. Thanks RV.
  • LS
    Lam S.
    12 June 2020 @ 05:18
    Always good to know who's taking the other side of your trade.
  • AD
    Antonio D.
    12 June 2020 @ 03:33
    Consider inviting Thomas Lee (Twitter @fundstrat) as he will also have the dual perspective of a Bull on both Equity Market and BTC - may make it easier to digest
  • PB
    Patrick B.
    12 June 2020 @ 02:12
    No Thurs briefing?
  • JA
    Johnny A.
    12 June 2020 @ 01:58
    OMG a bull on RV?!?! I never thought I'd see the day. Just in time to call the top of this rally too. 1/3 of the folks here gave him a thumbs down. Me finks RV subs think price cares about their opinion.
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    12 June 2020 @ 00:35
    Had to hold my nose on this one. If you are going to discuss investing in equities there must be discussion about credit risk, GAAP earnings and free cash flow. Outdated concepts. I suppose. This is the mentality that called Julian Robertson and idiot in 2000, Michael Burry an idiot in 2006 and now I suppose Jeremy Grantham is an idiot. European banks have healthy balance sheets? Lol
  • JH
    Joel H.
    11 June 2020 @ 22:49
    Timing not that great on this one.
  • mf
    massimo f.
    11 June 2020 @ 21:19
    What I find interesting about this point of view is on one hand this recession isnt like any other so lets throw out the rulebook; but on the other hand lets compare the recovery to other recessions. It makes it so hard for me to consider their point of view, often what they propose is so questionable. Buy european banks?
  • PW
    Phil W.
    11 June 2020 @ 21:10
    just watched...............Thanks for the alt view!
  • TR
    Thomas R.
    11 June 2020 @ 19:05
    That was fun. The Glass Full/Full projection. Amusingly, he's prob. only been wrong 3X out of 20 years. Which is far better than my record. I suppose retail clients prefer a happy story.
  • JN
    Jerrick N.
    11 June 2020 @ 18:28
    Oh man this just gets more hilarious the more I watch, he got 100% proven wrong today, every single call
  • cs
    connor s.
    11 June 2020 @ 18:21
    [global cases continue to grow...] " A rolling thunder of re-opening" & "we've already bottomed, the recession ended in may, with the job numbers" is setting up Jay for explosion risk. The federal stimulus stops in July, the welfare state ends, the next phase of the downturn begins COVID remains the unpredictable accelerant to the downside good to bring on these view points RV team! just because we don't agree doesn't mean he's 100% wrong. More of this
  • WZ
    Wei Z.
    11 June 2020 @ 18:05
    Bring the old format back please.
  • JN
    Jerrick N.
    11 June 2020 @ 18:03
    Ha and the Dow drops over 5% this morning. Hilarious
  • CH
    Connor H.
    11 June 2020 @ 17:49
    How's that bull thesis looking today? Please keep the sell side uber-bulls off the show. What a clown.
  • JV
    Jan V.
    11 June 2020 @ 16:40
    I agree with the idea of bringing opposing views to the show. However i think RVDB is diverging from it's mission: keeping viewers up to date with the dynamic news cycle. RVDB should cover important events and invite guests to have an intelligent discussion about it (bullish and bearish). If there are no important events that day, i wouldn't mind if you guys skipped an interview. I will only continue to watch 2 interviews each days if there is added value. This was just a guest presenting his bullish outlook. It's good to have him, but preferably on another show.
  • JJ
    John J.
    11 June 2020 @ 16:36
    I'd like to have whatever he is smoking. Ironic that this blowout prediction happened the day before the market goes down 1,300 point.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    11 June 2020 @ 15:55
    What’s frustrating to me is that there is no real framework of analysis here - he cites a number of indexes and beliefs - he isn’t actually speaking from data. These are all “projections,” or that’s what it seems to me, anyway. I think he is going to get caught very offside in real terms.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      11 June 2020 @ 16:05
      I agree with Jay that we are likely looking at inflation, but it’s definitely NOT a new bull market. More like stagflation + universal basic income in the US. Many jobs are not coming back. He seems to completely ignore this fundamental point.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      11 June 2020 @ 16:12
      The interview with Gerard Minack is a better framework for thinking about things right now.
  • DH
    Declan H.
    11 June 2020 @ 16:06
    We are in a market phase when people are buying stocks of companies filing for bankruptcies and we have laptop traders with a career no longer than 5 months telling us they are better than Buffet. Meanwhile everything has been closed for months and people are being paid more by the govt to stay home than to work AND in many states and countries around the world COVID death rates are rising again. How can we be in a bull market??? BRRRRR!!!
  • PU
    Peter U.
    11 June 2020 @ 15:40
    Blowhard!
  • JV
    Jan V.
    11 June 2020 @ 15:39
    18 may: demolition of cooling tower at the Philippsburg nuclear power plant. 30 may: opening of the new Datteln 4 coal-fired power plant. The European green deal at its best...
  • PU
    Peter U.
    11 June 2020 @ 15:39
    How will banks in any country make any money with zero interest rates and minimal NIM?
  • RW
    Richard W.
    11 June 2020 @ 15:22
    I think this was terrible. I appreciate having different view points, but this guy just rams it don't your throat like a machine gun. He speaks far too loudly, and it is like being on the receiving end of an over-zealous used car salesman. Please get someone who is a bull who is not so in-your-face, enabling one to seriously consider what they are saying. I really struggled to listen to it all. He also seems to profess some form of pan-financial expertise which it is neither credible, nor something which most of your guests attempt. However, I do appreciate Ash's valiant attempts to try to keep some form of control - I suspect that with a bit more probing (possibly that would have been impolite), there would appear less substance behind the loudly stated views than Jay would wish to have known. On several occasions I noticed that he appeared to stumble on relatively simple follow-up questions.
  • TH
    Tal H.
    11 June 2020 @ 08:39
    Nice, bull market! BRB taking a loan for a leveraged SPX ETF Money is ez
    • WG
      Wade G.
      11 June 2020 @ 15:20
      haha
  • WG
    Wade G.
    11 June 2020 @ 15:17
    Great interview; interesting guest; easy to understand. I appreciate Ash probing and pushing back some; it gave Jay an opportunity to expand and defend his views. At the end of it, thou he didn't win me over, I do have more perspective to chew on. Thot his point around 16:30 that many missed the bottom, but they won't miss the rotation, was really insightful. I buy that, even if it might be cut short because the market turns back down and shows us that wasn't the bottom. My problem is that what he stated were threats to his thesis (covid resurgence; election/political strife; implied policy uncertainty) constitute my base case. Nevertheless, I thot he made some pretty compelling arguments re: relative value and even reflation. Thanks for mixing it up RV. Definitely makes me think. Thanks to Mr. Pelosky for sharing his views.
  • KN
    Krister N.
    11 June 2020 @ 15:08
    Whitney is this guy smoking? Why not take his whole family on a cruise. I need a drink.
  • PU
    Peter U.
    11 June 2020 @ 15:00
    The Citi panic/euphoria model of investor sentiment is at its most euphoric since the Dotcom bubble This guy is data mining his talking points!
  • PU
    Peter U.
    11 June 2020 @ 14:53
    European banks . . . following Japanese banks. . . . soon US banks will follow both
  • PU
    Peter U.
    11 June 2020 @ 14:51
    willing suspension of disbelief . . . we are in a new bull market
  • DM
    Don M.
    11 June 2020 @ 14:04
    Always question politics in views. When he said demonstrations were largely due to people being cooped up... hmmm
  • KS
    Karin S.
    11 June 2020 @ 13:55
    I really enjoyed this, although not sure what he sees in European banks, I wouldn't even touch Domestic banks.
  • IP
    IDA P.
    11 June 2020 @ 13:34
    I don't understand why he doesn't consider that many European banks, especially Franch ones may be nationalized
  • IP
    IDA P.
    11 June 2020 @ 13:33
    this was really interesting
  • DB
    Donna B.
    11 June 2020 @ 13:03
    Consider having a bull and bear on at the same time with an interviewer to challenge each other's views. In a civil discourse, of course.
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    11 June 2020 @ 12:31
    Holy cow, this was awesome. Thank you for bringing a new perspective on.
  • ST
    Steven T.
    10 June 2020 @ 23:51
    Banks in Europe might be cheap for a very good reason.
    • WD
      Wim D.
      11 June 2020 @ 11:57
      As a European, yes.. Banks are terrible in the EUSSR. They have difficulties making money on standard banking/lending operations with the yield curve as it is, and neg. intrest rates. Plenty of default risk (Italy, Greece, Spain..),.. so not good for the credit books. Capex investments in Europe are terrible, besides real estate.. (to be seen how that turns out) And last but not least don't forget the demographics.. Europe on avg. is old, and with few young people.. As a European I cannot make myself invest in Europe...
  • CA
    Cyrus A.
    11 June 2020 @ 11:56
    Appreciate the different perspective as a counter weight to one's current thesis. But, for what it's worth, don't agree with a word he says! Super bullish
  • RK
    Robert K.
    11 June 2020 @ 11:38
    new bull market LOL
  • SH
    Sahil H.
    11 June 2020 @ 02:26
    Great to here someone discuss a new phase of a bull market even though I completely disagree with the thesis. I think one of the best things RV does is bringing on guests with alternative perspectives and allowing them to flesh out their thesis despite whatever the interviewer may believe. Now that markets are starting to hit ATH's and we've got so many retailers pilling into the markets making crazy money ,it would be awesome to hear Tony Greer's TA and to get his thoughts on where the market is going from a technical perspective. It would be timely given that last time he was on he referred to the breaking of the 3130 region in the S&P500 being a critical level. We are above that level now and the re-opening is underway. From what I'm observing and hearing on twitter this feels EXACTLY like what the crypto bubble was like in 2017. Also another thought on the re-opening. Here in Australia things seem to have gotten back to normal again. There isn't a whole lot of social distancing being followed and the opinions of many people around me are that the Coronavirus was really a non-event and our government over reacted to the whole situation. No one was really afraid of getting it and that opinion hasn't changed much. Will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few weeks. If we don't get a spike in cases after the thousands of people that were protesting BLM on the weekend then I think we won't have to worry much about the virus. However, I personally believe there is a huge risk of transmissions rising because of the protests and the general public's over confidence with our handling of the virus. Another point to make about the re-opening is that I tried to go to bar with a friend on the weekend and we couldn't get into anywhere because the venues were at capacity due to restrictions that are now enforced. So it seems like there is a limit on the demand side, even for those of us that are willing to go out.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      11 June 2020 @ 04:49
      There are many in the US that have the same approach as the Aussies as far as the virus. This is now leading us to see a step in cases in many states and some hospitals getting pushed on available beds. My expectation is that this trend will accelerate after the protests and with the general reopening. The news outlets are starting to talk about it again. Not sure what would stop the spread, but if it continues, a segment of the population will self quarantine and this will slow down the economic bounce. Where I live, a number of long time restaurants are closing their doors permanently. One whole industry (music) has pretty much stopped for the year in a live format. Tourism is down hurting lots of vendors. Government receipts are down, leading to lower spending on the state and city level. And like Australia, capacity limitations are hurting business. So it seems the thesis needs to be based on the impact of a second wave and how meaningful that wave will be. As personal and business balance sheets continue to deteriorate, free government money may be the only think that can fill the hole.
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      11 June 2020 @ 11:34
      Luckily for us we seem to have a tight control over the virus. However, as far as I am aware there isn't any mandatory testing going on in Australia, at least not where I live. I hope someone can correct me if I'm wrong about this. But if that is the broader case then there is likely many more asymptomatic cases spreading in our country that are yet to be captured by the healthcare system. If this is true then we will likely see a spike in cases in the coming weeks here in Australia. Its interesting to hear your thoughts on the similarities between the US and AU yeah 100% agree with you there stimulus will be the key factor in filling the demand void. The real question is how willing are governments and CB's to continue the unheard of amounts of stimulus they are pumping into our economies? I'm thinking their mindset was centered around the following thought process: Covid was the largest demand shock/supply shock we've experienced in the modern world, therefore, we need insane amounts of stimulus to combat it. But the economy was fine before right? So if we just pump this money into the economy to fill this void, in 4 months time everything will go back to normal and we won't have any issues once we reopen everything. Obviously that is not the case moving forward but its the language and ideas that most governments around the world have pushed onto the general public. It probably explains why most financial markets aren't pricing in any risk for the complete uncertainty that anyone has about Q3 let alone Q4 2020. Because the masses have bought the above narrative that governments have been pushing onto us.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    11 June 2020 @ 11:31
    Decade of Europe?! With atrocious demographics, pension obligations, taxes, red tape,....yes, immigration is helping, but all of them working, paying taxes, etc....?
  • JW
    Jim W.
    11 June 2020 @ 07:56
    First, operations/housekeeping. I listen to the daily brief because it does the best market summary of anything in the market (and that includes the 30-40 bloomberg podcasts that are out there, along with NPR etc). It is typically more for a sophisticated-ish investor, but isn't dropping into the macroinsider definitely sophisticated camp that requires re-listening and re-reading the transcript. I would like to see the RVDB remain(?) an internal program which ranges in length from 10-30 minutes depending on content, with someone like this as a separate interview. I thought Ash performed reasonably well, pushing a bit without being overly aggressive, and I also appreciate the desire to get a bullish view on markets. I would have liked to have seen a bit more, though, along the lines of "OK, look, you're calling the bottom in European banks now, fine. Why now? Why not 2 years ago or 2 years from now?" That sort of framing would have forced a demonstration of deeper understanding, or not, on the part of the guest. Similarly, on the tri-lateral world, I would have loved to hear how Brexit fits with that, the likelihood of true fiscal union and whether or not JF sees Europe building its own defense forces--though perhaps that wasn't really available in the RVDB time slot. Net-net, I'd be fine having him on again, but preferably on the regular RV channel rather than the RBDB, with an understanding that the RV audience is not going to be satisfied with "well, I'm not a tech guy but I think it is moving the right way" or whatever.
    • JC
      Julian C.
      11 June 2020 @ 11:18
      Yes, agreed, I like the RVDB to be the regular market wrap which is so helpful. And quite relaxed if its only 10 minutes on quiet days. A very interesting alternative view. Good work all.
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    11 June 2020 @ 11:03
    Nice to see a different perspective. I don't agree on many things, eg betting on the future of the USSR... I mean EU. But I like his positive perspective, especially on demand coming back with inflation.
  • JF
    John F.
    11 June 2020 @ 10:32
    Good interview Ash. Really. Why is Jay so hard to listen to despite the full backing of his data used to paint such a pretty picture? The May employment report was a sham, the mistake was posted right in the report which was weird all by itself, so what is this guy talking about? He sounds like he’s pumping for a position in the current administration. Im sure Jay has to think forward and look for “surprises” or he’s out of a job. Looking for surprises is not a forecast. Does he actually believe this is a REAL market one can believe in?? You HAVE to do a follow up to Jays perspective 3 months from now. I for one would like the comparison. Good to hear diverse opinions.
  • CB
    Clifford B.
    11 June 2020 @ 09:15
    Excellent interview Ash. May not agree on everything but you got Jay to expand on his viewpoints masterfully. Jays points were articulated very well.
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    11 June 2020 @ 08:26
    With all due respect to Jay, I’d like to hear Chris Whalen’s detailed view on EU banks before I’d go anywhere near them. Europe the next 10 years? Personally that’s a huge ask, fiscal consolidation IF it happens will be long and painful in coming IMO, during which I can’t see a booming European economy.
  • JV
    Jonny V.
    11 June 2020 @ 08:07
    Great interview by Ash, the right level of polite challenging of Jack to pry out more details! Found that some interviews, even by Raol, have missed the opportunuty to challenge a bit more to get the guest to defend and further clarify their view/perspective. Excellent with a divirging view laid out in some detail, always important to hear and evaluate the counter narrative regardless of one's own views. Understanding why and where the bulls are running helps both if you consider running with them, or against them.
  • AW
    Abigail W.
    11 June 2020 @ 07:23
    very much appreciate RV's effort to find a bull, and I do agree with the bullish view of Jay on EM and commodities.
  • KD
    Karl D.
    11 June 2020 @ 07:18
    I completely disagree with Jay but i really appreciate hearing from the other side.
  • SL
    Shawn L.
    11 June 2020 @ 06:57
    It seems almost everyone's thesis is correct if they wait long enough. His optimism is a refreshing perspective to balance other's, but I question the timing. European value? How can there be value when the very union itself is in question? Lastly, his thesis of optimism is spot on in the short term, but how does it translate going forward? Any short term optimism attempting to continue into long term optimism ignores the real pain the world economy is experiencing.
  • IP
    IDA P.
    11 June 2020 @ 06:45
    there is no dollar shortage in his analysis I guess
  • JC
    Juan C.
    11 June 2020 @ 06:09
    A breath of fresh air, irrespective of one agreeing with him or not. Some previous comentators had worn down, which is none of their fault. It is just very difficult to come up with something new on a daily basis.
  • JR
    Josh R.
    11 June 2020 @ 03:47
    Aussie banks?
    • AS
      Ash S.
      11 June 2020 @ 05:42
      When he said outside of the US value trades....in financials, that could be taken as a general positive in my opinion. See how many mortgage deferrals default post September I guess!
  • AS
    Ash S.
    11 June 2020 @ 05:21
    Great interview with a new perspective.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    11 June 2020 @ 01:01
    While I appreciate having an opposing view, it appears (to me) the guest had a conclusion and then has constructed a narrative to support it which seems fallacious in less than 3 months from a substantial selloff. Just not very rigorous. I would be looking for confirming indicators. To wit: 1) AAII. I have heard this is not very accurate as it is a poll of individual investorsbut as it may, the NAAIM was 91.60 last week, 15 at the March bottom, and 87 at the Feb top. 2) The copper:gold ratio has not broken above the 200 day MA so business demand isn't there and in turn, a general recovery of industry seems "iffy" 3) HYG:IEF, the risk on/risk off indicator, has been unable to close above the 200 day MA so while the markets have bounced, there's not a migration to risk. 4) I can't speak to the non US markets but VEU:SPY sez no soap. 5) If the markets are truly recovering, why haven't the Dow Transports lead the way up? The "rally" of the cats and dogs the last 2 weeks don't count and it appears they rolled over again today. 6) Declaring a "new bull market" when it is being lead primarily by a handful of stocks breaking out (the generals) and the rest flat to down seems weak tea to me. Other that, Mrs Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?...LOL
    • RM
      Robert M.
      11 June 2020 @ 04:55
      Have to agree. Also struggle with the idea that markets will go up because money is on the sidelines. Money will still go into bonds as well as other investments like real estate or private equity. It doesn't necessarily have to flow to the public equity markets.
  • mB
    marc B.
    11 June 2020 @ 02:04
    Great interview. We need more bullish equity. Reflation trade people. Great opening. The bear v bull is fun. He made some great points like demand may be higher than we anticipate. Car sales. I Can’t wait to vacation but will be next summer.
    • mB
      marc B.
      11 June 2020 @ 02:07
      The thing is tho that the market is pricing in v recovery that finally Powell state’s some transparency. My wuestion is with 80 billion a month in treasury purchase & 50 billion of mbs how to we trade for success. Gold/silver/bitcoin/ us treasury; what else?
    • RM
      Robert M.
      11 June 2020 @ 04:51
      That's what makes markets. Lots of smart people are making good arguments on the deflation side. Right now, I am going with Lacy Hunt's advice on the future of inflation and rates.
  • RA
    Ralph A.
    11 June 2020 @ 04:51
    When I heard him say that the Fed will do anything needed to aid a recovery, I heard “the Fed will do anything needed to destroy the purchasing power of the US dollar”
  • CP
    Christopher P.
    11 June 2020 @ 04:23
    A really interesting guest, and quite a contrast to many of the usual narratives featured on RV. Also in contrast, this guest seemed incredibly confident, which is worrying. I am always a little unsettled when someone has little doubt in their conviction. Most guests on here talk about probabilities, whereas this guy's talking in binary terms.
  • RN
    Richard N.
    11 June 2020 @ 03:57
    Refreshing to hear a well-articulated bull case. I don't agree with him at the outset, but I'm definitely going to dig deeper into his thesis. Great job with this interview Ash and Jay.
  • AN
    Andrew N.
    10 June 2020 @ 23:41
    I feel like I just watched a Pentagon briefing. Apparently we're going to win over Vietnamese hearts and minds with all our great technology in operation Rolling Thunder.
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      11 June 2020 @ 01:58
      Haha true.
    • JH
      Jess H.
      11 June 2020 @ 03:44
      The Vietnamese are resilient people, and their country is open today to American visitors and American trade. Nonetheless, it is either ignorant or callous to use the phrase Rolling Thunder in the context of remarks that include investing in emerging markets. Operation Rolling Thunder was an American sustained bombing campaign over eight months in duration with over 300,000 sorties, many of which targeted civilians, dropping in excess of a half million tons of bombs on North Vietnam.
  • mi
    mitchell i.
    11 June 2020 @ 03:39
    He sees industrials, Materials, Energy, and Finance sectors being the next bull market with a shift away from tech. He is also bullish European Banks and ESG
  • TB
    Tobin B.
    11 June 2020 @ 00:39
    Hey while we're bringing new folks on, I had a thought, that may well have already been considered, but I am a customer, so I say _when_ I think, and I will make a suggestion. These gentlemen got me into understanding money, fiat, value, whatever you call it, and while they also provide internet content for profit, may step up their game and add community value if Real Vision had them on. Interested to hear your thoughts. While I feel these are fundamental financial inputters, they might be new to others. Robert Kiyosaki Mike Maloney Richard Duncan George Gammon
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      11 June 2020 @ 00:41
      Yeah, good idea. Duncan is in Thailand. Might be tough to bring him on. But, he brings a wholly different perspective. He's a great guest to discuss the room that the expansion of "creditism" might provide.
    • se
      steve e.
      11 June 2020 @ 01:07
      Gary Shilling. Would like to hear his updated perspective on bonds.
    • mi
      mitchell i.
      11 June 2020 @ 03:35
      George Gammon is great
  • JS
    John S.
    10 June 2020 @ 23:04
    What is this guy smoking?
    • DS
      David S.
      11 June 2020 @ 00:32
      It is the money not yet in the market. If this really is the beginning of hyperinflation, then Mr. Pelosky and Mr. Green are correct - different reasons. We old folks keep thinking that the markets should reflect the valuations of companies. Maybe the Warren Buffet era of value investing is giving way to excess money that wants a home. If we ever get back to value investing, the market will fall 50%. That will wipe out a lot of QE. DLS
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      11 June 2020 @ 03:25
      He probably started taking financial advice from his 14 year old son
  • OC
    Otto C.
    10 June 2020 @ 23:05
    It would be nice if interviewers push back on obviously contrarian views instead of just agreeing with guest. For example, Pelosky claims that the current environment is good for financials but the conventional belief is that lower rates are horrible for financials and that view was reinforced by the market today (XLF has been down almost 5% in the last two sessions). It would have been nice to dig into his argument.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      10 June 2020 @ 23:14
      I am watching this now. And I see a lot of pushback, not in your face callouts, but consistent questions about why his thesis makes sense. For example, on European banks, the question was why, true value or just beaten down. And that gave us a whole discussion of why European financials make sense. My view: we need to hear the bullish case with the obvious pushback. And this interview was good on that score.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      10 June 2020 @ 23:16
      Thanks for the comment, Otto. The challenge in the short format of RVDB is letting the guest get out their full thesis, even though we may agree or disagree. I push back a fair amount in the second half of the interview, but my own feeling is that it’s generally more useful to understand the analysis behind the thesis than to argue against it. The better solution is usually to have another guest on who thinks the opposite and let them fully unpack their view. Curious to hear thoughts on this.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      10 June 2020 @ 23:18
      Another example is when Ash asked Jay about this looking like a bubble. And Jay explained why he doesn’t think this isn’t 1999. Again, you may disagree with his macro view. But Jay had ample opportunity to explain why his thesis makes sense in a market that a lot of people (including me) thinks looks overextended.
    • jh
      jun h.
      10 June 2020 @ 23:39
      We should interview mike green again,his passive flow thesis make so much sense and he called the bottom in March.
    • jh
      jun h.
      10 June 2020 @ 23:46
      Please available for the interview for regular subscribers. A lot of people here missed the bottom and dont have enough $ for the real vision pro. lol
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      10 June 2020 @ 23:55
      Flat curve and negative interest rates are bad for banks. Low interest rates are not necessarily bad for banks
    • SB
      Simon B.
      11 June 2020 @ 00:19
      Pelosky has been long EU financials for quite sometime now...perhaps he is not the best person to comment on that subject ? They are plenty of other RV videos regarding this topic for you to watch
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      11 June 2020 @ 01:54
      Can't really agree, I think Ash got in the contrarian view nicely on quite a few occasions, without being overly aggressive. So was a good balance.
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      11 June 2020 @ 03:23
      I completely get the idea of being more pushy with a contrarian view on these interviews but there's a fine line between extracting information from a guest and basically forcing them to agree with your own thesis. One of the things that I believe gives RV a real edge compared to other financial commentary is that the interviewers ask the right questions with enough force to get the guests talking about what they really believe. If interviewers start being too forceful in pushing their own thesis then guests who know what the interviewer believes ahead of time will likely come on and echo those ideas. Obviously there are plenty of people in the financial space that are still happy to be contrarian. But I think the best information is extracted when an interviewer makes the guest feel safe to share their own thoughts as it minimizes the chance of these types of unconscious biases from playing out.
  • JH
    Jess H.
    11 June 2020 @ 02:58
    Mr. Pelosky is on a tilt. He's an intelligent, well-informed man with an excellent memory for numbers. Difficult to fathom how he could form a perspective that is so bullish. He looked at a Rorschach ink blot and saw an enormous, beautiful dollar sign. Difficult to argue that he's absolutely wrong, given the current state of price discovery in the markets but perhaps the expected resurgence of the virus and the impending debacle in earnings reports will soon come into play.
  • RH
    Rob H.
    11 June 2020 @ 02:33
    Great to see a bullish perspective. He's right on travel, Airbnb bookings are off the hook now.
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    11 June 2020 @ 02:26
    Trees "CAN" grow forever.. just use the Fed magic holy water. The Fed has mandated "NO RECESSION"...So be it.
  • SS
    Sheldon S.
    10 June 2020 @ 23:49
    Hooray for a positive outlook . . . for a change!
    • JS
      John S.
      11 June 2020 @ 02:22
      However ill conceived!
  • AS
    Aaron S.
    11 June 2020 @ 00:15
    Understand we can’t explore all topics to depth in 30 minutes. But how does anyone know “we’re likely to get a vaccine by year end”?
    • JS
      John S.
      11 June 2020 @ 02:21
      Very low probability
  • CM
    Cory M.
    11 June 2020 @ 02:14
    Awesome, Ash!
  • TM
    Tyler M.
    10 June 2020 @ 23:12
    I appreciate hearing different views, but it'd be nice if glaring issues weren't just glossed over. He doesn't address the myriad of tough issues facing the market moving forward. Instead, it's as if nothing happened; COVID-19 came and went, no damage done, no real issues moving forward... that's the attitude. So, again, I learned a bit from this interview and I really do want views contrary to my own so I can test my thinking, but it would be nice to see guests pressed on the major assumption underlying their theses.
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      11 June 2020 @ 01:58
      Ash did question him on that, but the guy thought that demand would just spring back higher than before and negate the impact, People haven't lost out financially due to being bailed out by the fed. He has a point as most people I know here in the UK actually did better off financially as a result of the lockdown than without. I think that demand boost will be temporary though.
  • MR
    Matthew R.
    11 June 2020 @ 01:48
    These sound like the kind of guys that come on just before the stock market is about to plummet. I knew the market would keep going up until everyone was so confused and started to believe it would go on forever as the rich guys need time to get out and fleece the sheep, which is exactly why I didn't short it.
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      11 June 2020 @ 01:50
      BTW still appreciate this guys view, and as I'd rather hear the opposing view than just live in an echo chamber. And who knows, maybe he's right, I just wouldn't put my money on it.
  • JK
    Jim K.
    11 June 2020 @ 00:59
    Ash, nice job, but I must say that I was so looking forward to hearing the bullish case that was based on a framework and and not the simple based liquidity and market momentum. I just did not find Mr. Pelosky thought provoking or enlightening I am sorry to say. I found the comment about wholesale inventories off base as the wholesale inventory ratio hit a record high. Seems like it always comes down to monetary and fiscal expansion and nothing more, but it will be interesting to see if the rotation trade has any legs. A new bull market starting with such lofty valuations even using 2021 EPS seems like a stretch, but that is what makes markets I guess. Thanks again Ash
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      11 June 2020 @ 01:13
      Valuations don't matter any longer it seems. The "old" way of looking at the world, that, speaking for myself, I was trained in in the 1980s, doesn't apply any longer. The Fed has everyone's back. This could go on until there is $500T (rather than the current equivalent of ~$275T USD-denominated equivalent debt) worldwide. This ever increasing expansion is a good reason to bring in Richard Duncan. He is neither uber bull nor uber bear. Rather, His narrative circa March 10th, and I'm paraphrasing, would be: Look, if the Fed doesn't act, it's a deflationary winter. It all collapses. In our system, if credit doesn't expand 2% per year, you get the market tantrums, recessions, or worse. Duncan has constructive ideas on how to spend the money the government could borrowed at 0.025%. (Think AI, grid, bio, other infrastructure...stuff to make the US competitive longer term.) Duncan is not an uber-bull nor is he a MMT proponent. He is an observer of what makes the economy grow, and refers to our economic system as "creditism," a system we've had since about the early 1980s.
  • ZY
    ZHENG Y.
    11 June 2020 @ 01:08
    Opportunity is in value and cyclical and outside US...
  • MM
    MARTIN M.
    11 June 2020 @ 00:53
    Nice to hear a passionate bullish view. No surprises; Jay essentially checked all the boxes in terms of the views one would have to have to be bullish right here. "Balance Sheet Recession" would be the subject for folks like Jay to dive into. Plus, man, just to lend credibility to his case, I would counsel Jay to dispense with the word "absolutely" and the words "absolutely not" when discussing the prospects for his favorite sector(s). Humility is a must for those of us who make our livings investing other peoples' money. That said, I do respect that he clearly has the courage of his conviction!
  • BD
    Brian D.
    11 June 2020 @ 00:49
    WTF?
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    11 June 2020 @ 00:00
    Great interview Ash. Let's get Brent Johnson in!!!!
    • RD
      Ruediger D.
      11 June 2020 @ 00:48
      Good idea. Interesting to hear if he thinks his milkshake will recover from the covid19 infection or will pass away...smile...
  • MT
    Mark T.
    10 June 2020 @ 22:26
    Mr. Pelosky has a 180 degree view to that of Mr. Jeffrey Gundlach.
    • GC
      Gino C.
      10 June 2020 @ 23:11
      Here’s the problem... When the market was bottoming a couple months ago, RV had very bearish commentary and very bearish guests. Now that we are approaching new highs in the market I am hearing a lot of bullish sentiment from RV. Is this just my Imagination or is this really happening? Would love to know what others think. Maybe I’m expecting too much.
    • jh
      jun h.
      10 June 2020 @ 23:35
      Gundlach is suck at timing he is not a equity trader.
    • JL
      James L.
      10 June 2020 @ 23:36
      Bearish copper maybe. Not sure anyone on RV was telling you to load up on puts on 23 Mar
    • jR
      james R.
      10 June 2020 @ 23:52
      It’s a new program, just started during the crisis. I think the experimentation with guest perspectives is a net positive.
    • LC
      Leigh C.
      11 June 2020 @ 00:45
      Gino, people requested some more bullish guests in comments recently which is why they're are more on the past week.
  • PB
    PHILLIP B.
    11 June 2020 @ 00:38
    No knock on the guest. Good to have the different opinion. ...what could possibly go wrong? hmmm. Wow. I guess I'll have have to go in on SPY, and others, and have a -0.25% trailing stop I adjust every day. (Can get away with this since there is never more than five minutes that these markets are going to go down. I'll be close to the door when the music stops). Can't possibly lose. It's not a bubble, it's just an over-owned market. This is awesome!!
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      11 June 2020 @ 00:39
      The music is not going to stop. Stop losses are lame. Forget that -0.25% trailing stop.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      11 June 2020 @ 00:42
      The Fed has to to be freaking out about what they have wrought. I can't imagine that they expected these all time highs just a month or two back. Got to hand it to the guest that he is recommending markets outside the US.
  • TT
    Tokyo T.
    11 June 2020 @ 00:38
    Jay makes many sweeping statements for his investment ideas, with little or no data or explanation. These statements are hardly useful as a counter-argument to the bears. It would be nice to have a trader or a bull with a more compelling case. Cheerleading bulls usually get interviews on CNBC, so it was surprising to see such a generic old wall voice on RV.
  • DS
    David S.
    10 June 2020 @ 23:45
    A new bull after an 11 year expansion fueled by a debt orgy? Still, interesting to hear a contrasting view. I almost spit out my beer when he said he's been long EU banks for a while now. Thanks Ash!
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      10 June 2020 @ 23:59
      LOL
    • DS
      David S.
      11 June 2020 @ 00:22
      think Mr. Pelosky is looking at all the money that is not in the market with nowhere else to go. The stock market has not reflected the fundamentals for a long time. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      11 June 2020 @ 00:33
      Sorry. S/B - I think....
  • mw
    michael w.
    11 June 2020 @ 00:31
    Most Americans have no wealth. The same issues are just getting worse.
  • TB
    Tobin B.
    11 June 2020 @ 00:05
    I don't agree with much of what Jay says; in fact Im reading comments and replying while he parrots the Old World Way.. haha. BUT I DO like the idea of new guests for RVDB. Really enjoy you 3 regular guys Ash Ed Roger, however there's only so much a regular crew can push into a half hour.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      11 June 2020 @ 00:24
      Great. We will try this a few more times and see what you guys think after the first round of guests
  • DS
    David S.
    11 June 2020 @ 00:06
    It was a pleasure to see Mr. Pelosky again on RVTV. I like the idea of getting an "outside" view on the Daily Briefing each week. I believe Mr. Pelosky is calling the current market correctly. He certainly sees the glass half full. The market is awash with cash from the Fed, banks, leverage, from non-payments of rents and mortgages etc. The only long-term reason I can see that the market should go up in a COVID-19 world is hyperinflation caused by deluge of money printing. If this is true, then gold and Bitcoin will do up too. COVID-19 will determine the outcome. As with most small-time investors, my home is my biggest asset. If we are in hyperinflation. Do not forget to include it in your portfolio. DLS
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      11 June 2020 @ 00:16
      Yeah but Dollars are fake while Gold (and probably Bitcoin) are real
    • DS
      David S.
      11 June 2020 @ 00:23
      It is all fake, but I prefer gold. DLS
  • AH
    Anand H.
    11 June 2020 @ 00:19
    Glad to hear Jay's perspective - understanding the constraints of the interview format. The timeline framework you discussed with Ed may be worth incorporating into the next set of interviews (near-term, mid-term, long-term). Sounded like Jay near to mid term time-horizon in mind - but would be helpful to hear...
  • dd
    david d.
    11 June 2020 @ 00:17
    wrong view unless printing money is so powerful nothing can stop it, I dont think so
  • BB
    Bob B.
    11 June 2020 @ 00:15
    Mr. Farley's views sounded like someone talking his book. No mention of debt, Europe's cultural divisions, NIR and aging demographics. Somewhat cheery picking. I did like yesterday's quipped that maybe Robinhood replaced sports betting!
  • RC
    Randolph C.
    10 June 2020 @ 22:26
    Fed predictions are ridiculous, bunch of BS. Need to stop printing money and let markets revert to intrinsic value. Boomers accounts will have to suffer.
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      11 June 2020 @ 00:14
      Yes sir! But think about it; will Boomers --Those who currently hold majority of number, AND office-- let that happen? .. Spoiler: They wont. So what to do? Save cash, buy Bitcoin, Buy Gold, Sell those in a few years and buy twice as many of those Boomer McMansions at a discount when everyone *needs* to sell and turn them into Sharing Economy Housing ;) Jay does bring a huge insight to the future, and I appreciated hearing him make some forecasts about the coming years.
  • jg
    john g.
    11 June 2020 @ 00:14
    I guess it's nice to have a bull on RealVision. He's like the stock market, overvalues good news, discounts bad news. Note the Fed doesn't approach his level of optimism. If we have a record bull it will be on the backs of astronomical P/E ratios, which rather implies unsustainable profit growth.
  • RD
    Ruediger D.
    11 June 2020 @ 00:11
    If he is right that this is an (ongoing) bull market the v-shaped decline in May being just a sharp downside move in the uptrend as Ken Fisher pointed out yesterday this might turn into the expected crackup boom. Just look at what Powell was predicting concerning inflation rates in the next years and at the answer gold gave to him.
  • PS
    Patrick S.
    11 June 2020 @ 00:00
    Nah. Ash does a great job pushing back in a respectful and polite manner. You can't throw the hammer at your guest or that guest won't come back and future guests (with that idea tilt) won't want to come either.
  • DT
    David T.
    10 June 2020 @ 23:57
    Flip-Flopping has started.
  • DM
    Dom M.
    10 June 2020 @ 23:57
    To early to be outside the US.
  • DG
    Dave G.
    10 June 2020 @ 22:54
    Did we actually have a bear market? Guess I blinked and missed it. Find it hard to believe we are starting a new bull. Maybe we are in a fed induced extension of the previous bull.
    • DG
      Dave G.
      10 June 2020 @ 23:55
      I thought bear markets end with no one wanting to buy stocks anymore? Not what were seeing now.
  • AN
    Andrew N.
    10 June 2020 @ 23:50
    Was this interview conducted before or after the Fed released their forecast?
  • TB
    Tobin B.
    10 June 2020 @ 23:47
    Why do i even watch Fed Press Conferences when RV gives me the cliff notes in the first few seconds of RVDB lol keep it up
  • AN
    Andrew N.
    10 June 2020 @ 23:46
    That being said, I appreciate hearing the contrarian view. Thanks!
  • RM
    Robert M.
    10 June 2020 @ 23:46
    Great to have a counter view, don't agree with most of it though.
  • MS
    Marcus S.
    10 June 2020 @ 23:21
    A brilliant interview Ash! Just blown away and love the counter view!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      10 June 2020 @ 23:29
      Thanks, Marcus!
  • SG
    Satvinder G.
    10 June 2020 @ 23:20
    Please try and get David Hunter on RV. He has some great Macro insights on twitter and Palisades website.
  • DM
    Dominic M.
    10 June 2020 @ 23:17
    I really appreciate the freshness of this take. Thank you, Jay Pelosky.
  • JH
    Jacqueline H.
    10 June 2020 @ 22:59
    Ash, you get a gold star for managing that conversation.
  • SD
    Scott D.
    10 June 2020 @ 22:46
    Restaurants and Aspen? While covid cases are still on the rise? might have paid more attention to his economy outlook if he wasnt to far off the mark with everything else
  • DG
    Dave G.
    10 June 2020 @ 22:36
    Would be interesting if you guys could look into the dark pools. How does it affect the over all markets.