Daily Briefing – June 12, 2020

Published on
June 12th, 2020
Duration
35 minutes


Daily Briefing – June 12, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ed Harrison, and Raoul Pal

Published on: June 12th, 2020 • Duration: 35 minutes

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal and Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison discuss today's undulating recovery as global equities tried to regain ground lost in yesterday's market rout. Raoul and Ed explore why today's snapback wasn’t as strong as expected and Raoul places this discussion within the context of his "unfolding" thesis. In the intro Jack Farley discusses the VIX and a daring attempt by Hertz bondholders to take advantage of the moment.

Comments

Transcript

  • MH
    Malcolm H.
    15 June 2020 @ 20:42
    Audio?
  • VL
    Victor L.
    15 June 2020 @ 16:14
    transcript?
  • MT
    Mike T.
    14 June 2020 @ 09:25
    interesting to note, how many folks, including Ed himself found value in Jack's market update, but Jack missed the most significant thing to note, which is a fact rather than an opinion, VIX futures ( /VX) are once again in Backwardation not by much, but it's there and should be watched carefully when Futures open on Sunday at 5pm Central.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      14 June 2020 @ 15:59
      Very interesting, thanks for sharing. Backwardation of VIX futures makes sense as in his note McElligott showed a back-test that the returns of the VIX were strongly negative after a massive spike in the VIX (>99.9% percentile move). We'll have our eye on this going forward.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      15 June 2020 @ 10:50
      Jack, I think we may see the world differently. When VIX futures move from contango to Backwardation that is a red flag for equities. One other thing, anyone wanting to 'trade' volatility to the upside with an ETF e.g. VXX ( which tracks VIX futures) now is a good time to do it as the movement in VXX will be helped by Backwardation when the folks that run VXX roll out the futures to next cycle i.e. replacing a front month futures with a cheaper further out contract. When VIX futures are in contango the performance of VXX is hindered by the rolling process of closing a cheaper front month and replacing with a more expensive back month.
  • GN
    Gerald N.
    15 June 2020 @ 00:24
    To Ed and Raoul Could you do a piece on the recent Beijing Coronavirus outbreak at a major market? I read that the virus was not present in Beijing for 56 days and showed up with suspicions that it came in via the frozen food/meat products. If so what are the implications for supply chains if such suspicions are true and how will that affect markets especially in the supply chain side. 1. Are we looking at price inflation with new checks for the virus for consumers 2. If costs are passed on to the consumer what that means ? 3. Will the higher costs cause more social unrest and push the market further and anything else you think would affect your framework of the hope, insolvency phase. Thank you
    • CA
      Chad A.
      15 June 2020 @ 04:41
      I love these DB's. Top notch stuff from the crew. ED is just destroying it. I look forward to his take on damn near anything. Jack, please look into an interview or something with Seth Golden. He's the former "target manager" infamous for shorting vol. People talk shit on him but the guy is crazy smart and I'll bet the 2 of you could have an incredible VOL discussion (of course I would only understand about 1/3 rd of it but that's beside the point). His is a view that differs from the general bearish view of most of the crew on Real Vision. I think he's a voice that RV needs to hear. Thanks again guys, really great discussions!
  • SS
    Sam S.
    13 June 2020 @ 18:57
    Others have written the following which is not in support of Neil F., or Imperial College: One of the people who has assisted in this panic over the coronavirus has been Neil Ferguson, who led the @imperialcollege authors who warned of 500,000 deaths and 2.2 million people would be infected from the coronavirus. Now, low and behold, Ferguson has himself tested positive for the virus and has suddenly announced a change of view. Ferguson has been a major contributing factor in causing the world economy to collapse. He has advocated locking down the economy which has been behind the movement around the world. Ferguson’s model is highly questionable for it was obviously based on human assumptions that were WRONG! Just so everyone has some idea, the original program used by Ferguson was “a single 15,000 line file that had been worked on for a decade” and by no means is this remotely sophisticated. I seriously doubt that Imperial College will want to go public with the code because it is that bad. To put this in some perspective, just the core to conduct basic analysis about 150,000 lines of code. It is so complicated, it takes a tremendous amount of concentration to try to see the paths it has available to it for basic analysis. There is no valid test to warrant any funding of Imperial College for providing ANY forecast based upon this model. This is the most UNPROFESSIONAL operation perhaps in computer science. The entire team should be disbanded and an independent team put in place to review the world of Neil Ferguson and he should NOT be allowed to oversee any review of this model. Oxford University, apparently has debunked Imperial College flawed model that started with guess work. Above my pay grade and certainly gets the gray cells working overtime.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      14 June 2020 @ 18:00
      The reference in our video is to financial historian Niall Ferguson, not epidemiologist Neil Ferguson.
    • SS
      Sam S.
      14 June 2020 @ 18:43
      Guess I connected dots in reference to Imperial College and Neil Ferguson. I did ask if any knows the facts in these matters, but I do respectfully appreciate the clarifications.
  • IP
    IDA P.
    14 June 2020 @ 13:12
    Ed you moved the plant ..... after months....
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      14 June 2020 @ 17:54
      Very observant!
  • IP
    IDA P.
    14 June 2020 @ 15:06
    to Ed & Raoul - I was wondering: isn't the fact that the money supply (M2) is exploding in both the US and the Eurozone important for inflation expections? M2 pretty much anticipates money velocity which anticipates inflation. Of course you could certainly have defaults and inflation = stagflation. It's just hard for me to stay with the deflationary view when I see M2 skyrocketing after years. Please answer in the next daily if you can. Ed, if you move the plant back I'll take it as a sign that you agree. : )
  • NJ
    Nimitt J.
    14 June 2020 @ 12:38
    The entire global supply chain is also changing... eg in context https://www.cnbctv18.com/economy/vietnam-eu-fta-will-impact-india-say-exporters-and-trade-experts-6110981.htm
  • RH
    Roger H.
    14 June 2020 @ 11:27
    Great to hear that you finally have an inverview with Lyn Alden coming! Her understanding of what happened in the repo market last year seems reasonable, i.e. not enough lenders. It might mean that FED will have to monetize deficits into "eternity" from here or until something breaks in a big way.
  • PC
    Petros C.
    13 June 2020 @ 08:54
    Why are the audio & transcript files missing please?
    • MG
      Marcus G.
      14 June 2020 @ 10:24
      I also very often use the audiofile or the transcript. I woul be helpful (to me) to have them.
  • WA
    Wissam A.
    13 June 2020 @ 07:09
    Ed, Ash, and Raoul can you please bring Nassim Taleb for an interview. He is one of the most important thinkers of our time and it is a shame that RV hasn't interviewed him yet. I have sent an email to experts@realvision twice asking for such an interview. Mike Green contacted Nassim via twitter but got blocked for some reason. Perhaps speaking to his representative, or his secretary at NYU, or one of the NYU alumni, or if someone knows Mark Spitznagel might do the trick in bringing him to RV. People have this perception that he is an asshole but he is actually quite a nice guy. He's just one of those types who can't stand stupidity and hence his attitude. Also another notable thinker that should brought to RV is Ray Dalio. Ray for the past two months has written 4 important essays published on LinkedIn where he chronicles the big debt cycles for the past 500 years and how all this ends inevitably. Please guys do your best to bring these two gentlemen in. RV has extensive networks so I'm sure they can pull this off with effort. Cheers.
    • AB
      Ameet B.
      13 June 2020 @ 08:03
      I concur about Ray Dalio. Those articles on LinkedIn are incredible.
    • JB
      Jacob B.
      14 June 2020 @ 01:10
      agreed!
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      14 June 2020 @ 03:09
      Yes!! I'd love to see a 2 hour interview between Ray Dalio and Raoul.
  • DB
    David B.
    13 June 2020 @ 12:02
    Best mini update from Jack. Nailed it in 30 seconds vs the front page of ft
    • DS
      David S.
      14 June 2020 @ 02:33
      Caveat Emptor. The market is crazy when the bond holders of a bankrupt company can issue equity to help pay off creditors. This ranks with negative oil prices. If the market crashes, there will at least be humorous stories to tell. You nailed it Mr. Farley. The Vol of Vol was icing on the cake. DLS
  • SS
    Sam S.
    13 June 2020 @ 19:02
    N Ferguson apparently removed or left Imperial College under questionable concerns regarding behavior? Lots of discussions regarding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation funding and promoting these things. Anyone know these answers?
    • DS
      David S.
      14 June 2020 @ 01:50
      Just to clarify this Professor Neil Morris Ferguson above is a different person from Professor Niall Campbell Ferguson who was interviewed on RVTV. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      14 June 2020 @ 02:03
      Professor Neil Morris Ferguson resigned from his advisory post to the UK government after his girlfriend visited in his home during lockdown. This lack of social distancing was seen as undermining the government lockdown. I do not see where Professor Neil Ferguson has resigned as a faculty member of the Imperial College of London. Facts are important. If I am wrong, please correct. DLS
  • RM
    Russell M.
    13 June 2020 @ 22:56
    Here is a potential game changer for Covid 19, a drug about to complete its placebo controlled trial that will allow the end of social distancing. https://www.beckman.com/resources/videos/symposiums/covid-symposium-day-3-session-3-bruce-patterson?_ga=2.60733997.1296490813.1591885724-1997124573.1591885724
  • MD
    Matt D.
    13 June 2020 @ 22:49
    Great insights Ed on Crypto and Central Banks - govts. I like how Jack upped the ante by going into options/gamma hedging too. To me it says a lot how Raoul respectfully shared a few details of some private knowledge he learnt - knowledge perhaps inaccessible to many/most viewers/members. Thanks Raoul!
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    13 June 2020 @ 20:15
    Well done Ed good points enjoy your cycle
  • DS
    David S.
    13 June 2020 @ 18:50
    Comment from Ferguson Interview: Remember the equation for monetary “theory” and its meaning is: MV=PQ (M - the amount of Money in circulation) times (V - the number of times a dollar is spent per year on Real Final Goods) = (P -the price level)(Q – the quantity of Real Good sold. - PQ is just Nominal GDP.) Notice all of this has to do with dollars in the REAL ECONOMY, not in Wall Street. To the extent that tax reductions, stimulus checks, Fed QE goes into Wall Street, the inflation is in the Wall Street - follow the money. To the extent that delayed rents and mortgage payments, SBA loans, etc. were invested in the stock market, there will be no GDP effects either. (There will be more bankruptcy effects if the market falls before they pull their money out.) This was probably the plan anyway – Washington lobbyist and wealthy donors. It seems to be a recurring theme to bolster the stock market and asset prices. It is, of course, a Sirens Song for reelection for all incumbents on both sides of the aisle. The stock market has reacted to the vast increase in money flows. The market must still pass the Clashing Rocks and choose between Scylla and Charybdis – valuations and Coronavirus effects- like Odysseus in full blown PTSD from the Trojan War only one man left standing – Odysseus. (Too many references to the Odyssey, but it works for me.) DLS
  • ES
    Edward S.
    13 June 2020 @ 10:26
    I'm new to macro investing and am now totally addicted to RV! I have come from an FX day/swing trading background. Can anybody recommend any resources that would help me get into macro? Listening to Raoul and Ed etc it all seems so logical and undetstandable but I am nowhere near being able to turn this into actionable investment decisions. I don't know what time frames to use or what stops/targets to use etc. Any help from members would be massively appreciated! Thanks a lot Ed
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      13 June 2020 @ 12:15
      I'm in a similar boat but having come from a Crypto day/swing trading background. I'm sure there are plenty of people more experienced than I am in this area but I'll share my 2 cents on this from my experience in the last couple months as a subscriber. If you're a pro subscriber you get some really good quality trade ideas including SL and targets to aim for. But outside of that. I use the info I get from here (amongst other sources) as a way to decide what I do with my longer term investments. I only actively trade with about 15-20% of my net worth. The rest I diversify into investments that I'm long term bullish on. I use RV as a source of understanding what is going in the macro environment and how I should be thinking on a longer time frame with the rest of my portfolio i.e. 12-18 months MINIMUM. If I get a lot of confluence between the interviewers on RV and other sources I get info from then I usually use that as a signal to stick with a position. Typically for those types of positions I won't have SL set (primarily because I'm not trading those positions with leverage) and I'll stick with them over a longer T even if I end up being down massive %s in the middle of them playing out.
    • ES
      Edward S.
      13 June 2020 @ 18:50
      Thanks a lot Sahil, that's really helpful!
  • MR
    Michael R.
    13 June 2020 @ 16:59
    Awesome news to hear Lyn Alden coming on to RV!!!!
  • MR
    Michael R.
    13 June 2020 @ 16:42
    Portnoy is gonna get smoked as the market evolves :D
  • CW
    Claude W.
    12 June 2020 @ 23:34
    Great back and forth between Raoul and Ed. Should see more of this. Ed's German pronounciation as always class act!
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      13 June 2020 @ 01:45
      That is because Ed speaks six languages and reads another five.....
    • MC
      Michael C.
      13 June 2020 @ 15:14
      Watched it last night while having a whiskey sour...gotta watch it again sober...lol
    • se
      steve e.
      13 June 2020 @ 16:15
      Ed would do well to be more succinct in what he says.
  • CT
    Chris T.
    13 June 2020 @ 10:25
    Why are you publishing these on YouTube as well? Makes me question why I would pay for the membership if its freely available on YouTube?
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      13 June 2020 @ 11:00
      RV is about democratizing finance. But, we still have to generate revenue. And so, not every video goes to YouTube. The difference is you get MUCH more content on the RV website. It’s night and day.
    • AD
      Antonio D.
      13 June 2020 @ 11:55
      The Daily Briefing is about the market action today. The other interview content with macro thinkers which could be more valuable to your macro thesis is still paywalled.
    • WS
      Will S.
      13 June 2020 @ 14:16
      I actually agree with Chris here, I get no value being a basic member, and the only thing that really provide a bit of value is the Pro version. Honestly, I think that you guys should make Pro and Basic the same. I honestly feel cheated by real vision. We do not make a lot of money like some of the people on real vision do, but to buy a subscription so expensive that your team trying so hard to put on YouTube.... that’s cheating us.
  • JI
    Jose I.
    13 June 2020 @ 11:54
    Excellent RVDB! Well done guys! IMHO, given the high uncertainty, it is key to seek to have a robust, well-reasoned framework and continuously iterate it to update / fine tune it. This conversation totally goes in this direction. Perfect! A comment: I would not take for granted that liquidity is going to be reduced in the next months as Gov issuance increases because the CBs can always expand further. Also I would not assume that stimulus will end all of a sudden when the current programs finish. Obviously, it will be different in each country, but I am inclined to think that these programs will be extended further (probably politicians have no alternative). If so, we might not approach a cliff for the moment and the current dynamic continue a bit longer. What do you think?
    • PC
      Paul C.
      13 June 2020 @ 13:52
      I agree with the sentiment. Back a politician into a corner, who knows what he/she is capable of.
  • TM
    Thomas M.
    13 June 2020 @ 12:30
    Great Job! Enjoyed this various discussions and analysis you both gave. Seems like we had a blow off top in the US equity markets once we got hit with the realities that a second wave of the virus infection is real and the reopening of various states businesses will have limits to the economic recovery. The pandemic changed spending behaviors, we had a hit to many peoples income, layoffs continue (loss of income) and (contribution to 401K - I missed that point and Raoul provided some good insight on that for me) , extended unemployment benefits ending with no call for extension at the moment. This has caused a slow down in business activity ( but has improved for now but continues to be weak) and as of Wednesday the markets seemed to finally become concerned once again . Vol of Vol has also increased and something to watch that the market is getting nervous and has been moving higher. Europe has many of the same issues and some that are unique to them - so weak signs all around. Been watching for a sign that the dollar is strengthening. Still believe in that thesis as well. Took risk off this week in the equity markets and working on getting into a defensive posture once again slowly. Gold on pullback over time ( no rush - slow buying to get a good averge price over time has been the paln) seems to be smart as Chair Jerome Powell will keep printing as stated. Trying to wrap my head around bitcoin- still can't pull the trigger. Been reading a ton on it but boy am I having a hard time with this one. Tons of questions but hard to pull this donkey over the line to pull the trigger. Starting to feel old when I can't get comfortable with new things -lol. I only did two transactions in bitcoin to learn how to use it. Holding it as an investment in a digital wallet, not insured, can be stolen, nothing backing it (not even a military as Mike Green pointed out), can be regulated heavily by governments, the price for these digits is $9400. - the list goes on. I get it- we are going digital but which one and which ones will the governments allow us to use without penalties and restrictions- how are they going to be secured, I have no clue. Any thoughts on reading material would be helpful to get comfortable with this as an investment. I am big on blockchain just having mental issues and understanding bitcoin as an investment. I do agree in acts well. Again, great job gentleman. You both gave us a lot to think about here in the US and abroad. Reinforced some decisions and made me think on others. Time to enjoy the weekend and get ready for some more adventure next week. Got to keep looking past the fog and uncertainties. Don't like to over complicate decisions by being influnced by others opinions, but this was great insight and dialog from both of you. made us all think. Much thanks. Health and hapiness to all.
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      13 June 2020 @ 13:37
      Dude you're already half way there if you're thinking about the value of bitcoin in that way! A couple of counterpoints with your concern with Bitcoin: 1. Yes it can be stolen but if you have good Opsec (get a hardware wallet, use secure passwords to manage your accounts using diceware to generate passwords) and don't let yourself get scammed you won't really have to worry about that. If you haven't fallen for get rich quick schemes your life you're probably ok its not as hard as what you might hear from people that have been really fucking dumb with this stuff. 2. If you buy gold ETFs on an exchange, is that insured? If you're really worried about insurance use a 3rd party organisation like SWP to store hardware wallets for you. Not sure how they work with that process because I manage my own Crypto wallets myself but I'm sure it can be done in s similar way to gold. I use SWP to store my own gold and would highly rate them, so does Raoul. If you trust yourself enough to manage your own wealth you should be able to trust yourself to manage your own private keys and hardware wallets. 3 & 4. I think both these points can be addressed in one go. The best thing about bitcoin is that it is not controlled by governments. Governments can't control it even if they wanted to. If the US banned mining bitcoin, or China did. It doesn't stop people from doing it and literally hasn't. There are plenty of examples where countries tried placing restrictions/banning trade of crypto assets but bitcoin has survived all of those challenges. The best thing about bitcoin is that it no one can stop it. If we can go through the March drop of 60% of Bitcoins value with in a couple of hours and price can recover to $9.4K with no circuit breakers, without the fed injecting liquidity into the market then nothing can stop it. If you have heard about the term anti-fragile, it perfectly describes what bitcoin is. You don't need an army to back the bitcoin. You just need enough people to see bitcoin as a play for those of us that don't have 100% faith in governments around world to always steer us into the post possible future we can have. The people that back the value of bitcoin and believe in it, see it as a way to hedge against the current financial/government institutions. If you want to see the power of people that don't agree with current institutions (though many of them aren't believers in bitcoin yet), look at what is happening with the BLM riots/protests. Think about it, this is a time when the US government (amongst other governments in the world) have given out the most amount of stimulus that we have EVER seen. What do you think is going to happen when governments start taking away that money and people start suffering? This is a hugely bullish case for BTC in my opinions. 5. I agree. Bitcoin price has been really going wild. Depending on your age/investment cycle bitcoin is a bit expensive for now. We've had about a 160% rally with no real pull back. We're well overdue for one and we're bumping up against some long term technical resistance. If you're willing to get some exposure I would recommend DCA'ing into some of your position now but if we breakdown to 7.1K to 6K I would consider that as a solid entry. I've got a pile of cash sitting on the sidelines waiting for these areas to hit to deploy my capital For your reference, I'm seeing BTC hit $100K before 2022 and I'm risk adjusting my trading accordingly. I'm more than happy to help you answer any questions you may have regarding bitcoin and crypto :)
  • SH
    Sahil H.
    13 June 2020 @ 12:32
    Just giving my thoughts from an Australian perspective: I think the Australian government banked on 1 giant bazooka of stimulus and are not prepared to continue shaking the money tree to give everyone the same amount of money moving forward. A clear example is the ~AU$600M home builder grant. It's all for show, most people won't be able to use it. You need an annual income of $120K (for individuals) - $200K (for households) to get $25K for a $150K renovation or to build a new home. I'm pretty certain you can't use the money to build an investment property, build a pool, a garage, a granny flat in your property. So almost no one that meets that income requirement will end up taking an advance on their mortgage to actually do a renovation or build a new home. Not to mention our PM said that no matter what happens we won't go into another lock down again. He is also putting pressure on states to open up their borders again, threatening them that if they don't he won't let international students to enter their states. For those of you that are not familiar with the Australian economy, our University system pretty much runs on international students attending. in 2018, International students spent $8.83B in fees (up from $3.7B in 2008). See this article for more details https://bit.ly/37vhTiv.
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      13 June 2020 @ 12:57
      also the AUD has gone an absolute tear since the lows in the last couple months up almost up 30% since its bottom (in comparison EURUSD peaked at 7% and GBPUSD peaked at 6%, USDCAD peaked at 10% over the same time perio, even EM currencies like the rand only recovered 20% over that period ). If you're interested in playing the next move I would watch the AUDUSD pair (especially if you're bullish USD like I am). I think we're going to get a good pay day soon.
  • OC
    Otto C.
    13 June 2020 @ 03:01
    Wow, this was a rapid pace fountain of insight and knowledge...I had to watch it twice to make sure that I didn't miss anything!!! Keep pouring that magical potions....
    • AD
      Antonio D.
      13 June 2020 @ 12:02
      Any aspects you liked in particular? I would enjoy hearing what sparked your interest the second time you listened.
  • AB
    Alastair B.
    13 June 2020 @ 06:09
    The takeaway from the Niall Ferguson interview for me was the role of war in stimulating inflation. A Democrat victory in the November elections will lead to the USA looking to reverse it’s perceived withdrawal from IGOs and hegemonic posturing under the Trump administration. There will be war in this situation - perhaps Iran, perhaps Venezuela. War combined with UBI creates a significant inflationary risk - and central bank digital currencies at the same time will be stimulating the velocity of money. I hope I am wrong, but my inflation hedges are already in place.
    • AD
      Antonio D.
      13 June 2020 @ 11:59
      I've been following RV since mid 2019 and have positioned into the land, gold, bitcoin portfolio - do you have any other inflation hedges?
  • Dv
    Daniel v.
    13 June 2020 @ 11:37
    The more I hear Ed talk. the more I appreciate his views. He is spot on with what he said regarding german (retail) companies. Great discussion!
    • AD
      Antonio D.
      13 June 2020 @ 11:55
      Indeed Ed H. is well versed in Western European news.
  • CR
    Casey R.
    13 June 2020 @ 11:54
    Please can you advise what has happened to the subtitles option in the last few videos, I find it really helps me when watching the videos? Thanks
  • AB
    Ameet B.
    13 June 2020 @ 07:59
    Excellent! More of Ed and Raoul together please - wonderful conversation.
    • AB
      Ameet B.
      13 June 2020 @ 08:01
      Ash and Roger is also a nice dynamic
    • BC
      Brente C.
      13 June 2020 @ 10:57
      This was one of the absolute best daily briefings.
  • Cd
    Christiano d.
    13 June 2020 @ 08:17
    I think Ed is totally right about Germans. I live in Munich and I have no idea how low/medium income workers can survive in this city. My estimates is that rent is taking more than 50% of low income workers. I know two girls from work that have the full time job and a mini job as waiters. For anyone who doesn't pay rent the difference in the spending power is tremendous. Really easy to save 50k euros or less, get a loan and buy a second, third house. I don't have the exact numbers but looks like house ownership in Germany is a lot lower than Italy and Spain. If we also suffer from this solvency wave that might come ppl won't be happy. Add to that what might happen if the banks go bankrupt and Germans feel effects of currency devaluation. Ppl will be really really angry. I think authorities want to create a union and avoid conflicts, but once these issues start to unfold and inequality rate increases they will get division and populism.
    • Cd
      Christiano d.
      13 June 2020 @ 08:18
      Waitress*
    • BC
      Brente C.
      13 June 2020 @ 10:56
      The ratio of shelter costs to real median incomes is the growing elephant in the room that can not be eliminated by smoothed out statistics, more public debt, or money supply expansion. These policy prescriptions drive the type of imbalances ultimately responsible for unrest.
  • TK
    Tom K.
    13 June 2020 @ 09:59
    The Ed / Raoul discussion on Friday's is one of my week's RV highlights. Such thoughtful and fun discussions. Thanks to both of you!
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    13 June 2020 @ 09:37
    Excellent update. This is the Daily Brief I want to see. No disrespect to Jay and Lloyd but they cannot compete with the quality of the in house analysis on what is happening now.
  • SW
    Stephen W.
    13 June 2020 @ 09:13
    You should get Stephanie Kelton on to talk about MMT, just released an MMT 101 called 'The Deficit Myth'. Garlic to Austrians but might be worth a chat, she basically thinks its great for Bitcoin too but not for the reasons you might think.
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    13 June 2020 @ 01:02
    Risk RV is not considering? Downside to gold due to EM financial issues. Don't understand why people only talk about inflation vs deflation with gold, and not supply vs demand. And with gold miners, no discussion of political instability and risk of mine nationalization! Most of jr miners are in risky 3rd world c I'm prob the only one short jr gold miners on RV 😅 Def not the only dollar bull
    • JD
      Jesse D.
      13 June 2020 @ 03:15
      It’s a risk but not probable. I think less supply would be also be bullish for gold. I can see nations taxing more profits from gold miners, but the companies themselves have a lot of IP so it’s hard to see them getting pushed out.
    • JE
      Jonathan E.
      13 June 2020 @ 06:53
      Like Canada and Australia
    • JV
      Jan V.
      13 June 2020 @ 09:11
      Thomas Kaplan made this point very clear in his dec 2019 interview. Resource nationalization is a cyclical practice in a rising commodity price environment.
  • SH
    Si H.
    13 June 2020 @ 08:37
    Really enjoyed this one.
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    13 June 2020 @ 07:49
    Regarding china. You forget they need to import food. Therefor Raul i correct with china will hit hyperinflation.
  • JK
    Jens K.
    13 June 2020 @ 07:33
    Ed, great interviews this week. Nice with new perspectives.
  • PC
    Peter C.
    13 June 2020 @ 07:07
    These Friday wrap ups with Raoul & Ed are my favorites of the Dailys. Two pros, in-tuned, & sharing useful insights. I also enjoy the youngsters like Jack; they are the true daily a la CBNC / Bloomberg but better:)
  • RD
    Reginald D.
    13 June 2020 @ 06:28
    Incredible interview guys, keep up the great work.
  • JF
    Joseph F.
    13 June 2020 @ 06:20
    Ed! So fantastic as usual. Really enjoyed this entire week.
  • BA
    Bob A.
    13 June 2020 @ 05:31
    I really enjoy the daily macro discussions from Ash, Roger and Ed. This also highlights the depth of your bench. Having Raoul join on Friday is the icing on the cake. Thanks to your entire team. I also really appreciate your updates and your extensive interviews available during the week. You are doing a tremendous job!
  • DD
    Daniel D.
    13 June 2020 @ 04:18
    Couple of absolute bros. Ed always knows everything about everything. Like he just pulls out facts in every video he's ever in. And Raoul brings up these massive bombs that nobody else is noticing. Great content.
  • DC
    David C.
    13 June 2020 @ 04:02
    Would be great if RV can bring Richard Werner back for another episode to explain on the impact on FX exchange rate as a result of Central Bank's money printing / socialising of debts.
  • JD
    Jesse D.
    13 June 2020 @ 03:12
    Much better, we can find stock picks anywhere so the macro conversations are much more interesting for the daily briefings.
  • kg
    kyle g.
    13 June 2020 @ 02:57
    Wow good shit. Probably best daily briefing I’ve seen in 3 months. With Ed building his view on his quantitative basis and Raoul on his years of qualitative feeling... makes for a great wholistic conversation. Thanks guys, enjoy the weekend.
  • RL
    Ross L.
    13 June 2020 @ 02:53
    Check out a story about CLOs in The Atlantic by Frank Partnoy "The Looming Bank Collapse."
  • ZY
    ZHENG Y.
    13 June 2020 @ 02:18
    The video quality difference is huge...Raul is super clear, and the eye sight is lower now (before that Raul always look upward from video). Good job Real Vision~
  • BG
    Brian G.
    13 June 2020 @ 02:14
    Another great conversation by two brilliant minds!
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    13 June 2020 @ 01:39
    Thanks gents. Good weekend
  • DB
    David B.
    13 June 2020 @ 01:34
    Would look forward to a closer look at the alarm being sounded over CLOs
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    13 June 2020 @ 01:20
    It would be nice to see some content about those other risks not too many talking about. Like the mentioned CLOs!
  • ab
    artem b.
    13 June 2020 @ 01:12
    What did you do with Download button????? Please add it back!
  • RD
    Richard D.
    13 June 2020 @ 01:07
    Please add audio link as I need to download. Great stuff. THanks
  • NM
    Nicholas M.
    13 June 2020 @ 01:02
    Brilliant Guys, cutting edge analysis with reality and humanity, love it! Love to see more on the $ and what happens if we keep printing and absorbing emerging market debt, it seems inevitable to me..
  • CC
    Carl C.
    13 June 2020 @ 01:01
    Can we please have the audio link to download?
  • dd
    david d.
    13 June 2020 @ 00:55
    raoul has a nice new camera
  • RB
    Roger B.
    12 June 2020 @ 23:27
    As the infection rates swing higher, we might not see government mandated lock-downs, but not to be dismissed is a population exercising voluntary "lock-downs." Voluntary de-socialization, while not as draconian, could still have material adverse economic consequences.
    • AN
      Andrew N.
      12 June 2020 @ 23:33
      You nailed it. In fact, the economic pull back in the US started even before the enforced lockdowns, and Sweden has suffered economically without a lockdown.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      13 June 2020 @ 00:36
      Yup, my family haven’t set foot in a shop or other commercial establishment since Feb 4th.
  • TS
    Tamim S.
    12 June 2020 @ 23:41
    When Raoul said that there is a 60% chance that the top is in, was he talking about the February top (3400 S&P500) or the recent June top? (3230 S&P500)
    • GF
      Gordon F.
      13 June 2020 @ 00:33
      The DOW and the S&P came close to the February highs, while the NASDAQ hit new highs. I am looking at them right now as rough double tops, assuming the recent June top holds. If the June top in the S&P is broken, I would watch closely the February top, but regardless, it is time to be purchasing out-of-the-money puts or other forms of downside protection, IMHO. The historians say that every market top comes with a buying mania, and while the recent mania wasn't typical of previous ones, it seems to me clear that the last two months or so have been in a mania phase. Might it go yet higher? It's certainly possible from here, but I already have some downside insurance in my account, and may be adding more.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    13 June 2020 @ 00:32
    Watching a laid back family of kangaroos chilling in the grass outside my window whilst listening to this. All resting on one elbow in the Winter sun... Raoul’s right. The markets aren’t everything.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    13 June 2020 @ 00:28
    Fantastic stuff!!! Thank you guys!!!
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    13 June 2020 @ 00:28
    When you guys talk about data it would be really great to see that data and charts what you talk about! I know it's a bit more work but I think it would be really add to the channel's nivo! Thank You!
  • AN
    Andrew N.
    12 June 2020 @ 23:00
    Ok, we really need to hash out the most important issue of the day: No way Dan Portnoy is for real. His Twitter bio doesn't just say "I'm not a financial advisor", the minimal warning, it also says "Don't listen to anything I say about stocks". Who would put that if they were being serious?? Also he's got another video were he's floating around in his pool at his Florida mansion and complaining that the water fixtures are watering on him. Hahaha I mean, come on! :-)
    • AD
      Antonio D.
      12 June 2020 @ 23:14
      But Dan Portnoy (@stollpresidente) is refreshingly fun
    • OA
      Oliver A.
      13 June 2020 @ 00:25
      He's an A+ troll, but I think he's treating this more real than he's joking.
  • CR
    Cory R.
    13 June 2020 @ 00:11
    Finally the Friday daily Briefing is here.. I am enjoying it immensely with a Carlsberg beer in hand. Thanks gents for the thoughts and the laughs. Cheers from Vancouver!
  • SF
    Stephen F.
    12 June 2020 @ 23:56
    Excellent Real Vision Daily Briefing. Wisdom during a time of great uncertainty.
  • jg
    jesse g.
    12 June 2020 @ 23:52
    Absolutely love the interview. I'm all aboard the $DXY strengthening camp. I can't understand a way around it. Anyway, thank you Jack, Raoul, and Ed! The knowledge is priceless!
  • DS
    David S.
    12 June 2020 @ 23:41
    The CBs may take over all the large banking. Since it is taxpayer’s money bailing out Wall Street each time, this may be a good thing. The countries that work hard at keeping local banks lending to small to medium size business will keep capitalism going - Professor Werner. They will prosper in the long run. Unfortunately, in the short run, I am in bunker mode. DLS
  • pm
    patryk m.
    12 June 2020 @ 23:41
    /biz and r/wallstreetbets moving equity markets, macro will be next you saw it first here.
  • RB
    Roger B.
    12 June 2020 @ 23:33
    re. blindspots . Would really appreciate RV tackling the question of higher bond yields. Generally, expect bond yields to fall potentially to zero or negative but the action of the last two weeks suggests a possibility of higher yields, at least on a 6-18 month horizon. Would be nice to hear a discussion on signposts and signals to monitor that would forewarn of higher yields.
    • AN
      Andrew N.
      12 June 2020 @ 23:39
      Related to the question of bond yields is inflation/deflation. I've seen reports in the last few days that prices, or certain things, are falling, while I seen reports that other prices are going up. It would be great to discuss these data, in light of all the speculation RV has been doing on this.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    12 June 2020 @ 23:36
    Excellent update Jack!
  • MD
    Mohamed D.
    12 June 2020 @ 23:26
    These interviews are Gold!
  • AN
    Andrew N.
    12 June 2020 @ 23:25
    Great conversation, guys. You're doing a great job trying to synthesize a lot of very complex data to present a coherent view.
  • NL
    Nicholas L.
    12 June 2020 @ 23:14
    Good job ed
  • MT
    Mark T.
    12 June 2020 @ 23:01
    Easier said than done given the frenetic pace of things these days, but important to remember that over the course of human history, it takes time and patience to get ahead and stay there.
  • MK
    Michael K.
    12 June 2020 @ 22:52
    I’m enjoying these daily segments more than I expected. I value you taking time at the end of the day for your work, and I agree with the “ride your bike” and just get out there acknowledgment on this Friday afternoon.