Daily Briefing – June 17, 2020

Published on
June 17th, 2020
Duration
29 minutes


Daily Briefing – June 17, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Peter Cooper, Ash Bennington, and Thomas Thornton

Published on: June 17th, 2020 • Duration: 29 minutes

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to discuss the latest in markets, macro, and coronavirus. Thornton argues that the need for intervention in repo markets starting back in the fall of 2019 indicated that the market wasn't healthy going into the coronavirus shutdown— and that if it was, the level of stimulus markets have received would’ve been unnecessary. Thornton also talks about how the market is currently too hot and what the risks are for speculators going forward. In the intro, Peter Cooper discusses how companies are issuing debt at extreme levels and how that bodes ill considering how coronavirus is still a major tail risk.

Comments

Transcript

  • AL
    Alberto L.
    18 June 2020 @ 17:52
    I find surprising that individuals like Thornton are still presented around. A failed HF manager with an horrible track record. His recent work on his website has been much below par. After calling correctly the correction in 2018 he missed completely the run in 2019 and bull markets such in gold or bonds. This is not a personal note but reality, he being negative is probably a great contrarian call. Pls interview real professionals and not just follow twitter accounts with a high number of followers as the the person above. thank you.
    • DP
      Dan P.
      18 June 2020 @ 19:02
      if someone with a trading set up like that is often wrong, what hope do we all have? Here on my 2011 macbook air...
    • SJ
      Sy J.
      19 June 2020 @ 01:58
      Tommy is down 125% in his Tsla short. He loses considerable credibility for how he managed that position.
  • NC
    Nathan C.
    18 June 2020 @ 23:31
    Hi Deb
  • PC
    Peter C.
    18 June 2020 @ 11:15
    Most people believe that the fed does everything in its power (and beyond) to support the market. The fed steps up whenever weakness brings the market down, sometimes in a very shrewd manner at exactly the right moment. If you follow that narrative, it is only logical that they will expand their facilities at some point to include equity buying if the current facilities are not sufficient to do the trick. So new lows or even just big correction are almost impossible. I have a different view. I think the fed is in practice very reactive to stresses in the system. There is no master plan to bid up the market although they might like the side effect of their actions. Last week gave me clear example: repo activity started to explode but when the fed announced the corporate bond buying facility repo stresses disappeared immediately the days after. I suspect that big market participants had to sell equity holdings because of a lack of liquidity in the bond market. This sudden lack of liquidity was probably a result of the sudden self off in long dated treasuries bonds, putting selling pressure on the bond market. That sudden sell off was fueled by hedge funds speculating on a yield curve steepening. So the fed jumped in to solve the liquidity issue. To the outside this looks like another timely trick to solve the market dip, so the market went back to 'risk on'. It would be nice if Roger could dig in to this a bit more when he is back. As an investor it is critical to understand the actions of the fed. If the fed is reactive and basically trying to fill the holes and addressing liquidity stresses, it is not a given that the 'fed put' will always be there. A policy error or an action to safe parts of the system at the expense of the market becomes a possibility.
    • DS
      David S.
      18 June 2020 @ 15:55
      I suspect hedge funds make very large bets since they feel the Fed will cover any liquidity problems that might go against them. DLS
  • RM
    Robert M.
    18 June 2020 @ 03:50
    People have got to start realizing that Portnoy is just playing a role. He has no long term plans to be a trader. He is just filling a gap until sports are back online. This is his shtick.
    • JB
      James B.
      18 June 2020 @ 13:08
      The guy is a marketing genius in my opinion. His whole business (sports) gets canned does he sit in the corner and cry? No he has massively expanded his brand, got more followers and practically turned himself into a household name seemingly overnight. Nothing but respect for the guy, and hes definitely playing it up.
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      18 June 2020 @ 13:50
      yeah 100% agreed. I love watching sports and there are a few sports I follow pretty closely but I have 0 interest in sports betting (despite having friends that do it regularly). I probably would never have ever ever come across Portnoy if he didn't get into the stock market. He is a marketing genius
  • OM
    Owen M.
    18 June 2020 @ 13:06
    Great guest! I enjoy Tom's commentary. And I need to up my monitor game...damn. Thanks RV, Ash, and Peter. Keep up the great work.
  • PC
    Peter C.
    18 June 2020 @ 01:33
    REALLY LOVE TOM'S EQUITY TRADE SPECIFICS (FINALLY... :) & CANDOR. FOR EXAMPLES, THE UPCOMING SIZE & LOPSIDEDNESS OF THIS FRIDAY'S TRIPLE WITCHING EXPIRATION'S & RISK ON THE SHORT OPTION SIDE; DON'T USE NASDAQ TO HEDGE YOUR LONGS; AAPL IS OVERVALUED,... THANK YOU & REALLY HAPPY WITH RVTV'S UPPING THEIR CORONA GAME & NOT JUST CORONA HAIR CUTS HAHA
    • MT
      Mike T.
      18 June 2020 @ 13:05
      Mr Thornton's comment " if you're short call or puts" [going in to Fridays expiry] it could go against you pretty hard..." he's right, but anybody with even half a brain cell that trades short premium option strategies will be been long gone, typically either closing the position or rolling out out in time to next monthly cycle at approx 3 weeks prior to DTE. This simple step avoids a ton of risk, mitigates Gamma risk etc. and is pretty much rule #1 for short premium option traders
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    17 June 2020 @ 23:42
    Uneasy. That seems to be the theme of the month, or longer, here on RV. Clearly, the Fed is doing a lot to prop up the market, but can they really keep it propped up? For how long? The normal feedback loops have been disabled, or at least overwhelmed for the moment, but I don't see any way this can be stable or durable. I have no clue at the moment what might cause the various bubbles to pop, but as I read a few months ago, it's not the size of the pin that matters, but the size of the bubble. I don't know what is happening with the Robinhoodies, but I suspect the drop last week may have scared them a bit as well. And it should have. Markets don't just go up. But if they start to panic in mass, I think they will find that markets can go down a lot faster than they have gone up, and this has been a very rapid rise. I hope I'm wrong, but I have some protective puts that will at least cushion my position, in case I'm right.
    • PC
      Paul C.
      18 June 2020 @ 12:53
      I think at some point the penny will drop in the market that the Fed is doing all this because of how bad the underlying economy is. They will see past the liquidity positives( i use that loosely) and look closer. It does kinda feel that way now. That it might just be turning..
  • MT
    Mike T.
    18 June 2020 @ 12:52
    to quote Mr Thornton " if you're short call or puts" [going in to Fridays expiry] it could go against you pretty hard..." Anybody with even half a brain cell that trades short premium option strategies would have been long gone - typically either closing or rolling out out in time at approx 3 weeks prior to DTE. This simple step avoids a ton of risk, mitigates Gamma risk etc.
  • AS
    Ash S.
    18 June 2020 @ 12:45
    So good! Please be a regular!
  • TE
    Tielman E.
    18 June 2020 @ 01:49
    Peter Cooper, loved watching this just for your piece :) Good going. More please!
    • GC
      Gino C.
      18 June 2020 @ 01:51
      Peter rocks!
    • PC
      Peter C. | Real Vision
      18 June 2020 @ 12:35
      Thank you for the feedback!
  • MH
    Martin H.
    18 June 2020 @ 01:47
    Peter's twitter handle?
    • AH
      Attila H.
      18 June 2020 @ 07:38
      @iAmPeterCooper
    • PC
      Peter C. | Real Vision
      18 June 2020 @ 12:34
      Yes, my Twitter handle is @iAmPeterCooper
  • ml
    michael l.
    18 June 2020 @ 01:53
    Enjoyed the piece. That said, I disagree about the Fed - the Fed of yesteryear would have refrained from easing/tightening in the months leading into an election. I don't see this Fed being restrained by that - they will do anything and everything to prop up markets, even going so far as to buy equities (my "price target" is SPX 2500 on that) and announcing that in the Fall if conditions so merit it in their eyes.
    • MG
      Marcus G.
      18 June 2020 @ 11:59
      I have read that the TGA-account of the treasury stands at 0.8 Trillion at the moment. Thus, they may not need the FED to ease into the election, they (US Government) have a full war-chest to create some nice fireworks to lift st.ocks...sorry... the economy before the election. It looking forward how the PR experts spin the spending-spree for maximum voter impact.
  • MN
    Marcus N.
    18 June 2020 @ 11:07
    Wonderful interview as usual Ash! Sorry if this comment has nothing to do with the greater conversation. But does anyone know what kind of monitor set up is that Tommy has? They’re huge!! Did he turn those monitors vertical?
  • RK
    Robert K.
    18 June 2020 @ 10:34
    Very nice. Thank you. Speak more to real dudes like Tommy!
  • TN
    Tim N.
    18 June 2020 @ 08:09
    Another great video RV :):) How many bazookas does the Fed realistically have in their back pocket?? Many times I find myself thinking "long is the way and hard...." Super critical weeks and months ahead.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    18 June 2020 @ 07:28
    This is my first comment and I want to say: please bring Thomas Thornton again. Splendid!
  • DS
    David S.
    18 June 2020 @ 06:24
    This was a great variation from the normal daily briefing. Lots of useful and relevant information. Thanks for switching things up and have Thomas T on.
  • CM
    Colin M.
    18 June 2020 @ 05:25
    Plexiglass domes in restaurants - Sounds like "Get Smart" cone of silence !
  • GB
    Griffin B.
    18 June 2020 @ 01:04
    Little confused here..what does the call expiration date coming up have to do with slowing bids on the stock?
    • sk
      saner k.
      18 June 2020 @ 02:19
      if they dont rollover to new ones, may be a sign of weak demand for SP and money goes to bonds or somewhere else perhaps ?
    • GB
      Griffin B.
      18 June 2020 @ 05:24
      Read “somewhere else” as BTC 👀
  • AB
    Alastair B.
    18 June 2020 @ 04:10
    What are the little white boxes flashing up in the bottom left corner in this video? It looks like subliminal advertising
  • PT
    Paul T.
    18 June 2020 @ 03:18
    Both Peter and Tom were excellent! I’d love to see more of Tom and Ash or Ed in the future.
  • DS
    David S.
    18 June 2020 @ 00:37
    Good intro Mr. Cooper. Since most legitimate companies understand solvency issues, I believe the ever increasing corporate debt should be looked at as corporate bridge loans for survival. The stock market may think the pandemic is subsiding, but corporations are in a life and death situation. If businesses are looking for ways to save money during the pandemic, they will reduce fixed costs like rent. As discussed before, a restaurant or bar might survive if the rent expense is one half or lower. The landlord is a partner. If the restaurant closes who will rent the property at the former full price? It is going to be a hard time all the way around. DLS
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      18 June 2020 @ 02:55
      That's a really good point. I think this will be another factor that will cause a contraction in the Australian property market
  • SP
    Simone P.
    18 June 2020 @ 00:52
    Great episode, thank you. The stock market feels very much like crypto in 2017. There's no way it's gonna end well.
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      18 June 2020 @ 02:51
      yeah 100% agreed. The Crypto 2017 bubble was my first experience with market bubbles but twitter looks exactly like what crypto twitter was like back in 2017. When you hear Dave Pourtnoy telling his followers the only rule for day trading is that "Stocks only ever go up". Then he's putting out videos with him saying he put $200K into a stock but doesn't even know why he bought it or what the company actually does. Then remembers that he went on a date with some girl who recently started doing research on companies and recons its a good stock to buy. You know the bubble is getting close to popping. But having said that he is entertaining AF and he knows how to draw a crowd.
  • mB
    marc B.
    18 June 2020 @ 01:38
    I follow Tom on Twitter. Didn’t know his a friend of rv. Makes sense. Great insight on options this Friday & market in general.
    • DG
      Dave G.
      18 June 2020 @ 02:05
      I like Tom but I'm really not a fan of the demark system he preaches. Really don't see any predictive market power at all with it.
  • DS
    David S.
    18 June 2020 @ 00:17
    Good practical Daily Briefing. Since I agree with Mr. Thornton's outlook, it was reinforcing to a point. I like the comment about the big banks over reserving. I hope it turns out to be true and the current recession is not as bad as they expected. The only real factor is the spread of COVID-19. It is sad about the young man that was in over his head. I am sure there are many more gambling who have no idea of the downside. Hopefully, they will just declare bankruptcy like everyone else and start afresh. DLS
    • RT
      Richard T.
      18 June 2020 @ 01:50
      Looks like a good time to go-long on morticians and bankruptcy lawyers.
  • DG
    Dave G.
    18 June 2020 @ 01:50
    If the fed is "on hold" for the election why have the done anything this year? Seems to me saving stonks is a way to reelect Trump.
  • MH
    Martin H.
    18 June 2020 @ 01:49
    It would be a nice idea to post social media info like twitter handles etc, where suitable, for the guests you have.
  • AT
    ALAN T.
    18 June 2020 @ 01:28
    Really good.
  • RK
    Ron K.
    18 June 2020 @ 00:00
    Nice show today. We getting Roger back?
    • J
      Jim .
      18 June 2020 @ 00:26
      Tommy was a great guest for sure and I appreciated his sober tone. Just curious to Ron’s question regarding when Roger will be back? Thanks
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      18 June 2020 @ 00:59
      Yep! He's just on vacation.
  • OT
    Omar T.
    17 June 2020 @ 23:17
    when he says he doesn't put more than 5% in any one position, it mean he would need 20 uncorrelated positions. Are there that many uncorrelated assets out there?
    • DS
      David S.
      18 June 2020 @ 00:21
      Great question. I assume that many would be lower correlations. It would be great if Mr. Thornton would respond to your question. DLS
  • CB
    Chris B.
    17 June 2020 @ 23:45
    Nice to hear from someone that trades and has skin in the game; More please and thank you
  • pp
    peng p.
    17 June 2020 @ 23:40
    anyone knows what is the significance of the 2.8 trillion S&P500 futures contract expires and the cash index, he is referring to?
  • BK
    Brian K.
    17 June 2020 @ 23:31
    Solid guest. Good at building on answers to certain questions.
  • TB
    Tobin B.
    17 June 2020 @ 23:21
    Enjoyed this one thanks
  • MD
    Matt D.
    17 June 2020 @ 23:21
    Great interview Ash and Mr Thornton. Really liked him - especially the fact he mentioned the expiry coming on Friday.
  • DS
    David S.
    17 June 2020 @ 23:17
    If you close your eyes and listen to Tommy, he's almost a ringer for a younger Steve Jobs....freaked me out lol
  • AK
    Adam K.
    17 June 2020 @ 22:57
    This bloke needs a strong cup of coffee before his next real vision feature lol
    • MK
      Michael K.
      17 June 2020 @ 23:05
      Eh kind of a lame comment. It’s a dead summer markets day there’s only so much excitement. Tommy is a decent guy. I’m not a subscriber of his but he actually provides legit twitter content for free and is rigorous, creative, and regularly admits his limitations and faults and clarifies his process. I’m a fan. Ty for showing up today.
    • OA
      Oliver A.
      17 June 2020 @ 23:16
      I think I can deeply relate to Thomas' energy right now
  • WM
    William M.
    17 June 2020 @ 22:56
    the biggest contrast between this bubble and the Internet one is that the Fed was fighting that bubble with repeated interest rate increases etc. The Fed is actually trying to blow this bubble bigger and bigger. And it's created invincible stock and bond markets.....whenever they falter, the Fed just ups the stimulus and rhetoric etc. Definitely don't fight the Fed on this.....but at some point even this super bubble will burst ... and then watch out below...
  • WM
    William M.
    17 June 2020 @ 22:50
    awesome intro, Peter!
  • MT
    Mark T.
    17 June 2020 @ 22:42
    I like this guy. Although I'm bearish, so not sure if it's just confirmation bias that is appealing to me.
  • OT
    Omar T.
    17 June 2020 @ 22:23
    I would like a chart for demand for suitcases :)