Daily Briefing – June 11, 2020

Published on
June 11th, 2020
Duration
32 minutes


Daily Briefing – June 11, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Peter Cooper, Ed Harrison, and Lloyd Khaner

Published on: June 11th, 2020 • Duration: 32 minutes

Managing editor Ed Harrison joins Lloyd Khaner, general partner and CIO at Khaner Capital Management, to discuss his macro outlook for the next year and beyond. Khaner explains some of the growth opportunities he sees in equity markets and breaks down how he determines value in a volatile market saturated with liquidity. In the intro, Peter Cooper gives an update on how the global reopening has affected the spread of coronavirus.

Comments

  • SN
    SAT N.
    15 June 2020 @ 18:54
    I'd like the host to ask some hard and probing questions.
  • LB
    Lorenzo B.
    13 June 2020 @ 16:28
    LYV loses mony on the Concert Biz which represents 85% of its revenues. they have so-so margins on Ticketings and amazing margins (huge ones) on Sponsorship & Ads, but the latter only represents 4% roughly of their total revenues. They are saddled with HUUUGE debt position 25X Ebitda and 1-to-7 D/E ratio I can't really see any bright side of the story there...
  • PC
    Peter C.
    12 June 2020 @ 14:44
    The view of Mr Khaner hinges a lot on the idea that the market will revert back in a relative short time to a 'secular bull market' with low growth, low interest rates and a supportive fed. If this is not the case, multiple contraction could seriously damage the future price of great stocks such as Nike. Nike has never been more expensive on a EV/EBIT, P/S and P/B basis and the drop in March did not help much. Since 2009, those multiples expanded 2.5 to 4.5 higher than the average of the decade before. This is what makes it difficult for me to invest in growth companies that look interesting from a valuation perspective during a dip. The perceived margin of safety of 20-30% might not materialize if the we end up in bear market or even just a market environment that is not as supportive for growth.
    • KJ
      Karl J.
      13 June 2020 @ 08:16
      Strongly agree. Shorter format and more timely info needed, not a waffly long interview.
  • JG
    Jonathan G.
    12 June 2020 @ 11:45
    Where is Roger? A Thursday without him is not a Thursday!
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      12 June 2020 @ 12:53
      A much needed vacation.
    • PC
      Peter C.
      12 June 2020 @ 13:10
      Good to hear he takes some time off to recharge. He has a lot of fans here so we hope to see him back in full swing soon!
    • JG
      Jonathan G.
      13 June 2020 @ 07:26
      And well deserved 😉
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    12 June 2020 @ 19:56
    What is this guy talking about? "Car sales are trending up!" With dozens of millions of people jobless we are going to see those car sales numbers!
  • KF
    Kenneth F.
    12 June 2020 @ 18:56
    NKE EV/EBITDA 24X P/S 3.54X (they is no competitor over 1.5X) Value stock? I'll take sketches SKX at P/S 0.92 (EV/EBITDA of 10X) X & buy puts on NKE (as a pair trade) allday long.
    • KF
      Kenneth F.
      12 June 2020 @ 19:08
      CVX in March traded down to 3X EV-to-EBITDA & NKE at +20X is a value stock? https://www.gurufocus.com/term/ev2ebitda/cvx/EV-to-EBITDA
  • PT
    Philippe T.
    12 June 2020 @ 10:25
    Would like more of a summary of the previous stay instead of even more of these interviews. I do enjoy the interviews and insights of people coming on but just not also on the daily briefing maybe..
    • PC
      Petros C.
      12 June 2020 @ 19:08
      I agree. And perhaps warn us of what lies ahead, next day of two. Nouriel Roubini & David Brown (Boom & Bust Signal) sent a warning about buying protection, one day before the big Dow drop...
  • PN
    Pierre N.
    12 June 2020 @ 18:28
    I am getting really tired hearing opinions without much reasoning and substantiation. Perhaps the Daily Briefing is not a suitable format for Lloyd Khaner to discuss his ideas... I find the previous format of the Daily Briefing to be much more informative and useful for my trading ideas. I hope RV will bring the old Daily Briefing back.
  • OO
    Oliver O.
    12 June 2020 @ 17:32
    Ed should have asked Lloyd why he thinks Warren Buffet continues to wait on the sidelines with record cash reserves. Hard to believe these guys can simply ignore 44 million jobless claims and think people will go back to buying several pairs of Nike shoes in a month.
  • LP
    Lauri P.
    12 June 2020 @ 15:53
    Now that RVDB is broadening the format to include bulls with cheap stock tips, how about inviting some Robinhood geniuses to pitch the dirt cheap stonks and how to pick the best bankrupt companies for quick $$$? Seriously though, the consensus bull narrative is represented well enough on CNBC and other mainstream media. Please bring the old format back, and if there isn't anything to discuss, maybe keep it at just the intro segment.
  • JS
    Juraj S.
    12 June 2020 @ 15:42
    He says he's a long term investor but sounds like he's willing to ride very short term market sentiments. Confused.
  • RK
    Roger K.
    12 June 2020 @ 08:47
    Nike/Puma, Illinois tool works: $ITW, Live Nation: $LYV, Extended Stay: $STAY
    • ZY
      ZHENG Y.
      12 June 2020 @ 14:12
      Thank you.
  • GH
    Gloria H.
    12 June 2020 @ 14:08
    Thanks, guys. Timing wasn’t great on this interview but I appreciated hearing his methodology and will keep in mind when the market seems more amenable to stock-picking.
  • DT
    David T.
    12 June 2020 @ 00:11
    Daily Briefing should be about daily events and should not repeat publicly and easily available information like pandemic levels. Daily briefing should be about what is not easily visible on the market or around the market. Lloyd Khaner interview is fine but, it can be posted separately.
    • SJ
      Sy J.
      12 June 2020 @ 02:58
      Real vision has jumped the shark. Too bad.
    • DS
      David S.
      12 June 2020 @ 06:36
      RVTV is trying to respond to comments. It is a tough call. I like the young tiger section with an analysis on a specific topic that is relevant to the daily markets. I like the give and take among the normal DB crew. It was suggested that they should have someone who is more bullish, and they have responded. Give them time and keep making suggestions. They certainly do their best to try to keep everyone happy. DLS
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      12 June 2020 @ 13:34
      They are trying to give insight, not just spew news facts. Pandemic infection rates / deaths are easily available, look up the John Hopkins heat map
  • IP
    IDA P.
    12 June 2020 @ 13:14
    If VIX is at 20, I think we can speak about a healthy pullback; yesterday VIX shot up to 40 and I see it going back up more short term
  • SF
    Stephen F.
    12 June 2020 @ 11:28
    I like this smart guy and hope RV has more interviews with real, stock-specific investors like him. It helps me learn about individual companies. It augments the many macro investors on RV.
  • GM
    Gary M.
    12 June 2020 @ 11:15
    Unfortunate timing, chaps. Clearly the original format would have been more useful over the past two days, but you weren’t to know. However, it does support the old dictum ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’.
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    12 June 2020 @ 09:41
    Prefer the briefings when they are done by the RVTV crew. I don't think they improve by widening to more diverse views. WE can get these in bags through the wide and varied content provided as part of the interview content.
  • GL
    Glen L.
    12 June 2020 @ 09:11
    Not really a fan of these daily briefings and the last 2 guests as these just feel to me like forcing yourself to bring on some bulls (probably at the worst possible time because of capitulation). Although I am in front of my screens all day I still enjoyed the Daily Briefing as a little end of day breather where we just get a quick summary of the main developments in the markets and the upcoming things to watch or take into account. I agree with many other's comments that these guests could very well be interviewed and put in different segments.
  • MJ
    Marius J.
    12 June 2020 @ 08:41
    Thanks tonbringing the bulls in, not sure I agree with them but good insight...
  • JV
    Jan V.
    12 June 2020 @ 05:57
    Guys, i really appreciate the amount of work you put in the DB. It's great to see flexibility/adaptability based on viewers requests (bring in the bullish view). However i have the same feeling as yesterday. RVDB is about an intelligent discussion (betweens bulls and bears) about important news/events of that day/week. Investment thesis/framework is for another show. No important events / no diverging views = no update briefing that day. Time is precious.
    • GC
      Gino C.
      12 June 2020 @ 06:02
      Agree. See my comment below.
    • JV
      Jan V.
      12 June 2020 @ 07:02
      Yes, good idea, limit the RVDB to what Peter and Nick have to say. An in depth analysis of certain topics could follow, but only if you can bring on subject matter experts (imo).
  • VS
    Ville S.
    12 June 2020 @ 06:45
    Regarding the intro: Egypt, another big country, is in deep trouble with Corona virus spreading everywhere. But their testing is limited and transparency has never been their thing...
  • JV
    Jonny V.
    12 June 2020 @ 06:30
    Ed did a good job of trying to get Lloyd to explain the thinking behind his views. Always nice with a mix of views but think this one would be better as a stand alone chat, or inserted on a slow day. Timing was obviously unfortunate, with a bull and more so diverting away from the normal format on a day with extra much to brief about and discuss. On days like this it would be great to circle back to previous disussions around likely scenarious, markers/indicators to watch etc, to determine if we are on the expected path, what the indicators say, what to expect and look for.
  • TS
    Tim S.
    12 June 2020 @ 04:21
    If this guy knew anything about liquidity, he wouldn't have ridden his "great companies" into the ides of march.
    • JH
      Jess H.
      12 June 2020 @ 06:22
      Potentially, the Ides of June are now upon us.
  • TT
    Tokyo T.
    12 June 2020 @ 06:05
    Thanks RV for trying to bring on more bulls to the daily briefing. The last 2 days might be an idea for a new show called "ideas". Quick to the point show and have Ed or others push back and challenging their investment cases in 30 minutes. DB is better when the days events are discussed and summarized. Just some feedback. Thanks for doing great work and I'll continue to tune in every morning (my time).
  • RP
    Ronald P.
    12 June 2020 @ 04:48
    This is not a daily briefing. I'm sure this guy would be a fine normal interview.
    • JC
      Juan C.
      12 June 2020 @ 05:49
      Funny I thought exactly the same
  • MC
    Michael C.
    11 June 2020 @ 22:55
    Interesting but I have some questions/issues. 1) Macro improving? what criteria is he using to judge that? Trannies and Utes blew up today and looks like SP500/DJ Transports/DJ Utilities will all end the week below 200 day MA. 2) What was his draw down in the March sell off? Just curious. 3) How will he know when his macro thesis is wrong? 4) 5% sell off to pick up "bargains" in this market is nothing...just saying 5) Recession is over? That startled me. Fastest ever but I guess it can be. 6) Liquidity, rates, and fundies. As Raoul has said, liquidity does not prevent insolvency. Cheap money doesn't mean there is demand for it; no velocity. Fundamentals I understand but it would be interesting whether he passes when there is no forward guidance or visibility even currently. Q2 will be a Waterloo for a bunch of companies IMO. 7) How does he decide to cut losses? Thanks Ed...always enjoy the RV banter...;)
    • MC
      Michael C.
      11 June 2020 @ 23:03
      addendum...when I do my little fish bottoms up analysis of stocks using Valueline, I don't find many undervalued (100% appreciation in 3-5 yrs) issues with bullet proof financials with any kind of upside momentum (I don't want to wait too long for the market to recognize it. ) which seems to confirm there's not much gas left in the tank at these levels.
    • mB
      marc B.
      12 June 2020 @ 05:28
      Interesting. A recession is two quarters of negative gdp. So q1 is -5 & q2 is -25 then q3 is 15? Does that equal out of recession? We are still under water. Guess it’s technical language. I could be wrong with comment too.
  • TK
    Tadej K.
    11 June 2020 @ 22:41
    Daily briefing becomes a stock picking show on a day that sees 5% dip on main indices and potentially turning point in dollar? Come on. You could have been stock picking show on march 24th or a week after that but now? Isn't there just a sea of questions (today!) on the macro and market structure fronts that we would like to see being discussed? This conversation could be in the "trade idea" section.
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      11 June 2020 @ 23:13
      Macro is slow moving. Nobody's macro view should've changed in just a day, especially with very little news. Just seems like a liquidity air pocket to me
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      12 June 2020 @ 00:38
      I liked this interview personally. But wouldn't have minded a bit more discussion on the pullback as it wasn't just the usual froth.
    • mB
      marc B.
      12 June 2020 @ 05:24
      This interview was probably pre planned but bigger discussion on the throw up would’ve of been great.
  • dm
    daniel m.
    11 June 2020 @ 23:48
    2 bullish guys in the last 2 RealTime shows... In day like these ones, I honestly prefer your own opinions, Raoul, Ed, Roger...
    • mB
      marc B.
      12 June 2020 @ 05:13
      Different perspectives are good tho. The solution lies somewhere in the middle? Kinda a like arguing with your wife?
  • DA
    David A.
    11 June 2020 @ 23:56
    Loved the interview and emboldened to follow the algo traders and hold shorts with VIX above 30 and rising. Example: Long NKE. Benjamin Graham never paid 36 times earnings for a stock. Secondly, what about supply chain risk, with 70% of Nike’s shoes sold in the US made in China? And this is a guy who claims to use macroeconomic backdrop analysis in his selection process. Ed (MBA from the school of Graham & Dodd) was far too kind, but very inciteful interview revealing an example of the latest episode of Extraordinary Popular Delusions of Grandeur and The Madness of Crowds. Had a great day and looking forward to many more.
    • mB
      marc B.
      12 June 2020 @ 05:12
      Maybe he sold but yeah this China manufacturing moving to US needs massive rv attention. Policy coming? Any free govt checks from the minuch?
  • js
    j s.
    12 June 2020 @ 00:02
    This guy is going to get his face ripped off. And I'm pretty bullish. But that's just stupid talk.
    • DT
      David T.
      12 June 2020 @ 00:13
      ANTIFA likes Nike but, for Free :) :)
    • mB
      marc B.
      12 June 2020 @ 05:10
      I love my Jordan’s but deflation environment can’t be good for consumer goods. Plus supply chains disruptions. Sounds like he knows Nike inside & out tho.
  • JA
    John A.
    12 June 2020 @ 00:17
    I think we have another leg lower, but I liked the idea of extended stay america if we really get true capitulation in these markets. Not now, but I may check that out if everyone becomes a pessimist (which imo hasn't happened yet).
    • mB
      marc B.
      12 June 2020 @ 05:07
      Also hospitals putting sick patients there. Motel 6 in LA has been used for homeless & quarantine. Crazy times! I do have to mention bullish sentiment is hard to physically see. I live in LA and people are still not back to normal. Riots, illness, no sports, boarded up shops. It’s a wild time.
  • CS
    Charles S.
    12 June 2020 @ 01:35
    Worthwhile to hear a bottom-up pov to try to arrive at broader Macro insight, but RV please keep this sort of segment as the exception -- IMO reviews of a PM's picks usually don't arrive at much macro insight, despite Ed's good questions, which got about as much insight as is possible in this format, but such exchanges, IMO, are not as interesting as more typical RV content (this viewer does not care if company X or Y is good or bad value & prefers the sorts of subjects tabled by Mike Green, Charlie McElligott, & Chris Cole)
    • mB
      marc B.
      12 June 2020 @ 05:02
      Ash & the db crew brings the heat every day. I agree this is more of interview or investing idea. The rvdb is a must watch daily.
  • TG
    Terry G.
    12 June 2020 @ 04:45
    Very good.
  • BC
    Burton C.
    12 June 2020 @ 04:43
    Very good interview Ed. Lloyd has a plan and is staying within his circle of competence. Good to see it. Personally I think we are in a bear market, it is far from over and I can't see how his investing proposition works out (Nike etc) But a well run interview, I don't understand why 50% thumbs down. I liked it and I disagree with his basic premise????
  • OC
    Otto C.
    12 June 2020 @ 02:02
    Thank you Ed for intelligently pushing back on obviously questionable strategy. I appreciate the macro analysis. However, more time is needed for a macro analysis so in 30 minutes macro analysis generate more questions than answers. I understand that economy will improve but to start allocating money now, specially for a fund manager, seem very premature. We all know that fundamentals do not work anymore and it's so obvious by the market action. The market lost 2wk of gains today and small caps wiped out almost 3wks. NKE wiped out 2wks, ITW wiped out 6wks, LYV wiped out 6wks. To me, the rally was just a bear market rally and the drop today was not corrective but impulsive.
    • mB
      marc B.
      12 June 2020 @ 04:38
      I think fundamentals still matter but multiples are getting wider due to debt. Fascinating how the fed pulls back liquidity and market sells off. Can we get liquidity updates especially in this environment.
  • AW
    Angela W.
    12 June 2020 @ 03:30
    Hi Ed, if there is a chance that Friday’s DB will be with Raoul can you please ask him where he is at with his strong dollar thesis? Does the current softening change his view or no?
    • mB
      marc B.
      12 June 2020 @ 04:32
      Spiked today. I’m interested in gold & silver miners melting down again like March.
    • TT
      Tokyo T.
      12 June 2020 @ 04:32
      He mentioned for now he is on the side re dollar on Twitter today.
  • mB
    marc B.
    12 June 2020 @ 04:28
    He went for the sectors that were rocked. And made great return. He didn’t mention tech. Maybe this next downturn tech will drop or the bubble continues? I think once q2 & forward guidance show rev drop. The stocks are trading at such high multiples. Great insight!
    • mB
      marc B.
      12 June 2020 @ 04:31
      Additionally can we get someone to talk about after the Japan crash and what it was like during the crash. Like quarter by quarter life and what if any sector went up or down. Also, can we do a deep dive on dot com bubble & gfi. Not all of us were trading. Darious mentioned puke moment, recovery, then diarrhea. I’m interested in this but very detailed.
  • TS
    Tim S.
    12 June 2020 @ 04:19
    People like this exist? I forgot
  • AP
    Alfonso P.
    12 June 2020 @ 03:59
    Daily briefing? realy.
  • SH
    Sahil H.
    12 June 2020 @ 03:21
    It was interesting hearing his perspective but I agree with many others, I much prefer you guys doing the daily briefings. You guys have an ability to capture what is going on the markets in a way that I don't see on many other platforms. This could be good as an additional shorter format talk. From what I'm hearing people that are bullish on the economy and markets seem to be under the impression that the coronavirus is no longer an issue. It's a bit of a funny juxtaposition hearing Peter discuss the threat of covid resurfacing (well never really going away) and then hearing Lloyd talk about being really bullish on the economy in the next 6-12 months in the same 30 minute video .
  • DM
    Don M.
    12 June 2020 @ 02:18
    Appreciate the effort but I can go anywhere to hear folks brag about what they supposedly picked or supposedly will. I'm hear to hear broader views - bullish and bearish. I can pick my own positions.
    • DB
      Douglas B.
      12 June 2020 @ 03:07
      You must be very proud of yourself
  • SW
    Suzanne W.
    12 June 2020 @ 02:51
    Lloyd Khaner was a great interview. So insightful. Thank you!
  • Am
    Alex m.
    12 June 2020 @ 01:41
    Great day to go bullish!
  • NF
    N. F.
    12 June 2020 @ 00:57
    The Daily Briefing should be about the day that just ended. It’s a great idea to bring in guests but if they’re just going to talk about themselves, that’s not the point of the show.
  • PB
    Paul B.
    12 June 2020 @ 00:31
    Lots of delusional Punters around like this Bloke with no idea about Macro
  • PG
    Parminder G.
    11 June 2020 @ 23:07
    Reminiscent of CNBC, just need some callers and sirens
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      11 June 2020 @ 23:19
      Really? RV smokes CNBC any day
    • PG
      Parminder G.
      11 June 2020 @ 23:23
      RV smokes it anyday which is why I was surprised
    • DT
      David T.
      11 June 2020 @ 23:59
      Jim Cramer will be next :) Buhaaa :))
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      12 June 2020 @ 00:29
      This isn't the case.
  • JC
    John C.
    12 June 2020 @ 00:28
    Peter - it would be beneficial if you could benchmark countries that have taken different public health response to COVID 19. For example, compare US vs Sweden on a per 1000 deaths in conjunction with the decline in GDP in % terms. The way you preset the information does not help people make informed decisions about alternative courses of action and the consequences of the choices. Thank you.
  • jg
    jesse g.
    12 June 2020 @ 00:03
    I liked the $DXY move today. i thought it was overlooked. Thanks for the info Peter, Ed, and Lloyd!
  • DR
    Danilo R.
    11 June 2020 @ 23:47
    Hmm, liquidity drove the bounce. The job loss recovery is pretty much out of the consumers hands. It’s all about the Covid politics. Talk about irony, RV gets bulls when the market corrects and the Trump scorecards of stock market peak was caused by the hoodies with Helicopter Monopoly money from Uncle Bernie.
  • GC
    Gino C.
    11 June 2020 @ 23:44
    Peter, excellent work as always!! Honestly I think these daily briefings should just be Peter and or Nick giving is the important data of the day and the headlines that matter. The other interviews that are part of this briefing have just gotten a bit off track and seem really auto place now. Those interviews can just be inserted into RV each day outside of the daily briefing. The daily briefing started off as a great idea but I just got in a really weird direction. But again, Peter, Nick, and others keep the excellent data and headlines coming in the context of the daily briefing. Many thanks!
  • AA
    Aymman A.
    11 June 2020 @ 23:28
    Today I would have preferred to listen to a macro person. Not a bottom up person.
  • SD
    Scott D.
    11 June 2020 @ 23:27
    50% on Nike? good luck with that. Ed didnt seem convinced either.
  • DS
    David S.
    11 June 2020 @ 23:20
    Well done. Mr. Khaner is the type of investor that I would like to be for 25% of my portfolio. Fundamentals allow him to be to patient in up markets and buy in down markets. I liked that Mr. Khaner was able to discuss individual stocks he likes in the one to three-year timeframe. I think the virus will have its way with the economy for a while. The economy will get better when we have better treatments and/or a vaccine. The market is completely unpredictable. If the stock market declines his stocks may hit the right level to buy again. Thanks. DLS
  • JK
    Jeff K.
    11 June 2020 @ 23:20
    Hedgeye has Illinois Tool Works as a best idea short. Ed interviewed Double D yesterday, and he sounded more rational to me. I may be partial as a member of Hedgeye.
  • AN
    Andrew N.
    11 June 2020 @ 22:20
    LOL stonks hahahahahahaha
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      11 June 2020 @ 23:08
      Special request: Ash and Ed please do a RVDB episode where you have to say stonks instead of stocks and keep a straight face haha
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    11 June 2020 @ 23:05
    Interesting perspective. Thanks for bringing Lloyd on. RV focuses more on macro, nice to get a little bottom up perspective in. Timing is comical to get a bull in 😂 He's probably super busy, but would be cool to get Carson Block in to talk about what he's seeing / thinking nowadays. He brings a interesting bottom up shorting perspective.
  • MT
    Mark T.
    11 June 2020 @ 22:37
    Sounded to me like he said he thinks things are going to open up faster/recover faster than people think but also said the the Extended Stay hotels will do well because people will be hesitant to go out/go to restaurants. Maybe it's a hedge, but sounded to me like a contradiction in his theory.
    • DS
      David S.
      11 June 2020 @ 23:03
      Both can happen. DLS
  • SN
    Shmuel N.
    11 June 2020 @ 22:56
    lol, soon as you let the bull talk yesterday the market crash, hahahaha